It’s Going Down: The Benzinga FinTech Awards Gala

131 views

Benzinga_FinTech_2015

Industries are driven to innovate because of necessity. The finance industry is in a constant state of flux due to the immense resources competing and exponential opportunities that exist. While some would rather observe the conditions and complain about rigging, others are hacking into the system and creating really cool technology to stay competitive.

Benzing is going a step further this year and pitting financial technology companies against each other. Out of over 100 entrants, only one will be crowned the “Most Innovative FinTech Company”. I wouldn’t ignore this battle if I were you.

I’ll be heading over to New York City this upcoming month to attend the awards gala. You should too. It is shaping up to be the Oscars of trading/investing technology.

Click below to see more details about this event:

http://benzingafintechawards.com/

I AM A ROBOT OVERLORD

894 views

I like rules, and structure, because it allows me to track outcome and repeat what works.

Twice this week I talked through a trade I’ve been developing using the NAS100 TICK. It’s nothing fancy—just a 3rd sigma event that happens 5-7 times per week. If it stands up to walk-forward analysis [the back test has a positive expectancy] then I can add it to my intra day Nasdaq repertoire.

Behind the scenes I have been completely absorbed in Exodus. Without spending a ton of time, I can work a layer of fundamental analysis into my trade qualification. The algos help define the holding period and give me a ballpark target to shoot for.   These tools are fantastic for improving trade management skills.

Markets behavior is mixed and aggressive, which is reasonable given the overall nature of Q1. I will have a clearer view of our situation after I build next week’s strategy session.

Salvaging The Week

532 views

Nasdaq bulls were knocked around well this week by sellers who took advantage of the thin market profile left behind after the Fed back on 3/18. After sliding down through that region they used their momentum to overshoot the reaction zone and close the 3/13 gap and push through most of its range.

Futures were flat heading into the 8:30am GDP and Personal Consumption data. Also on the agenda today is the U of M Confidence data at 10am, Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm, and a sneaky 3:45pm Yellen speaking engagement on Monetary Policy. The initial reaction after the GDP data was selling.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to attempt a continuation of yesterday’s rebound. If they can push above yesterday’s session high 4331 I will look for an accelerated move up to the NVPOC at 4350.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push us below 4300 early on and sustain trade below it to set up a move toward overnight low 4297.25 then a continued exploration lower below Thursday’s low 4271.75. If responsive buyers are not found here, then it opens the door for a push down to 4250.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03272015

Lower Manhattan Explosion Puts Meerkat and Periscope To The Test

632 views

meerkat

A fire broke out in the East Village this afternoon and again, I am not making light this event because it’s likely some people were hurt.

Everyone wants to look at a fire. It’s like a train wreck, humans just can’t turn away. It’s wired deep into our brains to watch these events unfold.

The fire effectively pinned live-streaming apps Meerkat and Periscope against one another.  If you recall, Periscope is Twitter’s most recent acquisition. I have an important announcement to make:

Periscope, you passed, barely. Do you know what your grade is? F+

The lack of search ability inside the Periscope app was frustrating on my iPhone. I had to keep going to my Twitter app to click links which would open inside the Periscope app, then they would either suck or be over. Then finding a new link inside Periscope was impossible.  So it was back to Twitter.

Am I embellishing this first world problem?  A bit, but a fussy user interface isn’t something mankind tolerates here in the future.

Meerkat worked a bit better for me in the moment.  When I finally was on a good Meerkat feed, @Lanceulanoff said he had 336 on his Meerkat and only 36 on his Periscope. His commentary was not rubbish like the other clown feeds I was stumbling into.  Overall though, I found the UI a bit more pleasant inside Periscope.  It had a little more elegance and a little less black and yellow.

AS FOR THE MARKETS. They’re dangling on the cusp here. Hopefully is sucks a bunch of bears in and squeezes them. That would be best case scenario for ‘this guy’.

