iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,093 Blog Posts

Just trading the signals

Good morning gang. Your local metaverse junkie here. I done speculated the NFP report well so I am taking the rest of the day off from trading.

We lost some good lads these last few weeks. Trading has its streaks. I swear to you. There are other trades where this happens. If you speak to most small business owners they’ll tell you the same thing.

Trading is a business. So is selling strawberries. Or software or jpegs or cars. Sales is good honest work btw and the bots are going to have a hard time replacing sales people.

Let’s be clear on one things — I receive zero fiat compensation from iBankCoin/Stocklabs. Dear Fly has offered me funds in the past I always say, “Keep it. Invest it into making Exodus/Stocklabs better.”

Because I make my money in the markets.

And a big part of my edge is being an above average executor of systematic signals and Dear Fly has built one heck of a time machine.

We lost some good lads these last few weeks.

I saw an interesting tweet a few weeks ago that said technical analysis is astrology for men. That’s interesting to me because a trading system based on celestial cycles can be just as profitable as one based off of price charts and I don’t think the author of that tweet knows this.

The challenge is consistently executing a strategy. We lost some good lads these last few weeks.

Listen, I am not going to stand here on my humble soap box and say I enjoyed September. I didn’t. I could have done better and I didn’t and I will have to go back through my notes and think about what obstructed my performance.

My job is not to trade from the gut. My trades are based on statistics that are indifferent to me. The market does not try to kill me. Markets only exist to facilitate the maximum amount of trade. That’s it.

The numbers on the screen are a human attempt to organize the interaction of millions of humans. In essence, markets are the collective conscience of humanity.

Which is why this 2021 drift deeper into the metaverse has been so fluid for me.

You see lads, I’ve been alone for nearly 10 years now, eating what I kill. Starving when I fail. These days I grow much more food. Because for real there were periods during this trading journey where I for real wasn’t sure if I was “gonna make it.”

It is feast and famine at the house of Raul. I’ve hit some grand slams these last few years and that has taken my back off the wall a bit. But that time. When I wasn’t sure and had to scrape by broke. That changed me.

Maybe for the worse.

There is an alternate Raul who kept his 75k/annum salary back in 2011 and just kept spening 32 hours a week in a cube, denying meeting requests, building giant corporate spreadsheets and eating Five Guys hammed burgers. He’s probably very fat and wealthy.

Instead I am a wiry fucker. Shitposting on the internet whilst dancing in a minefield of thieves, institutional militias and profiteers. Foraging nuts and berries off the floor, building a utilitarian compound in Detroit.

All I hope to demonstrate here through, in the hallowed halls of iBankCoin, is the ability to execute simple signals consistently.

I keep most of the other wild speculations on Twitter. A stock, mind you, that is overdue for a one hundred dollar roll.

And that’s all I have to say for now. I’ll be back Sunday with updated research.

Raul Santos, October 8th 2021

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NASDAQ extends bounce overnight // here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap up, up beyond the prior six days’ ranges after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price steadily campaigned higher overnight, pressing up beyond the Wednesday high early into Globex and continuing to advance, balance, then continue throughout the night. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly better than expected, but it seems investors are more keen on tomorrow morning’s employment data. No reaction to this morning’s data. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Tuesday’s liquidation session.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range. There was a drive higher at the open. it stalled right along the Tuesday midpoint, before filling the overnight gap and sellers made a sharp move lower, effectively taking out Tuesday low and closing the Monday gap in one fell swoop. Here we formed a sharp excess low, and did so before the first hour of trade was complete. This would be low-of-day. Buyers pressed to an early range extension up, closing the overnight gap. Very methodical. Then we checked back to the midpoint. Methodical. Buyers held the mid for several hours before an afternoon rally saw price work up near the Tuesday high. We balanced along the high for a bit before ultimately taking out the high during settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, buyers squeeze up to 15,006.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 half gap fill. Sellers work into overnight inventory and close a half gap down to 14,870 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 14,759.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ traders *edit:undo* Tuesday’s gains overnight // here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down about -150 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price fell down through the Tuesday midpoint around 9:30pm and then consolidated until about 3am. The 3am hour has been dominated by sellers the last month-or-so. Around 3am sellers pressed down through the Tuesday low and down into the lower quadrant of Monday’s range. Then around 6am New York bidders stabilized the selling. Then around 7am the auction reversed higher. At 8:15am adp employment forecast came out well above expectations, and as we approach cash open price is hovering back inside the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a  slight gap up in range. Buyers drove higher shortly after an open test. Sellers made an attempt shortly after to gap fill but failed and then a steady buying/accumulation campaign took hold. Said buying continued until about 11:30am. Then after several hours of balance/consolidation buyers made another push higher but stalled around 3:30pm before closing the weekend gap. Instead we saw quick selling into the close. We ended the session above the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 14,660. From here buyers continue higher, trading up through overnight high 14,674.75. Look for sellers up at 14,700 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers reject out of Tuesday low 14,497.50 early on setting up a move down through overnight low 14,422.50. Look for buyers down at 14,388.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 full-on liquidation lower. Sellers take out Monday low 14,367.75 early on setting up a gap fill down to 14,324. Stretch targets 14,300 and then 14,272.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ hobbling into Tuesday // here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Tuesday in October with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the bottom-side of Monday’s midpoint. As we approach cash open price is hovering about -50 points below the Monday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have ism services index at 10am followed by 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a slight gap down in range. Sellers drove into the open, steadily driving lower clean through to 11am New York, printing a -300 point liquidation along the way. Then we spent the rest of the session chopping along the lower quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 14,549.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers reverse the Monday selling, filling the weekend gap up to 14,766.

Hypo 3 continued liquidation. Sellers take out overnight low 14,410 setting up a test down through Monday low 14,367.75. This sets up a gap fill down to 14,324 (the 06/24 open gap).

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ eases into first full week of October // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price briefly exceeded the Friday high Sunday evening before beginning a steady rotation lower. Said rotation worked price down through the Friday midpoint for a bit. Since then price has recovered the mid and as we approach cash open price is hovering about 50 points above it.

On the economic calendar today we have factory orders at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured balance/consolidation Monday. Then there was a pro gap down and drive lower Tuesday. That selling continued through early Friday. Then mid-morning on Friday a sharp reversal higher took hold and rallied prices into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with The day began with a slight gap up inside range. After a brief open two-way auction sellers stepped in and drove down through the Thursday low, trading down into levels unseen since July 20th before buyers stepped in and reversed the auction. The rest of the day was spent steadily campaigning higher. There was a brief pause above the midpoint before the accumulation continued through the afternoon, eventually tagging the Thursday volume point of control.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 14,766. From here buyers continue up through overnight high 14,835. Look for sellers up at 14,865.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 14,633.50 and tag 14,600.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers probe the lows and tag 14,500.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Crypto is the tail that wags the dog

Lads it’s real overcast here in the land of lakes and I went to a soccer game this morning. This resulted in my being forced to complete Sunday research during my low cognitive hours and boy has it been a grind.

But the research is the research and without it I cannot trade. Those are the rules. I should know. I wrote them. For me.

Great.

Anyhow this whole scary move lower we experienced in the markets, it started with crypto and if crypto has anything to say about it it is going to end with crypto.

Equities, being risk assets just like crypto, are lagging and following moves in the major internet tokens, namely ether.

That stated, it has been a strong weekend for the crypto currency markets and I expect that trend to carry into equities in the upcoming week.

I have attached my ego to the Twitter trade, in part due to some real banker looking Goldman Sachs banker slapping a sell rating on Twitter after I sized up.

I don’t like bankers. I used to be a corporate accountant. I’ve seen many a banker up close and they just make me want to make to kill.

The reality is I have no say in the outcome of this position. My life is in Jacked Dorsey’s beautiful hands.

Earnings are set for October the 26th, after the bell of course. This is when my fate shall be decided.

My price target is $109.

Okay. I am really not feeling the juices flowing so I’m gonna go eat some groceries and maybe pet some dogs.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, October 3rd 2021

And now the 358th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 10/04/21 – 10/08/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.95, neutral. Buyers steadily campaign price higher throughout the week. Then look for Friday morning’s nonfarm payroll data to dictate direction into the weekend.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Balance/consolidation Monday. Pro gap down and drive lower Tuesday. Continued Selling through early Friday, then a sharp reversal higher into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Fairly risk off across the board. Energy continues to trade independent of other sectors. Tech and Healthcare leading to the downside is not bullish.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Five weeks back we had a major bullish skew and that really hasn’t been negated yet. Last week’s ledger is slightly skewed to the negative side.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Just a couple of bullish cycles now

Indexmodel is neutral and Stocklabs has two bullish cycles heading into next week. New month/quarter paired with Stocklabs backing. I will be leaning bullish all week.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Buyers steadily campaign price higher throughout the week. Then look for Friday morning’s nonfarm payroll data to dictate direction into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors compressing and rallying

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are still holding range.

