iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,039 Blog Posts

NASDAQ nearly erases omicron losses // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second-to-last day in November up a quick +180 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher Sunday evening and then balanced for several hours, balancing along the upper quadrant of Friday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering along the overnight high.

On the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we saw an early Monday rally to record highs faded aggressively the rest of the day. Then continuation selling Tuesday. Relief rally Wednesday (into Thanksgiving). Covid-variant news hits tape very early Friday morning and price trended lower into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down. The day began with a gap down into the Wednesday midpoint. After a test higher failed to close the overnight gap sellers stepped in and began driving lower, effectively taking out the weekly lows by about 11am. Then there was a brief bounce before sellers continued pressing the tape lower, effectively closing us on the lows during the shortened holiday session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tagging the omicron gap up at 16,358.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out around 16,300 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 16,100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measures moves:

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Circling the wagons

I was jarred awake around 3:33am by a dream about an ultra-violent storm. I’ve noticed the ferocity of natural disaster dreams have become more visceral as I grow older. It’s funny, I often quip that elder Raul will, “put the fear of a 40mph wind in you.” That surly old Italian is ornery and always looking at trees like they’re gonna fall. The winds in my dream have a real pressure to them. Maybe I’m having little strokes in my sleep.

We don’t know.

What we do know is early Friday morning the royal ‘they’ hit the newswires with a new covid-19 variant out of Africa. I am still super skeptical we needed to do all this pandemic cosplay to begin with. Before I lose you to this divisive topic, let me go back to one more fact and then I’ll do one more joke and then we’ll move on. Fact—Bill Gates goes on Netflix in 2019 on a show called Explained and warns that we are hella not ready to handle pandemics. And then bing-bang-boom, a pandemic whips up. Whatever.

Joke—Friday morning I was so shook, for a variety of reasons, that I was finally motivated to go have my booster shot. Pfizer. Got a 6pm appointment at the nearest CVS. Smoked reefer on the way and didn’t wear a mask during the jabbing. Wore a sweater with nothing underneath so I had to reveal ma belly to the pharmacist. Because the whole thing is so absurd. I only did the original inoculation because my yoga studio required it. My favorite mountain resort (revelstoke) now also requires proof of vaccination. They got me with the passport feature. Prior to these restrictions, and mind you I life like a mad degenerate sex fiend, I didn’t take any medicines. Not even a multivitamin. I grow and cook super freaking healthy food and consume a lot of it. It’s like feeding a team of horses and rabbits. I eat 7-to-20 times a day, from a giant food bowl of vegetables. Lately I eat eggs like a snake, 4-to-9 eggs per week. And enough cheese and ale to make a monk blush. I haven’t had fish meat in a while because I just haven’t bothered to pick any up. The only drugs that make it into this body are reefer, caffeine, hootch, and the occasional LSD or mushing room.

But now my body is tainted with the covid inoculations. Made my odor shift from brine to sweet. My cock is an absolute deviant, demanding relief at least 4x per day. My hair and beard are going down past my neck like Rumpelstiltskin, and strangers on the internet are telling me my heart is going to explode any minute.

Will it? Again, we don’t know.

What I do know is that dream brought me to attention, and I sat down and started looking at 30-year charts of Apple and Microsoft. I am very frustrated with myself. For weeks, weeks, 18 weeks…I waded through signal after signal from the IndexModel, which has been sending out bearish signals way more than usual since the Stocklabs fundamental score came to life. And I’ve been writing about it in my diary. About how maybe I need to tweak the system, but that I’d better stick with it for now. And I stuck with it, right up until last week. Last week I intervened because it was Thanksgiving. And the fucking sentiment of a big american family meal fucked me out of a good trade that I needed.

Listen, actively trading is so simple but it can be also fucked. Opportunities are slim. Over-trading is the enemy. Doubting yourself and your process is certain death.

Heading into next week we have a Bunker Buster. This signal hasn’t fired in a long time but it did today. My play is to not trade these weeks. Instead I focus on accumulating my absolute highest conviction long-term investments.

What are those?

Good question. I will be asking that of myself all week. But first I will flush out some of the low-conviction stuff I’ve been holding. Then I will redeploy. All this whilst traveling down to Miami to nerd out with the NFT nerds.

Winter is here.

Raul Santos, November 28th 2021

And now the 366th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/29/21 – 12/03/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.28, medium bear*. Price accelerates to the downside early in the week, perhaps fueled by commentary out of Fed Chairman Powell Tueday morning. Eventually look for the markets to form a sharp, tradable low and rally into week’s end. Non-farm payroll data due out Friday might be what ultimately pivots price higher.