They Came After Me

487 views

It’s not paranoia if they’re out to get you. Please folks, don’t think I am making light of the plane crash that happened only hours after my SAVE purchase. It is tragic for the souls who perished and their families.   Keep them in your thoughts as they cope with this unexpected tragedy.  I survived a mountain airplane crash, it was a huge relief but an anomaly.  Crashing in the mountains carries a low probability of survival.

The manner by which SAVE traded this morning irks me.  Public disclosure of stops makes me paranoid.

Nevertheless SAVE went right to my soft zone and stalled before finding buyers.  Thus far it has made an avid recovery. If the troglodyte predator algos [intended oxymoron] thought they would snipe me out of a good idea because I was using a physical stop, may they chagrin at their failure and gasp for air as the vice grip of logos constricts their naked person.

In closing, I procured a new position this morning, another slow play. If you truly care to know just shoot me a DM on Twitter [@twosmuth]. CHGG and my Russell theory are still holding up, energy is strong [and I am not concerned with ‘the why’], and the Nasdaq has gone range extension up.

I can work in these conditions. My only concern is GoPro finally getting its act together and I am without exposure.

 

The Speed Is Back (So Soon?)

423 views

Nasdaq futures are running abnormally hot this morning with extreme range readings (beyond 2nd sigma) and abnormal volume. The market managed to 1 time frame down (price discovery) up until about 6am when buyers began defending just below the 3/13 swing low. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claim readings initially brought more selling in but have since reversed said losses.

Also on the economic calendar today is Markit Composite/Service PMI at 9:45am, Natural Gas storage stats at 10:30am, and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity at 11am. Keep in mind there are also some GPD readings out Friday before market open.

The market is currently pricing a pro gap down. Any attempt to fade this move would require significant resources. The open print will be way out of balance and is likely to encourage other time frame activity.

Taking to the charts, we can see sellers probing back into the upper-most distribution of our multi-month consolidation which precluded the latest rally. Now that we have pushed through its HVN (4285.25) it is likely we test down through the other side of it which would mean a move to about 4250.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for some whipsaw at the open before buyers make an attempt higher to work into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers to defend ahead of 4308.75 to set up a move below the overnight low 4270.

Hypo 2 is a full gap fill up to 4325.50.

Hypo 3 is a gap and go lower to continue the 1 time frame trending activity.

Hypo 4 is a push below overnight low 4270 which is met by responsive buying ahead of 4250 and we balance out on the lower end of the top distribution.

These levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03262015

 

A Strategic Purchase

634 views

I am flexing my Old Testament muscles into the close. Exodus is completely changing the way I select stocks. Usually my ideas evolve out of bigger themes I believe in. One such theme has been energy. I like energy. Everyone’s hooked on it. Take it away for a week and you’ll see what I mean.

Energy is tricky though. Entire countries are dependent upon the sale of natural energy resources. Thus the political theater, special interest, and other powers well beyond the means of your boy Raul are at play. Thus if I am to even step into this arena I need institutional grade weaponry.

I took a position in SAVE today. It’s serves as part of a bigger energy trade I am working. The position consists of XLE, OIS, AAL, and SAVE [listed largest to smallest].

Per the Weekly Strategy Session, I wanted to see energy plays strong early in the week. The thing is, I don’t entirely trust oil bulls. Here’s why:

CL_03252015

Weakness in oil has potential to stimulate the share prices of airlines. Also, if you read into the CPI data out yesterday, the airline prices are going up despite the deals in oil. Go figure.

Now I turn to Exodus. My timing has been mushy lately. I’ve also been buying stupid companies with unacceptable fundamentals. Now I can quickly scan fundamentals before execution. Have a look at a few screens on $SAVE, where business is booming and their valuation is still reasonable:

SAVE_FUNDIES

Then there is the real meat of Exodus and what makes its more powerful than anyone else’s screeners and tools, the predictive element. It is flagging oversold on the 12-month algo with nice stats behind it:

SAVE_OS

Finally, from a technical perspective, which is now my least important parameter but mainly a risk profile tool, we are on day three down so it’s likely to become a bit rocky for the bears. Also, we’re at the low end of a range that the shares have traded through. Thus, despite looking like a knife catch today, it’s a reasonable zone to take some risk.

