I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,135 Blog Posts

Ben Kallo Is Buying Tesla Shares Ahead of Earnings in a Very DGAF Manner

Ben Kallo is a smart feller and loyal disciple to the venerable Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) and the man had some good things to say about Tesla heading into earnings this morning, see below:

Baird analyst Ben Kallo said he is a buyer of Tesla shares ahead of Q4 results, which he believes will be another de-risking event for the company. Although he said there could be short-term noise as expectations are calibrated, he recommends owning the shares. He expects an update on the Model 3 and Gigafactory production ramps, which he believes will drive the shares higher. Kallo reiterated his Outperform rating and $338 price target on Tesla shares.

And just like that, with a stroke of his analyst pen, the stock surged higher Thursday.  $TSLA is set to report earnings February 22nd after market close.

Kallo suggests you make plans now for the post-earnings champagne uncorking and sanctimonious celebration that’s sure to follow.



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NASDAQ Continues To Rally – New Highs Overnight

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new highs briefly, around 6am, before flattening back out.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have Wholesale Inventories at 10am and a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  A gap down was sold early on but quickly formed an excess low suggesting the presence of strong responsive buying.  We then rallied up through the Tuesday high and sustained above it.  A late-day ramp higher was faded.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the small gap down to 5191.25 then continue lower through overnight low 5186.25.  Look for buyers down around 5175 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers continue exploring higher prices, take out overnight high 5201.75 and probe higher.  Open air.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 5157.75 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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A Closer Look at The Inner Workings of The Market, Up Here at All-Time Highs

Not many spend time to understand the complications of the stock market—all the small mechanics behind price and time.

Today they tell a story of health and virility.

But that small slip lower we experienced last week followed by an overexertion from the bull, el toro, created context, or a story, that merited exploring a short bias.

Leaning short was effective several times this week, intra-day.  Yet we pressed higher.  When we came into my favorite Fibonacci extension, which is a fun place for algos to run stops, the level became a last stand for short sellers.

Sellers either defend the level or lose the first full week in the second full month under our new Authoritarian Regime.

It made sense to also go swing short, so I put some QID on the books.


The market confirmed it was a decent entry.  We sold off on Tuesday from those levels.

But alas, here we are, lingering above my Fibs.  And the longer we do, the more likely this leg of the rally is the real deal and not just a petty stop run.


So my bias intra-day keeps pivoting.  This afternoon it was long.

The complications, the context, the story—whatever you want to call it, can form an objective set of observations for making market decisions.  Presented with the right facts, any one of you could make the right decision.

Just for fun I ran through all my afternoon observations over on the old snapchat.  Check it out if you want, username vCali.

Disclaimer: lots of random stuff on my snap story too

I’m keeping the QID to stay swing short the NAS for now, but it’s on its heels.


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NASDAQ Calm at The Peaks

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held high balance overnight in slow, two-way trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications data came out better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the US Treasury is auctioning off $24 billion worth of 10-year Notes.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After starting the day gap up to new all-time highs, price drove higher until nearly lunchtime.  Then, we formed excess high right around where one would expect to see algorithims hunting stop orders.  Sellers pressured the tape for the rest of the afternoon but gained little traction.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5171.25 and work a gap fill down to 5158.  Buyers show up here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 take out overnight high 5187.75 and continue working new highs.  Take out Tuesday high 5192 and tag the 5200 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5138.25 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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One Last Squeeze, Or Perhaps Another Leg Higher—NASDAQ Begins Tuesday at All-time High

NASDAQ futures set to gap higher into Tuesday after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up to and sustaining new highs as we approach cash open.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data was slightly worse than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, a 4-week and 34-day T-bill auction at 11:30am, $24 billions dollar’s worth of 3-year Notes being auctioned at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After starting the week gap down, buyers quickly showed up and bid the market higher.  They continued their campaign late in the afternoon to close near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze higher early on, up to 5182.  Look for sellers up here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger squeeze up to 5191.25, then seller show up and begin reversing the move.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5191.25 setting the stage for a real rally.

Hypo 4 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5158 then set their sights on overnight low 5154.25.  Look for buyers down at 5150.50 and two way trade to ensue.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Saudi Arabian Starbucks Reportedly Bans Women, Company Claims Fake News, Sort of

Some nice lady living in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia sent out a tweet about this time last year which included a picture of a sign taped to the entry door of a Starbucks in the city.  The sign reads, “PLEASE NO ENTRY FOR LADIES ONLY SEND YOUR DRIVER TO ORDER.”

For real, check it out:

Saudi Arabia has all sorts of jacked up laws to keep women, which are property like dog or goat, from living a normal life.  Like voting and opening a bank account.  You know, stuff that needs to be properly vetted to a woman via a mansplanation.

Anyhow her image went viral, and the good people of Starbucks were forced to deny any wrong doing.

