I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,082 Blog Posts

NASDAQ Claws Back Early Monday Losses, Settles Down Ahead of Yellen Talk

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up through the Monday high briefly before reversing the gains.  Price is holding in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range as we head into the open.  At 8:30am Advance Goods Trades balance data was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, 52- and 4-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, a 5-year Note auction at 1pm, and Yellen speaking at 12:50pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down, to a new low for the month of March and took out overnight low by a few ticks before reversing and trading higher for much of the day, closing the overnight gap and essentially finishing flat.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight high 5393 setting up a move to target the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down to 5348.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5328.75 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Active and Lower: NASDAQ Begins Final Week of March with Most Active Extended Trading of 2017

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price opened gap down Sunday evening and continued lower, pressing into levels unseen since late-February, effectively erasing all of March’s gains before bidders stepped in and worked priced back into the low-end of last week’s range.

The economic calendar is light all week.  Today the U.S. Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills at 11:30am, $39b and $33b respectively.  They are also auctioning off some 2-year Notes at 1pm, $26 billion dollars worth of tier one American debt.

There is some Fed speak Evans is talking before and after lunch and Kaplan in the evening, but investors aren’t likely to pay much attention to them.  Yellen speaks Tuesday mid-day and may garner the interest of active market participants.

Last week we went lower, primarily on Tuesday.  Last Tuesday was a big trend down across the board.  While most other major indices bear flagged for the rest of the week, the Dow and S&P continued to trickle lower.  Below is the performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day.  A gap higher into the day was bought initially, pressing about halfway into the Tuesday trend down seller conviction day.  Buyers pressed range extension up, albeit briefly, before we traversed the entire daily range and worked lower, effectively closing the Friday gap before a 3:30pm ramp put us back into the middle of the Friday range.  Neutral action.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory, working up through overnight high 5360.25.  Buyers stall out here, perhaps lurching a bit higher to 5365.50 but failing to close the weekend gap.  Instead we roll over and churn along last week’s lows, around the 5350 area.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, taking out overnight low 5318 and targeting the 5300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press strongly, up through overnight high 5360.25 and up to the weekend gap at 5379.25.  They sustain trade above 5377 setting up a move to target the 5400 century mark (perhaps later this week).


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Models Updated, iBankCoin Labs is Cautiously Bullish into Month-end

Since there were free Exodus trials happening last week, and the general population was invited to explore the laboratory, it is publicly known that the system’s mother algo flagged hybrid oversold for the first time in 2017 last Wednesday.  A cursory glance at the statistics of this algorithm reveal that its prowess kicks in on the tail-end.  That means you have, all of you have the opportunity to participate in a cycle that has historically rewarded investors well.

Bear in mind, and do so with any statistical edge, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moving on, from thick beneath the cloud deck protecting Michigan, a state surrounded by fresh water reserves unmatched worldwide, mother ship has traveled deep into the Exodus machine to gather and parse its most relevant signals and update the IndexModel.  Said model remains neutral, therefore the good scientists at iBC labs fully assuage all forecasting responsibility to the Exodus algorithms, which point higher.

There are some contextual concerns heading into the final week of the final month of the first quarter under our new authoritarian regime.  For the past month, as we sashay along all-time highs, sector rotations have favored Utilities, a space anything but intended for the risk tolerant:

$XLU is the ticker symbol for Utilities, in case you are new to sector ETFs.  The only other index managing to stay positive over the same duration was Tech.  Sector rotations are flashing caution, yellow lights.

Next, the NASDAQ transportation index printed a failed auction several weeks back and lost the low end of its recent range.  This may settle down for a week or two, but unless bulls can negate the failed auction, it remains a risk point going forward:

On that same note, and occurring in a more subtle but disturbing manner, NASDAQ futures also printed a failed auction.  This one happened Tuesday morning, just before the trend day down.  This failed auction exceeded a swing high (all-time high) made during extended trading hours.  Typically, a swing made during extended trading hours is not to be trusted.  It is likely to be re-tested during regular trading hours.

When it was tested last Tuesday, the auction went silent.  No bidders.  It had failed.  Until buyers negate the failed auction on the NASDAQ, it remains a risk point:

So while Exodus is nudging us to remain bullish through April 12, damn near to tax day, it is to be done with full awareness that some sketchy stuff is happening in the markets.  Keep an eye on your risk and be ready to stop out if proven wrong.

It is with all these factors in mind that the good folks at iBankCoin laboratories issue our bullish outlook for the upcoming week.  Distinguished members of Exodus, it is with humility and honor that the 124th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session was produced.  It is live now, go check it out!

