iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,992 Blog Posts

More up stuff, here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first full week of December with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight. First-off it ran up to a new record high print, then after about 20 minutes of being open price fell back into the Friday range. That sell rotation carried clean through to 3:45am New York, when buyers stepped in near Friday’s midpoint. Since then we’ve slowly drifted higher and as we approach cash open price is hovering near the Friday high.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Last week kicked off with some strong selling early Monday that discovered a strong responsive bid. The rest of the week is spent rallying then holding along the highs. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down and after an open two-way auction buyers stepped in. Resolved the gap and continued higher, trudging along at the highs for several hours before checking back to the midpoint around 2:45pm. Sellers couldn’t quite tag the mid before buyers defended and eventually rallied back to the daily high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through 12,541.50 early on and sustain trade above it, setting up a run up through overnight high 12,572.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 12,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12.507.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 12,474.75. Look for buyers down at 12,450 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Bull onward

I have to make this brief and then commute over to my exercise room for the zoom yoga meeting (FML). Boy do I miss going over to the hot house on the uppity side of town and packing shoulder to shoulder with all the nearly naked mamacitas in their state-of-the-art sports bras and panties.

Research is bullish going into the first full week of December. You know the drill. That means I will be actively working open gaps in range (as always). I shall press the bets if we’re dealing with a gap down in prior day’s range because of the bullish convictions of my research. We’ll be gunning for range extension up and overnight highs like a bunch of amphetamine junkies climbing a mountain.

MORE

That’s about all I have time to say. The murder mitten has taken on its grey hue, a bland blob of scenery where different days are only discernible by the long stretches of darkness between the brief periods of grey glow. This is the antithesis of a psychedelic experience. Where one features kaleidoscopic trips through the entire visual color spectrum, the other is simply fifty shades of gay grey.

In these conditions it is best to stick of coffee. Legal speed. Until about 11am. Then switch to malt liquor, nourishing the body with a couple of 40 ounce bottles of foamy soda. Then, if night comes and a fire and some good fiction don’t put you under, then a big of tequila to turn out the lights.

Enough of that. Farewell lads.

Raul Santos, December 4th 2020

And now, the Stocklabs Strategy session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 12/07/20 – 12/11/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.78, medium bull. Expect a bit of weakness Monday, with sellers claiming a minor victory early in the week. Then look for a responsive bid to step in as early as Tuesday morning and for price to steadily rally through to Friday.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Similar story to the prior week—strong selling early Monday discovers a strong responsive bid. The rest of the week is spent rallying then holding along the highs.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Energy continues trade independent the market, this week way out in front. However the key driver Tech put in a strong showing and was flanked by Healthcare and Financials. Utilities were weak. Everything else muted.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows skewed majorly bullish for a second week. Raises expectations for a continuation higher.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Fresh signal

The Stocklabs overbought signal we were working ended last Monday. Then, into the close Friday a new overbought signal fired. That means we have ten more trading session’s worth of bullish bias, clean through to the 18th.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Expect a bit of weakness Monday, with sellers claiming a minor victory early in the week. Then look for a responsive bid to step in as early as Tuesday morning and for price to steadily rally through to Friday.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors go parabolic, Transports not acting like a failed auction

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports had the look of a failed auction heading into last week after quickly reversing off the highs after making a new swing high. However, price managed to linger and even claw back some losses last week and now it is looking less and less like a failed auction. Sellers need to make a decisive move, and soon, otherwise the prevailing up trend is likely to carry prices into the open air above.

See below:

Semiconductors might be at the beginning of something big to the upside after blasting up and away from the wedge formation we’ve been monitoring for the last few weeks. Or, this could be the final throws of a rally—a euphoric blow off.

We don’t know.

Either way, as of now the index remains in discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a fourth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs HYBRID OVERBOUGHT

On Friday, December 4th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Friday December 18th, end-of-day.

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Man, when you lose your laugh you lose your footing.” – Ken Kesey

Trade simple, have fun

 

Comments »

Off to poke around in the dirt

Not even the jobs numbers could put a wiggle in the futures and when we’re up at record highs there isn’t much I can do to extract fiat using my approach. Instead I will pen this brief blog entry, interact with Stocklabs for a bit then sequester myself to the laboring fields.

When busy pruning trees or cooking or exercising or whatever, it is much more difficult to do something low value like force a trade on for the sake of keeping busy. Idle hands are soon occupied by rabid jackin’ off or taking big lugs of hooch, or trading YOLO calls. Anything for a kick in this otherwise dull pandemic existence.

