iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,075 Blog Posts

Week starts with a quick -100 gap, here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final week of October gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price opened gap down Sunday evening, rotating lower, bouncing once, then rotating lower a second time—taking out the Friday low. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside Friday’s range, along the low.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a big sell Monday. Downward pressure through Thursday morning then a minor relief rally into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up in range that sellers drove down into on the open, quickly resolving the gap and continuing lower into the bottom quadrant of Thursday’s range. Price was choppy through about noon, pressing range extension down along the way but never taking out the Thursday low. The afternoon was all buyers. A steady rotation up eventually recovered the early selling and a new high of day way made near the close. Closed near the highs.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight high 11,642 on the way to closing the overnight gap at 11,661. Look for sellers up at 11,700 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 11,543 and tag 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 11,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Trading for the thrill is a fool’s game

This weekend the whole pandemic really started triggering me. Your humble market practitioner and adventurer RAUL has survived some exterme-ose events in his day. High speed skateboard wrecks, scaling buildings without alerting the law-dogs, Hawaiian rip-tides, mountain plane crashes and so on. My thirst for adventure is rarely quenched. I thrive outside the comfort zone and sitting around watching the hecking Netflix is b-o-r-i-n-g. I need something higher octane or I risk the old mistake of seeking thrills in the financial markets.

Do you know how dumb it is to try and catch a jag from trading? I can most certainly assure you that will result in financial ruin.

Trading is trading is trading. You sit down. Plan your trades, trade your plan then you go eat lunch. There is nothing exciting about it.

I regularly salvage a day—going from down 5-600 bucks to ending up 1600. It does nothing to me emotionally or physically. I’d feel the exact same if the day ended right where it was initially, down -600. Money is merely a means to politely being able to say no to people. I can turn a trick just as easily downtown, or pour some cement or design a plant wall. Diversify your income streams lads. Do this as early and often as possible. It goes miles towards cultivating the indifferent strength of a hardened speculator.

Capitalism is the game. It is not perfect. But it rewards the callous. You don’t have to be a dick. You’re better off being a crocodile. Go experiment with looking like a log for a few days then snapping into high speed action—making to kill your prey in short order. Capitalism.

Switching over to Stocklabs from here on out. I had the pleasure of catching up with our dear pal The Fly last week via telephone. He gave me the grande tour and I’ll tell you what—StockLabs is the nuts and the shaft. Thursday afternoon, after closing out the SQQQ position taken early Monday, I’m sitting inside Stocklabs, on the Livefloor, watching sentiment in real time, and it became abundantly clear a bid was about to press into the market. The data is intuitive. I traded the bounce and that was it. I’m hooked.

This week’s Strategy Session looks mostly the same as any other one except now it is powered by Stocklabs. I may add some information to the report in the future, but for now I am tiredt.

I am bullish into month-end, into the full-moon halloween, and I am considering dressing up like some kind of real horror show and terrorizing the locals.\

As always, TBD.

Raul Santos, October 25th 2020

And now, the 309th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.


I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.60, medium bull*. Expect a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias. Then watch for GDP Thursday morning then big tech earnings Thursday afternoon to put some direction into the markets heading into the weekend.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] BULLISH bias triggered, see Section V

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big sell Monday. Downward pressure through Thursday morning then a minor relief rally into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations bearish for a second week. Key Tech sector under pressure while Utilities see strength.

caution bulls

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Clear bullish bias into month-end

IndexModel is flagging eRCS bullish after being bearish last week. There are no other conflicting signals coming out of the Exodus quant. Clear bullish bias into month-end.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors continue leg up, Transports continue balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Nothing new for Transports. They remain balanced.

See below:

Semiconductors are consolidating, slightly drifting lower, but there appears to be some logical support below and discovery up continues to be the call.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling extreme rose colored sunglasses. This bullish bias calls for a calm drift, with a slight upward bias.

VI. Exodus hybrid overbought

On Monday, October 5th Exodus flagged hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Monday, October 19th end-of-day.