When dealing with cavemen, you’ve got to get biblical. Godspeed mates.

Back To Vigilant Conditions

346 views

Mexico Vigilantes

This is exactly what I have been talking about. You can call it ‘luck of the Fed’ draw, but over the last 10 days we were working within the confines of a PPT oversold signal. I also generated auction data inside the Weekly Strategy Session which also made the case for higher price during the cycle.

But whenever operating outside the cycles, the market is much more erratic. It makes the case for day trading the index but puts some tension in place for multi month swing trading.  Moreover, the primary case it’s making is to drop the hammer when computer brains smarter then me say so, and spend the rest of the time sitting in the shade of a banana tree.  I have no desire to buy any stocks today.

The Russell looks the weakest today but on a relative basis the Nasdaq is leading lower on the week. What’s sketchy about the Nasdaq is we’re now down inside the slip zone from the Fed move meaning, we could slip slide right down it.

Meanwhile in stock land, my new positions are holding up well, so far, but damn, I picked this morning to meet with my tax man and wham, right back in the shit.

Nothing to it but to do it.

Side note – Exodus flagged Overbought on Twitter yesterday with a high degree of accuracy over a 2 day time frame.  For the for the short term trader, does it get any better than this!?  If you were in some weekly call options you were boss hog yesterday, but if you’re still long those bastard instruments right now you’re the castrated male bovine strapped to a wagon.

TWTR_03252015

A Sublime Auction of Unparalleled Beauty

538 views

I love how the Nasdaq is behaving up here. Hopefully showing you this action in real time has you thinking about the markets more like an auction.

This morning we envisioned 2 ways today’s profile would shape up as the day progressed. Here it is again:

NQ_MP_03242015

This morning we worked the orange profile (hypo 2 from this morning’s post) up through value and found responsive sellers on the top side of it. Per the Pelican Room (BTW nice work today Pelicanos) notes:

03242015_12361Notes

My day was essentially done at that point, but while eating a panini I took to Twitter to share the algorithmic Naz100 TICK occurrence that occurred and a way I have been trading it:

03242015_Twitter_Notes

The trade actually gave you a scale and likely a scratch at worst if you managed the long. If I was to take the trade it would only be a scalp because the market had already completed my expected upside progress (hypo 2).

When the market continued lower and especially when it took out opening swing low you could tell the seller meant business but again buyers managed to make some smooth moving counter rotations.

Their attempt from a neutral stance was valiant, but when VPOC shifted back down to 4438 when encouraged sellers to finish their unsettled business by filling that dirty gap below. Good form sellers, good form indeed.

Just a tick below this gap buyers defended though it was all rather predictable and lovely.

This is also day 11 after PPT flagged oversold—another completed cycle and bulls may now reenter the city walls to a reasonable parade, fanfare and libations.

Late last night I was granted access to The Exodus beta. Nearly the entire cloud-mountain is mine to explore before the general population arrives. It is one of the most invigorating experiences of my entire life. All I can say is get excited people.

Why Are We Talking?

411 views

snakeplissken

There’s a new president of the internet, the collective voice of the populace. Adored, respected, the Twitterati go about shaping the direction of global resources with succinct brevity. Therefore despite its heady valuation and premium pricing, it is without doubt I intend to hold equity in this company until it grows into its lanky body and sends share price much higher.

Smaller minds may start feeling ants crawling about their pants to book their gains. I have a whole new vision into stocks as of today. You see, I have been granted early access to Exodus. As a result my computing power has exponentially expanded, and my grasp of micro-drivers is becoming dangerously acute.

On the market front, as long as The [Kurt] Russell continues to comport itself like a leader, its behooves you to take a few steps up the risk ladder.

It’s Going Down: The Benzinga FinTech Awards Gala

131 views

Benzinga_FinTech_2015

Industries are driven to innovate because of necessity. The finance industry is in a constant state of flux due to the immense resources competing and exponential opportunities that exist. While some would rather observe the conditions and complain about rigging, others are hacking into the system and creating really cool technology to stay competitive.

Benzing is going a step further this year and pitting financial technology companies against each other. Out of over 100 entrants, only one will be crowned the “Most Innovative FinTech Company”. I wouldn’t ignore this battle if I were you.

I’ll be heading over to New York City this upcoming month to attend the awards gala. You should too. It is shaping up to be the Oscars of trading/investing technology.

Click below to see more details about this event:

http://benzingafintechawards.com/

I AM A ROBOT OVERLORD

894 views

I like rules, and structure, because it allows me to track outcome and repeat what works.

Twice this week I talked through a trade I’ve been developing using the NAS100 TICK. It’s nothing fancy—just a 3rd sigma event that happens 5-7 times per week. If it stands up to walk-forward analysis [the back test has a positive expectancy] then I can add it to my intra day Nasdaq repertoire.

Behind the scenes I have been completely absorbed in Exodus. Without spending a ton of time, I can work a layer of fundamental analysis into my trade qualification. The algos help define the holding period and give me a ballpark target to shoot for.   These tools are fantastic for improving trade management skills.

Markets behavior is mixed and aggressive, which is reasonable given the overall nature of Q1. I will have a clearer view of our situation after I build next week’s strategy session.

Salvaging The Week

532 views

Nasdaq bulls were knocked around well this week by sellers who took advantage of the thin market profile left behind after the Fed back on 3/18. After sliding down through that region they used their momentum to overshoot the reaction zone and close the 3/13 gap and push through most of its range.

Futures were flat heading into the 8:30am GDP and Personal Consumption data. Also on the agenda today is the U of M Confidence data at 10am, Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm, and a sneaky 3:45pm Yellen speaking engagement on Monetary Policy. The initial reaction after the GDP data was selling.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to attempt a continuation of yesterday’s rebound. If they can push above yesterday’s session high 4331 I will look for an accelerated move up to the NVPOC at 4350.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push us below 4300 early on and sustain trade below it to set up a move toward overnight low 4297.25 then a continued exploration lower below Thursday’s low 4271.75. If responsive buyers are not found here, then it opens the door for a push down to 4250.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03272015

Lower Manhattan Explosion Puts Meerkat and Periscope To The Test

632 views

meerkat

A fire broke out in the East Village this afternoon and again, I am not making light this event because it’s likely some people were hurt.

Everyone wants to look at a fire. It’s like a train wreck, humans just can’t turn away. It’s wired deep into our brains to watch these events unfold.

The fire effectively pinned live-streaming apps Meerkat and Periscope against one another.  If you recall, Periscope is Twitter’s most recent acquisition. I have an important announcement to make:

Periscope, you passed, barely. Do you know what your grade is? F+

The lack of search ability inside the Periscope app was frustrating on my iPhone. I had to keep going to my Twitter app to click links which would open inside the Periscope app, then they would either suck or be over. Then finding a new link inside Periscope was impossible.  So it was back to Twitter.

Am I embellishing this first world problem?  A bit, but a fussy user interface isn’t something mankind tolerates here in the future.

Meerkat worked a bit better for me in the moment.  When I finally was on a good Meerkat feed, @Lanceulanoff said he had 336 on his Meerkat and only 36 on his Periscope. His commentary was not rubbish like the other clown feeds I was stumbling into.  Overall though, I found the UI a bit more pleasant inside Periscope.  It had a little more elegance and a little less black and yellow.

AS FOR THE MARKETS. They’re dangling on the cusp here. Hopefully is sucks a bunch of bears in and squeezes them. That would be best case scenario for ‘this guy’.

They Came After Me

487 views

It’s not paranoia if they’re out to get you. Please folks, don’t think I am making light of the plane crash that happened only hours after my SAVE purchase. It is tragic for the souls who perished and their families.   Keep them in your thoughts as they cope with this unexpected tragedy.  I survived a mountain airplane crash, it was a huge relief but an anomaly.  Crashing in the mountains carries a low probability of survival.

The manner by which SAVE traded this morning irks me.  Public disclosure of stops makes me paranoid.

Nevertheless SAVE went right to my soft zone and stalled before finding buyers.  Thus far it has made an avid recovery. If the troglodyte predator algos [intended oxymoron] thought they would snipe me out of a good idea because I was using a physical stop, may they chagrin at their failure and gasp for air as the vice grip of logos constricts their naked person.

In closing, I procured a new position this morning, another slow play. If you truly care to know just shoot me a DM on Twitter [@twosmuth]. CHGG and my Russell theory are still holding up, energy is strong [and I am not concerned with ‘the why’], and the Nasdaq has gone range extension up.

I can work in these conditions. My only concern is GoPro finally getting its act together and I am without exposure.

 

The Speed Is Back (So Soon?)

423 views

Nasdaq futures are running abnormally hot this morning with extreme range readings (beyond 2nd sigma) and abnormal volume. The market managed to 1 time frame down (price discovery) up until about 6am when buyers began defending just below the 3/13 swing low. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claim readings initially brought more selling in but have since reversed said losses.

Also on the economic calendar today is Markit Composite/Service PMI at 9:45am, Natural Gas storage stats at 10:30am, and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity at 11am. Keep in mind there are also some GPD readings out Friday before market open.

The market is currently pricing a pro gap down. Any attempt to fade this move would require significant resources. The open print will be way out of balance and is likely to encourage other time frame activity.

Taking to the charts, we can see sellers probing back into the upper-most distribution of our multi-month consolidation which precluded the latest rally. Now that we have pushed through its HVN (4285.25) it is likely we test down through the other side of it which would mean a move to about 4250.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for some whipsaw at the open before buyers make an attempt higher to work into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers to defend ahead of 4308.75 to set up a move below the overnight low 4270.

Hypo 2 is a full gap fill up to 4325.50.

Hypo 3 is a gap and go lower to continue the 1 time frame trending activity.

Hypo 4 is a push below overnight low 4270 which is met by responsive buying ahead of 4250 and we balance out on the lower end of the top distribution.

These levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03262015

 

A Strategic Purchase

634 views

I am flexing my Old Testament muscles into the close. Exodus is completely changing the way I select stocks. Usually my ideas evolve out of bigger themes I believe in. One such theme has been energy. I like energy. Everyone’s hooked on it. Take it away for a week and you’ll see what I mean.

Energy is tricky though. Entire countries are dependent upon the sale of natural energy resources. Thus the political theater, special interest, and other powers well beyond the means of your boy Raul are at play. Thus if I am to even step into this arena I need institutional grade weaponry.

I took a position in SAVE today. It’s serves as part of a bigger energy trade I am working. The position consists of XLE, OIS, AAL, and SAVE [listed largest to smallest].

Per the Weekly Strategy Session, I wanted to see energy plays strong early in the week. The thing is, I don’t entirely trust oil bulls. Here’s why:

CL_03252015

Weakness in oil has potential to stimulate the share prices of airlines. Also, if you read into the CPI data out yesterday, the airline prices are going up despite the deals in oil. Go figure.

Now I turn to Exodus. My timing has been mushy lately. I’ve also been buying stupid companies with unacceptable fundamentals. Now I can quickly scan fundamentals before execution. Have a look at a few screens on $SAVE, where business is booming and their valuation is still reasonable:

SAVE_FUNDIES

Then there is the real meat of Exodus and what makes its more powerful than anyone else’s screeners and tools, the predictive element. It is flagging oversold on the 12-month algo with nice stats behind it:

SAVE_OS

Finally, from a technical perspective, which is now my least important parameter but mainly a risk profile tool, we are on day three down so it’s likely to become a bit rocky for the bears. Also, we’re at the low end of a range that the shares have traded through. Thus, despite looking like a knife catch today, it’s a reasonable zone to take some risk.

When dealing with cavemen, you’ve got to get biblical. Godspeed mates.

Back To Vigilant Conditions

346 views

Mexico Vigilantes

This is exactly what I have been talking about. You can call it ‘luck of the Fed’ draw, but over the last 10 days we were working within the confines of a PPT oversold signal. I also generated auction data inside the Weekly Strategy Session which also made the case for higher price during the cycle.

But whenever operating outside the cycles, the market is much more erratic. It makes the case for day trading the index but puts some tension in place for multi month swing trading.  Moreover, the primary case it’s making is to drop the hammer when computer brains smarter then me say so, and spend the rest of the time sitting in the shade of a banana tree.  I have no desire to buy any stocks today.

The Russell looks the weakest today but on a relative basis the Nasdaq is leading lower on the week. What’s sketchy about the Nasdaq is we’re now down inside the slip zone from the Fed move meaning, we could slip slide right down it.

Meanwhile in stock land, my new positions are holding up well, so far, but damn, I picked this morning to meet with my tax man and wham, right back in the shit.

Nothing to it but to do it.

Side note – Exodus flagged Overbought on Twitter yesterday with a high degree of accuracy over a 2 day time frame.  For the for the short term trader, does it get any better than this!?  If you were in some weekly call options you were boss hog yesterday, but if you’re still long those bastard instruments right now you’re the castrated male bovine strapped to a wagon.

TWTR_03252015

A Sublime Auction of Unparalleled Beauty

538 views

I love how the Nasdaq is behaving up here. Hopefully showing you this action in real time has you thinking about the markets more like an auction.

This morning we envisioned 2 ways today’s profile would shape up as the day progressed. Here it is again:

NQ_MP_03242015

This morning we worked the orange profile (hypo 2 from this morning’s post) up through value and found responsive sellers on the top side of it. Per the Pelican Room (BTW nice work today Pelicanos) notes:

03242015_12361Notes

My day was essentially done at that point, but while eating a panini I took to Twitter to share the algorithmic Naz100 TICK occurrence that occurred and a way I have been trading it:

03242015_Twitter_Notes

The trade actually gave you a scale and likely a scratch at worst if you managed the long. If I was to take the trade it would only be a scalp because the market had already completed my expected upside progress (hypo 2).

When the market continued lower and especially when it took out opening swing low you could tell the seller meant business but again buyers managed to make some smooth moving counter rotations.

Their attempt from a neutral stance was valiant, but when VPOC shifted back down to 4438 when encouraged sellers to finish their unsettled business by filling that dirty gap below. Good form sellers, good form indeed.

Just a tick below this gap buyers defended though it was all rather predictable and lovely.

This is also day 11 after PPT flagged oversold—another completed cycle and bulls may now reenter the city walls to a reasonable parade, fanfare and libations.

Late last night I was granted access to The Exodus beta. Nearly the entire cloud-mountain is mine to explore before the general population arrives. It is one of the most invigorating experiences of my entire life. All I can say is get excited people.

Why Are We Talking?

411 views

snakeplissken

There’s a new president of the internet, the collective voice of the populace. Adored, respected, the Twitterati go about shaping the direction of global resources with succinct brevity. Therefore despite its heady valuation and premium pricing, it is without doubt I intend to hold equity in this company until it grows into its lanky body and sends share price much higher.

Smaller minds may start feeling ants crawling about their pants to book their gains. I have a whole new vision into stocks as of today. You see, I have been granted early access to Exodus. As a result my computing power has exponentially expanded, and my grasp of micro-drivers is becoming dangerously acute.

On the market front, as long as The [Kurt] Russell continues to comport itself like a leader, its behooves you to take a few steps up the risk ladder.