iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,601 Blog Posts

NASDAQ flat into Monday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price was balanced overnight, rotating a few points beyond last week’s high before slowly moving down back near the Friday low.  As we approach cash open, we are off the low by about 10 points and flat verses last week’s close.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing at 10am followed by both 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we rallied.  We came into the week gap up and drove higher.  The rally extended through Wednesday.  Thursday markets were closed in observation of Thanksgiving.  Friday was a half day and price slowly rotated lower.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down, down near the Wednesday midpoint.  Buyers made a slight move higher, but were unable to fill the gap.  Instead sellers pressed range extension down through noon.  As the market came to a halt around 1:15pm New York, a slight ramp occurred, sending price back up to the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, closing the Wednesday gap 8453.75 and trading up through overnight high 8457.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 8400 before buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 8479.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Last month of the decade, still bullish

I am probably going to write about death a bunch this month.  For starters, today in the murder mitten the weather is a particular kind of glum that occurs when a thick grey soup settles the entire sky making the city cement unable to differentiate itself from the sky.  There are no shadows only shades of taupe where the airy pea soup is thinner or thicker.

But before we go into mortality and all the wonderful meditations around it, I want to acknowledge a few readers of this here old Raul blog. Mr. Numbersgame, I have not been ignoring your comments from the You gotta know when to hold’em post.  I intend to read them when I am in the mood to receive the thoughts and give them my full attention.  Thank you for taking the time to write them out.  Mr. Bernankenstein, several weeks you have left comments on the Exodus Strategy Session saying “thank you”  and calling me the Spanish milk.  I appreciate those comments, thank you.

Today is the first day of the final month of this decade so back to death.  As a sit here, near the peak male age of 34, and reflect on all the chances I’ve taken before now, it is a wonder I am still alive at all.  There were times when I would take a chance on something, often feats of physical absurdity, without giving much of any thought to the payoff, or reward, of taking such risk.  Climbing the outsides of ten-story buildings just to take in the view.  Careening down motor highways on a wheeled board with no brakes.  Somersaulting off cliffs into dark waters.  These days I rarely venture out, but when I do it always involves driving because metro Detroit is so grotesquely spread out in every which way. Every drive, especially heading into the madness that is the holidays, features a moment where some kook sickened with the hurrying syndrome, doing the devil knows what on their mobile device, flings their car to-and-fro.  I watch and wonder what could possibly have them some mentally twisted and bent to behave that way?  But as they say, if you see it, you be it.  So perhaps there is a glimmer of myself in these maniacs.  So much rushing, for what? We all end up the same.

It can seem pessimistic to talk about cycling from life-to-death, or it can be seen as a call to action.  To do what matters today, for all people, to ease this human condition, brief as it may be.  To use our reasoned choice and our reasoned choice alone to change the things we can and make them better.  Patient with the long term goals, urgent with short-term execution.  And being kind along the way.

That is all I can think of for now.  Hope your Thanksgiving was nice, that genocide of birds for their meat, makes you wonder who the savages are.

Models are bullish heading into the first week of the last month of the decade.  Cheers.

Raul Santos, December 1st, 2019

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Cram and commute day, a slurry of low impact economic data due out before holiday, here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the last full trading session of the month with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked higher overnight, tagging a new all-time high. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the high, above the Tuesday range.

There are several economic events today, all of low impact. Chicago purchasing manager 9:45am, PCE core and pending home sales and 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, 7-year note auction at 11:30am and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap up that was resolved during an open two-way auction.  Buyers eventually stepped in and worked the market range extension up.  The afternoon was spent rotating back to the daily midpoint before a late-session ramp returned price to the day’s high. The overnight stat was never taken out.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8430.25 on their way to 8450 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8390.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight chop from 8405.25 to 8430.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measures moves:

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Month-end, Thanksgiving, less is more

I have little by way of commentary to add to the current economic narrative on this last Sunday in November.  Which is fine, less is truly more when it comes to investing.

The lot of yous would be better off fully investing your portfolios long equities and forgetting the pass codes to your brokerage accounts.  But yet many persist, trying their hand at active management, shorting companies like Amazon and expecting the whole system to revert back to some symbolism of reality they perceive more true than the collective reality demonstrated by Big Tech valuations.

