Wednesday, January 18, 2017
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,812 Blog Posts

AHOY! NASDAQ Prints Abnormal Globex Session

capron

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring a tight [but normal] range on abnormally low volume.

Volume was so low overnight it exceeded 1st sigma, or ‘normal’ conditions.  This comes after near two months of normal Globex trading stats.

Price worked higher overnight but held yesterday’s range.  Also of note, pertaining to Globex, is our current high water mark.  It was set during Globex and the NASDAQ rarely marks swing high/low during the overnight session.

On the economic docket today we have Wholesale Inventories at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed the dreaded normal day–a rare day type occurring only 5.66% of the time [according to a recent study].  These tend to show up at-or-near inflection points.

We came into the week with a slight gap up and sellers pressed into it.  The morning selling abated before the range could be extended and we printed time until the ramping hour, when price did the afternoon ramp.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4779.50.  Sellers push down through overnight low 4777.50.  Sellers probe below last Friday’s low 4759.75.  Look for responsive buying down at 4757 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4788.50 and test up through the Globex high mark at 4800.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at the measured move levels at 4806 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up to 4822 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation takes hold and we test lower, down to 4745.50 and close the gap at 4743.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

080932016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

08092016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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The Dip Was Shallow – Model Suggests More Bull Market Action

chooseacup

Greetings from the heart of iBankCoin laboratories.  The morning rounds have been complete.  The auction-theory machine has been calibrated and oiled and told it was special.  In return, like an octopus picking the winner of the Super Bowl, we are being told the bull market will resume.

However, unlike some clairvoyant octo-ped, the model sets forth this forecast using logic–cold and dead mathematics.  The numbers have their limitations, sure.  Man’s quest to put a formula behind every happening in the universe is an attempt to understand that which we cannot–that which often times is best explained by the existence of Ancient Aliens.  Still, it is our best means of objectivity, therefore it is our foundation stone for prediction.

Therefore after having to oblige the model and carry a short bias last week, which kind of worked out on paper but did not make me much money, the model and I are back on the bull squad.

Exodus members, the 91st Edition of Strategy Session is published.  Be sure to check it out!

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Debbie Wasserman Schultz Is The #DNCLeak Source

DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-FL, speaks at the Democratic National Committee's Womens Leadership Forum Issues Conference in Washington, DC on September 19, 2014. AFP PHOTO/Mandel NGAN        (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

Juilan Assange, founder of WikiLeaks, gave an interview earlier this week on PBS.  He was asked who the sources were on the DNC Leaks.  His answer?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz and other DNC members.

This is getting zero airtime–Schultz leaks information leading to her resignation and new role as a senior advisor on the Clinton campaign?

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All The Action Is Found Trading Stocks

traders

The index trader and the index investor are getting a bad deal right now.

These trading conditions are prime for error if you only trade an index.

Ranges are tight. Every globex session is normal. Rotations rarely have follow-thru.

The action is slow and getting caught full size into the lunch lull is a recipe for disaster.

Your sugars tank then little things can irritate you. Objective thinking is abandoned and gut decisions override your plan. Maybe you trade more size than normal since range is so small. Then poof, two-months of gains given back in one trade.

Trading from the outside-in usually works best in these conditions–fading the big moves using market profile levels.

Or you can switch over to trading stocks. I have not put the work in yet to get back into trading stocks, but if I even thinking about buying a stock I would be taking advantage of the free After Hours trials going on this week.

It is iBankCoin’s daily broadcast where Option Addict lays out a contextual framework then sets up stocks to trade. Members have been killing it in this slow, trending tape.

I will stick to NASDAQ futures because my planning and statistics and charts and order flow feel give me an edge. When it’s slow I just back off. But soon, when I’m ready to commit more time to work and grind out stocks, you best believe I will be watching After Hours. You should too.

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Trump: “Bernie Made A Bad Deal” “[Hillary] Is The Devil”

trump-face

Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump opines on the DNC Convention–the way several speakers canoodled the nice old man Mr. Bernie Sanders.

Then he calls his Democratic opponent Hillary Rodham Clinton the devil:

The comments were made during a rally in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, a small town between Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. Donald’s next stop is Denver where he will speak to the cannabis lovers about walls and bad deals.

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No Volatility Overnight, Weak High Puts Bears At Risk, And Key NASDAQ Trading Levels

nasdggggg

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price drifted lower overnight but price held the lower-mid range of yesterday’s regular session.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Apps reading was not as poor as last week (-3.5% vs -11.2% prior) and at 8:15am the ADP Employment Change data was better than expected (Change for Jul 179.0K vs 170.0K Est).

