GoPro needs to find a way to convince Facebook to buy them. That appears to be their strategy with these immersive 360 degree videos they are exclusively sharing with Facebook—court the king with some jester work.
In the meantime their stock is making new all-time lows again today. This has become commonplace for the strap-on camera maker. Their shares trade like they do not even deserve a 20 handle.
If you own this stock you basically are gambling on a buyout. In theory their 360 degree cameras are a compliment to Oculus Rift. Imagine setting a place for the spherical six-camera ring at Thanksgiving dinner. Then you can pipe in relatives from anywhere via their virtual headset. As much as I try and paint this as a cool innovation—my vision just is not clear—it sounds lame and only useful for porn.
Regardless, I own this stock as part of the GARP portfolio, and I draw a thick black X on the calendar every day as I count down to the January reshuffle. Stupid gadget stock is killing my performance.
UPDATE: As of November 10th, you can buy a Samsung Oculus Rift face mask for $99 bucks: https://www.oculus.com/en-us/blog/samsung-gear-vr-now-available-for-pre-orders-at-99/
Opening trade featured aggressive sellers followed by a real slow grind down. This action seems constructive, albeit only somewhat, after the spine twisting volatility seen over the last two weeks. Still, ATRs are blown out across the board and will continue to be until an extended period of compressed volatility. Said compression may already be underway. Or we will continue thrashing about wide swaths of price range. Either way, now is not the time to be aggressive with your bias.
I am watching Facebook. This stock is consolidating nicely today. The company is Best in Breed social media, and one of the few unbroken momentum charts out there. What I am looking for is a nice rally this afternoon from the intra-day compression. If said rally is sold into [“Rick Rolled” as the kids say] sort of like Netflix last Thursday, then I know we are still deep in the muck and subject to fake moves.
If Facebook breaks down from consolidation, sucks in the short sellers, then squeezes higher, I will still consider us deep in the woods–only Facebook will maintain its AKC Best in Show certification.
Third scenario, one for the dreamers, that would give me some confidence in the bull case, is seeing Facebook break this stupid intraday wedge to the upside then sustain higher prices. This would be an old school breakout WITH continuation, something practically extinct in modern momentum trading. A unicorn for the technical analysts.
Scenario 4 breakdown that sticks. 50 basis point rate hike imminent. Hide your wife, hide your SHAK shares.
Tomorrow is a big day for the social media industry. Tomorrow we get to see how the market reacts to our first Twitter earnings announcement. Twitter will be joined by special guests YELP! Together the pair makes up a big piece of the social media space.
We have absolutely no way of knowing how the market will react to this news. We do know that up unto this point TWTR has behaved almost exactly the opposite of FB during the first three months of public trade.
Facebook pretty much bottomed after their first call. Will Twitter pretty much top?
It deserves a consideration. On the eve of what promises to be a special day for the market, I have decided to raise some cash and buy popcorn rations. I want to be a casual observer of the action, not a red eyed madman trading the fallout. I want to instead casually observe the action and pick a spot to pounce and eat.
Social media is the ultimate disrupter. Solid state lighting and eCigs and reefer and big, but social media is HUGE. Thus we must continue to find ways to profit from it.
I still hold my $40 cost basis shares in Twitter, and these $57.50 February calls in Facebook. I sold out of the YELP calls for a handsome gain.
With these actions my book is now 30% cash. Cash rich, if you will, and resisting my junky urges to get another fix.
Facebook is up big after hours since reporting earnings. We are getting sympathy moves in GRPN, TWTR, ANGI, and YELP. I have a big heaping pile of exposure to all of these names, as well as many others, in a book of risk I can only describe as an autonomous, morphing blob hell bent on consuming all internet traders into its belly.
I continued my buying campaign today, chugging down calls in AMBA and common in CUDA like a raver six molly deep. I have consumed a disgusting amount of caffeine over the last 48 hours, toiling over market charts and building my next empire, something much bigger than anything you see on these interwebs. I smell like a Monster and old ladies are scoffing at me while I walk around in deep-V t-shirts in the arctic north. I do this because it reminds me I am still a living entity and not a zombie robot.
The market has pressed the boot deep into my stomach, yet it cannot make me regurgitate the libations boiling in my gut. I have no interest in ending the party. If I must, I will BE the party.