Which is fine, as long as you aren’t a dick.  If you are a dick or jerk or whatever, that is fine too—the final outcome of such behavior ought to be no surprise though.  People will drift away.  Maybe that is fine too.

Oh wow this blog entry has taken a morose turn.  Listen, we are from the school of thought here on the old Raul blog that people are in general good.  And since humanity, despite their blood lust and greed, is in general good, that means their creations will continue to grow.  Big Tech is their most impressive creation to date.

It was not long ago, not long ago at all that World Wars were a thing.  Marching by foot and horse into foreign lands and claiming them as your own.  Now the war is economic.  Which is much less violent but a war nonetheless.  Less blood lust, same greed.  To gain control of foreign lands, all of them.

The war is being won by companies like Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet, Inc.  Because they have no sworn allegiance.  They have a seat at the proverbial “table” without the messiness of being public servants of tyrants.  Their only obliged responsibility is fiduciary.  Economic warfare.  War for moneys.

And while we call the entire notion of money into question with bitcoin and barter systems, there is no denying that this Grande Illusion has served to placate some of the most restless factions of our society.  Money and drugs.

This is all fine.  The economy is strong and owning capital goods like property and stocks and bonds and classic cars is a decent way of participating in the economic expansion.

So as we near the end of the decade, I am inclined to channel my own hedonism into making good food, enjoying spirits with family and friends, and allowing my investments to work while I idle around town spreading holiday cheer.

What is your plan this holiday season?

Final note—models have all flipped neutral into this last, holiday-shortened week of November.  With no systematic reason to push bets, the plan is to scalp key levels and otherwise chill.

Raul Santos, November 24th, 2019

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China trade deal murmurs wiggle A.M. markets, NASDAQ gap up into Friday, here is plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher, taking out Thursday high around 10pm New York and sustaining trade above it until about 8:45am when chatter about a China/U.S. trade deal crossed the news feeds and caused a poke back down into Thursday range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering a few point above Thursday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have markit composite/manufacturing/services PMI at 9:45am followed by University of Michigan’s final November reading of sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap down and open drive lower.  Buyers stepped in ahead of the Wednesday low and trade was choppy before sellers made a move down through overnight low.  Sellers were again unable to trigger a move down through the Wednesday lows, instead we rallied back up through the range and went neutral by a few points, stopping shy by 2.5 points of an overnight gap fill however, before settling back to the midpoint by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to drive up and away from the Thursday high 8289 setting up a move to take out overnight high 8313.50.  Look for buyers to tag the Wednesday naked VPOC at 8325.75, then look for sellers up at 8339.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press into overnight inventory and reclaim Thursday range, setting up a gap fill down to 8274.  Then we continue lower, down through overnight low 8265.25.  Look for buyers to defend around 8250 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers are stronger, taking out Wednesday low 8231, setting up a move down to 8200 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch targets on a full-on liquidation: 8159.25 then 8188.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Thursday vibes, here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, holding Thursday range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Wednesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down / neutral day.  The day began with a gap down that buyers went to work resolving early on.  Buyers even pushed range extension up for a moment, tagging the Tuesday naked VPOC before sellers came in.  Sellers drifted price back down near the session low before a strong liquidation drive pushed price down.  This selling served to resolve last Thursday’s open gap before discovering responsive buyers who worked price back up to the midpoint by day’s end.

Double distribution neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 8308 setting up a move to tag the naked VPOC at 8324 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8339 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 8240 setting up a move to tag 8200 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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FOMC minutes in the afternoon, here is the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked lower overnight, working down through overnight low by midnight and sustaining trade below it.  As we approach cash open, price is a few points below the Tuesday low.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up to new all-time highs.  High was set during globex.  Before buyers could work up through globex high, sellers were active, driving lower on the open to close the overnight gap.  Sellers continued lower, tagging the Monday midpoint before rotating back up through the daily midpoint and chopping above it into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8338.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 8343.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers pres sup to 8358.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go down, taking out overnight low 8291.50 which sets up the gap fill down to 8265.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Back on the highs, here is the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, uni-directionally rotating up to a new all-time high.  At 8:30am Housing starts/building permits data came out mixed.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at all-time highs.

