Gap down in-range on NASDAQ ;-) here’s the morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly probing up beyond Thursday high.  Selling overnight was contained to the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near Thursday’s high.  At 8:30am non-farm payroll data came out worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have University of Michigan’s primary December reading of sentiment at 10am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a pro gap down after the Wednesday market holiday and the Tuesday trend down.  The first hour of trade was choppy and formed a wide initial balance.  We very briefly broke the IB to the downside just before New York lunch, right as the European markets were closing, and instantly discovered a strong responsive bid.  This was a failed auction to the downside and it led to a strong rally that traversed the entire daily range to go neutral before continuing higher to close the overnight gap.  We ended near session high.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6826.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6856.50 setting up a move to target 6900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 6764.50 setting up a move to target 6700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, initially spiking about 200 points lower at the open of globex at 6pm, before recovering 100 of the points within five minutes.  After chopping sideways for many hours, the futures began working lower again around 10pm.  As we approach cash open prices are hovering near the globex lows, at levels unseen since last Tuesday. At 8:15 ADP employment data came out below expectations.  At 8:30am trade balance data came out below expectations.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic agenda today we have ISM non-manufacturing/service composite at 10am, factory/durable goods orders at 10am, crude oil inventories at 11am, and both a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Traders also need to keep an eye on the mounting tensions between China and USA as trade wars and tariff commentary continue to affect NASDAQ prices.

Yesterday the NASDAQ was closed in observation of President George H.W. Bush’s death.  On Tuesday the NASDAQ printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down and tight open auction/chop.  Sellers pressed down through the low, which aligned with the Monday low.  This triggered a quick liquidation that erased the gap up we had to begin the week.  Sellers continued lower, trading down into last Wednesday’s conviction buying.  We ended the session at the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  The higher timeframe will be active as we are way out of balance.  Look for a gap-and-go lower.  Look for sellers to trade down through overnight low 6630.25 setting up a move to target 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to close the gap at 6530.50.  Look for buyers down at 6526.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and trade up through overnight high 6842 setting up a move to target 6882.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, taking out the Monday cash low before discovering a responsive bid about 15 points ahead of the Friday gap left behind over the weekend on Trade Wars updates over the weekend.  As we approach cash open price is hovering inside Monday’s lower quadrant.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 1pm. Reminder: the stock market is closed tomorrow in observation of President George H.W. Bush’s death.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a pro gap up and open two-way auction.  The chop eventually led to a range extension lower. Responsive buyers (responsive relative to Monday open, initiative relative to Friday close) prevented price from probing very far into the weekend gap, and we ended the day back up at session midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7059.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7068.  Look for sellers up at 7077.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7114 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower trading down through overnight low 6980.25 setting up a weekend gap fill down to 6965.75.  Look for buyers at the composite VPOC 66950 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price shot higher on presumed progress in the tariff discussions, or trade wars between China and the US.  As we approach cash open price is trading at price levels unseen since November 9th.

On the economic calendar today we have construction spending at 10am, ISM manufacturing/employment at 10am, and a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.  Reminder, US markets will be closed Wednesday December 5th in observation of the death of George H.W. Bush, 41st President of the United States.

Last week began with a gap up and buyers asserting price higher.  Price continued to work higher all week long, even trending higher Wednesday.  The week ended near high-of-week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down and sellers attempting lower.  Responsive buyers stepped in just below Thursday’s midpoint and shortly after 10:30am we were range extension up.  Price then chopped along the daily midpoint for much of the session before rallying to a new weekly high in the afternoon, pressing up through the composite high volume node at 6950.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  We are coming into the first trading day in December way out of balance and there is an uncommon, nearly unplanned market holiday mid-week.  Look for the higher time frame to be engaging the market early on. Eventually look for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7040.  Look for buyers down at 7023.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7139, setting up a move to target 7150 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 6965.75.  Expect some chop at the composite VPOC 6950, then look for buyers down at 6922.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

After penning my last entry I embarked on an hour-long drive up a country highway.  They’ve spent the last decade building this stretch of road.  It’s flat and smooth.  It was unseasonably warm and sunny so I starting thinking.  A starling murmuration gyrated above the road, and I remembered how I ended the first paragraph of my entry with ‘Hail Satan.’  What an absurd thing to write, on a Sunday no less.

