I’m A Basic Bitch

114 views

One of the comedic features of our current market rout is the asinine abandonment of basic materials. What, the future doesn’t need things?

Now gold, screw gold, you can trade gold. I am following Option Addict’s lead and accumulating our favorite conductor Mr. Copper. Copper is an industrial metal used by men to pipe gas and more. It’s not this nonsense gold you find dangling down a hairy Greek’s chest.

I doubled down on SCCO this morning.

The Summer Rotation Is Underway

268 views

Nobody wants to own commodities anymore. They don’t want equities either—you can’t blow a 4 foot hole in a humvee with a stock. The only thing worth owning during “markets in crisis” is a doomsday shelter. Also, for whatever reason, REITS, lots and lots of REITS.

If you even remotely paid attention to the Exodus algorithms these last 3 weeks, you were very diligently instructed to prepare for a rotation into REITs. It was literally the least sexy thing you could do. Let’s be honest—men are hideous mammals and our only appeal is stability. And what is stability?

Money and biceps.

Do I care if my DOC position sees a 15% capital appreciation? No, it just needs to pay me a dividend.

My book is otherwise completely ablaze, down nearly 2% despite being over 20% cash. This is the knife of owning beta. The market has unfinished business lower. It is better we take care of it sooner, rather than later. Pull the duct tape off in one rip, not a series of little peels, for fucked sake.

By the way, Fly added something a little different to this month’s site features.  You can email me twosmuth@gmail.com for a snapshot of your favorite stock’s overbought/oversold levels.  If you’re even considering buying today’s blood, do yourself a favor and find out if the bastard ticker is flagged by our super computers.

Building A Swing Low

148 views

Nasdaq futures are trading flat after working higher for most of the overnight session. Price stalled out just ahead of the major CVN and just below the session high from two Monday’s back (the first Greek gap down). Range and volume were both elevated a touch above first sigma.

On the economic docket we saw Trade Balance data come out inline with expectations. At 3pm we have Consumer Credit. More importantly, we’ll hear minutes from The Fed’s June 16th meeting tomorrow at 2pm. Keep in mind there is also a Eurozone summit taking place right now pertaining to the Greek Referendum.

Yesterday started gap down but not nearly as extreme as futures were pricing Sunday night, instead open within the range/balance we’ve formed these last several weeks. The dilemma now, when it comes to participating with strength, is the nature of our current low—set during globex.

The market has been setting up context pieces like this, and methodically settling them. Take open gaps for example. Yesterday we went and closed up the 6/30 gap before finding responsive buyers then reversing the auction higher and closing the overnight gap.

Overall the market looks balanced/choppy. My primary expectation today is for buyers to push into the early morning short inventory. Look for a push up to take out overnight high 4448 and close the open gap up at 4454. From here, look for sellers to defend the 6/26 range and roll us over.

Hypo 2 is sellers work lower off the open, take out overnight low 4419.50 and push to target the VPOC at 4413.25. From here look for 2-way trade to ensue with buyers sustaining prices north of the 4400 century mark.

Hypo 3 liquidation takes hold, we press down through 4400 and set our sights on 4370.50.

Levels:

07072015_NQ_VP

Ladies and Gentlemen: We Have a Market

348 views

There is so much wrong right now. Greece voted no, the keno halls of China’s stock market are filled with losing bets, oil is plunging.

Population centers are currently fully ablaze by the sun. It is the exact opposite of first snow where everyone simultaneously forgets how to drive. Unaware of how the heat is affecting you, the media sets their target on your psyche, boiling your brain like a marshed mallow. Despite it all, and boy did they lay it on thick, buyers showed today and played ball.

In the wake of horrendous index gaps, we saw the quality tech holding up—companies like Apple and Telsa. My book continues to be hammered but is showing green shoots. Exodus rotational analysis plays DOC and NRG are working well, and thanks to a team of supercomputers, I am working with a green QLD position. There’s more, yah, but get the point.

The biggest thing making me hesitant is that ugly overnight low. We rarely mark swing high/low during globex. But the Nasdsaq battlefield overall looks like the aftermath of a turf war with crime scenes all over the place.

The market is chopping around. Homework pays big in these conditions, stick to your plans and execute on your terms, not the markets.  Remember the winter:

By the way, if you have a favorite stock or ETF you want to see overbought/oversold levels on, email me twosmuth@gmail.com.

 

Setting Up The Nasdaq for Another Greek Week

257 views

Nasdaq futures are lower heading into Monday’s trade. The 3-day holiday weekend came to an end with news that Greece citizens voted against the proposed referendum. The news sent US equity futures sharply lower when they opened yesterday evening. Since then we have printed an abnormal range, nearly 60 points, on abnormal volume. We’ve spent most of the session squeezing higher.

At 10 am we have ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite stats and looking forward we have FOMC minutes scheduled for release 2pm Wednesday.

We closed out last week churning inside of Monday’s big trend down range. The market overall showed signs of balance which, in a way, suggests participants were accepting prices lower. We’re heading into today within that range, but with a questionable globex swing low.

The chart looks like a giant crime scene, with 4 gaps littered across it. We’ll be opening right near the 6/30 gap, so that one will vanish leacing only the three overhead gaps.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work the gap fill higher. Look to take out overnight high 4402.75 then attempt a full gap fill up to 4428.25 but stall out around 4416.50. Sellers defend this area and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall ahead of overnight high 4402.75 and we push down through 4381.75 setting up a liquidation down to test overnight low 4344.

Hypo 3 full gap fill up, trade through to 4428.25 early and continue to test 4434.50.

Levels:

07062015_NQ_VPMP

BACK TO WORK

329 views

Hopefully you’ve enjoyed your extended weekend. Unfortunately, it is without doubt that most of you partook in an Ungentlemanly 4th of July—guzzling low end meats gargling foamy beer—and you’re not prepared for the upcoming week. News flash:

The market is wholly unconcerned with your unpreparedness. If you take action from a position of weakness, you will be sniffed out by ravenous algo wolves, and torn to smithereens.

Fortunately you have, all of you have the opportunity to come inside our fortified walls. The below picture is from last night’s Exodus 4th of July party:

stacksONstacks

Don’t bet against these market conditions without helper robots, no. Don’t lose your life. Also, the Strategy Session is complete. Inside it we recap last week’s action, build context for the upcoming week, and frame some actionable trading ideas. The idea flow is electric.

So clean up, put some aloe on your tank-top sunburn, eat a lean meal, and start preparing for another week of summer markets.

Obsessed With The Mess That’s America

694 views

All these stocks selling off are taking the wind right out from under my wings. Financial markets and military power are the last standing pillars of USA superiority. To see our market succumb to the duress in Europe ahead of the weekend is a universal crime.

When the week started in pure calamity buyers were there. I was all puffed chest like a big dumb bird because I thought this country would never see their markets destruct on the eve of great national celebration. But we’re not China. Our central planners don’t pace through golden hallways and concoct patriotic schemes. Instead they sit idle, allowing the invisible hand to work. Which is cool, it’s cool, but the invisible hand is not doing a very good job finding buyers.

So we’re adrift lower. I bought into Friday’s weakness, and Monday’s. I bought into yesterday’s strength. I still have more cash but it looks like it will be earmarked for next week.

There’s no urgency to buy this market. Headline risk is high and liquidity is low. With the equities looking sick, it only makes sense we start a war. At the very least, we should ratchet up our drone delivery of 500 pound CORRECTIONS 10 fold. If we can’t work our markets higher in celebration of our Independence, we must blast the ideologies of ISIS into cosmic vapor. Best damn firework display in the world.

Weak Bounce Ahead of The Holiday

220 views

Nasdaq futures are up a touch as we head into the last day of trade this week. Tomorrow the US markets are closed in observation of Independence Day. Range overnight managed to push a touch beyond first sigma on normal volume.

At 8:30am the NFP data was released and mediocre. The stand out stat was a 62.6% drop in labor force participation. The market reactions to the data have overall been subdued. Third reaction hasn’t occurred yet to my eye, perhaps the opening bell will bring it. We also have Factory Orders at 10am and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we opened pro gap up, the third pro gap on the week, and after an early morning push higher we rolled over and traded back into Tuesday’s range. Sellers weren’t quite able to close the overnight gap before buyers came in and balanced out the session.

Intermediate term we aren’t really going anywhere. Instead we remain range bound.

The overall structure of the current swing low is somewhat troubling. It has a blunt tip on the volume profile which suggests we weren’t quite done doing business lower. We never followed through on the trend day down, and there’s an open gap below.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and fill the gap down to 4422.75. Look for buyers around 4415.75 otherwise we continue lower to target the 4400 century mark and close Tuesday’s gap down to 4390.

Hypo 2 buyers hold north of 4415.75 setting up a push higher to take out overnight high 4441.50 and target the open gap at 4454.

Levels:07022015_NQ_VPMP

Europe Needs More Deal Makers

385 views

Immigrant hustle has always fascinated me. For the past two days a crew of arborists has been literally swinging tree-to-tree through my neighborhood. Their chainsaws and foreign banter have been a constant for the last 24 daylight hours, making ever more pleasant the wealth destruction occurring in my book today.

If you would have asked me last week if I expected NRG to be 6% in the hole by today I would literally have laughed in your face and offered you a dual by slapping you with a little silk glove.  It’s plunging into the abyss today along with the other lemming utilities.

It’s comrade in my “flight to safety” DOC is doing OK. Still, I want to ram my fist down the computer screens throat. So after I worked the futures down the zipper and back to yesterday’s range I changed gears and went to negotiate with the tree choppers.

Business, but in particular investing, is about finding the value of something and paying less for it. Value is based on the perception and interaction of buyers and sellers. The charts you see me post each morning are an attempt to apply objective numbers to these interactions.

Person-to-person interactions are different then clicking a button on a screen—a physical presence for one. Nothing closes a deal like counting cash in front of someone. It’s like, do you want to be this guy?

happy chainsaw

Or do you want to want to be this loser?

NOworkChainsaw

TAKE THE DEAL, here’s the money. America is at the mercy of Greece and apparently they don’t like deals. Meanwhile, everyone’s ignoring tomorrow morning’s NonFarm Payroll, therefore I expect a huge reaction when it reveals more hamburger eating citizens have dropped out of the work force and unemployment is on the rise further confirming the inability of The Fed to raise rates. Until then, I’ll go back to dodging falling tree limbs.

3 Days, 3 Pro Gaps

295 views

Futures have been busy inside the hours of globex. Futures have been busy during RTH. Futures, have been busy. The globex open was delayed last night while the exchange made an adjustment for a leap second. It’s rare, and weird, but if you’re a real market junky click here for the full CME documentation. Despite the shortened session we managed to print a highly abnormal range, beyond second sigma, on abnormally high volume. Greece officially defaulted on the IMF last night, but the session was otherwise without much headline volatility.

On deck this morning, we have ISM manufacturing at 10am but attention is likely to soon shift to tomorrow morning’s NFP release, set to be out a day early due to the markets being closed Friday.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day inside of the lower half of Monday’s trend day down. Sellers worked the overnight gap closed before buyers came in and in one swift rotation pushed through the entire range to put us neutral before we settled back to the mid.

The overnight action has created a curious case—we now have a gap below that likely needs to be resolved, but we’re also trading just below a few upside gaps. Also just above is the VPOC of the whole year at about 4450. Sellers roundly rejected the CVPOC Monday morning, but now we’re back up to test their conviction.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open, gap-and-go style, to take out overnight high 4441.75. This sets up a move to the CVPOC at 4450 and the open gap at 4454 where we churn about before ultimately fading lower into the afternoon.

Hypo 2 sellers push into the overnight inventory to test yesterday’s range 4412.50 but stall ahead of the range setting up a move higher to take out overnight high 4441.75 and target the CVPOC/open gap 4450/4454.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through yesterday’s range 4412.50 setting up a gap fill to 4390. Sellers overshoot the gap and take out overnight low 4388.75 setting up a test of swing low 4368.25. This hypo will require heavy OTF participation because we’ve managed to form some decent structure below (see market profile).

Levels:

07012015_NQ_VPMP

I’m A Basic Bitch

114 views

One of the comedic features of our current market rout is the asinine abandonment of basic materials. What, the future doesn’t need things?

Now gold, screw gold, you can trade gold. I am following Option Addict’s lead and accumulating our favorite conductor Mr. Copper. Copper is an industrial metal used by men to pipe gas and more. It’s not this nonsense gold you find dangling down a hairy Greek’s chest.

I doubled down on SCCO this morning.

The Summer Rotation Is Underway

268 views

Nobody wants to own commodities anymore. They don’t want equities either—you can’t blow a 4 foot hole in a humvee with a stock. The only thing worth owning during “markets in crisis” is a doomsday shelter. Also, for whatever reason, REITS, lots and lots of REITS.

If you even remotely paid attention to the Exodus algorithms these last 3 weeks, you were very diligently instructed to prepare for a rotation into REITs. It was literally the least sexy thing you could do. Let’s be honest—men are hideous mammals and our only appeal is stability. And what is stability?

Money and biceps.

Do I care if my DOC position sees a 15% capital appreciation? No, it just needs to pay me a dividend.

My book is otherwise completely ablaze, down nearly 2% despite being over 20% cash. This is the knife of owning beta. The market has unfinished business lower. It is better we take care of it sooner, rather than later. Pull the duct tape off in one rip, not a series of little peels, for fucked sake.

By the way, Fly added something a little different to this month’s site features.  You can email me twosmuth@gmail.com for a snapshot of your favorite stock’s overbought/oversold levels.  If you’re even considering buying today’s blood, do yourself a favor and find out if the bastard ticker is flagged by our super computers.

Building A Swing Low

148 views

Nasdaq futures are trading flat after working higher for most of the overnight session. Price stalled out just ahead of the major CVN and just below the session high from two Monday’s back (the first Greek gap down). Range and volume were both elevated a touch above first sigma.

On the economic docket we saw Trade Balance data come out inline with expectations. At 3pm we have Consumer Credit. More importantly, we’ll hear minutes from The Fed’s June 16th meeting tomorrow at 2pm. Keep in mind there is also a Eurozone summit taking place right now pertaining to the Greek Referendum.

Yesterday started gap down but not nearly as extreme as futures were pricing Sunday night, instead open within the range/balance we’ve formed these last several weeks. The dilemma now, when it comes to participating with strength, is the nature of our current low—set during globex.

The market has been setting up context pieces like this, and methodically settling them. Take open gaps for example. Yesterday we went and closed up the 6/30 gap before finding responsive buyers then reversing the auction higher and closing the overnight gap.

Overall the market looks balanced/choppy. My primary expectation today is for buyers to push into the early morning short inventory. Look for a push up to take out overnight high 4448 and close the open gap up at 4454. From here, look for sellers to defend the 6/26 range and roll us over.

Hypo 2 is sellers work lower off the open, take out overnight low 4419.50 and push to target the VPOC at 4413.25. From here look for 2-way trade to ensue with buyers sustaining prices north of the 4400 century mark.

Hypo 3 liquidation takes hold, we press down through 4400 and set our sights on 4370.50.

Levels:

07072015_NQ_VP

Ladies and Gentlemen: We Have a Market

348 views

There is so much wrong right now. Greece voted no, the keno halls of China’s stock market are filled with losing bets, oil is plunging.

Population centers are currently fully ablaze by the sun. It is the exact opposite of first snow where everyone simultaneously forgets how to drive. Unaware of how the heat is affecting you, the media sets their target on your psyche, boiling your brain like a marshed mallow. Despite it all, and boy did they lay it on thick, buyers showed today and played ball.

In the wake of horrendous index gaps, we saw the quality tech holding up—companies like Apple and Telsa. My book continues to be hammered but is showing green shoots. Exodus rotational analysis plays DOC and NRG are working well, and thanks to a team of supercomputers, I am working with a green QLD position. There’s more, yah, but get the point.

The biggest thing making me hesitant is that ugly overnight low. We rarely mark swing high/low during globex. But the Nasdsaq battlefield overall looks like the aftermath of a turf war with crime scenes all over the place.

The market is chopping around. Homework pays big in these conditions, stick to your plans and execute on your terms, not the markets.  Remember the winter:

By the way, if you have a favorite stock or ETF you want to see overbought/oversold levels on, email me twosmuth@gmail.com.

 

Setting Up The Nasdaq for Another Greek Week

257 views

Nasdaq futures are lower heading into Monday’s trade. The 3-day holiday weekend came to an end with news that Greece citizens voted against the proposed referendum. The news sent US equity futures sharply lower when they opened yesterday evening. Since then we have printed an abnormal range, nearly 60 points, on abnormal volume. We’ve spent most of the session squeezing higher.

At 10 am we have ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite stats and looking forward we have FOMC minutes scheduled for release 2pm Wednesday.

We closed out last week churning inside of Monday’s big trend down range. The market overall showed signs of balance which, in a way, suggests participants were accepting prices lower. We’re heading into today within that range, but with a questionable globex swing low.

The chart looks like a giant crime scene, with 4 gaps littered across it. We’ll be opening right near the 6/30 gap, so that one will vanish leacing only the three overhead gaps.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work the gap fill higher. Look to take out overnight high 4402.75 then attempt a full gap fill up to 4428.25 but stall out around 4416.50. Sellers defend this area and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall ahead of overnight high 4402.75 and we push down through 4381.75 setting up a liquidation down to test overnight low 4344.

Hypo 3 full gap fill up, trade through to 4428.25 early and continue to test 4434.50.

Levels:

07062015_NQ_VPMP

BACK TO WORK

329 views

Hopefully you’ve enjoyed your extended weekend. Unfortunately, it is without doubt that most of you partook in an Ungentlemanly 4th of July—guzzling low end meats gargling foamy beer—and you’re not prepared for the upcoming week. News flash:

The market is wholly unconcerned with your unpreparedness. If you take action from a position of weakness, you will be sniffed out by ravenous algo wolves, and torn to smithereens.

Fortunately you have, all of you have the opportunity to come inside our fortified walls. The below picture is from last night’s Exodus 4th of July party:

stacksONstacks

Don’t bet against these market conditions without helper robots, no. Don’t lose your life. Also, the Strategy Session is complete. Inside it we recap last week’s action, build context for the upcoming week, and frame some actionable trading ideas. The idea flow is electric.

So clean up, put some aloe on your tank-top sunburn, eat a lean meal, and start preparing for another week of summer markets.

Obsessed With The Mess That’s America

694 views

All these stocks selling off are taking the wind right out from under my wings. Financial markets and military power are the last standing pillars of USA superiority. To see our market succumb to the duress in Europe ahead of the weekend is a universal crime.

When the week started in pure calamity buyers were there. I was all puffed chest like a big dumb bird because I thought this country would never see their markets destruct on the eve of great national celebration. But we’re not China. Our central planners don’t pace through golden hallways and concoct patriotic schemes. Instead they sit idle, allowing the invisible hand to work. Which is cool, it’s cool, but the invisible hand is not doing a very good job finding buyers.

So we’re adrift lower. I bought into Friday’s weakness, and Monday’s. I bought into yesterday’s strength. I still have more cash but it looks like it will be earmarked for next week.

There’s no urgency to buy this market. Headline risk is high and liquidity is low. With the equities looking sick, it only makes sense we start a war. At the very least, we should ratchet up our drone delivery of 500 pound CORRECTIONS 10 fold. If we can’t work our markets higher in celebration of our Independence, we must blast the ideologies of ISIS into cosmic vapor. Best damn firework display in the world.

Weak Bounce Ahead of The Holiday

220 views

Nasdaq futures are up a touch as we head into the last day of trade this week. Tomorrow the US markets are closed in observation of Independence Day. Range overnight managed to push a touch beyond first sigma on normal volume.

At 8:30am the NFP data was released and mediocre. The stand out stat was a 62.6% drop in labor force participation. The market reactions to the data have overall been subdued. Third reaction hasn’t occurred yet to my eye, perhaps the opening bell will bring it. We also have Factory Orders at 10am and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we opened pro gap up, the third pro gap on the week, and after an early morning push higher we rolled over and traded back into Tuesday’s range. Sellers weren’t quite able to close the overnight gap before buyers came in and balanced out the session.

Intermediate term we aren’t really going anywhere. Instead we remain range bound.

The overall structure of the current swing low is somewhat troubling. It has a blunt tip on the volume profile which suggests we weren’t quite done doing business lower. We never followed through on the trend day down, and there’s an open gap below.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and fill the gap down to 4422.75. Look for buyers around 4415.75 otherwise we continue lower to target the 4400 century mark and close Tuesday’s gap down to 4390.

Hypo 2 buyers hold north of 4415.75 setting up a push higher to take out overnight high 4441.50 and target the open gap at 4454.

Levels:07022015_NQ_VPMP

Europe Needs More Deal Makers

385 views

Immigrant hustle has always fascinated me. For the past two days a crew of arborists has been literally swinging tree-to-tree through my neighborhood. Their chainsaws and foreign banter have been a constant for the last 24 daylight hours, making ever more pleasant the wealth destruction occurring in my book today.

If you would have asked me last week if I expected NRG to be 6% in the hole by today I would literally have laughed in your face and offered you a dual by slapping you with a little silk glove.  It’s plunging into the abyss today along with the other lemming utilities.

It’s comrade in my “flight to safety” DOC is doing OK. Still, I want to ram my fist down the computer screens throat. So after I worked the futures down the zipper and back to yesterday’s range I changed gears and went to negotiate with the tree choppers.

Business, but in particular investing, is about finding the value of something and paying less for it. Value is based on the perception and interaction of buyers and sellers. The charts you see me post each morning are an attempt to apply objective numbers to these interactions.

Person-to-person interactions are different then clicking a button on a screen—a physical presence for one. Nothing closes a deal like counting cash in front of someone. It’s like, do you want to be this guy?

happy chainsaw

Or do you want to want to be this loser?

NOworkChainsaw

TAKE THE DEAL, here’s the money. America is at the mercy of Greece and apparently they don’t like deals. Meanwhile, everyone’s ignoring tomorrow morning’s NonFarm Payroll, therefore I expect a huge reaction when it reveals more hamburger eating citizens have dropped out of the work force and unemployment is on the rise further confirming the inability of The Fed to raise rates. Until then, I’ll go back to dodging falling tree limbs.

3 Days, 3 Pro Gaps

295 views

Futures have been busy inside the hours of globex. Futures have been busy during RTH. Futures, have been busy. The globex open was delayed last night while the exchange made an adjustment for a leap second. It’s rare, and weird, but if you’re a real market junky click here for the full CME documentation. Despite the shortened session we managed to print a highly abnormal range, beyond second sigma, on abnormally high volume. Greece officially defaulted on the IMF last night, but the session was otherwise without much headline volatility.

On deck this morning, we have ISM manufacturing at 10am but attention is likely to soon shift to tomorrow morning’s NFP release, set to be out a day early due to the markets being closed Friday.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day inside of the lower half of Monday’s trend day down. Sellers worked the overnight gap closed before buyers came in and in one swift rotation pushed through the entire range to put us neutral before we settled back to the mid.

The overnight action has created a curious case—we now have a gap below that likely needs to be resolved, but we’re also trading just below a few upside gaps. Also just above is the VPOC of the whole year at about 4450. Sellers roundly rejected the CVPOC Monday morning, but now we’re back up to test their conviction.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open, gap-and-go style, to take out overnight high 4441.75. This sets up a move to the CVPOC at 4450 and the open gap at 4454 where we churn about before ultimately fading lower into the afternoon.

Hypo 2 sellers push into the overnight inventory to test yesterday’s range 4412.50 but stall ahead of the range setting up a move higher to take out overnight high 4441.75 and target the CVPOC/open gap 4450/4454.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through yesterday’s range 4412.50 setting up a gap fill to 4390. Sellers overshoot the gap and take out overnight low 4388.75 setting up a test of swing low 4368.25. This hypo will require heavy OTF participation because we’ve managed to form some decent structure below (see market profile).

Levels:

07012015_NQ_VPMP