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Barclays Warns Hurricane Irma Damage Could Be ‘Largest Ever’ – Insurance Co’s Spiral

Tue Sep 5, 2017 2:51pm EST 5

With winds topping 180 mph, Category 5 Hurricane Irma has been deemed the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record – which, writes Barclays, could hit southern Florida early next week. Evacuation orders have been issued to the Keys.

“We think Irma’s insured damage in Florida could be the largest ever in the US perhaps equivalent to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 ($50bn on an inflation-adjusted basis). In a worst case scenario, catastrophe modelers AIR Worldwide and Karen Clark and Co. have estimated a repeat of the 1926 Miami hurricane could result in $125-130bn of insured damage.”

This is substantially higher than the mostly uninsured property affected in Texas by hurricane Harvey, and has sent the S&P Property & Casualty Insurer Index tumbling.

ZeroHedge

Via CNBC:

Stock prices of home insurers tied to Florida plunged Tuesday after Irma strengthened into a Category 5 storm. This latest storm system follows Harvey, which dumped several feet of rain, destroyed thousands of homes and killed over 50 people in a matter of days.

Shares of HCI Group, Universal Insurance Holdings, and Heritage Insurance Holdings, which provide property and casualty homeowners insurance in the Sunshine State, were down 13, 16, and 13 percent, respectively.

Reinsurers XL Group and Everest contributed some of the largest losses to the S&P 500’s decline, down 5 and 4 percent, respectively.

Barclay’s Jay Gelb writes:

“We would view Irma as more of a risk to the traditional reinsurers as well as third-party providers of reinsurance capital than the primary commercial insurers and personal lines insurers based on the industry’s long-standing view that Florida poses substantial windstorm risk. Of the companies we cover, reinsurers expected to have among the largest exposures to a Florida hurricane could include RE, XL, VR, RNR, and AHL. Among primary commercial insurers, we would expect AIG to have among the largest exposure.”
Update: 
Universal Insurance highlights the previously announced placement of its 2017-2018 reinsurance programs (effective June 1, 2017)  
  • As publicly disclosed at the time, UPCIC has a net retention of $35 million per catastrophe event for losses incurred, in all states, up to a first event loss of $2.65 billion. In addition, under an excess catastrophe contract specifically covering risks located outside the state of Florida and intended to further reduce UPCIC’s $35 million net retention, UPCIC has obtained catastrophe coverage of $30 million in excess of $5 million covering certain loss occurrences, including hurricanes, in states outside of Florida.
  • In certain circumstances involving a catastrophic event impacting both Florida and other states, UPCIC’s retention could result in pre-tax net liability as low as $5 million — the $35 million net retention under the all states reinsurance program could be offset by as much as $30 million in coverage under the other states reinsurance program. These retention amounts are gross of any potential tax benefit the Company would receive in paying such losses. UPCIC’s statutory surplus as of June 30, 2017 was $351 million.

To top it off, gulf residents will be dealing with Jose next…

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WH Source: Sessions’ ‘Amazing’ DACA Speech Rocks The Left

Tue Sep 5, 2017 1:07pm EST 6

AG Jeff Sessions announced that the Trump administration is ending the Obama-era DACA program, stating “We cannot admit everyone who would like to come here. That is an open border policy and the American people have rightly rejected it… it’s just that simple.”

Axios reports a White House source said Sessions gave an ‘amazing’ press conference which rocked the left.

Key excerpts from his statement:

  • “The executive branch, through DACA, deliberately sought to achieve what the legislative branch specifically refused to authorize… such an open-ended circumvention of immigration laws was an unconstitutional exercise of authority.”
  • “The nation must set and enforce a limit on how many immigrants we admit each year and that means all can not be accepted.
The reaction, per a source close to the White House: “In one amazing press conference, Jeff Sessions lit up the entire institutional left, the mainstream media and probably caused a couple tears to hit the floor from some West Wing Democrats.”
And yes, the butthurt is strong;

Let’s see if Hurricane Irma and Jose can wag the dog on this one…

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Trump Tax Overhaul Progressing, Cohn Wants Before End Of Year For 2018 Midterm Campaigns

Mon Sep 4, 2017 8:25pm EST 6

Politico reports that the Trump team and congressional leaders, who have nicknamed themselves the ‘Big 6,’ are making ‘significant strides’ in overhauling the U.S. tax code beyond the six-paragraph framework presented in July, the goal being to push tax reform through before the end of 2017 in advance of 2018 midterm campaigns.

“We’ve got a great, I would say, ‘skeleton’ for tax reform.” –Gary Cohn, Director National Economic Council

The buts and bolts are said to include: 

  • Capping the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners
  • Eliminating the ability for people to deduct state and local taxes
  • Eliminating the ability for businesses to deduct interest
  • Allowing small businesses to deduct investments such as new equipment or facilities
  • A corporate tax rate in the 22 – 25% range (higher than the 15% Trump wants)
  • Possibly taxing 401(k) contributions up front – an idea which would raise billions of dollars in the short term
  • Mandatory repatriation of corporate cash held offshore at a low tax rate

“Yes, we will be open to losing tax revenues in these early years,” Kevin Brady, chairman of the Way and Means Committee, said at a tax event at Ronald Reagan’s California ranch.

It is unclear whether or not the suggested cuts will be permanent, or temporary with a sunset provision similar to many of the cuts signed into law by President George W. Bush in 2001 and 2003 – only to be made permanent by President Obama in 2012.

“A mix of permanent and temporary cuts could, on paper, look to the budget scorers like something that would not add to the deficit over the typical 10-year window and would allow politicians more cover to pass such a package.” –Politico

Hurry up! 

One of the few things Republicans agree on when it comes to the Trump agenda is the need for tax reform. Via Politico: 

Republicans want the fall to be all about taxes, if they can help it. It seems like their best and perhaps only route toward a major legislative victory before the fever of the 2018 midterm elections takes hold.

“People are feeling optimistic because they do not see failure as an option. They’ve put all of their eggs in one basket now, and that basket is tax reform,” said one source familiar with the administration’s tax talks. “The fear of failure on this will cause people to agree with things they may not normally agree to.”

The White House has reportedly created a ‘mini war-room’ inside of its existing communications shop to address taxes, in which Comms director Hope Hicks and Treasury official Tony Sayhegh will team up to sell the plan to the public.

“The question now is whether this is becoming more of a policy pursuit or a political success,” said one Republican close to the administration. “Now, it looks like the latter. The president campaigned on signing the biggest tax cut in history, and he’s on track to do that for the middle class even if he has a compressed time frame to get it done.”

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Emmanuel Macron’s MP Nearly Kills Man With Motorcycle Helmet After Being Called ‘Dirty Arab’

Mon Sep 4, 2017 7:15pm EST 6

French socialist politician Boris Faure is fighting for his life in an ICU after a bloody brawl with one of Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche! MP’s, M’jid El Guerrab in central Paris. Faure reportedly called Guerrab a ‘dirty arab,’ who then hopped off his scooter and proceeded to hit Faure over the head twice with his helmet after a brief exchange of words.

Via Express.co.uk

An eyewitness told the French magazine Marianne they saw M’jid El Guerrab, a centrist MP, hop off his scooter to talk to the Socialist before beating him to a pulp.

What started off as a war of words “quickly escalated into fisticuffs”, the eyewitness is reported as saying, adding Mr El Guerrab had grabbed hold of his helmet before “violently” hitting Mr Faure in the head with it.

Mr. Guerrab, who left the Socialist party to join Macron’s En Marche last year, has taken a leave of absence from the party. Mr. Faure, first secretary of the Federation of Foreigners of the Socialist Party, managed the campaign of the candidate who beat Mr. El Guerrab in the recent French parliamentary elections – undoubtedly fueling discord between the two men.

Via Independent: 

Mr Faure collapsed and was later taken to hospital where he was operated on and spent five days recovering in intensive care.

Mr El Guerrab was placed in custody after an investigation into “aggravated violence”. His lawyer Yassine Yakouti said: “Mr El Guerrab naturally regrets the turn of events.”

On Facebook, Mr El Guerrab announced he was taking leave of absence from En Marche! (LREM) “to allow the inquiry to proceed… I hope that Mr Faure will be able to recover quickly.”

Mr. Faure’s family and friends have denied Mr. Guerrab’s claim of being called a ‘dirty Arab,’ calling it ‘laughable and insulting.’