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing at 10 am.  As soon as today, however, the markets may start to pause ahead of NonFarm Payroll, which is scheduled for release Friday morning at 8:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap down, buyers pushed the NASDAQ back to flat where we found a responsive seller.  Seller then drove price lower all morning before sustaining trade down at this week’s ATR(14) band low.  Sellers made one additional attempt lower just after lunch which revealed a strong responsive bid.  The market then rallied nearly 40 points up into the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4714.50.  From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 4717.25 triggering a rally up to 4735 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers defend right at the overnight gap fill, right at 4714.50 and turn the market lower, gunning for overnight low 4698.  They achieve it, then we settle into a range from about 4720 – 4700.

Hypo 3 sellers are become initiative and aggressive.  Markets gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 4698 and test below yesterday’s low 4681.75 setting up a move to target the open gap at 4663.75 before two-way trade ensues.

Levels:

080332016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

08032016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Sell-Bots And Pajama Traders Show Up Again Overnight

fredrick

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Monday’s range overnight, first working higher.  The Globex rally ended ahead of Monday’s high when a strong sell pushed through the marketplace around midnight eastern time.  The selling ended at the same prices as we saw yesterday afternoon–which line up with last Friday’s high.

On the economic docket today we have Personal Income/Spending at 8:30am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  We opened flat and after a brief test lower participants drove price higher all morning and achieved new all-time highs.  An aggressive responsive sell occurred during the lunch hour but sellers never became initiative.  Instead we balanced out into Monday’s close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the soft-handed, sell-bot inventory and close the gap up to 4745.  The buying drys up around 4570 and the market rolls over and takes out overnight low 4732 setting up a move to target 4727 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers are more aggressive early on and manage to keep the overnight gap open.  They take out overnight low 4732 then sustain trade below 4726 setting up a move to target 4719.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers close gap up to 4745 then sustain trade above 4750 setting up a move to take out overnight high 4759.50 then continue probing all-time highs.  Look for sellers around the measured move target of 4765.25.

Levels:

08022016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

08022016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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The Siege of Miami Has Begun: Zika Mosquitoes Surround The City

zika-head

It was all fun and games when Zika was a distant threat for vacationers and residents of tropical locales.  Now the genetically modified bloodsuckers are stateside, and these citizen bugs have already infected at least 10 people.

Florida confirmed Monday 10 more homegrown cases of Zika in people infected by local mosquitoes, leading federal health officials to advise women who are pregnant to avoid the area just north of downtown Miami where Zika is spreading.

Women have visited the Wynwood neighborhood in Miamia since June 15 should avoid getting pregnant for at least eight weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Zika appears to have begun spreading among mosquitoes in this area around June 15.

This is the first time in recent memory that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned people to avoid a community in the continental U.S. because of an outbreak, said Thomas Frieden, CDC director.

At Florida’s request, the CDC is sending an emergency response team to the state to help control the outbreak. Two CDC staff are already working in Florida, with six more planning to join them.

The new Zika cases in Miami bring the number of Zika infections spread by local mosquitoes — as opposed to foreign travel — to 14.

Controlling the cluster of Zika cases is proving difficult, Frieden said.

“We don’t have ideal ways to control the mosquitoes that control Zika,” Frieden said. “In Miami, aggressive mosquito control measures don’t seem to be working as well as we would have liked.”

This is a way bigger deal than is being reported amid an election year.  The attack is being conducted by millions of Ant-Man sized soldiers, fully prepared to give their life in their campaign to spread the brain damaging virus.

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Bernie Sanders Art School Student Defaces DNC Convention Sign

bern-her

Why make your own sign when you can deface your opponents for free?  The silenced [potential] majority of Democrats are a clever bunch.  Their latest stunt?  Craft time with the DNC convention signs which, with a bit of blue marker can be reworded to say ‘stop her’ instead of ‘stronger together’.

bern-her

A good portion of last week’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia was spent asking Bernie’s fans to vote for Hillary Clinton this November.  Whether or not they succeed in uniting the party may decide the outcome of this November’s election.

Data at FiveThirtyEight swung back in Hillary’s favor after Michelle Obama’s speech.  The poltitical statistics website put Trump in the lead briefly after hackers released over 15,000 raw emails from the DNC servers which showed members of the party colluding against Bernie during the primaries.

The sign also is embellished with Bernie stickers, much like most subcompact cars in every major metropolitan area.

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Olympians Need Only Three Teaspoons of Rio Water To Contract A Virus

poopwaterspoon

Late-last week reports began to surface about the garbage, human body, and sewage waiting for Olympic athletes at Guanabara Bay, the body of water where several events are scheduled to begin later this week.

The Associated Press sent some independent scientists down to Rio to see just how funky the water is.

SPOILER ALERT: It is putrid.

A report commissioned by the Associated Press has revealed that water in Rio’s Olympic and Paralympic venues holds viral levels 1.7m times what would be considered alarming in the United States and Europe just five days before the Games get underway

Earlier this year several athletes opted out of the global competition due to risk of contracting the mosquito borne Zika virus.  It now appears the bigger risk athletes face is contact with the open water surrounding the games.

 

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