*Bunker Buster triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Early Monday rally to record highs is faded aggressively the rest of the day. Continuation selling Tuesday. Relief rally Wednesday (into Thanksgiving). Covid-variant news hits tape very early Friday morning and price trends lower into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Key sectors leading to the downside.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

The bullish skew thirteen weeks back was negated two weeks ago. More strong sell flows last week.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Absolutely kicking myself

I can be my worst critic, and rightfully so when I commit errors that jeopardize my livelihood. I have been plagued by overconfidence my entire trading career. It is most often after things go well that I lose discipline.

Change is hard. The older I become, the more empathy I have for this struggle. We switched from Exodus to Stocklabs a little over a year ago, but the real switch in the data happened August 1st. That is when the fundamental score came back to life after being pegged at 3.2 for 23 weeks.

It resulted in IndexModel generating way more bearish signals than it ever had. I am still unsure what to think, which sucks big time.

While all this data gathering and weekend researching may seem odd and low-value-added to most readers, it has been my rock. It give me the confidence to enter an arena with the most sophisticated and resource-rich competition in the world.

However losing confidence in it is a slippery slope.

I stuck to the system all the way up until last week (last week’s Section III title: “human intervention”). And then last week happened, and I am absolutely furious with myself.

Something has to change. Or maybe nothing needs to change at all.

One thing is clear—emotionally I am not in the place I need to be to work with my normal risk.

I raised a bunch of cash Friday. Probably selling into the proverbial hole. I am totally fine with that. I know where I am emotionally and I need to figure some things out before I start running hot.

This week we have a bunker buster. This has always been a difficult signal for me to trade. It calls for an acceleration to the downside that eventually results in a tradeable low. I find it is best to spend these weeks accumulating long-term positions.

Therefore my plan is to retool my portfolio a bit. I have cash to deploy. I have leverage I can deploy. But first I feel the need to purge, and then I will circle the wagons around my absolute top conviction tickers.

I’ve never done well trading/investing in too many things at once. It’s all fine and dandy until the entire risk universe goes risk off. Then you’re scrambling around like a lunatic.

Fortunately I am not spread out too much right now, but I will say I am spread out too much.

Time to circle the wagons, clarify my research, and dial back into trading the NASDAQ extremely well—but no active trading this week.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Price accelerates to the downside early in the week, perhaps fueled by commentary out of Fed Chairman Powell Tueday morning. Eventually look for the markets to form a sharp, tradable low and rally into week’s end. Non-farm payroll data due out Friday might be what ultimately pivots price higher.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Still looks like discovery

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are about -500 points off their high and coming into an old resistance zone. Primary expectation is for buyers to defend this region and for discovery up to continue.

See below:

Semiconductors are off the highs but still appear to be in discover up.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling Bunker Buster. The last Bunker Buster was thirty nine weeks ago.

Bunker Buster calls for an acceleration of volatility that eventually concludes with a sharp low being printed that holds for several weeks.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“What matters to an active man is to do the right thing; whether the right thing comes to pass should not bother him.” – Goethe

Trade simple, trust the process

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Economic data rattles the early tape // here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day before Thanksgiving down about -115 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the Tuesday midpoint until 8:30am when a slew of economic data hit the tape. GDP came out in line with expectations. Durable goods order slightly below the low end of expectations. Jobless claims better-than-expected. As we approach cash openprice is hovering in the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have new home sales and consumer sentiment at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am. Then the FOMC minutes are due out at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down below range. After a brief test lower buyers drove into the gap and closed it. Sellers rejected a move back into Monday range shortly thereafter setting up a selloff that lasted through to mid afternoon. Buyers stepped in ahead of last week’s low, down in the lower quadrant of Monday’s range and we ramped higher for the rest of the session, eventually crossing the mid and closing above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 16,268.75. Buyers continue higher, taking out overnight high 16,356. Look for sellers up at 16,371.50. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through Tuesday low 16,118. Look for buyers down at 16,100. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 16,041.75. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Choreographed sell-off abates // here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading pan

NASDAQ futures are coming into this Tuesday before Thanksgiving with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price first probed lower overnight, probing down near last Wednesday’s low before catching a bid. Since then we are about +100 points higher and as we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Monday low.

