NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price worked down through the Thursday low overnight before finding a modest bid. As we approach cash open, price is hovering right around the Thursday low.
The only economic event of note today is the Markit data dump of Manufacturing/Service/Composite PMI data at 9:45am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down and drive lower, leaving the open gap behind. After about an hour of sellers controlling the market and pressing to a new low on the week, responsive bidders stepped in and two-way trade ensued.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower. Look for sellers to press down through overnight low 5911 and tag the 5900 century mark before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 5919.50 setting up a gap fill up to 5943.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5947.50. Look for sellers just above at 5948 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5884.50 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight in balanced trade that held the Wednesday range. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.
Also on the economic agenda today we have Leading Indicators at 10am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began flat and by late-morning sellers were driving price lower. Then we slowly drifted back up as investors waited for the Fed’s 2pm rate decision. After the Fed left their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged at 100-125 basis points sellers again engaged the market—pressing us to new lows for the day. After one more methodical rotation up, then again down, a strong bid entered the market and we ramped back up to pre-fed announcement levels.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5978.25. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5982 setting up a move to tag the naked VPOC at 5992.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers press to 6006.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5963.75 and sustain trade below 5940 setting up a move to target 5919.25 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways, inside of the Tuesday range during balanced trade. At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out much lower than last week.
Also on the agenda today we have Existing Home sales at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, and the FOMC rate decision at 2pm.
Consensus among traders is that the Fed will leave their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged at 125 basis points (free money).
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. Price made a tiny thrust lower early on but held Monday range. Then we spent the rest of the day slowly grinding higher, marking time.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and work up through overnight high 5998.25. We continue higher, up to 6003.75 before two-way trade ensues ahead of the Fed decision. Use third reaction analysis post-Fed decision to dictate direction into end of day.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5987.75 and continue lower to 5980 before two-way trade ahead of decision. Third reaction post-Fed for direction into end of day.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers down to 5961.25 before two way trade ahead of Fed.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday sort of flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight in balanced trade inside of the Tuesday range. At 8:30am we had a dump of housing data that was a touch worse than expected
The only other economic event today is a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. Price worked sideways, more-or-less. Buyers could not extend the initial balance higher after briefly ticking above last Friday’s high—a miniature failed auction. Therefore we fell back down through range and and extended lower, ultimately holding inside of the Friday range.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5979 then continue lower, down to 5962.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers press up to 6037.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5945.50 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight in balanced trade, holding inside of last Friday’s range.
The economic calendar starts off light this week. We have the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.
Last week began with a major gap up across the board and we spent the rest of the week slowly trend up.
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. After a brief probe of the Thursday low a strong responsive bid stepped in. Buyers then became initiative and pressed us to new record intra-day highs before we settled into two way trade.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5994.50. Buyers step in here and we work up through overnight high 6011.75. This set up a rally to 6037.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 5990.25 and continue lower, down to 5974.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 tight chop, centered around 6000 and ranging from about 6010-to-5987.25.
Imagine looking into a machine and it showing you ten days into the future. The only catch is a 12% probability that what you are seeing is not the outcome that will actually play out.
Many people cannot capitalize, even with such powerful machinery. It is like you have the keys to a race car, but you don’t know how to drive a manual transmission.
The good scientists at iBankCoin always tell members of Exodus that if they can just consistently execute the hybrid overbought/oversold trades, then their returns will pay for the software many times over. Then, they can use the rest of the tools as they gain more understanding of them.
We had a bullish signal 9 trading sessions ago. Here is the performance since then:
In short, Exodus wins again. As for next week, we have reasons to believe that a calm drift is in order, perhaps of the upward variety. At least until Wednesday when we hear from the federal reserve. That will dictate direction into the second half of the week.
In summary, we use the best instruments we have to attempt to look into the future. You may call this foolish, and of course past performance is not indicative of future results, but we like using statistics to drive our decision process better then the other options out there (stars, moons, hearsay, etc).
Exodus members, the 148th Edition of Strategy Session is live. Go check it out!
I have not placed a single trade this week. Often times when the signals cross I will still scalp my NASDAQ levels because they are truly the best prices to trade, but I opted for a stoic test of patience.
Meanwhile I have been playing general contractor. At home I am pulling permits, coordinating several contractors, purchasing materials, and maintaining goodwill with the neighborhood. I am building a wall lads. On paper it conforms to all ordinances, but with some landscaping ingenuity it is actually a foot taller than is allowed. It is going to be a beautiful wall with gardens on the outside–what I am referring to as ‘public gardens’–a term popularized deep in the ghettos of Detroit where entire city blocks are being purchased by evil capitalists and converted into tree farms while they wait for values to rise.
Two hours north, where hardly any industrial pollution falls upon the land, I have been overseeing the construction of a massive wooden deck. It will be a place for elder Raul to escape humanity, which is his favorite pastime.
Elder Raul spent his entire life as a loyal workhorse, laboring far beyond his prime years. Six months ago it all caught up to him. Despite being a small Italian, low to the ground and designed for digging holes and laying bricks, his back went kaputz. Two discs were eroded beyond repair and slated for removal, while the next three were fused together with little baskets. They split open like a pig four weeks ago and operated upon him with tiny robot hands. He is now part man, part machine.
Since his home is of the colonial variety, I moved him into my much more logical, much more sprawling ranch. This allows me to keep a close watch of his recovery while also ensuring he maintains an apex vegetarian diet. We are supplementing in bone marrow and other cartilage soups, based on my theory that this will aid the healing of his own spinal bits.
I am conducting other experiments on him also, regarding his medicine. This week has been a challenge, but we are fortunate to live in a state where I have access to medicinal cannabis. We have nearly eliminated the use of all opiates only one month after a major surgery and replaced them with gratuitous servings of CBD, which I include in every meal and also apply topically. The cannabinoids do not seem as effective against nerve pain. As always, #developing. These efforts are based of the teaching of Dr. Jason Mitchell and his lectures on the endocannabinoid system.
There are other irons in the fire. I set up another Stocktwits MeetUp for the beginning of October. We are going to build the third installment of my systematic portfolio and perhaps also a book of dividends. We will also discuss the micro-plastics that have infiltrated over 90% of the tap water in the United States and how most everything around us is designed to kill us. And why that is okay, and how we can still enjoy ourselves in this giant booby trap of a world.
Also I have been flying through fiction novels, reading 50-60 pages daily.
Next week I plan to sit down and get back to mining NASDAQ points, 4-to-6 at at time (sometimes more). Next week the September contract will be good and dead and all my volume metrics will go back to helping me see what others cannot. Why trade when your edge is not the sharpest? I think Abe Lincoln said it best, and I will probably mangle it, but he said he would spend like two-and-a-half hours sharpening his axe if he had three hours to cut down a cherry tree. Smart guy that Lincoln was.
I would just hire someone then watch them from a distance—taking snaps of them as they chop chop away—maybe adding the occasional filter to make them look like a transvestite. Lolz
Sometimes all the machinery looks like it is going haywire. Dials are spinning every which way inside the boiler room of iBankCoin laboratory.
The bias model is signalling the short. Exodus algorithms are signaling the long. Next week is also that limbo period where the zombie September contract is still being traded alongside the now popular December contract. This screws with the delta readings and volume studies which are vital to our trading process.
With all these complications, and with the humility to accept we have no edge, the good scientists are taking a ‘hands off’ approach to next week’s trade.
Let the institutions play head games with each other. We shall reassess come next week.
Good luck to everyone being challenged by nature. Whether by the fires out west of the hurricanes in the southeast. Stay safe and live to fight another day.
Distinguished members of Exodus Market Intelligence, the 174th edition of Strategy Session is live. Be sure to check out Section IV “The Week Ahead” where we cover a simple piece of context that will likely give us directional confirmation in the coming weeks.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, working inside of the Thursday range.
The only economic event scheduled for today is Consumer Credit at 3pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap up, and once it was filled we spent the rest of the day slowly auctioning higher, working the 9/1 gap fill before settling into two-way trade.
Note: all active trading has moved to the December contract, but the price levels noted below are in reference to the September contract.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5978.50. From here we continue higher, up to 6000 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5948.50. Look for buyers ahead of 5920 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5884.25 before two way trade ensues.
Thu Sep 7, 2017 8:58am ESTComments Off on Rollforward Day: Prepare for Chicanery and Confusion
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, trading inside the Wednesday range. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.
Today is rollfoward, meaning most active traders will begin trading the December contact after opening bell. For the sake of the trading model statistics, the price levels shown in the morning trading report today and tomorrow will be in reference to the September contract. We will roll forward over the weekend. However, look for fast moves to occur. Larger institutions tend to push the market around aggressively during these curious quarterly events.
Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am. This report may be watched more closely as the USA allegedly teeters on the edge of nuclear war and three hurricanes are gunning for our southeast territories.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up that was sold into. Then, by Wednesday afternoon the selling abated and a bid worked into the market. We spent the rest of the day traversing the day’s range, eventually settling up near the daily high.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher. Look for price to work up to the open gap up at 5987.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 6000 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5932.25. Look for buyers ahead of 5900 and two way trade to ensue.