NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price worked higher overnight, staying inside the Monday cash range. As we approach cash open price is hovering above Monday’s midpoint.
On the economic agenda today we have new home sales and consumer confidence at 10am, 4- and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The day began gap up which sellers quickly worked closed before a strong responsive bid stepped in ahead of last Friday’s low. Buyers stalled out just beyond last Friday’s midpoint and we worked lower, down through the daily range making a new session low. We ramped higher into the bell and then spiked a bit more to the upside after Alphabet reported earnings.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6665.50 From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6654 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers gap and go higher, sustaining trade above 6700 setting up a move to take out overnight hgih 6717.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers come in and we liquidate down to 6600 before two way trade ensues. Stretch downside target is 6578.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, sustaining trade in the lower quadrant of last Friday’s double distribution trend down.
On the economic calendar today we have MARKIT manufacturing/service/composite PMI at 9:45am, existing home sales at 10am, and a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Also be aware Google parent Alphabet, Inc is reporting earnings after-market-close. This is a NASDAQ mover.
Last week we chopped. Some gap ups early in the week, gap downs later in the week. Chop. The Russell showed relative strength. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down then a selling drive away from Thursday range. Price continued lower before coming into balance just ahead of the week’s low.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6676.75. From here sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 6660. Look for buyers down at 6635 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers gap and go higher, up to close the gap at 6777 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers take price down to 6580 before two way trade ensues.
In case you missed it, I blogged in detail about my investing methodology and highlighted my top short bet heading into spring/summer. Click Here to check it out!
Here we are again. The end of April. The IRS has been informed of the finances of all citizens. The middle east is heating up, displacing millions of sapiens who cannot support their tribes without water. As they wander into their neighbor’s territory, base animal instincts flare up and violence ensues. All thanks to global warming.
May usually brings out the bearish commentary and sometimes some broad market weakness. Our good robot friends inside Exodus show us that historically May and June are a coin toss for $QQQ, a popular NASDAQ ETF:
The model we hand build every Sunday when preparing the Strategy Session is neutral for a third week. That means we have no solid signal to forecast a directional bias for the next five trading days. We have to rely on other context, in particular the PHLX semiconductor index. It could be in a topping process. It could also be in balanace. The main thing to keep an eye on is where buyers and sellers ‘should’ be, and how the index actually behaves when we visit those levels. This type of market observation is useful because it does not require you to try and make trading decisions based off noisy factors like politicians, Arabian conflict, or stock market gurus.
::takes a long kombucha sip, swishing the SCOBY::
It was the weakness seen in the semiconductor index last Thursday that had us initiating bearish bets ahead of Friday’s trend down. To see my favorite bearish bet, Click Here!
Aside from contextual cues, we have no way of confidently predicting what may occur next week. But ready yourself for noise and distraction. Do not let the heavy flow of negative news knock you off your feet. Ground yourself by taking a few minutes each day to watch bird behavior, or the way a wave of people fill up the queues at a super market—only for it to be slow moments later. This human phenomenon can be observed especially well at Costco.
Then, as you develop a deeper understanding of human nature, step outside of it and improve your intuitive ability to be a contrarian. But not just a contrarian for the sake of being different. Instead joining nature as it seeks to restore balance. To reach homeostasis.
Cheers lads, it appears spring has finally come to the north. May the season bring to light many prosperous new beginnings.
RAUL SANTOS, April 22nd, 2018
Exodus members, the 179th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked down below Tuesday’s low, Tuesday the conviction trend up day. Shortly after price came into balance. As we approach cash open price is hovering around inside yesterday’s lower quadrant.
There are no economic events today.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. We started out gap down and drove lower. Just below the Wednesday low a responsive bid stepped in but a session high was made in the first hour. Sellers became initiative in the late morning and pushed us deep down into Tuesday’s trend up. Much chop occurred here before an afternoon ramp took hold. We ended the day well below the daily midpoint.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6777. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6790.25. Look for sellers up at 6791.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers make a quick rejection down and out of the Thursday low 6755.25 setting up a move down through overnight low 6733.75. Look for buyers down at 6724.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6800 setting up a move to close the open gap way up to 6843.
And until then our job is to help every animal live their best life, at least until mother nature decides to indiscriminately wipe out millions of mammals with floods. The quants inside Exodus are firing off broad market caution flags that have not been seen in years. Our only contextual ‘tell’ going into the week has been the PHLX Semiconductor index, which is down more than -4% in Thursday afternoon trade.
These objective data points had me shopping for a bearish swing trade for the first time since June 2017 when I took a loss betting against the NASDAQ.
April 2018 RAUL is different than the June 2017 model. I have developed a deeper empathy for the animal spirit, in all its forms. I have not traded individual stocks since I swore off the bastards back in 2015. Yes, I have been at this game a long time lads. My archives run deep inside the hallowed halls of iBankCoin, a place that was once patronized only by proper ladies and gentlemen.
But I do invest. I invest using a method I call faith-based investing which basically means I have unwavering belief in a company and their mission and will buy their equity every quarter with no intention of selling—ever—riding the shares right to the pearly gates and leaving them behind for my kin. Obviously I have to be extremely selective about these stocks because this is an expensive habit. Tesla is one. Twitter is another. CRISPR, AI, and quantum computing themes have me in a few other stocks I shall not mention. Oh, and I also keep a cache of crypto-bucks (all the bitcoins, ethereum, banana coins).
I got enemies though. I can’t be one of these ‘everything is awesome, always take the high road’ leaders. I commend those who can. I have enemies. I should have washed my hands before I began typing this. They are covered in soil. I spent the lunch hour caring for my flower beds.
With dirt on thine hands I am letting it be known the CEO of Canada Goose and his team of murderous trappers are an enemy to RAUL. As of today I have taken bearish positions against the their company’s equity.
There is more to this trade then faith or karma. First, the price chart. I don’t like it. It reminds me of GoPro circa November 2014. Great run up after the IPO, consolidation, attempted breakout higher preceding what would become a long, long, march lower. Much…much…lower ::said aloud with Liam Neeson effect::
Next there is the basic b*tch meter. These coats are worn by basic b*tches, both genders. There is a small market of people who actually wear the coats for arctic explorations, the rest are worn by young urban professionals whose dogs have their own instragram accounts.
Thirdly, we are about to enter summer. The farmers almanac is calling for a dry and hot summer in the north—one that presses extreme heats into late August. Ergo, nobody is going to buy coats filled with boiled geese bits and dog fur.
Let it be known that I intend to keep bearish positions in place on $GOOS through summer’s end. I have also joined the PETA awareness campaign against Canada Goose. We simply ask that they stop the use of animal fur and stop supporting the inhumane trapping industry. There are plenty of faux alternatives that work just as well, if not better.
That is all I have to say. Robots are leaning bearish. My contextual cue is leaning bearish. And faith-based investing methodology (which cannot be rationally explained) has me choosing $GOOS as a means of extracting fiat currency from the financial markets.
Be well and again, happy Earth Day fellow earth citizens.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price campaigned lower during extended trade, working down near the Wednesday low but ultimately holding prior day range. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims came out below expectations and Philly Fed came out better-than-expected.
Also on the economic agenda today we have leading indicators are 10am followed by a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap up which was quickly filled, then we continued to drive lower, working back down into the midpoint of Tuesday’s trend up before finding a strong responsive bid and spending the rest of the day auctioning higher.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6843. Look for sellers up at 6845.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 6856.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, sustaining trade below 6800 to set up a move down to 6761 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume—a trait unseen in globex for many months. Price was balanced overnight, briefly taking out Tuesday’s high before settling into balance.
The economic calendar is light today—crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed Beige book at 2pm.
Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a gap up and and out of range which led to a gap-and-go higher. The rest of the session was spent auctioning higher, offering little in the way of a pullback.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6828.50. From here we cotninue lower, poking down below overnight low 6816.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade us down to 6809.75 before two way trade.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 6858.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 6883.75 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up, out of range after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and extreme range. Price worked higher all night, at first rapidly after Netflix reported better-than-expected earnings and guided higher Monday evening, then slowly throughout the night to levels unseen since late March. At 8:30am housing starts and building permits both came in better-than-expected.
Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing production at 9:15am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and IBM earnings after-market-close.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began gap up in range. Sellers worked the overnight gap nearly closed before a strong buy stepped in. Sellers worked a full gap fill later in the morning, eventually taking out overnight low by a few ticks before a responsive bid stepped in. We traversed the entire daily range and eventually closed at session high.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher. Price trades up to 6774.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6712.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 6698.50. Look for sellers down at 6694 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6774.75 setting up a move to target 6814.75 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was choppy overnight, creating a balanced profile while trading inside of the Friday range. At 8:30am advance retail sales data came out better-than-expected.
Also on the economic docket today we have business inventories at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and long-term TIC flows at 4pm.
Last week markets worked sideways-to-higher in choppy, volatile action. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began gap up to new high-of-week. Sellers drove lower closing the gap and eventually taking out the Thursday low before responsive buyers stepped in. Sellers became initiative later in the day, making a new session low before the week’s end.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6659.75. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6642.25. Look for buyers down at 6639.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 6698. Look for sellers up at 6708.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6708.25 setting up a move to target 6750.25 before two way trade ensues.
“No man is wiser than Socrates. But if no man is wiser than the man who knows he is without wisdom, it seems to follow that “learned ignorance” is the only wisdom that man can have.” -Socratic Ignorance
Models are neutral for a second week. That means there is no solid way of me forecasting which direction the stock market will trade over the next five days. If I did have a solid way of making a forecast, I would present a confident forecast then spend the next days working that side of the market. This is how I have become a consistently profitable trader.
That and closing overnight gaps. The overnight gap, in-range has been so good to me. I always think of overnight gaps, in-range like the teach a man to fish saying. The trade keeps a roof over my head and wholesome food on my plate.
But beyond a solid five-day bias, and outside of trading overnight gaps, I really have no idea what the market intends to do. Anyone claiming otherwise should be questioned and their reasoning put to the stoic test to see if it holds water. If they are relying on their political wit, and they are not privy to secret (illegal) information, cast their opinion aside. If they are relying on hearsay from someone else, thank them for their thoughts then kindly rinse their nonsense from your mental RAM.
There are few things I hold firm and using data to form a prediction is one. I am a speculator by trade. This is my vocation. It is something I love, and also something I take seriously. It is a business like any other. It has overhead and cost-of-goods sold. It has revenues and working capital. It needs to be audited regularly and there needs to be a plan in place. A plan extending beyond three years starts to enter fantasy land, but you can plan out your next three years.
In three years you can change, and improve, and achieve while still maintaining focus.
That is all I can offer you this icy Sunday morning—the option to ignorant.
Exodus members, the 178th edition of Strategy Session is live. Go check out the one contextual piece we will be watching (for a second week) to provide simple, objective, directional bias.