I have a strange way of coping with things like death or taxes or insurance or organized religion.  Apparently I write shock blogs, worship billionaires, and praise the numeric output of algorithms.

At the core of these behaviors my intentions are pure—to extract as many US dollars as possible from the financial complex whilst keeping a trader blog which conveys and demonstrates real-time, for all the world to see, the mindset that allows a person to consistently engage markets in a repeatable matter to produce consistent results

The blogging is somewhat self-serving, just like weight training.  It serves as a sick kind of mirror I use to find and suss out any odd goblins hiding in my psyche.  I hope it adds value for the reader who is struggling to refine their own mental gymnastic skills and learn to trade.

Near the end of my drive a starling torpedoed just above my windshield that was apparently playing some high speed game of chicken with my car.  I came back to the present and realized how my recent trading performance, while only minorly tweaked, had produced serendipitous returns and that they appeared to have gone to my head, turning me into some kind of overly aggressive rage blogger.  The last thing I want is for that to spill over into my trading or day-to-day behavior.  Sick kind of mirror blogging is.

I apologize for my last blog and acknowledge that it made some dumb claims.  Foremost, asserting that science caused Christianity to shatter.  Christianity shattered into a thousand pieces certainly more so due to the rebellious protestants of Germany.  Science played a lesser role in dissolving the sadistic claim to control the outcome of all mortal souls made by Roman Catholicism.  Not that any of it matters.  The end of one dragon created a thousand more or something.  Again, I don’t know about these things except that I don’t think they really matter to me.  I am simply tasked with earning enough income to relive me of any obligation to an employer or master and being kind to all earth’s inhabitants.

To all earth’s inhabitants.  That includes the political evangelists from the south.  So I am sorry.  I feel bad about the crazy things I’ve written today and many more times in the past, and I will be taking a hard stance against writing that kind of guff again.

I am going to spend the rest of this warm winter day pulling weeds.

mahalo, namaste, and amen

H.W. is the first President I remember from my childhood.  “Read my lips: no new taxes,” stuck with me.  I didn’t understand taxes, but I saw that taxes angered adults, and this feller was going on the TV and promising no new taxes.  So he seemed like a pretty solid dude.  I knew about as much about politics then as I do now, which is next to nothing.  But I remember liking conservatives back then, back before it became a political arm of the evangelical christian institution, which I find to be the most vile entity on the planet. Hail Satan.

It’s not the christian people I have an issue with.  It’s the institution, and how they are invading our political system and jeopardizing the foundations of America.  The America H.W. made stronger during Desert Storm—a sweeping victory that sent a message across the world that America is the best, #1.

This year has had a transitional vibe to it.  The passing of our 41st President here at year-end only solidifies that feeling.  Enough about feelings and christians.  The algorithms are all bullish heading into the first week of December.

And by golly, all I am here to do is carry out the commands of my robot overlords.  The rest of the information generated by humans interacting with the world is noise when it comes to short term trading, and I need to trade well short term.

I slayed last week.  Slayed.  Best week in months.  I hope you did too, and I hope you all have a prosperous go at the markets this December.

Human interaction is actionable long-term.  This requires long-term patience, short-term urgency.  Like climate change.  We need to urgently address this issue which is why it is so important that we defend the efforts of Elon Musk and his crack team of engineers and scientists.  They are showing us what happens when capitalism attacks an issue—progress.  They seem to even have NASA stoked again and doing good work.  Would NASA be planning to send folks to Mars had it not been for the curious developments at SpaceX?  We don’t know.  That is a different simulation entirely.

