I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,958 Blog Posts

Stretched rally attempts holiday pivot away from record high // here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Thursday in July down a quick -200 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 2am New York when sellers stepped in and began campaigning price lower. Said campaign continued down through Wednesday low around 3:20am and then down to a new weekly low around 5am. Then the campaign continued lower, working down through the gap left behind on 07/02. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly worse than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering around 14,600, below the prior three days’ ranges. Pro gap down.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 11am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up to record highs and after a brief open two-way auction outside range sellers stepped in and drove lower, filling the overnight gap and working to an early range extension down. Responsive buyers were found ahead of the Tuesday midpoint and after rallying back to the daily mid we spent the rest of the session chopping along it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to attempt to reclaim the Tuesday low 14,625. Sellers reject the move setting up a push down through overnight low 14,544. Look for buyers just below at 14,529 and for two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower. Sellers take out 14,529 early on and sustain trade below it, setting up a push down through 14,500. Look for buyers down at 14,450 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers aggressive off the open, reclaim Tuesday low 14,625 setting up a quick run to 14,700. Buyers then continue higher, closing the overnight gap at 14,803 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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