If my prophecies prove correct, educated guesses built on the knowledge and labor of elder generations, then I stand to make a great sum of money in February. I stand to make a great deal of money and it all starts with tomorrow’s sit. I will sit here, sucking down chili dogs and guzzling flaggarts of ale while the little bitches get their quick fix and take profits. Hell, I may even take out the lever and buy some MOAR.
IMPORTANT SIDE NOTE: LinkedIn is for old men with the poopy trousers to rub one another off. That being said, I have tuned up my profile as part of my continued quest to infiltrate and dominate the business community.
I have already divulged too deeply into my plans. Now I must go spoil my body with iron work designed to create perfect symmetry and posture. Hide your wives and tell you kids about a brave man who roams the internet, in a loin cloth, trading these stocks.
Tue Jan 28, 2014 4:48pm ESTComments Off on The Social Experiment Continues
I have been trading these social media stocks, the fire, names like FB, TWTR, Z, YELP, TRLA, ANGI, and GRPN since I started blogging here back in the cussing days. I would cuss and trade these stocks, like an internet villain of sorts, for my profit and your entertainment.
I was trying to get people excited about my little blog, over here.
I bought weekly calls in YELP and TWTR this afternoon, which prompted distinguished 12631 trader @ckelly44 to question what I was seeing, and also to explain a bit more about the trade. First, what I was seeing is this:
Second, we have Facebook earnings out tomorrow, and I have no idea what they are going to report. However, many social media stocks are in alignment into the earnings. Therefore, I expect a very binary response from the names once Facebook reports. I had a hard time choosing between TWTR and YELP, therefore I picked both—like a good American.
Here’s the YELP:
While we’re looking at charts, here’s FB:
This same look can be seen in Zillow too. ANGI is trading a bit radical, but nice too. Here’s the kicker, I have exposure to all of the above names like some kind of crack head. Should the names bounce, I will have exposure to said names, all of them, until Friday.
Here’s the exposure catalogue:
Z – Feb $95 calls and common stock
GRPN – Feb $12 calls
FB – Feb $57.50 calls
TRLA – Feb $40 calls
TWTR – weekly $65 calls and common
YELP – $80 weekly $80 calls
ANGI – Feb $17.50 calls
Via the above pot of positions, I have a ton of exposure to social media. More exposure then I have ever had in my life, as a matter of fact. The crazy part is, only one of those call positions needs to cooperate and I will profit. Options, when bought with halfway decent timing and proper sizing, offer a much more modest risk profile then I previously understood. Should they all lose after a big FB upset, my book will sink about 3.3% from here. That is losing ALL of the premium. I know, bananas.
I have a short term expectation for movement higher, you see?
MOVING ON…I had some AAPL call exposure left that scalped me today, yet I am still up 1.6% on the day. Leading the way was LEDS. The stock went #BEASTMODE into the bell on heavy volume. Someone wants some LED exposure. I still hold 25% of my risk in the LED industry. I have not sold anything yet. Today it became clear they are making another attempt to take my shares from me. They will fail, again.
I am most bullish on the LED industry. Next is social media, and third is natural gas. It is so freakishly cold here in Michigan, colder then I can remember. Also, they are limiting the propane deliveries to the hilled billy folk, telling them to, “get with the times and hook up to a natural gas pipe.” I was going to get something exotic, like UGAZ, but I opted to follow The Fly into AREX.
I did not sell anything yet, therefore my cash is down below 10 percent. I think we still trade lower from here, but it is also my expectation that individual stocks will be allowed to behave on their own merit. This could be seen today in volatility, which was crushed.
Here’s my plan, we stuck to it today, albeit slightly weaker than expected. Let’s see what tomorrow may bring:
Stocks went bananas today, and our latest big shot short seller has been made to either run for his life or dig his heels in. Nothing says welcome to the New Year like having your lolli snatched from your pudgy hand, yes my friend? I profiled a massive seller Monday morning. The market sat, literally for hours, while the bid in NASDAQ futures was PUMMELED with aggressive sell orders. The market gave way and promptly sliced to the bottom of intermediate term balance. I screwed up a bit, selling calls in TSLA that would have launched me into the stratosphere. Instead, I only rode 90% of my book long for a much more modest ascent.
I sold some positions down today. I scaled exposure down in CREE, TSLA, and YGE. I closed C outright ahead of earnings which I later regretted but perhaps tomorrow will exude as genius timing, right? Honestly, I think they rip post earnings and I wish I had a runner still. I sold OWW finally too. This was a December seasonality statistic trade that morphed into a swing trade before finally morphing into a waste of time. I scratched it as I have no patience for stocks exuding insolence to a broad market on the move. That is, unless they are sitting out a broad correction.
Today the strength in LITB caused it to swell to my largest portfolio holding. LITB has taken the proper gaunt stance to propel itself deep into the anus of short sellers. Something like this:
Later in the day, I scaled 1/3 of my MLNX long and parlayed it into MCP. These are trades RaginCajun and I are navigating with our distinct SHANK and BANK strategy. Here we are celebrating:
Lastly, I opened up some February $60 calls in FSLR. TAN worries me, the solar ETF, but aside from that little detail, I love this FSLR chart. Plus, if I win I get to talk smack about the old men at Goldman Satchel purse. Making money comes first, but roasting Old Wall comes in at a close second. I know, armature. I don’t care. Most of you guys are way too serious.
I have 6% cash, the market is fueled by degenerate stocks, and I am up 6% YTD. I should just close my book and call it a year, but instead I will press on, hopefully amusing my readers in the process.
I have a bunch of selfies of myself doing birkram yoga in LULUs that I will slowly release as my LULU trade starts to work.
The Twitter IPO was officially a success. People are taking to Twitter to congratulate @NYSEEuronext on their handling of the public offering and the investing community couldn’t be happier. There was one little hiccup however, anyone who bought shares at the actual opening price is either unchanged or underwater in their position.
And the market trended lower all day.
Determining whether the broad market weakness was a result of the TWTR IPO or whether the TWTR IPO was flat intraday because of the broad market weakness occupied my mind entirely too much today. What came first, the chicken or the egg?
One thing is for certain, it did not piss everyone off…yet.
I bought some shares today, a modest ¼ size position or 2.5% of my entire book. Twitter is my crack rock. Facebook is for nosy relatives unlike Twitter which is the greatest mechanism for taking the collective pulse of any situation anywhere in the world instantly. It’s fun, always. Are you a lonesome loser some nights? Don’t fret, pal, fire up your tailor made feeds and join the discussion. Jeff Macke would love reading that I bought TWTR today with long term intentions. I know this because I read Macke’s quip on Twitter! As I write, no less than 300 birds are swarming outside my window. No doubt a sign from the stock gods that this will be a major win for my purse. I intend to build into a 10% position, quarterly, or as I see fit.
Now allow me to address the 2.8% bloodshed I took today on the rest of my damn book. The LED industry was completely pulverized today alongside its relatives the solar stocks. The only thing confusing me is the fantastic earnings report out of OESX. They are growing a modern clip, retrofitting companies across the nation with energy-saving light emitting diodes. I always had a sweet spot for this company. Why I don’t own them, I couldn’t tell you. The entire announcement was solid and only strengthens my outlook on the pipeline for LED business. We have RVLT reporting tomorrow, should they meet their lofty forecasted growth, we could see these stocks stop going down. That’s the first step towards going up.
TSLA is getting the beat down. If this surprises you, then you have never been a hot money stud. Hot momentum cuts both ways. Keep your position sizes modest, know where your trade is wrong, and always look to scale profits. I am still waiting for the right kind of weakness to size up into.
I bought more AMBA today only moments before its final afternoon poop lower. That is the opposite of a pop higher. The company is solid. The technology is bringing high quality cameras to an excellent price point and the GoPro camera line is a massive success amongst my age group. Earnings are out of the way and if tech gets over this seasonal cold, I see AMBA as a primary beneficiary into year-end.
BALT traded like it was being pulled under my a massive squid. Thank goodness for my sniper entry. I’m riding this boat until the Capitan abandons ship.
No developments of interest from the rest of my book besides nibbling pieces of flesh off me like I was a walking buffet. I can’t complain, it kind of tickles.
