iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,501 Blog Posts

I haven’t shorted the NASDAQ yet, here’s the Monday afternoon trading plan

I was just-on-time sitting down at my trading terminal, only I forgot I had to reboot and load September contract onto my charts.

Then sellers didn’t show up and drive lower off the open, so I knew I had time to do a morning lap around town, handling a variety of municipal matters before traffic ticked up.  It also offered me a solid distraction instead of engaging the short side of the tape Monday morning after two weeks of bullish action.

However, as anyone who read last Sunday’s strategy session knows, IndexModel signaled Rose Colored Sunglasses, which is a bearish bias.  Per the rules of my trading plan, I am only allowed to trade the short side of $nq_f and at some point, ideally before the FOMC press conference, initiate a position in SQQQ, effectively making a leveraged bet against the stock market.

I was feeling a bit anxious to sit down and tease apart the market profiles going back to late-April, which was the last time we were up hear near all-time highs.  “All-time highs,” that’s also a phrase [fact] that is not so bearish.

But the system is the system is the system and by golly if it signals Rose Colored Sunglasses, then I need to find good places to start working the short side of this tape.  Splitting the profiles to find key working levels, preparing a few hypothetical scenarios, and reviewing the latest information coming out of the stock market is like taking an animal tranquilizer.  As I worked through the charts, I felt my breath starting to slow, now I am writing an afternoon plan, soon it will be time to focus back on the task at hand.

Raul Santos, June 17th, 2019

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NASDAQ future came into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume (note: volume metrics are skewed this week, as some active traders are still trading the June contract, despite the majority moving to September).  Price was balanced overnight, forming a tight distribution along last Friday’s high.  As we  approached cash open price was hovering along Friday’s high.

After a brief, two-way open auction buyers stepped in and drove price higher, trading up through last Thursday’s high.  At 10am NAHB hosing market index data came out below expectations.  Buyers worked a bit higher, taking $nq_f range extension up before finding a responsive bid near last Wednesday’s upper quadrant.

At 11:30am 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions took place.  Some selling pressure occurred around that time, but buyers became initiative up ahead of the daily midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week markets came gap up into Monday then spent the rest of the week in a volatile chop.  The Russell demonstrated divergent strength throughout the week, a signal of healthy risk tolerance.  The last week performance of every major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and after a brief two way auction buyers stepped in.  They were unable to reclaim the Thursday low.  Instead we spent the most of the session chopping along the low.  There was a late-day ramp, but it was sold back down to the midpoint before cash markets closed for the weekend.

Heading into this afternoon, my primary expectation is for buyers to make a new high of day, taking out 7577.50 to set up a move to target 7600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work price down to the daily midpoint 7548, buyers defend here and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through daily mid 7548, setting up a move to target 7500 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Sometimes the systems are dialed in just right

A few years ago I had to be honest with the information I was receiving in the form of huge losses trading stock options.  I wasn’t able to stick to my system.  I didn’t lacked the mental fortitude to wake up five days a week with 15 cannons pointed at me ready to blow of the hands, feet, and groin of my trading account.  I have nothing against option traders, but I learned that my skill set is not suited for a system that only wins 10-20% of the time.

I went back into the lab, looked at which trades I did best, and tripled-down on the process of doing those trades well.  I also went to work establishing other forms of cash flow outside of trading.  Then I carefully pressed weights up-and-down for four years, and weeded gardens, and dug lots of holes, and wheelbarrow-d sand around like an immigrant.

Anyways, last week I booked about equal the gains as I’ve had so far in all of 2019 combined, effectively doubling my profits for the year.  Basically I waited six months for the proverbial deck to stack and then aggressively executed my trades.

I superimposed the last two executive summaries from the Sunday Strategy Session onto this chart.  Each forecasted five day’s worth of price action with uncanny accuracy:

There are a handful of people who use Exodus every day to enhance their approach to investing and trading.  The rest of the subscribers are wanton degenerates, ferreting about our tool shed with no intent.  I’d like to see all these jokers leave and never come back.  They don’t have the right ingredients to be a trader.

The only difference between both types of Exodus subs and yours truly, is I am trading better than all of you, all whilst putting on a live seminar on the art of trading.

If you want an internet sewing circle to sit around all day and gossip about the latest news bit, go tweet—daddy needs Twitter’s users active.  My massive TWTR holding needs to hit all-time high or zero so I can move on with my life.

As for Exodus, I’d like to see it populated only by ruthless traders, scoundrels who would just as soon pluck my eyeballs out if given the chance.  People with no sworn allegiance, dead-set on pirating about the financial markets capturing fiat american dollars, gyarr.

That’s all I have to say about any of this except for one more thing:

June is RAUL’S MONTH.

 

-Raul Santos, June 16th 2019

Exodus members, the 239th edition of Strategy Session will be live in about two hours (around 2pm New York).  I haven’t written it yet, so I do not know which section will be most interesting.  Bonus points if you go back to the 06/10-06/14 report and revisit the talk about NASDAQ transports.  They were THE TELL to hold on during last week’s little selling bout.  Had you, for whatever reason, been sweating the mid-week selling, this contextual piece could have provided you solace.  Instead of seeking it from another person, like a mentor or Elon Musk aka DAD.

PS – “Happy Father’s Day”

 

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NASDAQ down a quick -50 into roll forward Friday, here’s the trading plan

NOTE: While most active traders have ‘rolled forward’ to trading the September contract, this report and all price levels referenced are for the June contract, which I will continue to trade until next week.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday, Flag Day, gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced most of the overnight session until about 4am New York when sellers began pressing prices lower.  We made a new weekly low overnight, poking into last Friday’s range briefly before discovering a responsive bid.  At 8:30am, advance retail sales data came out below expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the primary June reading of sentiment from the University of Michigan at 10am and business inventories at the same time.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and beyond Wedneday’s range.  An early drive higher managed to poke just beyond the Tuesday midpoint before sellers stepped in and worked us range extension down.  Said sellers were unable to reclaim the Wednesday range however, and we spent the rest of the day chopping along the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7524.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7527.75.  Look for sellers up at 7550 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 7600, triggering a rally up to 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7451.50 setting up a move to target 7415.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Week-long balance continues, here’s the Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ future are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight until about 10pm New York when sellers stepped in and spiked price lower.  The action tagged the gap left behind from last Friday nearly to the tick before forming a sharp excess low and reversing the auction higher.  By 6:30am price had traversed the entire Wednesday range and taken out the highs.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out worse-than-expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Wednesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week t-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down that buyers were unable to resolve during the open two-way auction.  Instead sellers stepped in and worked price down through the weekly low by a few points but this did not trigger a liquidation down into the weekend gap.  Instead price balanced out and marked time below the daily midpoint and into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7524.  Look for sellers up at 7550 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7550 setting up a move to target the open gap up at 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7474.  Look for buyers down at 7450 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ slight gap down, here’s the Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down below the Tuesday range before coming into balance.  At 8:30am, consumer price index data came out and below expectations, suggesting inflation is below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the Tuesday range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and probe higher, up beyond the Monday high (which was set after tagging an old naked value point of control from May 17th) which discovered strong responsive sellers.    The rest of the early morning was choppy and volatile before giving way to sellers who eventually closed the overnight gap and pressed a bit below it, but never took out the Monday low before we balanced into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7518.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7531.  Look for seller ahead of 7550 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers reject a move back into Tuesday range low 7492.75 setting up a move down through overnight low 7472.75.  Look for buyers down at 7460.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up through overnight high 7531, tag the 7600 century mark and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target the open gap at 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ coming into the week up +40, here’s the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price opened gap up Sunday night, pushing up nearly 60 points when Globex opened for trade at 6pm New York. The action was faded lower until about 9pm when we came into balance.  Then around 7am sellers began working price a bit higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering up near the highs of 05/21.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with weakness through most of Monday, across the board, except for the Russell was strong.  This major risk divergence was interesting, because the rest of the week was spent rallying hard.  We closed the week on the highs across the board.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a short squeeze, ‘letter P’ shaped profile.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher, and while the market went range extension up (normal variation up) it accomplished little more—instead it drifted sideways into the closing bell.  Perhaps most participants took off early to enjoy, weather-wise, at least in the north, what felt like the first real summer weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7484.75 and continuing higher to tag the open gap at 7511.25.  Then the magnet, naked VPOC at 7571 is tagged before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close teh gap down to 7420.75.  Look for buyers down at the 7400 century mark and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers reverse much of Friday’s short squeeze, trading down to 7311.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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China will win the trade wars but the real victory is the friends we make along the way

I love the Chinese mentality right now.  It could maybe make me sad that when I travel outside the United States, other world citizens will identify me alongside the ideologies of my President, but let’s just not talk about it.  The whole idea of nations is a flimsy social construct.  Some rules written on pieces of paper.  The only human fantasy worth associating with are the public markets.  If it weren’t for electronic futures, like if we re-enter the Cold War only this time everyone ignites their new bombs and these bombs knock electronic futures offline alongside all other computer stuff—hell I’ll take to trading alpacas and pirated diesel fuel.  I don’t care.