Three hours is about the max amount of time I can sit, disciplined, at the turrets of Mothership, which are always greased and loaded and ready to fire seventy thousand shots at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Then my mind wanders. To hoagies. Fast women. Building water features. You know, stuff like that.

And I sense my mind is already someplace adrift. Therefore, before I do anything I’d later come to regret, like my ongoing twitter rants against the lock down, I’ll just excuse myself and wish you all adieu.

Cheers lads. Stay woke. People creepin’. Back Sunday with an in depth weekly research report.

Raul Santos, December 4th, 2020

Comments »

NASDAQ normalizes, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the high print of Wednesday trade. Jobless claims data came out better than expected at 8:30am, and as we approach cash open price is hovering at the Wednesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM services index at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down and open drive lower. The drive down probed briefly below the Tuesday low but was unable to resolve the gap left behind early Tuesday morning (December 1st). Instead responsive buyers were on the scene within the first 15 minutes of action and turned the auction around. The rest of the session was spent campaigning higher, eventually closing the overnight gap and ending on the high of the day, up inside the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,469.75. From here sellers continue lower, tagging 12,407.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers reject a move back into Wednesday high 12,472 setting up a probe beyond all-time high 12,512.25. Look for sellers around 12,550 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers probe up into open air and rally up to 12,600.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ droops down a quick -50 after making new record high, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second day of December gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the middle of Monday’s range. At 9:15am ADP employment data came out worse than expected and as we approach cash open price is hovering below the Monday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a breakaway gap. Buyers drove higher after an open two-way auction probing up near all-time high before falling back to the midpoint by mid morning. Buyers defended the mid setting up a rally that pressed higher through 2:30pm, making a new all-time high and setting the VPOC up near the highs before falling back to the midpoint late in the session. Buyers defended the mid again and we ended the day in the upper quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,464.25. From here buyers continue higher, trading up through overnight high 12,473.50. Look for sellers up at 12,497.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers probe up through all-time high 12,512.25, tagging 12,550 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press don to 12,351.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

New month new rally, NASDAQ up a quick +100, here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final month of 2020 up a quick +100 after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and extreme range. Price drove higher overnight, rallying steadily until about midnight. Then, about 50 points below record high sellers stepped in. Since then we have been in a tight flag along the highs and as we approach cash open, price is hovering up near the all-time high print.

On the economic calendar today we have lots to digest at 10am—ISM manufacturing, construction spending plus some talk out of Fed Chairman Powell. There is a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began about flat and after a choppy open two-way auction sellers stepped in and drove price lower, printing a sharp unidirectional sell-off down into last Wednesday’s range. Buyers stepped in near the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s range and began working price higher. Sellers defended the daily midpoint the first time around, but a second thrust pressed through it. The rest of the session was spent rallying, reversing the early selling and eventually pressing into a neutral print right at settlement. Closing on the high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 12,401.75 and closing the open gap at 12,411.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take out all-time high 12,436. Look for sellers up at 12,448 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,296.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 12,292.25. Look for buyers down at 12,223.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ cruises into month-end, here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final trading session of November with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was choppy overnight, first taking out last week’s high, then steadily rotating lower until taking out Friday’s low before eventually working back to the middle of Friday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering at Thursday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Chicago PMI at 9:45am, pending home sales at 10am and 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured sellers early Monday discover a strong responsive bid. The rest of the holiday week was spent rallying. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up beyond the prior day’s range and after a brief two-way auction buyers ramped price higher. The auction continued higher for a bit more than an hour, going range extension up and trading into levels unseen since September 2nd before falling back to the mid. The truncated session wrapped up around 1:15pm with price just above the  mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,272.25. Then we press up through overnight high 12,337.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go higher, working up to 12,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close overnight gap 12.272.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 12,193.50. Look for buyers down at 12,178 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

On death and speculation

Sitting here, on my velvet throne, I do my best to check my privilege.

My emotions were all over the place this morning. Been thinking about death all week. Not in a fatalistic sense. More as a way of putting a sway on the human psyche. We have a hard time letting go.

