iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,043 Blog Posts

Market flat, indicators rise, here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing above the Wednesday midpoint after briefly exceeding the Wednesday high early in the Globex session. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out worse than expected and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by Powell speak at 12:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began flat-ish and after an open-two way auction buyer stepped in and drove price up through the Tuesday high. The rest of the session was spend consolidating along the day’s high, with price chopping a tight range in the upper quad of the day’s range,making a little bit higher of a high in the afternoon and closing in the upper quad.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 13,015 setting up a run to 13,082.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 12,922.50 setting up a tag of 12,900.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 12,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Gap down in range ;-) here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight. First it poked higher, then lower, but ultimately trade was confined within the Tuesday range. At 8:30am CPI data came out in-line with expectations and as we approach cash open price is hovering a bit above the Tuesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm and beige book/treasury statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down that buyers quickly resolved during an open two-way auction. Buyers would soon mark the high of the session, just a few ticks beyond the Monday mid. Then for several hours we chopped sideways before seeing sellers become initiative into New York lunch. These sellers worked price down into last Thursday’s conviction buying zone before discovering a strong responsive bid. These buyers assumed control of the tap and steadily campaigned price up through the daily mid. Then they defended the mid once late in the session before ending the day a bit above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,885.75. From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 12,935. Look for sellers up at 12,950 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally to 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 12,820 and test 12,800. If sellers overwhelm the bid at 12,800 we could sell a fast liquidation down to 12,700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Off the highs, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing in the lower half of Monday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the Monday low.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by a 10-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down in range. Sellers drove down into the opening print, taking out the Friday low and nearly tagging the naked VPOC from Thursday before catching a strong responsive bid about 15-minutes into the session. Buyers then campaigned higher, making an early range extension up before price fell back to the midpoint. Buyers defended the first test of the mid and made a new high on the day but buyers could not close the overnight gap. Instead the auction stalled and reversed before it could tag the Friday VPOC. The second check back to the midpoint saw sellers overrun it and late in the afternoon we pressed into a neutral print. Price worked a bit off the lows but still ended the day in the lower quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 12,959. Look for sellers up at 13,000 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,914.75 before continuing lower, down through overnight low 12,886.25. Look for buyers down at 12,866.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 12,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ down a quick -100 into second week, here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are off record highs heading into the second full trading week of the year after briefly poking to a new record high Sunday evening. The tech-heavy index made a new high when Globex opened for trade around 6pm New York before dropping off the high and going into a balance above last Friday’s midpoint. Then around 7:20am the overnight sellers became initiative and another down rotation formed. As we approach cash open, price is hovering below the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week kicked off with a small gap up that was faded by sellers. Sellers managed to resolve all open gaps left behind Christmas eve with three heavy hours of selling before a responsive bid stepped in, marking the low of the week. An early attempt Wednesday to recapture the lows came close on the NASDAQ but the other majors were well off their lows and we rallied into the weekend. Russell 2000 continued to be bullish divergent for a third week suggesting risk tolerance remains high.

Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up beyond Thursday range. After a brief open auction outside range sellers stepped in and spiked price lower. The early spike failed to recapture the Thursday range. Instead buyers rejected the move and price made an early range extension up. Buyers held price above the daily midpoint until just after New York lunch when a strong sell rotation pressed the market to a new low of day, ultimately closing the overnight gap before a strong responsive bid was found. The rest of the session was spent rallying, from about 2pm onward, ultimately making a new daily high and closing on high of day.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 13,082.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 13,118.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, tagging 12,928.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Hard being so so beautiful, easy being so so on the right side of history

Good afternoon and good tidings lads. That first working week of 2021 was something was it not? Yes yes and while external events seem to continually trigger babied boomers and weak chinned men who hide behind even weaker beards, the woke or whatever you want to call us are just like…of course.

Nothing amuses me more than when a person logs into a social media platform to air their grievances about the social media platform using the social media platform’s tools. These are very special people. This one especially amuses me. Some folks think I bootlegged Mike’s handle when I made mine. Now here he is, up in his ivory tower somewhere in Florida (lol) tweeting about how he left Twitter:

Going on Twitter to talk about how he doesn’t use Twitter. L. O. L.

