Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:19am ESTComments Off on Powell speaks ahead of House testimony, NASDAQ spikes higher, day after trend opportunity already captured
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced for most of the overnight session, marking time above Tuesday’s midpoint. Then around 8:30am something Fed Chairman Powell said creating a buying reaction that saw price spike about 70 points to a new all-time high. As we approach cash open, price is hovering at record highs.
On the economic calendar today we have Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Panel beginning at 10am. Crude oil inventories are due out at 10L30am. There’s a 10-year note auction at 1pm followed by FOMC Meeting minuets at 2pm.
Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a gap down below Monday’s range. Sellers briefly probed below last Tuesday’s low before discovering a sharp responsive bid. Buyers then began a campaign higher, filling the overnight gap then counting higher to close the Friday/weekend gap. We closed near session high.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for the higher time frames to duke it out. This looks like wide rotations in both directions before buyers ultimately break away higher and tag 7950 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers press into overnight inventory, erase 8:30am spike higher and continue lower, down through overnight low 7811.25 setting up a tag of 7800 before two way trade ensues.
Mon Jul 8, 2019 8:43am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ starts week with modest gap down ;-) here’s the Monday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price drifted lower overnight then found balance inside of Friday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in Friday’s lower quadrant.
This is a busy week for Fed speak, with several key members scheduled to speak along with Fed Chairman Powell set to testify at the House and Senate Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.
Last week kicked off with a big gap up that was sold into for most of Monday, but sellers were unable to erase the gap before bidders took action. Tuesday was mostly flat but there was clear strength under the surface. This ultimately lead to a late-Tuesday spike that that followed through clean into the 4th of July. Then Friday we opened gap down and buyers spent most of the day working it higher. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down below Wednesday’s range (markets were closed Thursday for 4th of July). After a brief two-way auction sellers stepped in and worked price lower, briefly pressing the market range extension down before discovering a strong responsive bid. Buyers then pressed neutral and drove price higher but were unable to fill the overnight gap. There was some selling late into the settlement period.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7851. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7863.50. Look for a fill of the Wednesday open gap 7889.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag the 7900 century mark before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7808.25. There is a battle at the 7800 century mark which eventually gives way to lower prices. Look for buyers down at 7772.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Sun Jul 7, 2019 1:24pm ESTComments Off on Phoned in another model update
Listen lads, it is finally summer up here in the murder mitten and it has all the trimming of a maddening one. There has been a major uptick in the amount of neck tattoos listlessly wandering through Trump county, their brain tissues inflamed by the same histamines responsible for their itchy noses and bloodshot eyes. They pose little risk, inebriated by the oppressive sun heat and their own choices, they’re just a clear indication it’s summer in July.
There was a hostage situation a few blocks down from Mothership, with some crazed lunatic locking himself and ‘lover’ in his basement, barricaded in with a wide array of assault weapons. Again, not caring so much, more signs of the summer.
Up north word got out through various social media channels that the place to inebriate was a small state park beach in an otherwise hokey small town. Authorities in the area claimed they’ve never seen anything like it, youths by the 100s descending like gulls, beer bongs and injection needles in tote. The beach was eventually shut down, and as the police chased away the flock, an image emerged of a wonderfully bleak field of unconscious party fiends littered across the sand—some from opiates others from chaotic brawling. I really do not care, these are all signs of summer up here in the murder mitten.
I took solace in the city, which has been receiving isolated rainstorms. The usual crazies haven’t been filing into their desk jobs. The highways are nearly empty. The sidewalks don’t have their usual confetti of adderall pills and extinguished cigarettes. I’d imagine most of those loons took time away from the mortgage servicing complex to go up north. Only the hardened locals are left; calmer loons, content with the groceried-cart lifestyle.
From my small garden oasis it all seems rather meaningless, except a few things:
the urgency to acquire gratuitous sums of wealth via independent pursuit
placing two middle fingers firmly in the faces of outside investors/vultures
keeping my best cards in my own hand
playing them when the time is right
spinning all these plates while I dig holes
On Monday, the quant strategy I use to diversify fiat american dollars into stocks made its quarterly adjustment. It picked ridiculous stocks. I’m hands off, stock picking is a robots job, not mine. I can only pick real investments like TSLA or TWTR or MTCH, and build massive 10-year holds, but quarterly stock picking? Or even shorter time frames? For the robots. Are you a simulation or a human? What makes you so sure? Even if I wanted to pick stocks, I don’t have the mental bandwidth right now, it’s hotter than Haiti, and I am busy playing offense while all these jacked asses fart around on pontoon boats.
The roaring ’20s kicks off in six short months. Will you let your little start-up project sit on the back burner until then? Back to work.
RAUL SANTOS, July 7th, 2019
Exodus members, the 242nd edition of strategy session is live. Semiconductors are starting to tell a story here, see Section IV. At a minimum, log in and read the executive summary so this week’s events don’t catch you flat footed.
Tue Jul 2, 2019 8:12am ESTComments Off on Prices stabilize into ID4 Tuesday, here is the NASDAQ trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight, trading inside Monday’s lower quad for the entire globex session. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in said lower quad.
There are no economic events today.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a pro gap up to levels unseen since May 3rd. After a brief open two-way auction sellers stepped in and began working price lower. There was some chop and balance before New York lunch before sellers worked a second rotation lower. Buyers stepped in late in the session, near last week’s high print, and we ramped nearly back to the daily midpoint by end of day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7791. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7799.50. Look for sellers up at 7810 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up through Monday high 7849.75 setting up a move to target 7887.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7763 setting up a move to target 7737.25 before two way trade ensues.
Mon Jul 1, 2019 9:06am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ gap up into July, near highs, here’s the Monday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into the new week/month/quarter gap up after an overnight session featuring its own gap up, then elevated range on extreme volume. Price chopped along overnight until about 8pm New York when it attempted to press down into the gap up that occurred when globex opened for trade at 6pm. Buyers rejected the move and price worked up beyond the initial chop. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near globex highs, trading inside the 05/03 range, just about 30 points off of record highs.
On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing/employment along with construction spending at 10am, then both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Last week was mostly a sideways drift. Monday was flat, Tuesday saw strong selling but no follow through for the rest of the week. Instead we marked time by trading inside the Tuesday range, going sideways for the rest of the week. The Russell demonstrated relative strength throughout the balance. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up that was sold into. Buyers showed up just below the Thursday low, before sellers could press range extension down, and price rallied to back near the highs. We did not go range extension up however until the final moments of the session when a strong ramp took prices to a 3-day high as we ended the week.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, closing the open gap up at 7865 then continuing higher to tag 7888 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 7772.75 setting up a move to target 7759.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 full on trend up. Trade up through 7888 and sustain trade above it, setting up an exploration of open air.
Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:10am ESTComments Off on Independence Day vibe is bullish and lazy
I have been slacking on my market research routines and this is not something I want to get into the habit of doing. The Sunday research I began 241 weeks ago elevated my trading. The morning trading reports have always been my rock, even in the most uncertain times.
This week starts with a Monday the first day of a new quarter. That means I will be making an adjustment to the quant system I run using Exodus and Motif. Then I will likely be taking the rest of the week easy.
I’ve been all around this great big world and there are few places more enjoyable than Michigan these next few weeks. It is real hot, not that California pleasant heat but real, oppressive temperatures. There are freshwater rivers and lakes everywhere. Spirits are high. Therefore as important as it is to not become lazy with my research, I can also avoid error by simply not trading.
The market will still be here when I dial back in, just like it was here long before and will be here long after. Cheers to free market capitalism. It is the only ethos worth acknowledging.
Now I must be going, a good friend’s birthing day party is about to kick off at a nearby swimming pool.
ciao ciao and kiss kiss
-Raul Santos, June 30th, 2019
Exodus members, the 241st edition of Strategy Session is live.
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:42am ESTComments Off on 5am spike recovers half of Tuesday’s sell-off, here’s the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced for most of the overnight session, chopping along the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range before spiking higher around 5am. The spike discovered sellers around Tuesday’s midpoint and as we approach cash open price is hovering below the Tuesday mid. At 8:30am durable goods and advance goods trade balance data came out _____________.
Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 2-year note auction at 11:30am and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down and drive lower. The selling slowed briefly after closing the 06/19 open gap but continued to trend lower until about 3pm. We spent the rest of the day chopping along the low.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7629.50. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7616.25 setting up a move to tag the 7600 century mark. Look for buyers down at 7576 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 7698 to tag the 7700 century mark. Look for sellers up at 7734 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the gap down at 7561.50 before two way trade ensues.
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:54am ESTComments Off on Summer balance, here’s the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight after briefly poking up beyond the Monday high. The selling pressure took prices down near last Thursday’s low but was unable to probe beyond the Thursday low before coming into balance. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Friday low.
On the economic calendar today we have new home sales and consumer confidence at 10am, also Fed Chairman Powell talking economic outlook and policy at 1pm at the same time as a 2-year note auction.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down, barely. The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved. The rest of the day was spent chopping in a tight balance. Very late in the session we went range extension down by one tick. This is the ‘barely’ that made it a normal variation down instead of the uncommon ‘normal’ day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to regain the Monday range and close the gap up to 7759.50, From here we continue higher, taking out overnight high 7779.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers reject price down and away from Monday low 7749.25 setting up a move to take out overnight low 7714.25. Look for buyers down at the 7700 century mark and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 7800 before two way trade ensues.
Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:31pm ESTComments Off on Summer is finally here, sweet summer hallelujah, models are bullish again
That Bunker Buster signal on 06/02 was really something, wasn’t it? Paired with an Exodus Hybrid Oversold that fired that Friday before the weekend, and we had double the reason to wake up Monday morning, huevos swinging low as we came to market and bought equities.
That bearish signal last Sunday was not the same. It was like, “Really IndexModel? Your robot brain thinks it’s a good idea to short here, just a few bull thrusts away from all-time highs, in the wake of a Bunker Buster no less?” I began shorting /nq_f late Monday and actually saw some traction. I positioned into SQQQ. It was maybe looking like an okay move, given the mid-week Federal Reserve wild card.
There was a clear third reaction up to the Fed actions and it was then that I abandoned my short selling campaign, leaving only SQQQ to ride because that is how I trade IndexModel. It is a five day commitment. I only tweet when neccecary and third reaction almost always earns a tweet:
But given the CONTEXT, you know, summer time, third reaction up, bunker buster a few weeks ago, hovering near record highs, I didn’t waste my time in front of the computer, shorting the nq_f.
Context was a missing link to my success as a trader for a long time. All the mentors I found and paid good money to for help could not properly use their words to describe what context was. They kept it down in their gut or something I don’t know.
Anyways I did my best to quantify context and every.single.day. I do my best to use my words, here in the sacred halls of iBankCoin and on Twitter to call out context.
That’s all I have to say about that. Models are back to bullish and there is an island in Detroit calling my name. Enjoy the first day of summer fam, for tomorrow we go back to pulling fiat out of the financial system.
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:21am ESTComments Off on Bulls in charge heading into Fed meeting, here’s the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume. Price marked time overnight, bobbing along the Tuesday midpoint for the duration of Globex. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the mid.
On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by the FOMC rate decision at 2pm which will be followed at 2:30pm with a press conference with Fed Chairman Powell. Investors down at the Chicago Mercantile are currently placing 24.2% odds of a 25 basis points rate hike. This is a live meeting.
Yesterday we printed normal variation up. The day began with a gap up and after a brief opening two-way auction buyers drove higher. Price rallied up into the 05/07 range, a day which marked the breakdown from a multi-day consolidation up near record highs. The 05/08 open gap was closed along the way. By late morning responsive sellers were discovered and we worked back down to the daily midpoint. We spent the rest of the day marking time along the mid, eventually closing right on it.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 7691 and sustain trade above it, setting up a test up through Tuesday high 7721.75. There’s open air until 7800 but look for sellers at 7750 and two way trade to ensue. Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7663 triggering a liquidation down through the Tuesday low 7625.25. Look for buyers down at 7611. Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.
Hypo 3 short squeeze ahead of the Fed. Buyers fully traverse the air gap, tagging 7800 before the meeting. Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.