Renunciation, as the eastern mystics call it. There is a sect of Buddhism who specialize in mastering death. It’s a three step process. First you renunciate all worldly desires and attachments. All of them. Easier said than done. The female nipples, for example, exact a strong pull on salacious lads like yours truly. Boddichita is next. I feel like an ass even presenting these concepts in this setting—a blog whose sole directive is extracting fiat american dollars from the global equity complex—but let us continue . Boddichita is compassion for all living beings. Even murderers. Even viruses. Even your parents. Even total strangers you pass by once and never see again. This step is important because these mystics gain much strength from their training and if that energy is not channeled into working towards the common good, it can destroy the practitioner. Finally, non-duality. This is the dying part. There is an elaborate psychotechnology where the meditator works through all the phases of death, visualizing dying in the proverbial third eye of the mind, until the sense of me, of existence, is no more than an orb of light that is totally interconnected with everything.

Okay that was my crash course in hatha, trantra, rassayana.

Moving on.

Death. To meditate on it can seem depressing but it doesn’t have to be. It can put an urgency in your day. What would we do differently if we knew we only had a few days to live? Some people think they’d seek out some orgy but that is not the point of the exercise. The stoics liken it more to a soldier readying for deployment. Knowing they may never return. The point of taking the mind so close to death, as far as I can tell, it to de clutter the mind and find some clarity around your thoughts.

I’ve been taking a deep dive into the culture and politics that seemed to gel around San Fransisco in the mid ’60s. Reading fiction and non-fiction, watching the films, listening to the music, following the campaign trails, doing my best to understand what the magic was. How we seemed to set a high water mark for american living in that moment, and how it somehow gave birth to the internet, Big Tech and all these other institutions we almost take for granted today.

You’d be a complete dope to ignore all the LSD that was floating around…but my mind keeps wondering how many novel corona viruses were floating around the city back then. I’d guess at least six.

I am not a fucking conspiracy theory person. That is a rabbit hole that sucks in the weak minded. The folks who already feel somehow cheated by their fellow man, beast or fate. It fits their framework for why they were dealt a lousy hand.

Again, I need to check my privilege if this is to be a useful entry…

I have lived an extremely fortunate life. Born to an Italian immigrant who married a big tall American blonde, I popped out the womb in the summer, on my due date, at 6am. Born in the finest hospital in Detroit. In a private room with big windows overlooking the river. Treated to the finest Mediterranean diet, my foreign relatives insisted on bringing the family (the whole family) together every Sunday for dinners. Huge. We didn’t need church as an excuse to gather. It was a bunch of people in a foreign land doing their best to survive. At dinner I was exposed to the immigrant hustle. My street smarts grew exponentially thanks to wheeling and dealings of dear Uncle Raul, a fearless lad with swag that would make most rappers blush. Dearly compassionate Aunt Rauls taught me the traditions of southern Italy. If I didn’t kiss all my uncles and aunts Elder Raul would whip me with a poolstick.

Put big dinners aside. I was brought up in the finest private educational institutions money could buy. My friends come from the wealthiest families in the area.

Tight family. Good food. Solid education. Rich friends. Absurdly good looking.

I understand my perspective is from a position of privilege. Of course I don’t give much credit to conspiracy theories. Still, Bill Gates publishes his pandemic research in 2019 and all the sudden the whole world is taking a dry run at pandemic defense.

Fine. But fuck you if you cannot take information in an objective manner. You certainly won’t last long in the world of speculative finance. Maybe your skill set is more suited for accountancy or general labor. Heck, go be a lackey for some goddam republican, they live in a fantasy world so far from Occam’s Razor their heads bob like balloons on the ceiling.

Deaths. Viruses. Their existence before 2020. The greediness of man to think themselves immortal. Spending millions for a few more dicey hours of “life” inside an ICU. I get it. It is hard to let go. Of everything. Especially if your work isn’t done, but everything is going to be fine.

Markets, trees, societies, all here long before us. The same today. The same after we’re gone.

Rant. Over.

Raul Santos, November 29th 2020

And now, the 314th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.


Exodus Strategy Session: 11/30/20 – 12/04/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.43, medium bull. Strong Monday. A bit of continuation into Tuesday, then look for remarks from Fed Chairman Powell Tuesday morning to introduce some selling into the tape. Price is choppy through the rest of the week, chopping along as it digests several earnings reports. Then look for NFP Friday morning to provide direction into the weekend.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Sellers early Monday discover a strong responsive bid. The rest of the holiday week is spent rallying.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Energy really strong again and continuing to trade on its own planet—way out in front for a second week. Flanked by sketchy Financials. However, strength was broad and Utilities lagged.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows muted skewed heavily to the buy side of the ledger.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Pressing the whole signal

Last week we took a close look at the statistics behind the bullish hybrid overbought signal. Now in hindsight, we can see the data-driven analysis worked out well. This is not always going to be the case. Just because something has historically happened with a statistically significant probability does not mean it will happen again.