Alright now listen, I mean nothing ill upon Mike or anyone else. Life is hardt enough as it is. There is no need for me to project cruelty across the interwebs. I am a decent feller, predisposed with a heck of a beautiful build, who happens to have bolted a model onto the side of Le Fly’s dang time machine that analyzes the behavior of the four major U.S. indices using AUCTION THEORY to create a five day forecast for the stock market. In other words, I built and index model.

That’s it.

That is why my handle on Twitter is @IndexModel (follow me bb…for fleets and tweets).

I came up through the school of thought that said it is impossible to predict the behavior of the stock market. While I hold this to be true, I learned that using data to drive the decision process takes a bit of the mental anguish out of this profession.  Then, the more I began to viscerally understand auction theory and order flow, and the natural way that behavior can move and sway the markets short term, the more I realized I could develop a short term hypothesis that was correct more times than wrong.

I could see…what the market was likely to do over the next 6-30 minutes.

Not always correct.

But correct more times than wrong.

You can drive all the way across the country seeing only a small bit of highway illuminated by the headlights. Same idea. Take it one turn, one straight away, at a time. Okay now make a broad brush stroke in the general vicinity you wish to travel. Now pick your way across the land, back tracking if you reach an impasse, following the water, and so on. This is the five day index model forecast.

If you’re not good at being wrong trading, investing…not for you. Go find some fucking cave with a decent echo chamber, on parler or 8chan or wherever the autists have reconvened, and join along in the circle jerk fantasy of being right.

Hahaha…I’m “right” just barely more than I’m wrong. It comes down to risk management and having my ego stomped, ground up, mutilated, humiliated, and ultimately disintegrated into the ethereal realm where my being simply became just another orb of light occupying a fleshy chemical compound for a blip of time, before floating back into the darkness of space.

Preserving the bindu, I then made my way back to the speculative markets of high finance and began to make my way through the great rotarian scheme as a consistently profitable speculator.

Anyhow nothing lasts. For now things are going okay and that means my job is to convert the recent inflow of fiat into real assets. Places and things I can work with my hands. Earthships and ground-to-air heat transfer systems that will stand for hundreds of years, off the grid, sustaining plant and mammal life.

That’s all. Listen I don’t want to make anyone feel bad about being on the wrong side of history. But dammit, sometimes the only way to make you fuckers see the light is to demean you a bit. For the sake of clarity. The devil knows you’ll need it if you’re to make your way through a world dominated by artificial intelligence and constant surveillance.

Google is good. Amazon is great. We surrender or privacy, as of this date. I’d much rather my life be in the hands of The United Technology Congomerate than The United States of America. Big tech, the internet, these things are more powerful than the intangible (aka collective consciousness) notion of nation states.

Lines on a piece of paper, man. If anything, this place belongs to the trees, man. They were here long before us. They’ll be here long after us—if I have anything to say about it.

We own nothing. Land. We are merely stewards of it during our brief mortal existence. Our body…could easily be caged up by a team of robots. Stocks…L.O.L.

I think they get the point.

Ciao,

Raul Santos, January 10th, 2021

And now, the 320th edition of Strategy Session. Read and enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 01/11/21 – 01/15/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.88, medium bull. Markets continue to hold the highs, perhaps trading sideways to mark time, perhaps with a slight upward drift. Keep an eye on Thursday morning. Earnings from Delta airlines and Taiwan semiconductor could put some directional movement into the overall tape heading into the weekend.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Small gap up into the week is faded by sellers. Sellers manage to resolve open gaps left behind Christmas eve with a three heavy hours of selling before a responsive bid steps in, marking the low of the week. An early attempt Wednesday to recapture the lows came close on the tech-heavy NASDAQ but the other majors were well off their lows and we rallied into the weekend. Russell 2000 continues to be bullish divergent for a third week suggesting risk tolerance remains high.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Lagging tech leaves reason for concern. Energy continues to behave independently from the overall market. Staples and Utilities lagged.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows break and show big inflows after being muted for several weeks. Last big skew happened back on December 20th: http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2020/12/20/how-to-invest-like-a-proper-degenerate/

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Earnings

The biggest improvement to Stocklabs is the quality and amount of data fed into the systems. As we head into earnings season a key feature becomes critical for navigating the week—knowing who is set to report and when.

This information can be accessed from the Market Overview page. Click the “Earnings” heading to bring up a seven day calendar. Click any date to see who is set to report earnings on that date.