While there’s no sign of renovation taking place in the picture, one still has to wonder, “Why would some contractors at work merit keeping woman out?  Would they trip on an air line and take a nail to their ovaries, making them less valuable property?”

Of course, we must point out the irony that Starbucks recently vowed to hire 10,000 refugees instead of veterans, poor students, or you know…normal non-displaced people who can’t find work.

Regardless, when Starbucks started saying their growth plan was focused on China, where the water is metallic and counterfeit is rampant, it became less than an ideal investment.

Now they’re caught in the center of a political hot topic in a whole bunch of ways.  A viral picture of a sign on their door banning woman from entry does not help their situation.



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NYSE Extreme Tick Alert

Mothership detected a rare anomaly on the New York Stock Exchange Friday morning that may mark the climax of our rally for now.

It’s a shame to just now be seeing this, but I was distracted Friday, shooting aerial footage of a nearby Macy’s slated for decommissioning.

Nevertheless, good reader, it behooves you to be cautious this week.  An extreme, 3rd sigma NYSE tick pressed through the market Friday morning, see below:


Note: my NYSE tick is a bit different than most people’s NYSE ticks.  It is powered by IQ Feed, and pipes in raw tick data from the entire NYSE, unlike the more basic NYSE most people use and blindly take action from +/- 1000 ticks.

The behavior Friday was somewhat uncommon for an extreme up-tick.  Usually you can ride those bad boys all day long and look for the exits a few days later.  Friday sputtered out just after buyers clawed back the gap left behind last Monday.

All around, this is grounds for caution.



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NASDAQ Futures Lower To Start Sketchy Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Monday of February gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price chopped around inside last Friday’s range in balanced trade, however as we approach cash open there is some selling pressure hitting the tape.

The economic docket is light all week, and today we only have two T-bill auctions to monitor, both at 11:30 am, the 3- and 6-month duration, $34B and $28B respectively.

Last week began with a hard sell that was bought.  Then a gap down Tuesday that traded the same way, lower in the morning than higher in the afternoon.  Wednesday was gap up and range bound, and the rest of the week marked time.  The performance of each major US index can be seen below:


On Friday we printed a normal variation down on the NASDAQ.  After opening gap up closing the gap left behind when we came into last week, price stalled, and excess high formed and we poked below initial balance low for a second.  Then we slowly traded higher through the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push off the open and trade down to the open gap down at 5130.75.  Sellers continue lower, closing the gap down at 5119.25 as well.  Look for responsive buyers down at 5118.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5154.75.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5160 and test above all time high.  Look for sellers up at 5182 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 range trade, from 5156.50 to 5123.50.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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After Solid Winning Streak, iBankCoin Labs Flips To Neutral

It takes a certain humility to admit when you have no edge in a competition.  Like Super Bowl squares, no edge, I’m not buying.  Or predicting how Tesla will behave after their Wednesday earnings announcement.

I can’t call it.

After 4 weeks of bullish predictions from the IndexModel, it has flipped to neutral.  Like a bird on a wire, it would rather observe and chat than venture onto the busy street for snacks.

Heading into the second week of the second month of the first year under our new American authoritarian regime, which is cool, we love our leader ::quivers:: there is no call from iBankCoin labs.

Enjoy your American football match.

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Elon Musk Rolls Eyes at @Bro_Pair and His Vile Ilk; Remains on Trump Advisory Board

Tesla CEO and all around proper supreme leader Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) issued a statement via the municipal website Twitter Thursday evening explaining why he will remain on the President of the United States of America’s advisory board:


Unlike Uber CEO Travis Kalanick (whose last name sounds like a colon irrigation) our chief of both Tesla and SpaceX has a REAL stated purpose on this planet and intends to achieve his goals of advancing humanity regardless of who is in charge of the best country on Spaceship Earth.

For when you purpose is clear, that which is out of your control does not matter.  What matters is pursuing your goals as effectively as possible.  Being an advisor to President Trump is surly a way to remove roadblocks from your projects.

But Travis just made an app for hailing rides.  Literally a non-event.  Literally being copied and reproduced easily by several other companies.  Travis “colon irrigation” Kalanick is not an inspiring creator.  Seeing him quick to cave and mistakenly leave the useful post of Trump advisory like a fool is hardly surprising.

Travis is replaceable.

Conversely, Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) is not replaceable.  If he does not save us from the greedy oil grabbers and provide us transport off earth once our national parks are converted into fracking centers, the jig is up for humanity.  It will take more than a petty list from a no-neck Twitter choad to deter him from his quest to usher in a future where humans inhabit multiple planets.

This is bullish for Tesla, and investors will reward the share price of $TSLA upon realizing they have the finest steward of their money waking up every day and going to work to win instead of getting caught up in political guff.

Seek more leaders like Elon (all Praise) and invest in them aggressively.

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