There are no other major economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down and drive lower.  The selling pushed into the Thursday gap zone but sellers were unable to fill it.  Instead responsive buyers stepped in and we spent the rest of the session auctioning higher.  We ended the day in the upper quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 8379 to tag 8381.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 8381.50 setting up a run to 8400.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8333.25.  From here they continue lower, down through overnight low 8317.25.  Look for buyers down at 8300 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Hong Kong rallies, China backs away from trade table amid impeachment hearings, here is the Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, rallying in the early AM hours alongside Asian markets, notably the HKEX which was up more than 1.2% at one point overnight.  Then around 8:30am CNBC released a statement from a Chinese government source that erased all those early AM gains, and more.  China wants to wait until the American “Who wants to be a President?” contest and impeachment hearings are finished.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above last Friday’s midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have NAHB housing market index at 10am, 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and net long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week began with a gap down, then some chop with a slight upward bias through Thursday, then a rally Friday.  The Russell lagged behind all week.  Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up to new all-time highs.  Sellers worked into the overnight inventory but were rejected before they could reclaim the week’s prior high range.  Buyers took control from there working back up to a new high, then chopping until a late session ramp to end the week on the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and return to ‘the scene of the crime (news)’ taking out overnight high 8367.  Look for sellers up at 8381.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8306.50 and tag 8300, then look for buyers down at 8289 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8265.50 (Thursday gap) then tag 8254.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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You gotta know when to hold’em

I saw some feller on the Twitter this morning tweet that he was 100% cash in his investment portfolio.  He was asking some other feller if he should feel okay about his position, because the other feller had tweeted something about how good trading is about being alone.  Okay enough about it without sharing the original tweet:

 

I am not trying to put these fellers on blast without reason.  I share these tweets because I think it is irresponsible to yourself and the people who are stakeholders in your well-being for you to ever, I repeat EVER, be 100% cash.  Cash is not king.  Wealth is owning capital goods. Stocks are liquid and really only to be sold as needed to fund purchases of even longer-term, less liquid assets like land and cement.

Land and cement and steel and wood that you can use to generate income.  A place to charge Birds near an urban center.  A greenhouse full of ornamental plants you can sell to girls in yoga pants with lots of disposable income.  A workshop where you can crank out doohickeys to sell online.  A garage to store your tractors and tools—tools that you can use to help people realize their building ambitions whilst making an honest gain.

Welcome to the gig economy.  More and more people are waking up to the fact that serving a corporation for 30-40 years while it realizes its ambition is not a fulfilling use of brief human existence.  The most natural state for a human to be in is either resting or engaged in sex.  Anything beyond these two states is unnatural and unlikely to satisfy our core needs.

But of course we need “money”.  But cash is risky.  You’re better off having some liquid cash, some tradable inventory that you produce yourself, and stores of wealth/work like solar panels or batteries or art.  You need mechanisms in place that passively produce income so people will leave you alone to rest and make love.

With that being said, my futures trading account goes to all cash every day.  Any time I have a big run up in that account, I funnel it over my long term accounts and immediately buy stocks using FAITH BASED INVESTING.  Faith based investing is the only way you will be able to tolerate the volatile nature of concentrated stock market investments.

Most americans are over-diversified.  It is why they end up making modest improvements to their wealth situation but never meaningful, life changing gains.  Which is fine if that allows them to fill their life with cheer and rest.  If you are going to put 25-40% of your investment portfolio into Tesla, you better be fully committed the way a faithful person is to their god(s).  Otherwise, uncertainty will lead to error and then guess what?  You go 100% cash at an even worse moment than some jobber going all cash with markets at record highs.  Without faith, the unfortunate outcome for most concentrated bets is the panic sell, that when looked back upon several years later on a chart looks really, well, unfortunate.

And that is all I had to say about investing and that set of tweets above.

Models are bullish.  They are registering their highest readings ever.  My play is to only work the long side of the tape, intra-day on the NASDAQ futures.  If we come into a day with a gap down inside range, you best believe I am taking a position pre-market and then continuing to accumulate into any early selling, with the goal of working the gap fill.

If we cross up through the daily mid, and there is still an overnight stat or range extension stat, I will be working that cross targeting either of those stats.

If we trade down into one of the market profile levels highlighted during my morning reports, I will be fading that move back higher.

Those are may three main moves.  I’ve made my career on those trades.  I’ve practiced those same three kicks, live, over two thousand times.  Once I have done them 10,000 times, perhaps I will be approaching some sort of real mastery.  Until then I remain a student.

Bullish until noted otherwise.

Raul Santos, November 17th 2019

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