Put me anywhere and I will do my best to create a market in-and-around something.  “You want to buy? I have this for you today only, best price.  Oh, you meant to sell?  Let me know about how’d much you’re thinking to charge okay maybe I buy.”

China is playing long-term like thirty human generations out and we’re still trying to keep the baby boomers afloat.  My China correspondent, ROBERTO BREGANTE, informed me that this is the message being parroted by top executives from the Far East:

Chinese economy like sea, not a pond…when the storm comes the pond disappear, but when the storm leaves, the sea is calm and eternal.

Don’t bet against companies, religions, people, nations, who have proven an ability to think long-term and execute their vision.  Companies like Tesla and Google come to mind.  Religions like Scientology and Jehovah Witness.  People like Elon Musk or Genghis Khan.  No nation comes to mind.  It’s a flimsy construct.  But does any of this really matter?

No, not really.  The andromeda galaxy will collide with ours soon no matter how big any person or cognitive bias grows.

I suppose all that matters is enjoying your blip of time here on Spaceship Earth, taking a shot at intergalactic travel if you have the opportunity, and being kind.

That’s it, and remember, JUNE IS RAUL’S MONTH.

Raul Santos, June 9th, 2019

PS – still bullish

 

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NASDAQ flat heading into Thursday, here’s the trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher around 3:30am after spending much of the overnight session in balance.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims and trade balance data came out worse-than-expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper-quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and drive lower.  Sellers managed to close the overnight gap within the first hour and continue lower, nearly tagging the naked VPOC of Tuesday before discovering a responsive bid.  Buyers then worked price back up through the daily midpoint and defended it for the rest of the session.  We ramped higher near end-of-day but not enough to push neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7264.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 7294.75.  Look for sellers up at 7300 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7181 setting up a move to target 7178.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7307.25 setting up a move to target 7347.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ extends Tuesday gains overnight, here’s the Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, after being balanced until about 5am New York.  Price probed up into last Thursday’s range before finding responsive sellers.  At 8:15am ADP employment data came out well below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below last Thursday’s midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing/services data at 1oam followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up and two-way auction before buyers stepped in and drove higher.  Said buyers reversed all of Monday’s selling pressure by late morning then continued to campaign higher throughout the afternoon, eventually ending the day at high-of-day, near last Friday’s high.

Trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade us down to 7200.  Buyers step in here, ahead of the gap fill, and work us up through overnight high 7245.25.  Look for sellers up at 7256.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 7259.50 to set up a move to target the open gap at 7294.75.  Look for sellers at the 7300 century mark and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 7181.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7176.75.  Look for buyers down at 7158.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +60, here’s the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping along inside the lower quadrant of Monday’s range until about 3:30am New York, when buyers stepped in and began to campaign for higher prices.  As we approach cash open, price continues to probe higher and is currently pegged above the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell talking policy in Chicago starting at 9:55am.  Today is a good day to have a quality squawk service for monitoring that event.  Also durable/factory goods orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The week began with a gap down and drive lower which successfully closed the 3/11 open gap.  It also discovered a strong responsive bid.  Said bidders took us back to the daily midpoint and we chopped along it for several hours before another wave of selling came through.  Despite two more significant legs lower, including one which resolved the open gap left behind on 2/11, responsive buyers were still engaging the tape.  We ramped into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap down to 6995.25.  From here buyers step in and work us higher, through overnight high 7066.25 to tag 7074.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 we poke up to 7074.50 off the open, find strong sellers who work us lower, closing overnight gap 6995.25 and continuing lower through overnight low 6981.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, sustain trade above 7075 setting up a move to target 7100 then the open gap at 7135.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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