On the economic calendar today we have PMI composite flash at 9:45am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The action was methodical, almost appearing choreographed. The day started out with a drive higher. Buyers drove higher for the first 45 minutes, tagging the weekly ATR high band. Before buyers could push a range extension up responsive sellers stepped in and made a hard move down through the midpoint, setting up an early range extension down and gap fill. Seller than continued lower and closed the Thursday gap. Buyers showed up here and began sort of grinding price back towards the mid but they never made it there. Instead sellers made a second leg lower, effectively tagging the weekly ATR low band as we closed out the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 16,414.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 16,459.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 16,274 setting up a move down to 16,227.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +70 into short week // here is Monday trading plan

NASDSAQ futures are heading into Thanksgiving week gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price drifted higher overnight, drifting up to new all time highs. As we approach cash open price is pinned to all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, 6-month bill and 2-year note auctions at 11:30am and 3-month bill and 5-year note auctions at 1pm.

Last week saw some weakness early Monday. Then a week-long rally in the tech-heavy NASDAQ while the S&P sort of drifted and the other two indices were weak.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day. The day began with a gap up beyond Thursday’s high. After a brief test lower buyers stepped in and pushed a bit beyond 16,600. Price ended up making a range extension up around lunchtime and then went neutral shortly afterwards.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go, tagging 16,666 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 16,700.

Hypo 3 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 16,572.50. Look for buyers down at 16,544.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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The middle is a trap

Hello there chaps,

I’ve updated the weekend research just now and was struck by a bearish signal from IndexModel. The only other bearish indication was industry flows last week, which were decidedly bearish:

Hopefully by now we all understand what is going on—there are a handful of tickers that prop up the entire equity complex. They are absolute champions of industry. Immortal giants who bestow upon us magical offerings like same-day shipping on millions of goods or free email. It takes a certain humility to only invest in these juggernauts. Everyone wants to be smart and find the next big thing.

Here’s the problem with that. Most of us are medium smart at best. And that’s okay as long as you don’t commit the mistakes of a medium smart average thinker.

The middle of anything is an absolute trap. Middle class—assholes. Middle income—wage cucks. Mid-tier hotels—LAME.

Me I lean stupid. For example. I am headed to Miami for Art Basel. Once in Miami I am in a position of privilege. My cousin is the meteorologist there, and she has inside access to the most exclusive events.

My friends are also there. They have all the trimmings of upper-class living. Lamborghini racing cars. Condominiums with warp-around ocean and bay views.

My privilege comes in the form of being really, stupidly, extremely good looking. That trait is good as gold in a town as wonderfully shallow as Miami beach. My next privilege, and I cannot claim to understand it, is people just really like me.

I am taking steerage class airfare down from Detroit for 70 dollars (round trip) and I reserved a bed at a hostile in south beach that is 1-star rated. These accommodations are certain to expose me not only to bedbugs and the delta variant but also some real-world culture that normies will never see from there 3-starred Holiday Inn.

I will experience the lowest of the low and the highest of the high. I can assure you these are the two most exciting places to be.

Fuck the middle. The middle is a trap.

Anyhow, if you’re going to be in Miami for Art Basel and want to meet up, hit me up on Twitter @vinnumbrr.

Okay for now,

Raul Santos, November 21st 2021

And now the 365th edition of strategy session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/22/21 – 11/26/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.15, neutral*. Choppy sideways action, then look for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to put a bid into equities during the holiday-shortened week.

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday, November 25th in observation of Thanksgiving and Friday is a half-day.

*Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Some weakness early Monday. Then a week-long rally in the tech-heavy NASDAQ while the S&P sort of drifted and the other two indices were weak.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Leadership in the right places, but seeing Utilities bullish divergent suggests some risk aversion.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

The bullish skew from twelve weeks back was finally negated by last week’s industry flows. Strong sell flows last week.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Human intervention

Alright lads you know I don’t like to bet against my signals. Indexmodel is bearish heading into Thanksgiving week—a week that is statistically bullish. My trading will be light next week, but it certainly won’t be bearish bets.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy sideways action, then look for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to put a bid into equities during the holiday-shortened week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Discovery up across the board

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports still working on converting this old resistance into support. Unless they lose this level in a big way, this index remains discovery up.

See below:

Semiconductors caught a boost from Nvidia earnings last week adding more stretch to this discovery phase. Hard to participate at these levels but overall this sends a bullish signal to the overall market. Discovery up.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish this week.

It was extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bullish for four consecutive weeks before this after being bearish RCS for two consecutive weeks.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty eight weeks ago.

