iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,741 Blog Posts

NASDAQ up a quick +100 into August, here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first official trading day of August gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price worked steadily higher overnight, first taking out the Friday high during the Globex open at 6pm Sunday, then balancing up along it until about 6:20am New York. Since then price has worked higher and as we approach cash open price is hovering above the 07/21 high. Recall that 7/21 was the day sellers defended the top of their 07/13 conviction selling day and reversed the auction lower.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing index and construction spending at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week also kicked off with a gap up. The whole week was spent bouncing along, above last Friday’s high before buyers eventually ended the week on a strong note. Through all this the Russell and Dow (which don’t contain big tech) lagged behind. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDASQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up. Sellers drove lower off the open and made short work of closing the overnight gap. Sellers then continued lower, tagging Thursday’s naked VPOC before a strong buying rotation sent price back up to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended and made a new low, but by late afternoon a powerful ramp was setting up. Buyers eventually ramped price clean up through the entire daily range and ended at a new high of day.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, probing up beyond all-time high print 11,058.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 11,137 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10903.50 then continue lower, through overnight low 10,876.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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August is hustle month

Quick administrative note: last week I published the R.R.F. portfolio but my China correspondant and fellow R.R.F. architect ROBERTO BREGANTE was apparently not satisfied with his choices. These update have to be made Monday:

COST, WMT, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, BABA, OKTA, BYND, (TWLO REMOVED), BRK.B, SNE, ADBE, (AVLR, LVGO, MTCH ADDED)

Anyhow, August is hustle month. I have been going over my notes from the last few years and apparently I have a habit of launching new ventures in August. I think it is some kind of natural trigger from hearing the crickets and cicadas. Their vibrations jolt me into some kind of urgency where I remember that winter is coming, and that if I am to get a project off the ground I’d better act soon before the call of the wild lures me back into the Canadian Rockies.

Maybe this winter I won’t be granted access to the sacred northern lands of Canada in which case I will set up base camp somewhere in the Tetons and explore the back country.

In any event now is the time to put projects in motion or they won’t be materialize and before I know it we’ll have taken another lap around the sun and I’ll have a few more greys in my beard with nothing to show for it.

I want to develop land lads. I come from a long line of builders and warriors and their heritage menaces me. I either need to fuck or fight or build otherwise I become an unruly citizen, prone to over aggression and other hedonistic impulses.

Regarding the global financal complex. Things are going well for us futurists. The coined bits had a strong showing over the weekend and all last week our True Institutions of Leadership, organizations like Alphabet and Amazon and Tesla and Apple, immortal beings that systematically erase archaic notions of national borders drawn by disgusting politicians in suit and tie, our True Institutions of Leadership closed out July strong.

When the NASDAQ wins, humble Raul wins. And all models point to a continued victory for Big Tech this first week of August.

That is all I have time for today. Models are bullish into the first week of August.

Cheers and trade’em well.

Raul Santos, August 2nd, 2020

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NASDAQ balancing near all time high into month-end, here is Friday plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price spiked upward during settlement on the winds of big tech earnings then marked time for the duration of Globex, balancing in the upper quadrant of the July 21st range (cash high day). As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the July 21st midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Chicago PMI at 9:45am followed by consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday afternoon we heard earnings from Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. Apple is +6.5% in premarket trade. Alphabet and Amazon are -1% and +5.5% respectively.

Facebook may have reported yesterday also. They are +7.5% in premarket trade.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range. After a brief open two-way auction seller stepped in and worked price down through the Wednesday low by a few points. Sellers failed to rotate lower and this set up a sharp reversal. Price was range extension up before New York lunch hour and continued to campaign higher through the break. By early afternoon price was chopping and grinding higher, up beyond the week’s high prints. Then during settlement it spiked higher and erased the majority of the 07/23 conviction sellling.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 10939 and tag 11,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers make a run for all-time-highs, taking out the high print11,058 on their way to tagging 11,100.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,793.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ down -120 into Thursday, Major earnings on deck, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down about -120 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower overnight, steadily rotating downward from about 8pm New York until about 5:30am. From then onward price has stabilized. At 8:30am U.S.A. GDP data came out worse than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering a bit below Wednesday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Major NASDAQ components Apple, Alphabet and Amazon are all set to report earnings after the bell. Their collective results are likely to sway the NASDAQ.

Facebook reported earnings Wednesday after the bell. Shares of the social media conglomerate are -1% in pre-market trade.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up and after a brief two-way auction buyers began to campaign higher. Said buyers pressed the market range extension up earl on but failed to take out Tuesday’s high. Instead we chopped along the topside of the daily midpoint until 2pm when the Fed left their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged at 0%. Third reaction was up after the announcement and price eventually spiked higher, close the open gap left behind Monday. We fell back to the midpoint once more where buyers defended. We ended the session near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 10,675. Buyers take out overnight high 10,702 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out ahead of 10,625 setting up a move down through overnight low 10,502. Buyers defend 10,500 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down to 10,425.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Fed Day: NASDAQ up 50 into Wednesday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price was balanced overnight. Sellers managed to work price about -1.75 points below Tuesday’s cash low before discovering buyers. Failed auction down around 2am. From there price steadily campaigned higher, and as we approach cash open price is hovering above Tuesday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have the Fed meeting announcement at 2pm. CME Fed Fund Futures are pricing a 100% probability of the central bank leaving their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged at 0%. At 2:30pm we’ll hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who is scheduled to give a press conference.

Major NASDAQ component Facebook, Inc is set to report earnings after the bell. The company will also be on Capitol Hill today along with Amazon and Apple dealing with politicians who want to argue the tech companies have become too powerful.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down. After an open two-way auction in range sellers probed down into the lower quadrant of Monday’s range. By 10am the auction had reversed higher and managed to go range extension up before New York lunch. Said buyers were unable however to close the overnight gap. Instead we sold off into the afternoon after failing to take out the daily high around 2pm. Sellers managed to press neutral and end the day near session low.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,539.75. From here sellers continue lower, taking out overnight low 10,512.25. Look for buyers down at 10,500 and two way trade to ensue. Then look for third reaction after the FOMC decision to dictate direction into the end of the session.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers close the gap down at 10,457.75 before two way trade ensues. Then look for third reaction after the FOMC decision to dictate direction into the end of the session.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 10,617.50setting up a move to close the gap up at 10,675.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Gap down in range ;-) here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the last Tuesday in July with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price popped higher after the bell Monday, pressing up near the upper quadrant of last Thusday’s range. Recall that last Thursday was a conviction sell day. That Globex rally lasted until about 9:15pm New York. The rest of the session was spent steadily rotating lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering about +30 points above Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am followed by 2- and 7-year note auctions at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up then an open test drive up. Buyers rejected an attempt right at opening bell by sellers to reclaim last Friday’s range. This set up a drive that lasted about 30 minutes. From there sellers stepped in, first taking price back to the midpoint, then after a bit of a battle pressing range extension down. During RE down buyers were unable to close the Friday gap. Instead buyers once again rejected a move into the Friday range. This time it kicked off a steady campaign higher, eventually pressing neutral and closing at session high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 10,675.50. From here we continue higher, tagging 10,700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 10,707.25 setting up a run up through overnight high 10,758.50. Look for sellers up at 10,795.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers drive down through overnight low 10,601 off the open, setting up a tag of 10,546 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +90 into last week of July, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price first worked lower Sunday evening, trading down near the Friday midpoint before catching a bid around 7:30pm New York. The rest of the Globex session was spent campaigning higher, eventually taking out the Friday high around 10pm. At 8:30am durable goods orders came out stronger than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Friday’s high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 6-month and 2-year note auctions at 11:30am followed by 3-month and 5-year note auctions at 1pm.

Last week we kicked off with a slight gap up across all major indices and eventually printed trend up across the board Monday. While the S&P and Dow were able to consolidate sideways for most of the week, the NASDAQ started to fade Thursday and by Friday it had given back all of Monday’s gains and more. The Russell demonstrated divergent strength into the second half of the week, suggesting investor risk appetite is running high. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down out of range. Sellers drove lower off the open, briefly trading down below the 4th of July levels. Within the first 15 minutes of trade a sharp excess lower formed. We spent the rest of the morning trading higher, eventually flirting with the Thursday low but buyers were unable to reclaim the range. Instead sellers pressed back down to the daily midpoint. Buyers held the mid and we spent the rest of the session chopping above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, trading up through overnight high. Look for sellers up at 10,609.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers run up to 10,637.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,457.75. From here we continue lower, taking out overnight low 10,401. Look for buyers right here at 10,400 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Major Tech reports and FOMC announcement due out before a very clean Friday month end

Is there anything better than when a calendar month ends right on a Friday? There isn’t. This kind of order makes the pleasure receptors in my OCD brain light up. It is very human to organize things. For example growing plants. What kind of sorcery is this, deciding what grows where and what shape it will be an what will grow alongside it? If you google earth Mothership, you would notice the entire quarter acre plot is arranged into a spiral—swirling around two times with a fountain in the center.

This is my art.

I want to develop more land. Come winter, and believe me WINTER IS COMING, I intend to buy some distressed property and fix it right. For now I shall toil in these electronic markets, extracting as much american fiat as I possibly can from this dystopian matrix. Said funds will be used to buy land. Said land will be worked like only a southern Italian immigrant can, for forty hard years and made to yield grapes, corn, heckin’ eggplants and potatoes and tomatoes. Citrus trees grown in hot houses. This is my duty.

My wealth is in loyalty dating back more than thirty years. Folks who used to build forts and dirt ramps in the woods who have gone on to become powerful titans of industry both domestic and abroad.  Yesterday we got the gang together for the first time since the dang COVID-19 hit. We discussed the R.R.F. which where we collectively decide which publicly traded stocks represent must own investments. These companies are immortal and ubiquitous and will eventually usurp the power of sovereign states and their archaic borders. We already own several of these stocks, but next week I will up my stakes in some of these and initiate the rest to form a balanced holding of the following names:

COST, WMT, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, BABA, OKTA, BYND, TWLO, BRK.B, SNE, ADBE

The only other companies I will remain invested in are of course TSLA and TWTR. Both positions are larger than the above portfolio combined.

I initiated a COVID-19 investment last week that I intend to see through at least year-end. It is kind of absurd, but also kind of not ridiculous:

Del Taco. Heckin’ Del Taco baby. This place makes delicious tacos using Beyond Meat and you can also buy crinkle cut french fries. CRINKLE CUT. They are the crack. Their restaurants are the right format to serve folks weary of the COVID bug. There is room for so many more of their shops throughout fat america. This is a growth story that just perfectly fits our current environment. I am a huge TACO bull. This is not some pump piece either. I realize it is already up +13% since I initiated my position, and how it may seem like I am here to puff it up a bit more then sell it. That is not the case. I am not some pile of trash from Seeking Alpha who is always looking to get over on someone. I am from Detroit. I work long and hardt, and when I invest it is long term and with Midwestern patience.

My only other investments are in oil and gas, which is sort of retarted and maybe I will sell them. They are like a hedge against my ideologies. They are the opposite of everything progressive and sophisticated and environmentally forward. WES and PTR. Two cancers of the world that will eventually die. But for now I remain invested after buying them deep down in the depths of the March trough.

So there it is, my entire equity portfolio.

Now back to the NASDAQ futures. We have a clean week ahead. With July ending on a Friday very nicely. In between then and now is an FOMC meeting, a Fed chair presser, Facebook earnings, then earnings from Amazon, Alphabet and Apple. The three A’s of the future. Your benevolent tech overlords. IndexModel is neutral. No bias. That means I do not trade. There is no reason for me to trade next week. I will let the big guns shoot at each other and come back into the waters come Augusto.

Cheers and trade’em well.

Raul Santos, July 26th 2020

Exodus members, the 296th edition of Strategy Session is live. Check out our key contextual sub-indices. They are both telling a story.

 

 

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NASDAQ goes red on the week into Friday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down about -90 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower overnight around 11pm, taking out the Thursday low and trading down near the 07/14 low before catching a bid around 3:30am New York. As we approach cash open, price is about -50 points below Thursday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a slight gap up in range. After a two way auction price seemed to be settling into a tight chop along the daily midpoint which was right in the middle of Wednesday’s range. Around lunchtime selers stepped in and drove price lower, erasing all the progress made during Monday’s trend up before settling into a tight chop below Monday’s range. We ended the day with about an two hours of two-way chop.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject an attempt back into Thursday’s range 10514.50 setting up a move down through overnight low 10377.25. Look for buyers down at 10, 342 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 10,300. Look for buyers down at 10,244.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers reclaim Thursday low 10,514.50 the fill the gap up to 10545.50. Look for sellers up at 10,611 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ lingering near the highs after earnings reports from Microsoft and Tesla

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price was balanced overnight, staying about +50 points higher and marking time initially selling off a bit after the bell when investors heard earnings from Tesla and Microsoft. That selling was erased during the evening. Then around 2am price spiked higher, taking out the Wednesday high for a bit. Since about 2:45am price has been on a steady rotation lower. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out mixed. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Wednesday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down. Buyers resolved the overnight gap during an open two-way auction in raneg. Said buyers managed to tag the Tuesday VPOC before sellers stepped in and worled price range extension down, taking out the Tuesday low along the way. Just a few point below Tuesday low responsive buyers stepped in and formed an excess low. The rest of the day was spent crossing back and forth over the daily midpoint. We ended the day with some selling during the settlement period.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up through overnight high 10,938.50. This sets up a tag of 11,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 10,795.25. Buyers defend 10,778 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers sustain trade below 10,778 setting up a run down to 10,700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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