As noted in the executive summary this week, keep an eye on earnings out of TSM and DAL Thursday morning. Semiconductors are the primary driver of our secular bull market and TSM is a major chip maker that could sway the entire PHLX semiconductor index.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Markets continue to hold the highs, perhaps trading sideways to mark time, perhaps with a slight upward drift. Keep an eye on Thursday morning. Earnings from Delta airlines and Taiwan semiconductor could put some directional movement into the overall tape heading into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors back to rallying, Transports faked lower than ripped

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports nearly confirmed the failed auction set-up we’ve been watching for weeks. Instead the big red candle printed Monday was immidietly met by a big reversal higher Tuesday than an massive conviction rally Wednesday. This move takes the failed auction risk off the table. Now the question becomes, “are we in a fresh leg of discovery up or a balance?” Delta airline earnings Thursday morning may offer some clarity to our question.

See below:

Semiconductors continue to discover higher prices. MU earnings Thursday afternoon defiantly

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a seventh consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Wednesday, January 6th Stocklabs flagged hybrid overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Wednesday, January 20th end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I done the best I could with what I had.” – Joe Louis

Trade simple, utilize your resources effectively

 

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Thoughts after the first week of 2021

There is nothing for me to do this morning in the NASDAQ futures, therefore I will not trade.

So far the ’20s feature an economy so robust (and nobody wants to admit it because we want more stimmi checks) that locking down has done NOTHING to stop the invisible hand. We are expanding so rapidly, in all directions.

There are not enough houses for everyone. More are being built.

There is not enough bitcoin or equity available. Their prices rise.

Anyone willing to work can find work instantly. There is this whole gig economy, thanks to our Big Tech leaders, that serves as an effective safety net for anyone who is out of conventional work or has overspent and needs to shore up their budget.

Everyone on finance twitter is obsessed with bitcoin and tesla. So many jack offs with three letter acronyms after their names find it necessary to lecture on selling telsa and bitcoin. Taking profits. Which is fine and all. But they can kindly go fuck themselves. Especially the ones who have missed this entire move. Even if they’re not jealous, coming off as pretentious is never looked back on with reverence.

Let’s say Tesla drops -40% next week. What then? These honorable cowards then retweet themselves? I’ve had folks telling me to sell Tesla since before the split. Which is fine. I’m glad I became a hardened speculator before their feeble minded trepidation could infect my mind. I know a generational opportunity and any external influence attempting to sway me will be met with a concrete wall aka my dense fucking state.

I do not seek your admiration. I never have. My stated purpose is to extract as much fiat american from the global financial complex as possible. That’s it. By doing so publicly, perhaps my efforts will empower others to take control of their financial destiny. I’d like to see financial service bros completely vanish, replaced by robots, but this is beyond my control, so I dunna really care to push on that initiative.

In my 15 or so years of being active in this community I’ve been told countless times that how I want to trade cannot be done or that what I believe to be true is wrong. When I started blogging, tweeting as an eager to learn 20 year old, I thought shoot…some veteran out there will show me the ropes and make me into a fine trader. Nope. It’s just been me against the machine the whole heckin’ time. I’ve met some decent lads. Real kind folks like The Fly and Ragin Cajun and others, and their interactions have been a blessing. Still, I had to come up with my own approach and show up every day to dial it in. There was no teacher. This is a learning environment. Not a teaching one.

In other words. We don’t know. We don’t know where Tesla will top out. If bitcoin will go to 100k. We don’t know. When the stock market will correct. We dunna kin.

The nice thing is…it doesn’t matter. Just take it one day at a time. Like a jolly alcoholic.

If you make a plan ( a plan can be as simple as five or six written rules) and then trade real money and then reflect on your results, eventually you’ll become a competent investor or trader. By the way these are two different things. Make no mistake. Investors are not traders and vice versa.

The next generational investment is already upon us. It’s psychedelics. Figure out how to gain decent exposure for now and wait for a clear Daddy Elon to emerge in the space. Then go all in invested in that Daddy Elon. Then think. And fast. And Wait.

It is not Paul Stamets. He’s not sexy enough. But he’s about the closest thing. Wait for someone sexier to emerge, hopefully a woman, and then gain as much investing exposure to them as they’ll allow for.

Either you construct some discipline around your work or it will be someone else’s job to do so. You either create work for others or have work created for you. Me, I don’t like to work but I really don’t like being told what to do. Raul is a hard one to manage. Even for Raul.

Raul Santos, January 8th 2021

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Marking time … here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the fourth trading day of 2021 up a quick +90 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price shot higher overnight, unidrectionally rotating from the start of Globex until about 9:30pm New York. The action was contained within the Wednesday range, and after the initial spike we spent the rest of the overnight session balancing within the spike. As we approach cash open, price is hovering about 30 point above the Wednesday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am. Otherwise no major economic events are scheduled until tomorrow morning’s Nonfarm payroll.

Yesterday we printed an ugly normal variation up. The day began with a gap down below the Tuesday range. There was an open auction outside range which initially broke lower, but sellers were unable to take out the Monday low. Instead a strong responsive bid stepped in and drove price higher, spiking up and testing the Tuesday low before falling back to the midpoint one last time before the big rally. The rally lasted until about 11am and then we balanced along the rally highs until about 2pm. The afternoon featured selling, with sellers recapturing the midpoint by about 2:45pm and eventually working price well below it by the close. It ultimately formed a misshaped profile that sort of resembled a double distribution but given the price action, it was more akin to a normal variation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, taking out overnight high 12,762 early on to set up a tag of 12,800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take out 12,800 early on and sustain trade above it setting up a run to 12,900.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,628.50 then continue lower down through overnight low 12,622.75. Look for buyers down at 12,559.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Blue wave :-* here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked steadily lower overnight in two big rotations that lasted until about 3:45am New York. Responsive buyers stepped in after price action worked down below the Monday low. Since then action has been choppy, chopping inside the lower quadrant of Monday’s range as we approach cash open.

On the economic calendar today we have factory orders at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down that buyers quickly resolved with an open drive up. The buying continued up through the Monday midpoint before stalling around 10:30am and falling back to the daily mid. Price chopped the mid for several hours before the buyers resassumed control around 1:45pm. Said buyers made a new daily high which was quickly met with responsive selling. A ramp into the close ensured a close near the daily high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and reclaim the Monday low 12,650.25 setting up a run to 12,700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 12,791.50 then continue higher, taking out overnight high 12,844.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap and go lower, trading down through overnight low 12,491.25 setting up a liquidation down to 12,400. Look for buyers down at 12,373 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ hangs in lower quadrant of Monday’s big down range, here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are heading into the second trading day of the year gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing below the Monday midpoint for several hours before drifting a bit lower around 8:30am New York. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Monday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up up to new all-time highs. Heavy selling pressure was seen right at opening bell, with sellers resolving the +60 overnight gap in under 10 minutes. There was a brief balance here before sellers resumed their campaign. Selling accelerated down through the open gap left behind on Christmas eve before eventually finding a strong responsive bid in the December 21st (winter solstice) range. We then spent the afternoon in a steady rotation higher, eventually ending the day still a bit below the daily mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,677.25. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 12,727.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, down through 12,600 early on setting up a run down through the Monday low 12,522.50. Look for buyers down at 12,500 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 continued liquidation. Stretch targets are 12,450 and then 12,400 and then 12,374.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +60 into first trading day of 2021, here is morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. price was balanced overnight, balancing inside of the prior two days’ ranges until about 2am New York when price began to campaign higher. As we approach cash open, price is hovering at all-time highs, right around 12,500.

On the economic calendar today we have construction spending at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was gap up Monday then the rest of the shortened week was spent marking time. Price ramped aggressively higher late Thursday afternoon into year-end. Markets were closed Friday in observation of New Year’s Day. The Russell 2000 was bearish divergent after being bullish divergent the week prior. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Thursday (markets were closed Friday) the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a slight gap up that was quickly resolved during an open two-way auction. Price held a tight range for the first few hours before sellers stepped in and drove price lower. Said sellers managed to take out the Tuesday/Wednesday lows before discovering a responsive bid. Then we marked time for a few hours, chopping along the bottom side of the daily midpoint before buyers reclaimed the mid around 2:30pm. A bit more chop just below the daily high before a strong ramp into the settlement period pressed us into a neutral print. We ended the day near the high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, tagging 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,878.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down through overnight low 12,825.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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