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Turkish Hackers Hold 300M iCloud Accounts as Ransom; Demand Bitcoin from Apple

A group of hackers known as the ‘Turkish Crime Family’ are attempting to run an extortion scheme against Apple.  The group is demanding either $75,000 in crypto-currency (Bitcoin or Ethereum) or $100,000 worth of iTunes gift cards, according to Motherboard, the Vice Media online magazine.

If Apple does not reach into their deep pockets and pay up, the Turks are promising to delete all information, including photographs, held in 300 million iCloud and Apple accounts.

The factory reset eliminates all user information stored on an iPhone and, if they can do the same to the iCloud, any information like photos backed up will vanish into the ether as well.

The hackers sent screenshots of their emails with Apple to Motherboard, and Tim Cook’s team is refusing to pay the ransom so far.

Perhaps this year, April Fools day will fall on the 7th.


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NASDAQ Calm Two Days After Market Rout

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up through the Wednesday high, briefly, before settling into balanced trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have New Home Sales at 10am, a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm, and Fed’s [crazy eyes] Kashkari speaking at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening flat and pushing higher, sellers pushed down through the Tuesday low.  Just below it a strong responsive bid surfaced and we spent the rest of the day working higher, eventually closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5378.50 then find buyers just above at 5380 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5361.75 setting up a move to target 5325 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5380 setting up a pole climb to the 5400 century mark.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Active in Extended Hours, Stabilizing Ahead of Wednesday Trade

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price continued lower, trading down into the late-February range before settling into balance.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the House Price index at 9am, Existing home sales at 10am, and crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  Futures opened gap up and briefly probed above the swing high set during Globex on March 15th.  Shares then quickly reversed, rejecting the breakout and liquidating hard to the downside.  The selling continued for the entire session, eventually closing the February month-end gap down at 5332.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5315 and continue lower, down to the 5300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5339.50 and tag 5353.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 liquidation continues.  Sellers sustain trade below 5295.50 setting up another leg lower, down to 5275 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Washington Post Thinks Ukrainian Lawmakers Can Tie Trump Aide To Russian Money Laundering Scheme

A good plot requires a believable villain, a dark force sinister but likable, who must be overcome by the good guys.  For the Washington Post and 93% of journalists, the antagonist is our democratically elected President.  Anyone who sides with Him is also evil.  They’ve been digging away at Trump, at his tax returns, his affinity for taking fast women furniture shopping, for fat golfing in white khakis…but so far they struggled to sway the silent majority into seeing the evil.  They need someone more sinister.

Enter Paul Manafort

On the surface, he has the look of a sinister mastermind—one who could only be thwarted by James Bond.  Then you go over to Wikipedia and read up on his achievements and you’re like, “Oh yeah, this guy is dark.”

Manafort is best known for his lobbying efforts on behalf of Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych as well as dictators such as Ferdinand Marcos and Mobutu Sese Seko and guerrilla leader Jonas Savimbi.

Manafort is under active investigation by the CIA, NSA, FBI, ODNI and FinCEN.

Quite an arousing profile.  So when the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine announced they received documents bearing Manafort’s signature and company seal, documents showing Manafort falsifying invoices to pay himself three quarters of a million dollars, journalists at the Washington Post became fully erect.  The males were rutting throughout the newsroom, driven mad by the perfect findings.

There was no time to verify the documents.  Shoot first, hedge with well-placed words, pivot as needed.  The story went out before lunch, and the NASDAQ, which was for sale all morning, accelerated to the downside—tearing through trading levels as institutional money exited first and fast.

A Ukrainian lawmaker released new financial documents Tuesday allegedly showing that a former campaign chairman for President Trump laundered payments from the party of a disgraced ex-leader of Ukraine using offshore accounts in Belize and Kyrgyzstan.

The new documents, if legitimate, stem from business ties between the Trump aide, Paul Manafort, and the party of former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who enjoyed Moscow’s backing while he was in power. He has been in hiding in Russia…

[added emphasis on hedge words not done by Fake News outlet WaPo]

Sell the rumor sell the news.  While there are technical complications, objective events occurring in the NASDAQ auction, which serious short-term traders will attribute to Tuesday’s sell off, there are also grounds for attributing the weakness to the USA intelligence community (aka the permanent government) finally having a real chance to tie Trump to Russia.

Investors love certainty.  They are loving our very boring and predicable Federal Reserve.  They enjoy seeing Republicans have control over all three branches of the government.

They do not want to start taking Russian ties to our President seriously.  They were forced into confronting the allegations today.