If you’ve hung around the world of speculative finance for any amount of time then you’ve certainly read or heard someone say, “past performance is not indicative of future results,” usually it is some brokerage covering their ass.

But the phrase is important, to understand, viscerally.

Anyhow the hybrid overbought signal extends through Monday, close of business. Therefore our bias remains bullish through Monday.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Strong Monday. A bit of continuation into Tuesday, then look for remarks from Fed Chairman Powell Tuesday morning to introduce some selling into the tape. Price is choppy through the rest of the week, chopping along as it digests several earnings reports. Then look for NFP Friday morning to provide direction into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors forms a wedge, potential failed auction in Transports

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports took out their old swing high in grand fashion last Tuesday only to display a bit of vulnerability a few short days later Friday. Bear in mind this index was closed Thursday in observation of Thanksgiving. The Friday candle print is therefore not carrying as much weight as we’d normally assign. However, when we look back at this chart in a few months, that nuance will not be apparent. It will just look like another price pattern where we make a new swing.

This breakout needs to be monitored closely. Bulls will want to see buyers step in soon and sustain this breakout. Otherwise we could see a swift reversal back down into that old range,

See below:

Semiconductors are working higher after the fourth major thrust of the most recent bull run dating back to May 2020. The manner in which the rally continues deserves to be monitored closely. We are in a steep ascent, the kind which occasionally mark peaks. For now discovery up continues and we remain bullish. But if this wedge breaks, the correction could be swift in the opposite direction.

We don’t know.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a third consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs HYBRID OVERBOUGHT

On Monday, November 16th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Tuesday, December 1st, end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“It’s not a bad way to live once you let go of the idea that you deserve more.” – J.J. Abrams

Trade simple, live simple

 

 

Comments »

No trading report, HAPPY THANKSGIVING

I just started my morning rituals. Checking economic events. Pre-market movement from tera cap stocks. A brief scan of Twitter. Splitting the market profiles and annotating key price levels etc etc…and I decided to pass on this session.

Too much jammed into the first few hours. Everyone’s trying to wrap up and head out so you know what? I’mma head out now.

Cheers lads. I am humbled by your interactions and the time you spend reading all the thoughts I type into this here blog. All the Fleets and Tweets and Insta stories. You guys have kept me accountable to my research in a way I may not have been able to achieve on my own.

It is very american to think you have to go at everything alone. The lone ranger, taking on insurmountable odds with a few lucky twists of fate. It is ingrained into our culture. Into our story telling. Our pop culture lore.

The truth is while I fight like hell to make a few scratches on the earth that say, “Raul had True Freedom” as a fierce independent, there is a whole team of people behind the scenes. Some working directly with me. Others doing their own hustle but doing it consistently enough that they’re almost always ready to help. Like my homie Eric at the nearby hardware store, my dear friend Dean who keeps the fluids maintained in my work van, the crazy Albanian who makes a damn fine veggie skillet, Elder Raul and all his wisdom. The list really is endless and spans across the whole country. Then there’s all the products I can cue up with a few thumb swipes at Amazon that just magically appear at the entry port of Mothership. Google. My life is in Google’s hands.

Daddy Elon and Humble Jack for making me a modest fortune this year.

There is a literal army of help that powers my independence.

You guys through, the readers and fellow speculators, you’re the most swarthy bunch of all right folks I have the honor of corresponding with.

Cheers, and Happy Thanksgiving.

May the celebration roasts retain their moisture and bring you vigor and health.

Salute.

Raul Santos, November 25th 2020

 

Comments »

Compression within compression, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the Tuesday before Thanksgiving with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, without any seller confrontation until price neared the upper quadrant of Monday’s range around 3:30am New York. Price fell off the Globex high and eventually found balance, and as we approach cash open price is hovering above the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am followed by 2- and 7-year note auctions at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a decent gap up inside last Friday’s range. Buyers engaged the tape on the open and spiked price up to the 12k century mark, which aligned nicely with the Friday naked VPOC. It was all sellers from here on. Price moved sharply lower until catching a bid around 11:15am, just a bit below last week’s low print. Buyers slowly rotated price back up to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended a first attempt through the mid, but the slow drift eventually reclaimed the mid and we ended the session right on it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,905. From here sellers continue lower, tagging 11,900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go up through overnight high 11,979.25 and stall out just above at 11,982.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers rally up to 12,036.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »