iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,992 Blog Posts

White House mention of Beijing puts wiggle in early price action / here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the holiday week with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and normal volume. Price worked higher overnight, working up near the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range before falling back into the middle of balance. At 8:45am this activity out of the White House caused a minor stir in the price of NASDAQ futures:

As we approach cash open, price is hovering right along last Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have PMI composite flash at 9:45am, 6- month and 2-year bill and note auctions at 11:30am and 3-month and 5-year note auctions att 1pm.

Last week was a bit of a chop fest. Little price discovery happened except for what we saw from the Russell 2000 which was bullish divergent. This suggests risk tolerance remains elevated. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap up beyond the Thursday range. After an open two-way auction sellers managed to close the small overnight gap before buyers made a small rotation higher and into range extension up. Said buyers never exceeded the Wednesday high. Instead we fell back to the midpoint and chopped along its topside for several hours. Late in the session a wave of selling pressed us into a neutral print and continued slashing lower into settlement. The move never made it through the prior session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to hold bids above 11,900 setting up a move up through overnight high 11,979. Look for sellers up at 12,000 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11885.25. This sets up a run down through overnight low 11,873.50. Look for buyers down at 11,800 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 12,035.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Bullish as heck and all fired up

Nothing surprises me anymore. So like water starts dripping from the ceiling, my first instinct isn’t to fall on my knees and wave my hands around saying, “Why? Does this? Happen…to me?” like I witnessed today. I just think for a minute, then grab a bucket and make a good guess of the tools I’d need to stop water from leaking thru the ceiling. Then go in the attic and take a look around.

Watch my big dumb head on the roofing nails that often pepper attic ceilings like some kind of medieval rack. Shine around looking for water then stop it. If a part is needed, run up to the heckin’ nearest hardware store and buy it.

They don’t have it? What DO they have that can stop the leak, even if only temporarily? Adapt.

The line is long as heck. An excellent opportunity to check in with your posture and breathing. Even easier now because nobody can see if your lips pucker when you draw your abs in (they won’t if you’re shwifty). The total is $11.76. Pay $12. Cashier not used to making change, doesn’t give a quarter back but two dimes and four pennies. No problemo. It all goes in the coin jar next to the key hook anyhow. Create efficient systems for everything.

It is hardt coming from a formal accounting education, accumulating tons of street smarts along the way, to being a man who live in a van down by the river. Yet, over time, when convictions and cock remain strong, it become immediately apparent that shit is destined to be handled if you’re around.

Take it as it comes. And for the love of vanity keep it sexy.

All that ‘how to be a they/them’ guff aside, in fact casting aside all human reason aside, these new heckin’ algorithms I am privy to thru my early access to Stocklabs are whispering bullishly in ma’ears. Who am I to question the cold, dead truth of an algorithm? A bird?

I am most certainly not a bird. I’m a man. I shore up shelters and clear dead trees and wrestle alligators. I read fiction and non-fiction and feel empathy for others. I gather nutrition from Costco and cook badass meals 2-3 times a day. I extract fiat american dollars at a steady clip from the global financial complex then convert said fiat into real assets like power tools and steel. Not the kind of they/them you’d ever consider trifling with, if seen IRL.

While I can almost always be seen carrying a sunny disposition and a fat stack of green rags, there’s a sparkle in my left eye that warns passerbys that I might could just make to kill.

She/hers regularly tell me I look like their favorite teevee cereal killers. Which physically, I don’t, but I get it. It’s the way I wiggle my words.

Best you queue up a Lyft when I arrive, lest your she/her find herself caught up in some RAUL prose of the persuasive variety. Things get awkward. But what’s to gain?

Not much.

I am supes bullish into the Fed Minutes. Into Thanksgiving. And clean into December.

Ciao,

Raul Santos, November 22nd, 2020

And now, the Weekly Strategy Session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/23/20 – 11/27/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.03, neutral. Watch for markets to drift higher into the holiday week. Watch for Fed Minutes out Wednesday afternoon to accelerate whatever price action is prevailing prior to the release.

U.S. Markets will be closed Thursday in observation of Thanksgiving.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy week. Little directional discovery from equity indices. The bullish divergence by the Russell 2000 suggests risk tolerance is running high.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Energy continues to trade on its own planet—way out in front last week. Utilities and Staples weak is a good indication that investors are not taking a flight to safety. Bulls however would like to see the key Tech sector a bit stronger.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows muted for a second week. No major skew.

slightly bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Working the hybrid overbought signal

Stocklabs flagged hybrid overbought on Monday, November 16rd at the end of the day. That signal runs until close of business Tuesday, December 1st.