The fourth estate is drinking goat blood tonight, popping corked bottled of umbillical stem cells, as they celebrate some meaty findings against the orange one and his coneys.  [They] the good guys are regaining control of the world.

A Paul Manafort money laundering narrative will stick.  Investors likely have a sense of how serious these Ukrainian documents are and decided it made sense to remove money from US markets until order is restored.  With any luck, we will all wake up Wednesday to early tweets from our President, clearing this matter up, so we can go back to making all-time highs on a daily basis.

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NASDAQ Higher Overnight; Here Are Your Tuesday Trading Levels

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight and is tracking above our current regular trading hour’s high as we head into the open.

The economic calendar is quiet again today.  The US Treasury is auctioning off 4-week T-bills at 11:30am.  Federal Reserve’s George is set to speak around noon, but investors are not likely to pay much attention to him.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The week began flat, worked higher, up through the Friday high before reversing the entire daily range and pushing neutral, right down into the zone where we spiked higher post FOMC rate hike last week, where buyers were again found, who pushed us back to the middle of the day’s range.

Heading into day my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze up through overnight high 5434.75 and trade above the current Globex high/swing high at 5440 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers into the overnight inventory closing the gap down to 5418.50 then down through overnight low 5413.50.  Look for buyers down at 5411 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5411.75 setting up a trend day and exploration of open air above.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Looks Back To Fed Reaction Overnight, Finds Buyers

NASDAQ futures are starting the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, pressing all the way down into the post FOMC rate hike rally before finding bidders and returning flat.

The economic calendar starts out extra light this week.  The US Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills at 11:30am.  The rest of the day is free.  Low-level Fed Reserve official Evans is speaking at 1:10pm, but little attention will be paid to him.

Last week the Russell rallied hard while the other indices marked time.  This rally came from the low-end of a multi-month range in the Russell, which was critical for buyer to hold if the bull case were to remain intact, intermedite term.  The performance of each major index can be seen below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down.  Price opened flat, went range extension down.  Sellers could not take out the Thursday low.  Instead buyers came in and auctioned price back up through the entire daily range, making new daily highs before the entire move was reversed by sellers, back down through the entire range, to close near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up though overnight high 5409 and tag the MCVPOC at 5414.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 5421.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5396 and trade down to 5389.50 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Markets Stay Neutral After Quad-witching, A Look Inside Exodus Strategy Session

Two weeks back, iBC labs issued a public announcement that trouble was brewing.  Much like the nor’easter that drifted by last week, dire warnings were issued only to see little devastation and chaos come from it.  However, the short bias had utility.  Intra-day trading the short bias during the week spanning 3/6 – 3/10 yielded successful results.

For the week we had two neutral days, one range extension up, and two range extension downs.   It was one of the first weeks in 2017 where sellers had any traction.

From a swing basis, the trade was wrong.

Having the post FOMC-rate hike reaction as a proxy for whether this trade was right or wrong was useful, as it provided a definitive answer to the question.  It was wrong.

Under the surface of index prices there were some heavy blows to the energy and basic materials sectors, as well as financials and healthcare.  Take a look at some of the losses endured from 3/6 – 3/10 from several industries:

All that being said, we have headed higher since the call was made, and prices have recovered handsomely across the board.  Into the upcoming week, the Exodus Strategy Session offers no clear indication of where price is headed.  There is one piece of data inside Exodus worth noting.  The algorithmic Hybrid Chg % number, found on the Historical tab, has kept us on the right side of the tape for a very long time.  It has shown, simply, that buyers have pushed harder and more often than sellers.  Until we see larger absolute numbers populating this column, iBankCoin laboratories is content sticking with the trend:

The good folks at iBankCoin labs are happy to walk you through the many features of Exodus.  I recently had the opportunity to speak with a new member who is using Exodus to supplement his gold/index futures trading process.  We looked at the specific tools inside this massive toolkit that are best suited to his needs while also discussing some of the pitfalls to futures trading.

If you would like a one-on-one demonstration of the software, send an email to [email protected] or leave a comment below.  As iBankcoin grows under the diligent leadership of Senor Tropicana, and with zeropointnow expanding our reach like never before, it becomes paramount that new members become cohesive stock market operators, so we may dominate the financial markets.  Your success means a continued broadcast of truth and greatness—honest narratives of world happenings and MOAR—all while banking industrial quantities of coin along the way.

As for next week, iBC Labs have no data rolling in from the thousands of autonomous sensors deployed throughout the financial markets.  The economic calendar is slow, and we have a full two week of March left.  Therefore, we are content to issue a neutral rating, erring on the side of the bulls, going into the fourth week of the third month under our new American authoritarian regime.

Shine on you crazy diamonds

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