iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,121 Blog Posts

NASDAQ up a quick +90 into last week of July, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price first worked lower Sunday evening, trading down near the Friday midpoint before catching a bid around 7:30pm New York. The rest of the Globex session was spent campaigning higher, eventually taking out the Friday high around 10pm. At 8:30am durable goods orders came out stronger than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Friday’s high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 6-month and 2-year note auctions at 11:30am followed by 3-month and 5-year note auctions at 1pm.

Last week we kicked off with a slight gap up across all major indices and eventually printed trend up across the board Monday. While the S&P and Dow were able to consolidate sideways for most of the week, the NASDAQ started to fade Thursday and by Friday it had given back all of Monday’s gains and more. The Russell demonstrated divergent strength into the second half of the week, suggesting investor risk appetite is running high. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down out of range. Sellers drove lower off the open, briefly trading down below the 4th of July levels. Within the first 15 minutes of trade a sharp excess lower formed. We spent the rest of the morning trading higher, eventually flirting with the Thursday low but buyers were unable to reclaim the range. Instead sellers pressed back down to the daily midpoint. Buyers held the mid and we spent the rest of the session chopping above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, trading up through overnight high. Look for sellers up at 10,609.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers run up to 10,637.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,457.75. From here we continue lower, taking out overnight low 10,401. Look for buyers right here at 10,400 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Major Tech reports and FOMC announcement due out before a very clean Friday month end

Is there anything better than when a calendar month ends right on a Friday? There isn’t. This kind of order makes the pleasure receptors in my OCD brain light up. It is very human to organize things. For example growing plants. What kind of sorcery is this, deciding what grows where and what shape it will be an what will grow alongside it? If you google earth Mothership, you would notice the entire quarter acre plot is arranged into a spiral—swirling around two times with a fountain in the center.

This is my art.

I want to develop more land. Come winter, and believe me WINTER IS COMING, I intend to buy some distressed property and fix it right. For now I shall toil in these electronic markets, extracting as much american fiat as I possibly can from this dystopian matrix. Said funds will be used to buy land. Said land will be worked like only a southern Italian immigrant can, for forty hard years and made to yield grapes, corn, heckin’ eggplants and potatoes and tomatoes. Citrus trees grown in hot houses. This is my duty.

My wealth is in loyalty dating back more than thirty years. Folks who used to build forts and dirt ramps in the woods who have gone on to become powerful titans of industry both domestic and abroad.  Yesterday we got the gang together for the first time since the dang COVID-19 hit. We discussed the R.R.F. which where we collectively decide which publicly traded stocks represent must own investments. These companies are immortal and ubiquitous and will eventually usurp the power of sovereign states and their archaic borders. We already own several of these stocks, but next week I will up my stakes in some of these and initiate the rest to form a balanced holding of the following names:

COST, WMT, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, BABA, OKTA, BYND, TWLO, BRK.B, SNE, ADBE

The only other companies I will remain invested in are of course TSLA and TWTR. Both positions are larger than the above portfolio combined.

I initiated a COVID-19 investment last week that I intend to see through at least year-end. It is kind of absurd, but also kind of not ridiculous:

Del Taco. Heckin’ Del Taco baby. This place makes delicious tacos using Beyond Meat and you can also buy crinkle cut french fries. CRINKLE CUT. They are the crack. Their restaurants are the right format to serve folks weary of the COVID bug. There is room for so many more of their shops throughout fat america. This is a growth story that just perfectly fits our current environment. I am a huge TACO bull. This is not some pump piece either. I realize it is already up +13% since I initiated my position, and how it may seem like I am here to puff it up a bit more then sell it. That is not the case. I am not some pile of trash from Seeking Alpha who is always looking to get over on someone. I am from Detroit. I work long and hardt, and when I invest it is long term and with Midwestern patience.

My only other investments are in oil and gas, which is sort of retarted and maybe I will sell them. They are like a hedge against my ideologies. They are the opposite of everything progressive and sophisticated and environmentally forward. WES and PTR. Two cancers of the world that will eventually die. But for now I remain invested after buying them deep down in the depths of the March trough.

So there it is, my entire equity portfolio.

Now back to the NASDAQ futures. We have a clean week ahead. With July ending on a Friday very nicely. In between then and now is an FOMC meeting, a Fed chair presser, Facebook earnings, then earnings from Amazon, Alphabet and Apple. The three A’s of the future. Your benevolent tech overlords. IndexModel is neutral. No bias. That means I do not trade. There is no reason for me to trade next week. I will let the big guns shoot at each other and come back into the waters come Augusto.

Cheers and trade’em well.

Raul Santos, July 26th 2020

Exodus members, the 296th edition of Strategy Session is live. Check out our key contextual sub-indices. They are both telling a story.

 

 

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NASDAQ goes red on the week into Friday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down about -90 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower overnight around 11pm, taking out the Thursday low and trading down near the 07/14 low before catching a bid around 3:30am New York. As we approach cash open, price is about -50 points below Thursday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a slight gap up in range. After a two way auction price seemed to be settling into a tight chop along the daily midpoint which was right in the middle of Wednesday’s range. Around lunchtime selers stepped in and drove price lower, erasing all the progress made during Monday’s trend up before settling into a tight chop below Monday’s range. We ended the day with about an two hours of two-way chop.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject an attempt back into Thursday’s range 10514.50 setting up a move down through overnight low 10377.25. Look for buyers down at 10, 342 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 10,300. Look for buyers down at 10,244.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers reclaim Thursday low 10,514.50 the fill the gap up to 10545.50. Look for sellers up at 10,611 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ lingering near the highs after earnings reports from Microsoft and Tesla

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price was balanced overnight, staying about +50 points higher and marking time initially selling off a bit after the bell when investors heard earnings from Tesla and Microsoft. That selling was erased during the evening. Then around 2am price spiked higher, taking out the Wednesday high for a bit. Since about 2:45am price has been on a steady rotation lower. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out mixed. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Wednesday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down. Buyers resolved the overnight gap during an open two-way auction in raneg. Said buyers managed to tag the Tuesday VPOC before sellers stepped in and worled price range extension down, taking out the Tuesday low along the way. Just a few point below Tuesday low responsive buyers stepped in and formed an excess low. The rest of the day was spent crossing back and forth over the daily midpoint. We ended the day with some selling during the settlement period.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up through overnight high 10,938.50. This sets up a tag of 11,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 10,795.25. Buyers defend 10,778 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers sustain trade below 10,778 setting up a run down to 10,700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ has free pass to misbehave until Daddy Elon reports earnings after the bell

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was choppy overnight, first chopping higher and finding sellers who defended Tuesday’s midpoint, then lower, down through Tuesday low by a few ticks before responsive buyers rallied price back to unchanged. As we approach cash open, price is hovering slightly below the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar toady we have existing home sales at 10am followed by a 20-year bond auction at 1pm.

Also be aware, tech juggernauts Microsoft and Tesla are set to report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed normal variation down. The day began with a gap up beyond the Monday trend day range. Sellers drove down into the open, quickly resolving the overnight gap and continuing their campaign lower until about noon New York. Then, after a one hour pause for lunch buyers rotated price back up to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended the mid and sent price to a new low of the day. There was a slight ramp into closing bell but we ended the day in the lower quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 10,916.25. From here we continue higher, up to 11,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take out all-time high 11,058.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 10,781.75. Look for buyers just below at 10,777 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ bobbing above 11k, here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, extending the trend up gains acquired Monday. Price stalled just three ticks below the prior all-time high set on July 13th. As we approach cash open, price is trading up beyond 11,000.

There are no economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The session began with an open-test-drive inside last Friday’s range. After a brief test lower buyers stepped in and spent the entire session in control, driving price higher, taking us to levels unseen since July 13th. We ended the day about 80 points below all-time high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, taking out all-time high 11,058.50. Look for sellers up at 11,100 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,953. Buyers reject a move back into the Monday range high 10,964.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers reverse Monday’s trend, driving down to 10,900 early on then continuing to 10,800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ chopping into the week, up a bit, here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second to last week of July, the week after OPEX, gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was choppy overnight, first selling off until about 10pm New York. Sellers were unable to work price down below last Friday’s low before buyers stepped in and stabilized prices. Price was balanced until about 4:40am when buyers stepped in and reversed the Sunday evening selling. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Friday’s high. Like the Sunday evening sellers, this morning’s buyers have not exceeded Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week the NASDAQ started out stronger than the other major indice, but by New York lunch had topped out and printed its weekly high. After a hard sell off late Monday and into Tuesday morning, the tech-heavy index marked time and traded sideways. Meanwhile the Russell was a bit stronger, suggesting investor’s risk appetite is running high. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up near the Thursday high. During an open two-way auction buyers briefly exceeded the Thursday high by a few points before sellers began a campaign lower. The selling campaign completed within the first hour of trade and ended before sellers could close the overnight gap. After a responsive buyers (responsive relative to Friday’s open, initiative relative to Thursday’s close) sharply reversed price back up through the daily midpoint, the majority of the session was spent flagging sideways along the midpoint with buyers steadily defending the mid. Around 2:15pm price spiked higher and went range extension up. Then we flagged into the close, eventually selling off a wee bit.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, tagging 10,702.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 10,729.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,603.75. Look for buyers down at 10,600 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Everything you need to know to stay one step ahead of the markets next week

My job is to be the silent observer of all things stock market. To opine as little as possible. Yet also to serve as the old guard. To steer would-be traders an investors away from the obvious trouble makers—the bad actors that flock to Wall Street. The money hungry psychopaths who put on a suit before 11am and tell lies. The false prophets. Warning the good readers of the humble Raul blog to steer clear of danger whilst also providing and objective 5-day stock market forecast is my Sunday job. Today we are calling out two signs of froth then looking at one key piece of context that is going to tell the whole story next week.

Froth alert number one. Trevor Milton is a false prophet. He is also not cool. Like I really do my best to see the positive side of this guy. I can’t find it. I can tell you this with absolute certainty: I would never work for him.

I mean, I don’t particularly like working for anyone. But this guy? With his tough guy tone and frumpy manner of dress? I’d rather close my hand in a car door then spend five minutes helping him realize his goals.

Trevor Milton has been an unsettling sign of stock market froth over the last month. I have been issuing warnings on my Twitter profile.

It is so heckin’ hard to not be cynical when jokers like Trevor sneak a Friday afternoon secondary offering onto unsuspecting folks who were attempting to “get in on the ground floor of the next Tesla”. In July of all months. When these poor suckers who bought shares of NKLA were probably doing their best to sign off for the week and go enjoy some time with their family.

Nothing matters. Our society is full of Trevor Miltons. Money hungry psychopaths so callous and devoid of empathy that they can royally screw people over and sleep just fine. Our job is to avoid falling victim to their chicanery and to do our best to empathize with these villains, and be kind to them whilst calling out their bullshit.

Our One True Leader, dear and kind and benevolent Elon is set to report earnings Wednesday after-the-bell. Microsoft is reporting at the same time. The reaction to these true titans of Hope will tell the real story. I own shares of both and am bullish on their prospects and where they are taking us as a society.

Moving on to Dan Gilbert. Dan Gilbert, for those of you who don’t remember The Great Recession, is the guy who sold off Rock Financial right before the whole housing crisis hit. Honestly, it was one of the most brilliant business decisions in modern finance. He later went on to buy his mortgage company back for pennies on the dollar and rebuild it back into a massive empire. All while accumulating most of the buildings in downtown Detroit and becoming the defacto king of Detroit. If you were doing business in the core downtown of Detroit, you were paying homage (or more) to King Dan. He has his own private security force. He’s rigged up every street corner with cameras and sees everything. He may even see me now as I pen this blog.

It looks like Dan Gilbert is attempting to sell his organization again.

Can you say frothy? Maybe this time is different. I’d imagine the pension funds of Detroit will be buying a good chunk of the Rocket Companies IPO. Maybe this will be a way to distribute the power of one (Dan) to many (the investing public). In any event, it has me feeling uncertain.

Moving on to more objective observations. The NASDAQ Transportation index is telling a story heading into next week. This key contextual index has reclaimed its old multi-year range and price is how pushing up against Fibonacci resistance that is measured from the peak-to-trough of the most recent sell rotation. If buyers can reclaim these immediate resistance levels, there is room for lots of upside. This could lift the whole market higher:

I am dedicating an entire computer monitor to watching this index next week. The other thing we may see is sellers rejecting any more upward progress. This would set-up a retest of the lows. This too could lead the whole market. You see what I am getting at?

Ignore the froth alerts. Avoid the bad actors. Respect the king. Love your discipline. Stay quiet. Watch that which can create an objective decision. Then trade accordingly.

Cheers and trade’em well.

Raul Santos, July 19th, 2020

Exodus members, the 295th edition of Strategy Session is live. Go check it out!

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NASDAQ down a quick -100, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. price worked lower overnight, steadily campaigning lower in a methodical manner. At 8:30am jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed and retail sales data all came out. Data was mixed. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have business inventories and housing market index at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and open auction outside range. Sellers eventually stepped in and close the overnight gap, but not before buyers drove up through overnight high. The selling continued down past Tuesday’s naked volume point of control before discovering a responsive bid around lunchtime New York. The rest of the day was spent campaigning higher, with a brief pause at the midpoint before chopping along it and closing above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 10,684.50. From here we continue higher, up through ovenrigh high 10,698.25. Sellers defend 11,000 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers defend their overnight selling, putting up a wall at 10,617. Sellers press down through overnight low 10,485 setting up a move down to 10,450 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 10,400. Stretch targets to the downside are 10,300 then 10,285.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ works back up into part of Monday’s selling overnight, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight. First the market worked up through the Tuesday high then it marked time above it. As we approach cash open, price is hovering somewhere below Monday’s midpoint and above Tuesday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed normal variation up. The day began with a gap down outside of Monday’s range. Buyers drove higher off the open, rapidly filing the overnight gap before finding strong sellers who asserted enough pressure to reverse the open drive and press to lower lows on the morning. Before 10:30am however, we discovered a strong responsive bid. Said buyers stepped in just a point above the July 4th open gap. Buyers had control of the tap from then onward, steadily campaigning price up through the midpoint then eventually to range extension up. We ended the day on the high, trading back up into Monday’s range.

Really choppy and fast week so far.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 10,755. Look for sellers up at 10792.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,648.25.  Look for buyers down at 10,629.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 10,800 setting up a run to 10,900.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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