After getting smoked in recent French primary exit polls, ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy has avoided “lé nut stuffing” by Marine Le Pen, withdrawing from the race for the French Presidency. In a move which significantly ups Le Pen’s chances of #FREXIT, Sarkozy has thrown support behind stupid faced Francois Fillon – undermining The Republicans assumed front runner Alain Juppé, mayor of Bordeaux.
This could get interesting for the markets. Based on Trump’s victory, a Le Pen ascension should be good for at least a Costanzian kneejerk rally, but there are major implications over the long haul. If you’re not familiar with the economic policies of the National Front – founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen (Marine Le Pen’s father), feast your eyes:
“The party’s economic policy shifted from the 1980s to the 1990s from neoliberalism to protectionism. This occurred within the framework of a changed international environment, from a battle between the Free World and communism, to one between nationalism and globalization.
Under her leadership, Marine Le Pen has been more clear in her support for protectionism, while she has criticised globalism and capitalism for certain industries. She has been characterised as a proponent of letting the government take care of health, education, transportation, banking and energy. (Wikipedia)”
So no French/German helicopter money the next time the thin veneer of economic solvency starts to crack within the EU. Domestically, instead of bailing French banks out (which screwed Le Pen by refusing to lend NF money to run), we could witness nationalization of part or all of the industry.
Let’s delve into Le Pen’s foreign policy:
“The FN was also one of several parties that backed France’s 2005 rejection of the Treaty for a European Constitution. In other issues, Le Pen (Jean-Marie) opposed the invasions of Iraq, led by the United States, both in the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 Iraq War.
Marine Le Pen has advocated that France should leave the euro (along with Spain, Greece and Portugal). She also wants to reintroduce customs borders and has campaigned against allowing dual citizenship. During both the 2010–2011 Ivorian crisis and the 2011 Libyan civil war, she opposed the French military involvements. She has recast the party’s image towards Israel, after affirming Israel’s right to secure itself from terrorism, and criticising the leadership of Iran.”
If Le Pen gets in, the freeloading tax cheating PIIGS are screwed the next time shit hits the fan.
From the same purveyors of globalist propaganda targeted at Trump, The Economist put out a little hit piece in March on Le Pen and the National Front which assails her positions on trade and EU membership:
“It [National Front] opposes free trade and free markets, displaying a strong protectionist streak. Ms Le Pen rails against France’s membership of the euro and is hostile to the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour that lie at the heart of the European single market.”
Here’s what Le Pen has said about bailouts:
“The hundred of billions paid do not product any result, will not settle any problem, will not rescue a eurozone already in bankruptcy and push France into the chasm of excessive debt, whereas the French debt has already exploded under the mandate of Nicolas Sarkozy.”
Sometimes the correct choice is the most painful to endure. Instead of endless helicopter Euros, a welfare system that can’t possibly continue to accommodate the massive influx of North African migrants, and membership in a union which rewards failure while dragging down productive members who don’t cheat on their taxes (lookin’ at you Greece), France under Le Pen would almost certainly have to muddle through an uncomfortable period in the transition away from the fires of globalist debt-burdened hell. It will be interesting to see how a Le Pen administration plans to unwind the massive welfare state in France along with the freeloading wing of the European Union, at a time in which the global economy appears to be at yet another inflection point. My guess is it won’t be quick or clean, and parts of France will once again burn to the ground.
On the other hand, not having to obligate future French taxpayers to massive bailouts of the PIIGS might be good for French Debt/GDP if remaining solvent is the goal.
If you think any of that is going to scare French voters, let’s not forget where Le Pen is finding much of her support.
“The FN has become the party of the working class,” says Bruno Cautrès, a political sciences researcher at Paris-based Sciences Po Cevipof. “The party offers a double explanation for their malaise: Europe has failed to protect their jobs from globalisation and failed to protect their way of life from Muslim immigrants.”
As Bob Dylan sang “When you ain’t got nothing, you got nothing to lose.” Sound familiar?
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Good question. In the end we are dealing with the French. At this point only the Gods have any clue what the fuck the “French” even are or ever have been. The Foreign Legion sort of says it all.