 

 

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Dreamers Hosed – Trump Rumored To end DACA Tuesday

Mon Sep 4, 2017 12:11am EST 7

President Trump is set to end the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which grants work permits to illegal immigrants who entered to the U.S. as children. A meeting of senor West Wing aides was held Sunday to discuss the mechanics of rolling back the program, which will include a six-month delay acording to two White House leakers who spoke with Politico.

Via Politico

Trump has wrestled for months with whether to do away with the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, known as DACA. But conversations with Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who argued that Congress — rather than the executive branch — is responsible for writing immigration law, helped persuade the president to terminate the program and kick the issue to Congress, the two sources said.

In a nod to reservations held by many lawmakers, the White House plans to delay the enforcement of the president’s decision for six months, giving Congress a window to act, according to one White House official. But a senior White House aide said that chief of staff John Kelly, who has been running the West Wing policy process on the issue, “thinks Congress should’ve gotten its act together a lot longer ago.”

Surely they won’t use the home addresses of hundreds of thousands of trusting illegals who handed their info over to the Obama administration.

On the bright side, ending DACA stands to free up 700,000 jobs for U.S. citizens over the next two years, according to a pro-immigration lobbying group funded by Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg.

Liberals are a veritable salt mine right now…

Meanwhile Twitter bots are lighting up left and left.

Not everyone is upset, however…

 

 

 

 

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Japan Reignites Preemptive-Strike Debate As North Korea Lights Off Another Nuke

Sun Sep 3, 2017 7:44pm EST 2

Japan, which is really good at attacking first, has been mulling whether or not to prepare for a preemptive strike on North Korea following Kim Jong Un’s ICBM test last Tuesday which traversed Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean, followed by their largest nuclear test to date last night.

In March, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sparked a parliamentary debate over whether or not to acquire the ‘capabilities’ for a preemptive strike, which they’re calling a ‘strike-back’ to avoid violating their constitution. When Abe’s idea failed to gain support, the debate fizzled and the topic was dropped. That all changed in the last week.

Via WaPo:

A pre-emptive strike, by Japanese definition, is a step preceding the two-tier defense. Cruise missiles, such as Tomahawk, fired from Aegis destroyers or fighter jets would get the enemy missile clearly waiting to be fired, or just after blastoff from a North Korean launch site, before it approaches Japan.

Japan’s self-defense-only principle under the country’s war-renouncing constitution prohibits its military from making a first strike, and officials discussing a limited pre-emptive strike are calling it a “strike-back” instead.

Kim’s latest firecracker

 

North Korea lit off their sixth and largest nuclear test to date last night, picked up by seismic stations all over the world. Notably, their previous tests were around the size of the Hiroshima / Nagasaki bombs – around 20-22 kilotons, while this test of a presumed hydrogen bomb is estimated in the hundreds of kt. 

“That’s very roughly the equivalent 100,000 tons of TNT. Maybe its 20% smaller, maybe 30% larger,” says James Acton, a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (npr)

Trump Tweets, U.N. Freaks, Mattis Speaks

Trump is talking massive shit over Twitter, now that Kim Jong Un has laughed off Trump’s prior tough talk.

Mad Dog Mattis Barks Back

In response to the North Korean nuclear test, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis said ‘we are not looking for the annihilation of North Korea – we have many options,’ adding that ‘any threat’ against U.S. teritory or U.S. allies will be met with a ‘massive military response.‘ 

UN Security Council to meet Monday

Via The Guardian:

The UN Security Council has scheduled an emergency meeting after North Korea conducted its most powerful nuclear test to date, the Associated Press reports:

The U.S., Japan, France, Britain and South Korea requested Monday’s meeting after North Korea detonated what it called a hydrogen bomb.

It will be the Security Council’s second urgent session in under a week on the North’s weapons tests, which have continued in the face of a series of sanctions.

After North Korea launched a ballistic missile over Japan, the council Tuesday strongly condemned the test and reiterated demands that Pyongyang halt its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.

Monday could bring additional condemnation and discussion of other potential steps.

Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned Sunday’s nuclear test. His spokesman calls it “profoundly destabilizing for regional security.”

 

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N. Korea Begging For War After Announcing New Hydrogen Bomb With ‘Great Destructive Power’

Sat Sep 2, 2017 6:30pm EST 11

Kim Jong Un has gone full honeybadger in terms of shits given about U.S. threats over North Korea’s nuclear arsenal – announcing the development of a ‘more advanced’ high altitude nuke that has ‘great destructive power’ in the range of hundreds of kilotons – far outmatching the 20 kiloton bomb dropped at Nagasaki, and said that they can crank out a high volume of similar devices.

Under its leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea has pursued work on building nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles that can deliver them at an unprecedented pace, defying U.N. sanctions and international pressure. –Reuters

North Korea’s state-run KCNA reports “Kim Jong-un said he felt the pride at the indomitably bolstering up of [North Korea’s] nuclear forces despite a great price as he watched the Juche-oriented thermonuclear weapon with super explosive power made by our own efforts and technology. He expressed great satisfaction over the fact that our scientists can do anything without fail if the party is determined to do.”

Shit talkin’ into WWIII

Early Saturday, Kim threw major shade at President Trump, stating that “any attempt by the puppets to detect and destroy our TELs in advance is nothing but a silly dream,” then adding “The puppets in South Korea will never avoid catastrophes as long as they continue to run amok.”

Kim then said that North Korea’s strategic weapons were “ready to thoroughly annhilate the strongholds of aggression and provocation from any unpredictable region and place anytime.”

Testing, testing

North Korea has conducted a total of five nuclear tests between 2006 and 2016, and has conducted 18 missiles during 12 tests so far in 2017 – including Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) they claim are capable of reaching “anywhere in the world” (not exactly).

For more:

 

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Imran Awan Pleads ‘Not Guilty,’ Wants Ankle GPS Taken Off For Nonexistent Uber Job

Sat Sep 2, 2017 5:44pm EST 2

 

Former U.S. House ‘shared employee’ Imran Awan pleaded ‘not guilty’ to a Federal judge on Friday to charges that he and his wife, Hina Alvi, lied on an application for a home equity loan they wired most of out of the country.

Awan’s attorney, Chris Gowen – former aide of Bill and Hillary Clinton, asked that Awan’s GPS ankle bracelet be removed, telling the court that Imran may need to attend an emergency with his children – who are in Pakistan.

“His ability to parent, which may well be single parenting, if there is an emergency…” Gowen said, failing to explain the discrepancy.

Gowen also claimed that Awan needs the bracelet removed because he has been driving for Uber, and needs restrictions on his movement to be lifted. According to the Daily Caller, however, Uber has no record of Imran Awan (or the various other names he is known by) driving for the company.

Via the Daily Caller: 

Prosecutor Michael Marando opposed the motions, saying Imran is a severe flight risk. “From Day 1 there was a pattern of flight. It began September 2016… a pattern of transfers to Pakistan, hundreds of thousands of dollars,” he said. The judge has not ruled on the motion.

Awan was caught trying to flee the country a day after the Daily Caller reported that smashed computer equipment found in a rental home owned by the Awans was turned over to the FBI.

Interestingly, federal prosecutors hinted at a larger investigation beyond the fraudulent loan application to a Capitol Hill credit union – describing in a letter ‘voluminous discovery, of items found in a Congressional office building back in April – including a laptop used by Awan.

The inclusion of the ‘hard drive, which was recovered from the Longworth House Office Building’ is significant. Recall in May when Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz browbeat the Chief of D.C. Capitol Police for three minutes during a budget planning meeting, threatening him with ‘consequences’ if a certain laptop was not turned over – ostensibly the one recovered in April.

During the exchange, Wasserman Schultz asserts that the laptop is hers – and since she isn’t under investigation, the police should return it. “We can’t return the equipment” responded Chief Matthew Verderosa, to which Wasserman Schultz replied “I think you’re violating the rules when you conduct your business that way and you should expect that there will be consequences.”

 

It will be interesting to see what prosecutors find on that laptop, considering all of the congressional Democrats the Awans worked for – including those on U.S. intelligence committees discussing highly classified information.

Here’s a handy chart of who the various Awans worked for:

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Google Threatens Alt-Right Site’s Ad Revenue Over Single Article

Fri Sep 1, 2017 2:15pm EST 12

Google threatened alt-right website “The Liberty Conservative” Tuesday evening, warning them if they didn’t remove a specific article from the internet, the site would be deprived of all ad revenues from the Google platform.