See below:

Semiconductors broke their rising wedge last week and now appear to be in a balance formation.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is back to neutral after signaling Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish last week. It was neutral the prior two weeks after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish four weeks back after being neutral five reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the two consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty one weeks ago.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Thursday, September 23rd  Stocklabs went overbought on the 6-month algorithm. This is a bullish cycle that runs until Thursday, October 7th end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. Twelve Month Hybrid Oversold

On Tuesday, September 28th Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the 12-month algorithm. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Tuesday, October 12th end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VIII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I am creating beauty out of scary things.” – Grimes

Trade simple, trade beautifully

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All right let’s end this month // here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of September up about +70 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing inside the Wednesday range. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected and jobless claims were higher than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering along the Wednesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Chicago PMI at 9:45am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap up in range. After a brief open auction buyers drove higher, pressing up out of the consolidation zone from Tuesday before being met by responsive sellers who defended their conviction zone. This led to some chop along the midpoint before sellers pressed us into range extension down into New York lunch.

Sellers probed the lows for a bit before a sharp responsive bid shot price up through the mid. Then late in the session sellers reclaimed the mid and we closed out the session in the lower quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 14,883.50 setting up a tag of 14,900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally to 15,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,774 then continue lower, taking out overnight low 14,754.75 on their way to tagging 14,700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ off the floor // here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, mostly balancing along the lower half of Tuesday’s range. After briefly probing above the Tuesday mid around 3am, sellers reclaimed the mid around 7am and as we approach cash open price is hovering about -45 points below that mid.

On the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed Chairman Powell set to speak at 11;45am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down below the prior three sessions’ ranges. After a brief test higher, sellers drove down into the open, sending price on a discovery down into levels unseen since July 21st. The downward auction sort of came to an end around New York lunch, sort of. Three bounce attempts were faded back down to the lows and we ended the day on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 14,926 setting up a move to 15,000 before chop resumes.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,758.25. Sellers continue lower, taking out overnight low 14,749 on their way to tagging 14,705.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 14,600.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ rekd by 3am sellers (again) // here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Tuesday of September down a quick -225 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the Monday midpoint until about 2:45am New York when sellers stepped in and began a steady selling campaign that saw price down into last Monday’s lower quadrant. As we approach cash open price is hovering just below last Tuesday’s low, near last Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have international trade in goods (advance) at 8:30am followed by consumer confidence at 10am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down just below last Friday’s low. Sellers rejected an attempt back into Friday range during an open-two-way auction setting up a fast move lower to tag the 15,00 century mark. The auction turned here, and we spent the rest of the morning campaigning higher, eventually pushing to a range extension up before New York lunch. Then price fell back to the mid, sort of walked all over it for a few hours before rallying into the close, effectively tagging the Friday naked volume point of control. Price faded off the highs into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and tag 15,100. Some battle here before buyers continue higher to close the overnight gap 15,185.50. Look for sellers up at 15,200 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down to 14,900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger seller press down through last week’s low print 14,807 triggering a liquidation down to 14,705.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ strong, then weak overnight // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final week of September gap down about -120 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was stable Sunday evening, steadily rising up through last week’s high and holding these levels until about 3:30am. From 3:30am price has gone unidirectionally lower, effectively erasing the Sunday rally and more. At 8:30am durable goods orders came out stronger than expected (in line ex-auto). As we approach cash open price is hovering along the Friday low.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 6-month T-bills and 2-year notes for auction at 11:30am followed by 3-month bills and 5-year notes at 1pm.

Last week featured a major gap down Monday across the board. The rest of the week saw price steadily claw back the weekend losses and the week concluded on a high note, with price at the weekly highs.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down in range. There was an open two-way auction and then a tight, choppy range all morning. Then halfway through the New York lunch hour buyers pressed into a range extension up and began to campaign for the gap fill. They met a bit of resistance ahead of the gap around 1:45pm, then after a shallow pullback resumed their campaign, effectively closing the gap and continuing higher to tag the Thursday value point-of-control [VPOC].

Of note. The Friday VPOC never shifted off the lower distribution, suggesting a lack of participating on the late-Friday upside move.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down to 15,115-15,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers tag the 15,000 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory, closing the overnight gap 15,316.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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