The performance of each major index thus far is shown below:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“All cruelty springs from weakness.” – Seneca

Trade simple, examine your anger

Comments »

NASDAQ down a touch, the lows are weak, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price was balanced overnight until about 7:30pm when a sharp sell-spike hit, likely related to some of the COVID-19 relief talks coming out. The move stalled just a few ticks above the current low print down at 11,585 which was set around 5am Wednesday. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly better than expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the middle of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 1-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap up.Sellers resolved the small gap during the open before a strong buy spike sent price up near the Tuesday high. This would be all the rally we could muster, the auction stalled and fell to a new low of day. The action was choppy, staying inside of Tuesday’s range, making time as investors wait to hear updates on the relief bill. The session ended with price smack in the middle of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 11,591 setting up a move to target 11,558.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a gap fill up to 11,695.25 then continue higher, trading up through overnight high 11,705.75 on their way to tagging Monday’s naked VPOC at 11,800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Battleground levels heading into Tuesday on the NASDAQ, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price shot higher overnight, driving unidirectional up from closing bell until about 8pm New York. The rest of the session was spent balancing down in the lower quadrant until about 8am when sellers made a push out of the Globex range. At 8:30am housing starts and permits came out in line with expectations (which remain high). As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Monday’s range.

There are no other important economic events scheduled today. Some low-impact Fed speak is due out in the afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a trend down. The day began with a slight gap up. A brief open-two-way auction took place right along Friday’s volume point of control before sellers stepped in and drove down into the overnight gap and took out the Friday low in the same swoop. Initially buyers stepped in ahead of the Thursday (weekly) low however, and there was a battle along the lows until about 2pm when sellers overwhelmed the bid and the auction continued lower. Of note, the daily VPOC never shifted lower from those mid-day battle levels—it remains near last week’s low. The selling continued however, trading down right to the key fibonocci level right at 11,600, that we see if we draw a retrace from the the 10/6 low to the 10/13 high. We ended the session on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,648.75. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 11,633.50. Look for buyers down at 11,558.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 11,753 setting up a move to tag the Monday VPOC at 11,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ starts the week up a quick +100 here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are up +100 ahead of opening bell after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, spiking up on the Globex open last night before stabilizing around 11pm New York along the bottom-side of Friday’s midpoint. Then around 3am buyers reclaimed the Friday mid, and as we approach cash open price is hovering right on the mid. At 8am Fed Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the role of the U. S. dollar as reserve currency and said the Fed is taking a closer look at issuing a digital currency. The announcement spiked bitcoin higher but equity markets are so far non-reactive.

Also on the economic calendar today we have housing market index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week kicked off with a choppy open, slight selling before a big Monday rally. Price consolidated the gains through Wednesday morning. Then selling pressure was seen into the second half of the week and into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up beyond the Thursday range. Buyers campaigned up into the Wednesday range, tagging the midpoint before 10:30am. Responsive sellers here overwhelmed the big and the auction reversed course—pressing range extension down on its way to closing the overnight gap. Price consolidated here, below the daily mid, for several hours. Then there was strong selling during the closing hour, pressing to to a new session low and tagging the Thursday naked VPOC.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and closing the gap down to 11797.75. Sellers continue lower, filling last Friday’s open gap down at 11,726.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, taking out overnight high 11,949.25 on their way to tagging 12,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 12,037 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Well shoot—IndexModel is bearish

Closed out my SQQQ position last Monday, locking in the about -20% loss but felt victorious after seeing that big rally happen. Bids held up the market until mid-Wednesday. Chop and downside was the theme into the weekend. I’ve been running around in the woods, stirring up a bit of unrest amongst the nearby farmers as I seek a clear picture of the American Dream. All-in-all this idle time in the woods has me feeling a bit like Cougar (Top Gun, 1986) unable to reengage. Now my terminal is telling me it has radar lock and the beeping won’t stop until I click the buttons to take the shot.

We’re really in the meat of it all now aren’t we? Fed Chairman J.Powell is due out Monday at 8am and that alone is enough to unsettle the speculator class. What in the name of fixed-up banking could be urgent enough to call attention second thing Monday morning? This wasp has something to say and the timing robots do too—all while autumn is taking a turn into darkness, the spiders are pressing into the warm shelter of Mothership and the big vote, that nilla wafer’s worth of democracy, is in the oven.

There is a joker in the deck this week. Daddy-o Elon, mankind’s last hope for a technocratic future, is set to report earnings Wednesday over at his main outfit Tesla. Enough obsession is given to the man and his prospects that his numbers might be enough to turn the whole damned equity complex.

Bearish until we hear what Dad has to say. Will initiate a fresh SQQQ some time Monday.

Raul Santos, October 18th, 2020

And now for this week’s Strategy Session. Enjoy.


I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.10, neutral*. Choppy Monday, then look for sellers to take control of the tape, working price lower into the weekend.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] BEARISH bias triggered, see Section V

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big gap up and rally Monday. Consolidation Through Wednesday morning then selling pressure for the rest of the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Mixed rotations. Staples and Utilities seeing inflows, suggesting an increase in risk aversion.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows muted, but skewed slightly bearish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Mixed Signals until Tuesday

IndexModel is flagging RCS bearish for the first time since June 14th. The current Exodus bullish overbought cycle runs through end-of-day Monday. With these signals crossed my convictions remain low. However I more heavily weight the reading from IndexModel therefore I am coming into the week slightly bearish and my bearishness will increase into Tuesday.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2020) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors continue leg up, Transports continue balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports remain balanced.

See below:

Semiconductors are holding onto and continuing their discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling rose colored sunglasses. This bearish bias suggests subtle decay under the surface of otherwise strong indices. Calls for price to move lower over the next five trading days.

VI. Exodus hybrid overbought

On Monday, October 5th Exodus flagged hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Monday, October 19th end-of-day.

The performance of each major index thus far is shown below:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows.” – Epictetus

Trade simple, always be learning

Comments »

I was wrong, stayed wrong and I am sorry

I have been plagued by overconfidence my entire life. There was nothing wrong with the bearish call I made several weeks back. It had an okay foundation. Not great, but a helluva lot better than some of the structures I’ve seen built by other speculators. But dammit, errors beget more errors and my first error was tuning out a few weeks ago and resting on the laurels of my convictions without monitoring the systems that brought me to a place of consistency.

Instead I headed out east and spent three days on the hunt for red October. I became more fascinated with the color red than is perhaps normal, wandering up the gentle hills of Vermont seeking visual treasure and perhaps a bit of spiritual enlightenment.

Which is fine as long as I pull up Exodus and check out what the thousands of sensors Le Fly has positioned throughout the global financial complex are seeing. The Fly built a fucking machine that doesn’t blink. It doesn’t waste time, reading the opinions of traders or thumbing through instagram videos. It stays on task and I didn’t even have the decency to show up and listen to the thing. This is not fine.

On Monday night, September 28th, Exodus tipped its hand, not-so-subtly inferring that bulls were back in the driver’s seat. Part of me was paying attention but apparently not enough to correct my position:

Okay enough of this loathing. A man’s life is too brief to spend any more time hosting a pity party. I am out of position and the last ten trading sessions have affirmed that beyond reasonable doubt. Come Monday I will cut the wretched SQQQ position I took on several weeks back. As of now it sits down a cool -19.48% and I suspect it could be worse by Monday morning.

I will work Monday and perhaps Tuesday but then I am going into the woods to help Elder Raul do some lumber jacking.

There is so much I’d like to say about Michigan being at the epicenter of another national news story, about these bugaloo bunyon and the other butt fuck boys, but I will simply state that it does not surprise me they were operating up here in the murder mitten. I traverse these lands far and wide, moving rocks and wood in a wheel-like manner from the main sprocket Detroit. I encounter these “militia” psychos constantly. They are a dumb and depraved, angry lot, tailgating and flying big flags with snakes and swear words and the like. They want to be left along, yet they fly giant flags…figure that one out. Pair that with an intelligent and strong female governor, leading a state split right down the middle politically, and you have the michelin recipe for extremism.

Your humble boy Raul is an extremist of sorts, bent on never working for anyone, and for that matter, working as little as possible. I’d rather read books and sit by the warm glow of a fire. Or swim laps. Or cavort around the city spreading cheer. This state breeds extremists, man.

So that’s it. I had a sound reason to be bearish. I neglected all the signals at my disposal telling me my reasoning was wrong. Then I committed the fatal error of staying wrong. If it were not for my risk management, this could have been a major disaster. I am sorry. It feels shitty being out of position and I’ll do my absolute best to ensure it doesn’t happen again.

Raul Santos, October 11th, 2020

And now, here is this week’s Strategy Session. Enjoy:


I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.7, medium bull*. Expect a calm drift through the beginning of the week. Then watch the big bank earnings out Wednesday morning to put some upward motion to index prices.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses (e[RCS]) bullish bias triggered, see Section V

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Calm and upward through mid-Tuesday, then a sharp sell into Tuesday close. The rest of the week was a strong rally.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Strong, sector-wide rotation upward.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed bullish with a broad spectrum of industry groups faring well.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Exodus tipped its hand on September 28th

Really upset to have missed the big Hybrid Change % move that happened back on September 28th. That was the subtle statistic that should have made any bearish convictions vanish.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2020) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors new leg up, Transports stay balanced

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are above their pivot point, nestled in their multi-year range.

See below:

Semiconductors negated that island top candle we’ve been watching for the last few weeks and began a fresh leg of discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling extreme rose colored sunglasses. This bias calls for a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

VI. Exodus hybrid overbought

On Monday, October 5th Exodus flagged hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Monday, October 19th end-of-day.

The performance of each major index thus far is shown below:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“When you’re among peaceful, generous, happy people, you’re inclined to feel happy and peaceful yourself.” – Thubten Yeshe

Trade simple, surround yourself with kind and virtuous peers

Comments »

Out of sync // headed to Vermont

About two or three weeks back I started feeling off, cognitively. I have been out of position since, mentally. I haven’t had a good sit in a while, and to be frank I’ve been working too hardt.

That is why in an hour I am scheduled to have my nose hole probed and mucus submitted for COVID-19 testing. Packing up my shit and heading to Vermont after that. To chase the fall colors. The hunt for red October, if you will.

I haven’t escaped the fish tank since February and I feel sick in the brain.

Physically I have the vegetarian strength of 10 flesh eaters. Every morning a wake up with a cock as hard as angle iron that serves as an alarm clock around 5:45am. I fast until about 10am then take coffee like I take women; hot, Black and strong. My sinuses are so clear, my sense of smell so acute I can tell which neighbor is doing laundry by the stench of their exhaust. I can smell a cigarette smoker five cars ahead. My hair and beard are long and my skin is olive. My poops cut off so cleanly I needn’t wipe. My urine is clear and the whites of my eyeballs are hauntingly bright. My muscles are all shiny and curvy and nestled in the perfect amount of body hair.

But my mind is off.

Therefore I need to head into the woods and sit and listen to the way the wind bends the trees. Maybe eat some mushrooms and share a table with the pagan gods. LEGALIZED IT.

No trading until then. Also no Sunday Exodus Strategy Session because I will not be back from the woods until mid-week.

Until then, I remain long my fastidiously groomed selection of true corporate leadership: TSLA, TWTR, SQ, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, BYND and so on.

Also I have a giant anchor holding said fastidious portfolio in place (or worse) via SQQQ. I may cut the rope on that one from the road. You’ll have to follow me on Noble Jack’s Twitter for that update (@indexmodel).

Until we correspond again, I remain.

curiously,

Raul Santos, September 30th, 2020

 

Comments »

No edge for Raul but here is Tuesday trading plan

Quick note: After bears were trounced yesterday and with month-end/quarter-end only two days out, my bearish convictions have been called into question  at a time when the likelihood of a big move is high. I have no edge statistically, and my perception is off. Today we have a gap down in range and normally I would fade this gap higher, but I will not be participating. Now back to your regularly scheduled trading plan.

-Raul Santos, September 29th 2020

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday, the second-to-last day of Q3 with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was steady last night, gently pressing up beyond the Monday high until about 10pm New York. From then onward the rotation was lower. At 8:30am advance good trade balance data came out mixed, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a pro gap up opening up at levels unseen since September 16th. The morning was spent attempting lower. Sellers drove down into the opening bell then held the mid on three attempts at it. Each time sellers made a slightly lower low, but not much progress. Around 12:30pm, after failing three times to take out the September 16th low, buyers stepped in and reclaimed the mid then continued higher, pressing neutral. We ended the day on the highs, tagging the September 16th naked VPOC right during the closing ramp.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,395.50. Buyers take out overnight high 11,448.75 clearing the way for a run up to 11,480.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 11,333.75 and tag 11,311.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers take out the Monday low 11,226.25 setting up a Friday gap fill down to 11,135.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

 

Comments »

Pro gap up into final days of September, here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. After a two way auction from Globex open until about 10pm a steady campaign higher took hold. Price has rallied unidirectional up since, and as we approach cash open price is hovering inside the upper quadrant of the 09/17 range (two Thursday’s back).

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Recall last week started with a big down gap then lots of chop. Price chopped higher through Tuesday then lower until Friday morning. Then a big trend up Friday and into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend up. The day began with a pretty wide and choppy two-way auction, chopping all over the midpoint several times before around 10:20am when buyers took control of the tape. From then on we were trend up, ending the week just below the weekly high and near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze on the open, squeezing up to 11,442.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,135.25. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 11,125. Look for buyers down at 11,100 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 10,960 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »