Not ready to produce a strategy session yet, it takes two weeks to put the model back in motion, but I did want to fire up the blog and put some thoughts into the hallowed halls of men who wake up and decide to go take money from the exchanges (and elsewhere).
We have another crisis on our hands lads, the regional banks, in their infinite quest to sit around on their frumpy bums creating wealth for themselves without doing physical work, failed to immunize their deposits. It is like they never studied basic treasury management. Immunization. I think they teach it in the 400 level finance classes. They took on too much duration risk, accounted for it in a sketchy manner THAT WAS ALLOWED, mind you, and have been bleeding all over the ground like a pig on a butcher’s hook since the Fed began its quantitative tightening scheme. But they’re as much victim as villain so let’s cut them a bit of slack.
Jerome Powell is completely unfit to run the Federal Reserve. On a cold day back in November 2017 Donald “time for jail” Trump usurped the rightful head of the Fed, the poised and excellent madam secretary Janet Yellen, installing a frail man who fears inflation and crypto and anything that resembles progress. He has no idea how much damage his actions have caused by pulling the proverbial emergency brake on our economy whilst we ascended the icy mountains to Valhalla. Maybe because he is afraid of heights. Fuckin’ guy sent the powder sled into a pretty steep ravine, and we’ve just sat here, freezing our asses off, until two week’s ago when folks started to die.
Thank the heavens our dear and sweet brawler Janet Yellen is still nearby, operating the Treasury—nearby enough to roll up with her crane and hoist us out of this hole. This charming woman, she truly is incredible folks, goes into the Senate, the lion pit, and battles one vicious fool after another with the skill of an ancient samurai. It truly has been a joy to see her operate these last ten or so days.
But let’s not stray too far from the ‘bad actors’, in particular a certain power hungry psychopath by the name of Peter Thiel. If you’ve never read Ryan Holiday’s book Conspiracy I suggest doing do asap. It is important context for understanding our current situation. Much like crypto degenerates create private discord groups where they discuss how and when they will fleece the retail plebeian, silicon valley ceos, venture capitalists, no dang good do nothings, they have private chat rooms and inside these dens of iniquity they take marching orders from Pete Teal okay? He said run the deposits, they did, and SVB went kaboom.
Allright here are some charts heading into next week.
Bear in mind these charts mean very little given the context of bank bailouts, a former president going to jail, west coast John Galts heading for the hills and a hot Fed meeting Wednesday afternoon.
Can Fed Governor Waller afford a house in Washington D.C. yet? BETTER KEEP JACKING THOSE RATES.
The thing is markets tend to rally when folks least expect it. When the fear is palpable.
Me I ain’t afraid of nothing. The truest scarce resource is the attention and admiration of attractive and fertile humans. That is greater than any currency. Therefore I simply continue to add to my long term investments—names that rise above the chaos like Fedex and Costco and Alphabet, and work hardt to stay sexy.
The only consistent I see right now is things are getting weird. And when the going gets weird the weird turn pro as Hunter S. Thompson said.
There are thousands of ways to extract fiat american dollars from the system. The key is to convert those filthy rags into real assets like productive landt, steel and poly carbonate greenhouses, fertilizer, giant machines and so on. We never truly own land, but we can pay taxes to america and do all kinds of fun stuff on it until we die.
My clan has only been in this country for about sixty years. My elders came from southern Italy in the late 60s and moved to Detroit just in time for the riots. We’ve been colonizing this place ever since. We don’t spread religious dogma. We spread concrete and look at us? Dominating the lazy american, with our big moustaches and Gucci loafers. Think where we will be at the century mark…at least if that hell raiser RAUL keeps at it.
Okay for now.
Raul Santos, March 19th 2023
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Nice.
But my take on JPow is a little different. Somehow, probably blackmail, JPow added $1T to the Fed balance sheet in three months in 2020. He sees that as the colossal mistake it was and is ever embarrassed about it. QT is his only hope he thinks … but now he’s f’d that up with the recent save-the-rich injections. What to think …