I am sticking with the 12-month algo.

Taking a look at the past performance, we can see that this signal has been slightly bullish, historically:

With 85 samples, the signal has an average return of nearly 0.25% and nearly a 65% win rate.

Since the signal fired last Monday, markets have drifted a bit lower. If SPY reverts to its old statistics, we are looking at 2.25% worth of upside between now and the end of December 1st.

These stats have me bullish heading into month-end.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Drift higher into the holiday week. Watch for Fed Minutes out Wednesday afternoon to accelerate whatever price action is prevailing prior to the release. Then expect a choppy, low volume session Friday.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors choppy on the highs, Transports flirting with a breakout

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are lingering up beyond their multi-year range a bit. The longer price can hold up here, the more likely a break-out becomes. However, our primary expectation is for sellers to defend the top of range and eventually begin working price back down into balance.

See below:

Semiconductors are sort of chopping along in big ranges up near all-time highs. It is difficult to say whether they are currently in a discovery up phase. It could be a mini balance. The longer time frame definitely continues to be discovery up. However, this being the 4th leg of the phase, it can become a bit tricky up here. A fresh leg higher could be the start of something much bigger, or we could be close to an intermediate term top.

We don’t know.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs HYBRID OVERBOUGHT

On Monday, November 16th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Tuesday, December 1st, end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Don’t be distracted by emotions like anger, envy, resentment. These just zap energy and waste time.” – Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Trade simple, cultivate visceral indifference

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Weekend thoughts from the snake man

Not going to trade today. The week has been choppy and less volatile than recent history. I do not have the best track record on Fridays like these. Also I am to attend a tree and shrub pruning seminar today hosted by some professor at Michigan State University who has invented over 100 tools. I dig that he invented tools and I look forward to learning something different today.

The liberal arts are keeping me sane in lieu of social interaction. Instead of hot yoga I have philosophy and meditation. Instead of all-night raves in unsanctioned buildings I’ve taken a deep-dive into the fiction and non-fiction that came out of San Fransisco in the early 60s. Instead of pumping iron and swimming laps I’ve dusted off the old saxophone.

The only problem is I weighed 182lbs last week at the doc and that is a lot of mass to carry into snowboard season. While most don’t see it because I carry weight well, I am clinically overweight. With a BMI of 25.4 which is pretty disgusting. Something has to change.

I have taken to eating chicken eggs like a snake. Two at a time. Nearly every day. Prior to the pandemic I consumed maybe 5-6 eggs a month. Things are changing.

The isolation is creating odd voids that I’ve taken to filling with eggs and panned cakes and it shows.

It’s not so much the work from home part. I’ve been work from home for nearly eight years. It’s the entertain from home I am new to. I prefer to take my libations kicks out in public. Not alone.

Most illnesses can be traced back to either consuming too much or not enough alcohol. Right now I am plagued by a lack of consumption. I cannot drink more than a few sips of burbon without going to sleep in the tranquil cells of Mothership. Something has to give.

Anyhow. Either I need to figure out how to liven this place up or start taking my hooch intravenously because I am succumbing to the great American sickness—a dull mind and pudgy growths of fat along the back and thighs.

These are my concerns, dude. Not yours. I hope this blog entry finds you in good health and thriving cognitive spirits. To hell with the pandemic. The big bad cold. I wonder how many novel corona viruses were going around San Fransisco in the early 60s…free love, man.

Alright, let’s dial back in come Sunday.

Until then, I remain, eager for action while grotesquely long bitcoin and Big Tech.

Raul Santos, November 20th, 2020

 

 

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Back near Friday the 13th lows, here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, trading down near but not exceeding last Friday’s low. Since around 4am New York buyers have reversed much of the overnight selling. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out worse than expected. So far no reaction, and as we approach cash open price is overnight a few points below the Wednesday close.

Also on the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap down that buyers quickly resolved during an open two-way auction. Shortly after the open sellers spiked price down through the Tuesday low but the move had no follow thru. Instead the morning low was set before 10am and we spent the rest of the morning auctioning higher. Buyers worked price up into the top quadrant of Tuesday’s range but could not take out the high. Instead price fell back down into the midpoint around 2pm and after buyers defended the mid once, they failed during a more rapid bit of selling late in the afternoon. The closing selling pressed us into a neutral print and closed out the session on the lows.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,883.50. From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 11,903 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers buyers trade up to 11,941.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 11,804.50. Look for buyers just below at 11,800 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Calm drift, leaning bullish, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range. Price worked down through the Tuesday low for a bit, poking down into Monday’s lower quadrant but not exceeding the low before popping back to UNCH. At 8:30am housing starts/permits came out slightly better than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering below the Tuesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by as 20-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The session began with a slight gap down. Buyers were able to resolve the open gap during an open two-way auction and even took out the Monday high by a few ticks before sellers stepped in. Said sellers worked price back down to the Monday midpoint but were met there by a strong responsive bid. Said bidders worked price back up through the midpoint and we sort of chopped all over the mid until going range extension up around 1:45pm New York. After a bit more chop, some late day sellers pressed us into a neutral print. The day ended with price flagging along the lower quadrant of the day’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 12,023 setting up a tag of 12,036.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 11,944 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down through overnight low 11,916.50 setting up a tag of 11,900 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Made higher high overnight, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price popped higher overnight, trading up beyond the weekly high set Sunday evening around 8pm New York. The action saw price tag the naked VPOC from last Monday before coming into a tight balance. At 8:30am retail sales data came out a bit below expectations and more importantly Walmart earnings have the general retailers share off by -1.5% in pre-market trade. At 9:15 industrial production data came in as expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering right along the Monday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have business inventories and housing market index at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down and after an open two-way auction buyers quickly closed the overnight gap. The buying campaign continued higher, trading up and tagging the 12,000 century mark and going about 25 points beyond it before encountering any resistance. Then price checked back to the midpoint, went slightly below it, but buyers ultimately held the mid. Price ramped up into the closing bell and closed along the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 12,096.25 and tag 12,100.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,025.75. From here sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 11,991.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 11,946.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Active selling ahead of the week, here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price spiked Sunday evening when Globex trade opening, sending price up near last Monday’s VPOC before stalling. Price held the highs until about 7am when sellers began actively campaigning price lower. As we approach cash open, price is back inside last Friday’s range, hovering about ten points above the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am. Also be aware major U.S. employer and retailer Walmart is set to report earnings Tuesday before the bell.

Last week kicked off with a bit of a morning spike, then we faded lower through Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday morning a responsive bid had stepped in and put a floor in the markets. We gradually rallied higher for the rest of the week, never taking out the high prints set Monday. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up in ranger that sellers quickly resolved after an open-two way auction. Said sellers continued worki lower, tagging the Thursday naked VPOC before discovering a responsive bid. The morning selling lasted long enough to press the market range extension down, but the rest of the session was controlled by buyers, who reclaimed the midpoint by noon New York and defended a check back around 2:15pm. Then we ramped higher into the close, not exceeding the Thursday high but pressing into a neutral print and closing on the day’s high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower. Sellers are active ahead of 11,900 setting up a move down through overnight low 11,851.75. Look for buyers down at 11,815.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,946. Buyers tag 12,000 then look for sellers up at 12,056.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers pres up through overnight high 12,065 and tag the Monday naked VPOC at 12,087.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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All signals neutral, time to chill

My cognitive reservoir is running dry. I used up my best thought yesterday and until I go move something heavy or contort for a few hours, I am afraid all I can muster up is dullard commentary about the militarization of police.

It baffles the mind that these grumpy old white dudes act so tough. And hunt. And muscle their pickup trucks around the roads. Yet they cower behind the proverbial shield of the law dogs like a bunch of bootlickers. All the noise about freedom and liberties while funding an organization designed to control and oppress.

But I have no charisma for it today. In any event, any attempt to apply reasonable logic to the psyche of the extreme right is a sure way to boondoggle the mind.

Models are neutral. Trading will be kept tight and minimal. Little 15 point jabs in the futes. Continue to press all the long term bets on Big Tech.

Raul Santos, November 15th 2020

And now the Strategy Session, enjoy.


Exodus Strategy Session: 11/16/20 – 11/20/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.40, medium bull. No real direction until Tuesday. Watch for Walmart earnings (Tuesday, before-market-open) to put some direction into the tape for the rest of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big, news driven (vaccine hope) gap up Monday. Steadily faded and erased by early Tuesday. Then a steady choppy rally for the rest of the week. Lagging NASDAQ.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations into low quality sectors like Financials and Staples. Tech lagging.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows were relatively muted, but skewing towards the positive side of the ledger.

slightly bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

No signals, minimal trading

With neither IndexModel nor Stocklabs generating a directional bias, trades will be kept to a minimal. No pressing. Small scalps, where favorable, only.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

No real direction until Tuesday. Watch for Walmart earnings (Tuesday, before-market-open) to put some direction into the tape for the rest of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors form mini balance, Transports top out at range high

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports met resistance at the top of the multi year range. Balance remains.

See below:

Semiconductors could be forming a mini-balance up here, inside a maturing discovery up on the higher time frame.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral. No bias.

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“When a thoughtless or unkind word is spoken, best tune out.” – Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Trade simple, keep the blinders up

 

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I see what’s happening here…

Silly I thought it would take lifting the cost of gas up to twenty a gallon to accomplish it. Not a spooky virus. But here we are.

Best Practices and other adaptations being made necessary by the novel corona virus are widening the gulch between the privileged and the not.

A trip to the movie theater has maintained a relatively low barrier since not long after the talkies started gracing screens across the country. According to USA Today, the national average cost of a movie ticket in 2018 was $9.11, marking the first time the average price has eclipsed $9.00. For most of the 1990s, tickets sold for an average of less than $5 apiece, and dating back to the 1960s, many Americans could go to the movies for less than a buck.

The concessions are a shamless gouge, but sneaking in snacks and a drink never required ninja-like instincts. A good time at the movies was accessible by all but the truly desperate. Not any more. Theaters are now being retooled for groups of twenty who can afford to shell out $149 to $349 to see a new release.

These changes amount to what has always been commonplace in the more uppity parts of town—clubs. Places that only allow for like private bowling, or golfing or tennis or swimming or whatever else it is waspy Americans do.

Those heckin’ millenials were doing too much roaming around.

Drifting from one hip city to another, breaking up their freewheeling apartment hopping with three day festivals and Art Basels and backpacking adventures through LatAm. They had to be sequestered to a square of surburban land and made to toil mindlessly on leaves while they reproduce at a rate of 2.7 children per household until the monotony of it all buggered them into the ground.

This fate, of course, applies mostly to anyone falling below the murky upper-middle-class threshold. A shrewd $150k/year earner can still cope with the headache of travel in a pandemic and the cost for reservation of large VRBOs. The pleasure continues for the privileged.

I count myself among the privileged few. My winter docket is nearly booked solid with everything from  RVing around to all the major ski mountains to extended stay in seven bedroom, five bathroom estates boasting instagrammy vistas. Whenever a local dilettante reserves any one of the various pinky up establishments around Detroit for private event, my name is sure to be on the list. We are dead set on living. As for the big scary terrible consequences of catching C19…balls, let that fear rest on some other sap.

What is important, aside from an immense and truthful sense of gratitude for being on the right side of this situation, is to resist the urge to fight these changes being made by our leaders. Going to war for some answer to how to make it affordable for everyone to rent out movie theaters for two hours is not our job.

This is Andrew Yang’s job.

Our job is to extract as many fiat American dollars as possible from the global equity complex. Said dollars are to be converted into mobile command units. Large envoys that can deploy on short notice and access difficult terrain. Self sufficient off shoots from Mothership that boast all the modern comforts of a modern home.

Fighting the prevailing tide is a fool’s effort. Go with the flow. Love thy fate. All that good stoic stuff. Be grateful they haven’t chipped us yet and installed usb drives at the top of our spines. And that the only solid roadblock is between us and Canada.

For now there are two distinct existences crystallizing.

  • The W-4 home owner: scrapes out a modest living whilst being indentured to the mortgage banks.
  • The tactical capitalists: experiences jaw dropping wealth creation in the financial markets and other less liquid assets. The hoarder, vagabond or otherwise, giving orders to widen the moat and blow the bridges until we can make sense of this microscopic demon.

When will the scientists raise the all clear flag?

We don’t know. As always, we’ll take it one day at a time. Just like alcoholics.

Raul Santos, November 14th 2020

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NASDAQ up a mild +40, CPI came in soft, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are headed into the fourth day of a new President-elect with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the top-side of Wednesday’s midpoint until about 4am when buyers worked price up through the Wednesday high. Since then buyers rejected an attempt back into Wednesday range. At 8:30am CPI data came out softer than expected and jobless claims data slightly better than expectations. As we approach cash open price is hovering just above the Wednesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week t-bill auctions at 10am then a speech from Fed Chairman Powell at 11:45am. There is also a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up and after buyers held the bid above 11,700 during an open-two way auction buyers stepped in and drove higher, right up to 11,800. Chop ensued for several hours, chopping above the midpoint before a second rotation higher began around 12:15pm New York. We flagged along the highs for the rest of the session, eventually ending near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reclaim the Wednesday high 11,910.75 early on and close the gap down to 11,895.75. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 11,781.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers reject a move back into Wednesday high 11,910.75 setting up a run through overnight high 11,965.50. Look for sellers at 12,00 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers rally up to 12,070.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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