Finally futures trading: I took one winning long scalp at the open and then I sidelined myself once the blood bath began. I am very talented at recognizing when I am out of my element. It’s an education I obtained by donating thousands of dollars to the markets. I am green on the day. I could have been emerald green with a pink top hat had my mind been focused, but I digress.
May the bloodshed continue into the weekend so I can obtain better pricing in TSLA, saluti
The market kicked into high gear this morning shortly after breaking down out of the consolidation we closely observed Sunday evening.
The idea was simple, and with it, I saved myself from the nauseating task of watching news which is centrally focused on politics. Instead I could watch price and determine how to manage my portfolio accordingly.
When everything started breaking down early on I sold off all my shares in WLT, FB, AMBA, and BALT. They were hard decisions to make because I didn’t want to sell any of them, but I knew there were major implications to that consolidation snap. Also The Fly has been preparing us for a correction rather extensively. After all of the selling my portfolio was bulked up with over 40% cash.
We are closing on the lows of the day after a high volume, large range selling candle. Something tells me there will be better opportunities to buy soon and I want plenty of cash on hand.
The seller I was observing Sunday evening seemed big by how the orders were carried about—absorbing buy flow at the offer for a full day. They just won big time and today’s tape is likely to embolden them. Do not discount the bears at this junction.
At the same time keep your eyes on stocks that are trading in a microcosm. Notice how financials aren’t as beaten down as tech. That’s because they were dogs all last quarter. We are nearing the time to consider another Goldman Sachs long.
Bottom line: stay cool and get out your shopping lists, but move slowly.
Top picks: CREE and RVLT, my two largest positions
Thu Oct 3, 2013 5:03pm ESTComments Off on I Am The Lizard King
I can do anything.
We sure do cover the /ES_F often over here on the Raul blog, discussing its…implications, if you will. Building the contextual cake helps me to identify abnormalities, flinches, and hand tips by the big money. The E-mini S&P is the most liquid financial instrument in the world. It makes sense to pay attention to it.
But trading it has become a slow and painful grind. It is like going years without a dish washer even though you love to cook. You get by, but your soul dies a little every day.
I needed some change (No Obama) so I traded the /NQ. I like the NQ…peep today’s stats:
today had a large range
/NQ is thinner
smaller contract size suits my size a bit nicer
I trade lots of Nasdaq and Russell stocks so I may be concentrating my eggs
It offers more trading opportunities (at least lately)
/ES has been brain numbing, while I go ‘big pimpin’ on these wiry stocks. Speaking of which, my book was up a percent today. That is a result of stock prowess and hanging out with traders much more seasoned then me. Mainly my gains today were a result of being on the right end of a technology revolution. So while sour bastards get their kicks shorting Tesla, which is fine, I am embracing the future and finding opportunities to invest in it.
In short: CREE and RVLT what what?
I started buying ONVO too, right about at these levels. You can’t keep me out of this name. When my pickled organs give out I want robots around to print new ones. Seems like a no brainer at five fifty. I consider it an investment in myself.
I sold YGE. It felt like when I sold VIPS yesterday…too soon-ish. However, dwelling on these thoughts prohibits the mind from seeking opportunity elsewhere. I sold RBCN too, for a loss, because it sort of just fell out after mainlining hot money. I do not want to be around when the Apple WWDC crowd goes running for the doors, should they do so.
ADHD is a ticker which by design frustrates me, ripping higher like a freshman jacked up on Mountain Dew and Ripped Fuel. Ah high school…when ephedra was still legal. I have wanted a long on this one for a few weeks but my attention keeps darting away from it. Instead I want to Snapchat and play ping pong in the futures.
I do not really love the way we are setting up into the weekend. The market looks like the headless horseman. Sentiment sucks but the crowd isn’t always wrong. I have concentrated by book down to the following positions listed largest to smallest:
That jackass MJNA stock can burn up and go to zero for all I care. What a garbage stock. I am -20% on that field play. I thought about cutting O about 100 times, but I figure keep it and collect the yield. My basis is a tad below here.
Everything else I hold close to chest. As a matter of fact, I need more CREE and RVLT but I am exercising patience. Together the stocks represent almost 30% of my risk capital.
I will let Q4 play out a bit before getting more risk into those two names. In the mean time I can increase my LED exposure via VECO, RBCN, GTAT, OESX, and LYTS.