Rose Colored sunglasses calls for selling pressure throughout the week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Exodus 6-mont Hybrid Overbought

The 6-month hybrid algo triggered overbought Monday, November 1st. That is a bullish signal that runs through to Monday, November 15th end of day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

HYBRID-OB0-110120210-1

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Whoever embraces necessity count as wise, skilled in divine matters.” – Euripides

Trade simple, as necessary

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No trading report, instead some thoughts

The way the NASDAQ is drifting is real fine. Really fine indeed. But I see no urgency to trade it.

So let me offload something that has plagued me recently more than ever—folks rooting for my downfall.

They hate to see it. I am so freaking happy-go-lucky, and I don’t need a boss telling me what to do because I self motivate. I can work a room like Austin Powers, and I rival the beauty of America’s next top models.

While I mostly keep out of everyone’s way, and often even go out of my way to share insights I gain from hundred of hours of research and applied speculation, their are still lads who cannot stand me.

For one, I made a fortune betting on Elon Musk and for some reason that was immoral or unethical or idk just plum wrong. Then I really struck a nerve with all this NFT guff.

My main takeaway is acceptance. This is the role I was given in life and all I can do now is be the absolute best speculator and keep on being a bit of a goof. I refuse to be a serious sally. That isn’t who I am.

Okay for now. Trade’em well if you do.

Raul Santos, November 19th 2021

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NASDAQ erases afternoon selling overnight // here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday up a quick +80 after an overnight session featuring extreme range on normal volume. Price drifted higher overnight, drifting up beyond the Wednesday high. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out a bit worse than expected but alongside it was Philadelphia Fed data that was much stronger than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Thursday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down down range. After a brief open-test-down, buyers stepped in and resolved the overnight gap. Said buyers then continued higher, taking out the Tuesday high and by New York lunch they had effectively tagged the upper weekly ATR band. It was selling from there onward , with sellers making a hard move down through the daily midpoint and then holding the mid into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go, probing beyond all-time high 16,448.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 16,500.

Hypo 3 sellers reclaim Wednesday high 16,396.50 and then resolve the overnight gap down at 16,302.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Drifting into Tuesday // here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the top-side of Monday’s midpoint. At 8:30am retail sales data came out on the high end of expected range. As we approach cash open price is hovering just above the Monday midpoint.

Home Depot and Walmart reported earnings before the bell Tuesday, shares are +2% and -0.7% respectively in pre-market trade.

Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am followed by business inventories and housing market index at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up beyond Friday range. After an open auction outside range sellers stepped in adn drove down through the open gap, continuing down to the Friday midpoint. Sellers made two attempts to take the Friday mid and failed on the second, effectively reversing the auction. Buyers pressed up through the mid late in the day and we closed out the first day of the week rising off the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to close the gap up to 16,197 and tag 16,200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers trade down to 16,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 16,041.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Mopping the tile on this special anniversary

Greetings lads and good evening,

I am on a zoom call and my a.d.d is triggering so I am firing up the old blog machine to placate my need to work while these people do their talking and I sit here looking pretty on the video.

I’ve been the ah custodian here at iBankCoin for oh about 10 years now, yep. Sort of hanging out in the boiler room, turning dials and spinning knobs, not really keeping anything running, just lingering for alpha and cleaning up messes along the way.

iBankCoin is/was a web 2.0 platform and I was here for it. The ability to scribe my thoughts onto the ancient walls of the internet, and really leave my mark as an american wierd-o was an opportunity I could not miss. Now I am doing the same as we hatch this terrifying egg that is web 3.0.

The Fly has been good to me. Like he said, he’s mostly run freely, and I’ve done the same. I’ve seen some shit. Things I’m not proud of but also things that were formative. I am fairly certain ZeroPointNow was a Russian chaos agent sent to brainwash our echo chamber.

Like where is that fucker today?

We don’t know.

But anyhow this truly is a special corner of the internet, and I salute anyone who frequents these hallowed halls.

I like to think I’ve added value. One of my favorite pastimes when a trade is going against me is to clean. Mid-day today I mopped the floors while keeping an eye on the global financial complex via my 70-inch sammy. It looks like we caught a decent bounce this afternoon. Will it mark low of week?

Again, we don’t know. But at least the floors are Mr. Clean fresh.

The bounce looked okay. And I suppose that’s enough for now. Congrats to Le Fly. And congrats to everyone here. Cheers to tomorrow and cheers to another 14 years.

I want.to.die.here.

Cheers,

Raul

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