What we do know is that TSLA is the absolute best long term investment available on the public stock markets.  Also we know that science shattered the absurd grip christians had on the modern world once before (indulgence, anyone?), and science will topple these flat-earth, conspiracy-loving psychopaths again.

It is best to side with the scientists, believe me.

And the robots.  And the robots are bullish heading into the first week of December.

Behave accordingly.

001010111011

Exodus members, the 211th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price was balanced overnight, trading inside of the Thursday range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Thursday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have Chicago purchasing manager at 9:45am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap down and two-way auction.  Sellers pressed us range extension down, however the LVN observed as part of yesterday’s hypo 2 was defended by responsive buyers.  Said buyers eventually worked a full gap fill and briefly pressed us RE up, into a neutral print, before we drifted back to the mid by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, taking out overnight high 6917.50 setting up a move to test beyond the Thursday high 6943.75.  Look for sellers at the composite VPOC 6950 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7000.  Look for sellers up at 7022.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 6871.50 and continue lower, down through Thursday low 6843 setting up a move to target 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price poked 4 points above the Wednesday cash high before coming into balance in the upper quad of Wednesday’s trend day.  As we approach cash open price is hovering below 6900 in the middle of a microbalance.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, 3-, 6-, and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11am, Fed speak from two members at 2pm alongside the 2pm Fed release of minutes from their last meeting, and Fed balance sheet at 4:30p.

Yesterday we printed a trend day.  The day began with a gap up out of range and slight drift lower.  Buyers rejected an attempt to trade back into the Tuesday range and as we went into the Jerome Powell talk at 11am price was compressed into a coil.  Something the Fed chairman said shot prices higher which set off a trend up to the huge microcomposite value area low at 6800.  Price soon traveled beyond 6800 and sustained trade inside the big value, setting up a move to traverse the entire value and tag the top around 6900.  We closed pretty much at session high.

Trend day.

The only caveat is value never shifted higher from where it was set during the morning coil.  The daily VPOC still resides down at 6735.50.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6923.50.  From here we continue higher, up to the composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 6866 and sustain trade below LVN at 6860.50 setting up a move down to 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers erase the entire Powell rally, trade us back down to the ‘scene of the crime’ at 6750.  We tag the Wedneday NVPOC at 6735.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, and as we approach cash open prices are hovering above the midpoint of last Monday’s (Monday before Thanksgiving) liquidation day.  At 8:30am GDP came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have oil inventories at 8:30am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at 11:30am in New York, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and open two-way auction.  Responsive buyers stepped in just below overnight low and then began a campaign to take close the overnight gap.  We then returned to the daily midpoint, which buyers defended early in the afternoon, setting up a move back towards session high near end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher.   Up above, 6800 aligns nicely with the value area low of a major zone that formed in the weeks leading up to the holiday.  Look for sellers to defend here.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6811 setting up a move to tag the VPOC of that big value area at 6873 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6712.25.  Look for buyers down at 6693.50 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of globex until about 3am when a recycled ‘trade wars’ news piece caused prices to spike higher.  The spike looks algo driven, and it cleared out several levels of resistance in its wake.  Price subsequently erased the gains and as we approach cash open prices are hovering below Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have case-shiller home price index at 9am, consumer confidence at 10am, a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 5-year note auction at 1pm, and Fed speak from three Fed bankers at 2:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap up and beyond the Friday half-day range.  Buyers drove higher on the open, stalling just before closing the gap left behind last Monday-to-Tuesday.  Responsive sellers pushed the market range extension down but initiative buyers (initiative relative to Friday’s close, responsive relative to Monday’s open) rejected a move back into Friday range.  We then rallied into the close, traversing the entire day’s range, closing the last Monday-to-Tuesday gap, and closing near session high.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6670.  From here we continue higher, back up to the algo spike ‘scene of the crime’ taking out overnight high 6712.50.  This triggers a rally up to 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out after closing overnight gap 6670 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 6622.25 and continue lower, down to 6591.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves: