iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,957 Blog Posts

NASDAQ down a quick -350 into holiday-shortened week, here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first trading day of the week down about -350 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 2am when sellers began campaigning price lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Friday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-month T-bill auction at 10am, 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, 3-year note auction at 1pm and consumer credit at 3pm.

Last week kicked off with three days of buying across all major U.S. indices. The rally came to a conclusion Wednesday afternoon. From Thursday onward there was heavy selling pressure on the tape. While the Russell demonstrated some relative strength, all indices ended the week lower after reversing their upward trends from earlier in the week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down in range. An open-two way auction was quickly overrun by sellers who drove lower for the first hour and fifteen minutes of trade. This selling took price down to levels unseen since August 14th before discovering a bid. After a sharp excess low formed, buyers worked price back up to the daily midpoint. After battling over the mid for about two hours, buyers eventually reclaimed it and drove higher from it. Said buyers could not push the market into a neutral print. Instead stalling out at the daily high set during the open auction (to the tick). Price slightly faded back to the midpoint into the closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 11,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through 11,091 and sustaining trade below it, setting up a move to tag 11,000. Look for buyers down at the 8/11 open gap down at 10,903.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 11,551.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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All models go neutral into holiday-shortened week

Howdy internet friends, and happy Labor Day.

I’d like to take a moment to update you on the latest findings from my weekend research. I will keep this post brief given my need to labor elsewhere. Working on Labor Day is what America is all about and I have work to do. But first, let us look back on last Sunday’s headline. Isn’t it a bit unsettling how this here humble Raul blog (hRb) regularly presents a forecast that materializes? Here is the headline I put out last week Sunday:

I suppose I panicked first, as they say, because when that wave of selling came through Thursday morning I raised some cash.

Raising cash never feels good to me. I need risk exposure and do not trust the american fiat dollar. Or those wretched bitcoins for that matter. Therefore I have to find a darn good use for cash anytime I have it. I’d rather maintain a lean checking account that has funds available for the next three months then have an unsettling six figure cash balance sitting around.

Cash unnerves me. It makes my impulses flair up. I suddenly find myself waiting in line at Gucci with a bunch of dolts keyed up on social media, wanting some dumb new belt or flip flop. Then, when they don’t have the thousand dollar loafers I up and decided I wanted when I woke up, there I am calling all the stores in more established regions like Manhattan and Bal Harbour, trying to hunt down loafers. Then a whole day I could have been working is gone, and I am trying to venmo some likely scammer for a pair of furry loafers.

It’s enough to make my feet spin right off the earth and into coo coo for cocopuffs land. Then what follows? Other impulses—to find some fast women and take them up on top of an old building to drink a few liters of tequila then jump down the fire escape to see if the welds hold up.

All of this takes my eye way off the prize. Staying invested, and hungry and broke keeps me focused. It never feels good raising cash.

Nevertheless, I am 35 heckin’ years old now and I am so tired of hitting my head. So I need to find ways to carry all this useless cash without going insane.

Because I need to carry some cash into these next three months. Winter is coming and before it we have to walk through the ruthless climax of an election cycle. The extreme right is doing all they can to initiate helter skelter and the extreme left has gentrified the Black Lives Matter movement and I can’t escape to Canada like I usually do about now. I’d much rather chase the fall colors. Seeing one brilliant red alert sunrise from a good vantage point can cure a decade of suburban mind rot.

I suppose I will have to keep myself busy with the giant hole in the backyard. I will probably add another two feet to its depth to refrain from other extracurricular activities.

This upcoming week will be a challenge. The models have gone neutral which gives me nothing to lean on in terms of bias. I have no edge heading into this holiday shortened week. A week that signals the end of summer in many a brain. It signals the time is now to gather up your nuts before the hard winter settles in. Without a clear bias, I have only one way of objectively engaging the market and extracting nuts—the open gap inside the prior day’s range. That’s about the only trade I will be working this week.

As always, we’ll be taking it one day at a time. Be sure to drop by around 9am New York for my daily trading plan. I may take a few days off. If I do, I shall let you know over on my twitter handle @IndexModel.

Cheers lads, and happy labor day.

Raul Santos, September 7th, 2020

Exodus members, the only real edge we have heading into next week is the set up on the NASDAQ transportation index. Be sure to read Section IV of the report, which is live now behind the paywall, and understand what price levels to be aware of.

 

 

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NASDAQ extends losses into Friday morning, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was choppy overnight, first working to erase the Thursday afternoon ramp then continuing a bit lower. From then on it was a chop, chopping along the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range. At 8:30am Nonfarm payroll data came out stronger than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Thursday low.

There are no other important economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a trend down. The day began with a gap down near the Wednesday low but still in range. After an open two-way auction sellers began to rotate price lower, taking out the Thursday low in a choppy battle with buyers before accelerating the selling down through the open gap left behind on 08/31 (month end)., Sellers drove lower until about 11:30am when some responsive buyers were found ahead of the 08/26 gap. After an hour long battle, sellers resumed their campaign, stalling out just above the 08/26 naked vpoc. There was a slight ramp near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, tagging 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers tag 11,383 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,797.50. Look for sellers up at 11,808.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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The great bull run of 2020 finally finds some sellers, here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Volatility picked up over the last 24 hours. The overnight session was balanced, chopping up near the Wednesday high until about 5am New York when sellers stepped in and drove price lower. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out stronger than expected. As we approach cash open price is down in the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM services index at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and then 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. As noted above, volatility picked up yesterday morning. The day began with a gap up to new all-time highs. Sellers drove lower into the open, closing the entier gap and continuing down into the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range before catching a bid. Buyers worked price back up to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended the mid and pressed to a new session low, briefly trading below the Tuesday midpoint before responsive buyers formed a sharp excess low. From then on the rest of the session was an auction higher, crossing up through the mid around 12:45pm and slowly regaining the upper quadrant. After flagging for about an hour buyers made one final push into the close and managed to press the market neutral right near the end of the day and close out the session near the highs.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and tag the Wednesday VPOC at 12,291.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 12,411.50 setting up a move up through overnight high 12,438.75. Look for sellers up at 12,443.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation down to 12,107.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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The great bull run of 2020 continues, NASDAQ up a quick +120 into Wednesday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second day of September pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, making a steady ascent higher via two rotations higher. At 8:15am the ADP employment report showed job growth, with private job growth at a steady 428,000 which many commentators are downplaying as not enough gains. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near 12,420.

Also on the economic calendar today we have factory orders at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up beyond the Monday range. Sellers had a go at closing the gap during the opening swing but stalled after tagging Monday’s naked VPOC. Responsive buyers (responsive relative to Tuesday open, initiative relative to Monday close) stepped in and formed a sharp excess low then rallied price right up until 10:30am. Then we flagged in the upper quadrant for several hours, not making any range extension. Range extension up came around 1:45pm setting up another flag for about the rest of the session before we ramped into the bell and closed on the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 12,465.25 on their way to tagging 12,500.

Hypo 2 sellers work a half gap down to 12,410 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 12,313. Look for buyers down at 12,300 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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The great bull run of 2020 continues, NASDAQ up a quick +50 into Tuesday, here is plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price steadily rotated higher overnight, taking out the Monday high print around 10pm New York and continuing to probe higher until about 7am. Responsive sellers showed up around 12,250 and as we approach cash open, price is hovering around 12,000.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing index and construction spending at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up right around the Friday high. Sellers nearly closed the gap during an open two-way auction but did not entirely close it before buyers stepped in and began campaigning for higher prices. By 10:30am we were already range extension up. Sellers made a sharp move back to the daily midpoint shortly after range extension. Buyers defended the mid setting up another steady rotation higher for the rest of the session. During the closing trade sellers pressed price back down to the midpoint but the daily VPOC stayed up near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a sell move down to 12,147.50. Buyers step in here and take out overnight high 12,248.75. Look for sellers ahead of 12,300 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 12,112.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 12,300 to set up a run for 12,350.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ sets new record high overnight, here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was working higher for the first several hours of Globex, making a new record high around 8pm and continuing higher until finding sellers around 2am. Said responsive sellers stepped in ahead of 12,100, and since then we’ve fallen back into last Friday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering up near Friday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week equity markets were mostly strong. All major indices spent the majority of the last full week of August rallying, especially from Tuesday-to-Wednesday. The Russell 2000 lagged a bit and is pinned right along its composite volume point of control; flagging, coiling, building energy for the next move. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap up inside Thursday’s range. The opening auction was tight but sellers managed to close the overnight gap within the first half hour. The rest of the morning was spent churning along the midpoint before sellers stepped in after lunch and pressed us range extension down. Sellers hardly probed into the lower half of Thursday’s range before discovering a bid. We then spent the rest of the day slowly rotating higher, first up through the midpoint and eventually closing above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press away from the Friday high 12,018.25 setting up a run through overnight high 12,091.75. Look for sellers just above at 12,100 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 12,167.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,988. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 11,980 targeting the micro-composite POC at 11,964.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Still bullish, sure there are warning signs, maybe we raise a bit of cash Thursday

Not much in the way of new developments. I put my head down last week and worked. I worked so hard Thursday that by the time I was done working I was so sore and whisky drunk that I poisoned myself with a large serving of tofu pad Thai—extra spicy with extra peanuts. Reading the next day that Black Panther actor and all around solid human Chadwick Boseman died of colon cancer at age 43 downright shook me. Especially since I was writhing in gastrointestinal pain from all the flaming hot peanuts I had consumed.

Your humble pen pal Raul is 35 years old and has done anything but be kind to his gut. Well, that is not entirely true. What initially had me exploring vegetarianism four years ago was the promethease database telling me I was most likely to die of colon cancer. I figured, well shoot I’d better stop filling my body with rotting flesh. So I started by doing a vegetarian breakfast for about a year. Then I spent a few days fasting high up in the Canadian mountains,meditating and snowboarding and hiking, and experienced a deep interconnectedness with all things living and swore off flesh consumption for good. So I have done that for my gut.

I regularly keep my pipes clean with high proof alcohol and a hot sauce addiction. But who knows—tomorrow isn’t promised and the DNA I was dealt is predisposed to perish from colon cancer.

For now, while I remain in the land of the living, a very strong and beautiful man who can command his cock to harden even in arctic winds, my job is simple—to extract as many fiat american dollars as possible from the global financial ecosystem. Said fiat will then be converted into real assets like cement and greenhouses and sweat lodges, built as far north and at as high an altitude as my constitution allows. I took my eye off the prize last week, instead toiling in the woods with Elder Raul, but I can assure you I remain steadfast in my mission to be the greatest investor and trader of all time.

Models are bullish into month-end. I shall press all longs, especially the airlines, at least until Thursday.

As always, we shall take it one day at a time. Be sure to drop in around 9am New York to check out the day’s key NASDAQ levels and what the plan is for the morning trade. We can drive all the way across the country at night only seeing the road our headlights illuminate. We use that same approach to investing.

Anyone claiming to have a firm grasp of the future direction of the stock market more than about six minutes into the futures is a charlatan, a damned liar and a cheat who is likely seeking to scam you. Be sure to avoid these people and cast doubt upon them in public forum.

That’s it. Cheers to your Sunday.

Raul Santos, August 30th, 2020

Exodus members, we are loving the NASDAQ Transportation Index right now. I just published the 301st edition of Strategy Session. Go read why we love it.

 

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More higher highs, here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday up at a new record high after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, nearly tagging 11,800 before settling into balance. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Tuesday high.

On the economic calendar today we have durable goods orders at 8:30am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year FRN note auction at 11:30am and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down in range. After an open two-way auction probed a bit lower, buyers stepped in and resolved the open gap. Said buyers continued higher, going range extension up by mid-morning. A check back to the daily midpoint just after New York lunch time was defended before buyers resumed their campaign. Buyers ended the day with price at all-time highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to run the gap up up to 11,800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 11,850 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,727. Look for buyers down at 11,720.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Cruising at altitude, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight, bobbing along the top-side of Monday’s midpoint. As we approach cash open, price is hovering just a few ticks below the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence and new home sales at 10am followed by a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up to new record highs. There was a pretty wide open-two way auction that pressed a few points higher before responsive sellers stepped in. Said sellers spent the morning closing the overnight gap but struggled to reclaim the Friday range. Instead buyers pressed back to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended the mid twice before attempting another rotation lower. This rotation stalled out before a new daily low could be made and we ramped back up through the midpoint near the end of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,636. From here buyers continue higher, taking out overnight high 11,690. Look for sellers just above at 11,700 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 11,733.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 11,607.75 setting up a move down to 11,574 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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