Alt-right youtube personality James Allsup – who was famously hit in the head during the inaugural ‘Deploraball’ by Antifa thugs – was a speaker at the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, VA a few weeks back, which ended in tragedy after a white supremacist drove his 2010 dodge challenger into a crowd of counter-protesters, killing one. A police helicopter flying overhead also crashed during the event, killing two on board.

Allsup, who stepped down as president of Washington State University’s college republican chapter two days after the rally, penned an article for The Liberty Conservative in November of 2016 in which he argues the differences between white supremacists and the Alt-right.

In a nutshell, he wrote that that race realism (differences between races, such as IQ and physical features) and white nationalism (establishment of a protected white ethnostate analogous to an ‘Israel for whites’ – as espoused by Richard Spencer) differ from white supremacy in that the first two are based on scientific data and a political objective – while white supremacists ‘believe, often without citing data or factual evidence, that white people are “just better.”

Allsup says that to understand the alt-right, ‘it is necessary to understand each of these distinct concepts,’ adding ‘Many young people, especially young men, have flocked to the alt-right because of its universal rejection of feminism and PC culture and strong embrace of masculinity and tradition.’

“White men in this country are tired of being blamed for every failure and hardship experienced by women and minorities. Does this make them alt-right? Not necessarily, but possibly. Does it make them a white supremacist or a white nationalist? Certainly not.”

“There are very few white supremacists within the alt-right itself. White supremacy as an ideology has largely disappeared from the United States, and is mostly being kept in the news by the media itself and the largely irrelevant Ku Klux Klan, which had a membership of between 1.4 and 4 million members at one point, but is now down to only 5,000 to 8,000 members.”

Whatever one thinks of Allsup’s argument, or lack thereof, the fact that Google summarily decided that The Liberty Conservative would lose all ad revenue if they didn’t remove the article sets a chilling precedent.

Shane Trejo, media relations director of the Republican Liberty Caucus of Michigan responded in the Liberty Conservative: “Either we were to remove a particular article or see all of our ad revenues choked off in an instant. This is the newest method that Big Brother is using to enforce thought control.”

Via PJMedia:

The Liberty Conservative writer suggested that the article was singled out because it was written by former Liberty Conservative contributor James Allsup. Allsup was involved in the “Unite the Right” riot (which Trejo described as a “rally-turned-riot”) in Charlottesville, Va. Trejo said the article was targeted because “it was authored by a man deemed to be an ‘unperson’ by the corporate elite.”

Google policy

While Allsup’s article may be offensive to some, do you think Google has threatened Huffington Post with warnings and takedown notices for any of the anti-white articles they’ve published?

How about Salon, using this guy’s Chrome extension?

Just replace the word “white” with “black” and ask yourself if it’s content that ‘promotes discrimination on the basis of race.’ 

Will Google issue takedown notices to Salon or any of the other liberal rags for their clearly anti-white bias?

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Get Ready To $MAGA With New Pro-Trump, Pro-Republican ETF

Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:39pm EST 13

Texas investment firm Point Bridge Capital will be launching a pro-GOP / Pro-Trump ETF under the symbol $MAGA, available for purchase September 7. Per the Daily Caller, the fund will “invest in stocks that are highly supportive of federal Republican candidates including President Donald Trump.”

Founder Hal Lambert, CFA is a former Director at Credit Suisse, and was a Portfolio Manager at J.P. Morgan before that. He’s currently managing over $1 billion at Point Bridge.

During the 2016 election, he was a huge fundraiser for the Republican Party, throwing his support behind Ted Cruz as his finance co-chair – though he was reluctant to get behind Trump, who he hated, until later in the campaign.

So, he may have appropriated “MAGA” despite his former(?) status as a Never-Trumper, but Hal wants to make YOU money!

Via Daily Caller:

The ETF strategy starts with stocks in the S&P 500 and analyzes the political contributions of the employees and the company PACs. The top 150 Republican stocks based on their contribution data are then included in the ETF. Lambert, a major Texas Republican fundraiser, refers to the approach as “politically responsible investing.”

Lambert told TheDC the top five Republican contributors in the past two election cycles were: AT&T, Marathon Petroleum, Home Depot, Exxon Mobil, and Altria. “All of those stocks will be in the ETF,” Lambert said.

The top five Democrat contributors were: Alphabet (Google), Time Warner, Walt Disney, Apple, and Dish Network.

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