NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight, holding inside Monday’s range. Just after closing bell Monday, Google earnings erased much of the progress achieved by buyers late into Monday’s session. At the core of the selling reaction was the $2.7 billion dollar anti-trust fine levied against the tech giant by the European Union.
At 9am today the House Price Index came out slightly below expectations. Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The day began flat and buyers made a move up to the open gap from last Thursday (primary hypo). Sellers then stepped in and pushed the market range extension down. Then we traversed the entire daily range, pushing neutral, then to new all-time highs before ultimately falling back to the daily mid after Google. Neutral print.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up to 5937.50 then stall. We then take out overnight low 5920.75 setting up a move to target the naked VPOC at 5907.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, down through overnight low 5920.75 and work down to fill the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5842.75 and probe Monday’s high 5954.75 continuing higher to 5967.50 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Action was balanced overnight. Price briefly exceeded the high set on Friday.
On the economic calendar today we have Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI at 9:45am, Existing Home Sales at 10am, and 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.
Last week began strong with price action drifting higher through Wednesday before balancing out. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
Last Friday the NASDAQ formed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down and choppy opening hour which ultimately gave way to afternoon buying. Buyers were unable, however, to close the overnight gap by the end of the day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5922.75 and close the gap up at 5924.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5905 and work down to the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to new record highs, above 5935.50 and work up to 5953.50 before two way trade ensues.
For the the 141st consecutive Sunday, the research team at iBankCoin laboratory has parsed out and quantified all market generated information deemed relevant. As the models were being updated several stars began to align. There is a rhythm to data, and when we simply receive the raw inputs as humans without sullying them with our silly thumbs or emotions, occasionally a numeric ballet appears.
It is what many call an edge.
An edge has emerged Sunday. The edge can be an uncomfortable place. Like right now, making a bearish call heading into next week, you may think that would make the room feel a bit warmer. But with data on our side, and with full acceptance that markets are strong and we may end up being wrong, it is with conviction and poise that we stand by our forecast.
All signs point to Wednesday. Humped day has all sorts of quirks associated with it. We have simplified these ‘quirks’ as much as possible in the Exodus Strategy Session, so that someone less versed in quantitative voodoo can understand it.
Then there is the wonderful reading today from the IndexModel: 3.33
3 is the center of the universe. The first odd prime number, half of 6, multiplied by 33 to generate the only EMA that matters, 3 is everything. And nothing.
We have an FOMC rate decision out Wednesday. Traders over at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are pricing a 97.5% probability of no change to the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate. If the Fed is going to continue behaving as brilliantly as it has since Janet Yellen took over, very boring and predictable, then no change will happen Wednesday. What will happen, however, is a reaction to the announcement. This reaction is everything we need to carry or pivot our bias into the second half of the week.
In short, we are bearish heading into next week. How this plays out will make for interesting conversation on August 3rd when we meet in Detroit to discuss global domination. Have you submitted your RSVP for the free Detroit investors conference yet? You will not be granted access to our high society meeting unless you RSVP. The doors will be locked to keep the unsettled populace out. If your name does not clear over the intercom, I have instructed security to deploy a deterrent mist. Should that not effectively clear your person from the entryway, and at my command only, knee-level flamethrowers will be ignited.
If you do not feel like creating a MeetUp account to RSVP, you must make your intentions known so our administrative assistant can manually add you to the list.
Model is bearish therefore the kind scientists at iBankCoin laboratory are issuing a Rose Colored Sunglasses alert for the week beginning July the 24th.
Distinguished members of Exodus, the 141st Strategy Session is live. Check out what is going on with the mother algorithm that is directing our attention to Wednesday.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price slowly worked lower overnight, holding onto Thursday’s range.
There are no economic events today.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. A morning gap down was sold into, pressing briefly below the overnight low and into range extension down (hypo 3). Then a responsive bid stepped in and two way trade ensued.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5924.50. From there we continue higher, briefly poking above overnight high 5932.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers press down to 5895 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down to the open gap at 5833.25 before two way trade ensues.
The event is open to the public, but you need to RSVP otherwise you will not be allowed into the building. I will be talking my book to anyone who wants to listen. If you are curious about auction theory, we can talk auction theory. Want to know what parts of Detroit are quietly becoming artsy enclaves? We can talk real estate. If you want to talk about short-term trading and order flow, we can cover that too. This is an open forum.
There will be a few investors among the attendees who are regularly looking for start-ups to invest in. I am not going to tell you who they are, but if you have a real project with potential to make money, you may want to tighten up your elevator pitch and bring the idea with you.
Overall it seems like we are going to have some fun. There will be free beer and pizza. A working tap will dispense all the delicious municipal water you can drink. Detroit truly has the best drinking water in the world. There will also be boiling hot coffee to keep you sharp. If for whatever reason you desire a sugar-laden soda, it will be at your discretion to smuggle it in. The smoking of cannabis blunts will not be permitted at the conference.
Drop any questions you may have in the comments below, and I will address them despacito.
The Stocktwits Detroit investor MeetUp is being taken to the next level because it has to be done differently in Detroit. It has to be grimy and accessible to all. Like lets talk about picking through garbage and selling shit on Craigslist to fund a brokerage account. The moneys out there, do you have the huevos to go get it?
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher overnight in a slow manner. Initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed at 8:30am.
Also on the docket today we have Leading Indicators at 10am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up and after a small drive higher at the open we saw sellers unable to take out opening swing low. Instead price turned higher and worked up to the measured move target area at 5921 before settling into two-way trade.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5917.50. Look for sellers to take out overnight low 5914.75. Buyers are found down at 5904.75 and two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers work higher off the open, up through overnight high 5936.75 and continue exploring higher prices. Look for sellers around 5935.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5896.75 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price slowly worked higher overnight. At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out stronger than last week. At 8:30am the Building Permits number was a huge upside beat.
Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a hard sell. Where sellers quickly stalled out, and a sharp reversal occurred, tells a story of trapped short sellers. It was right at the 68% Fibonacci retracement of the June sell-off. Sellers failed to engage the market at this level last Friday—we pushed right through it. Then yesterday the zone was bid as sellers tried to cover their positions.
However, the speed of the reversal off of the 5823 levels speaks to trapped short sellers.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for continued pressure on the short seller. A push up through overnight high 5905 and a move through all-time highs. Look for sellers up at 5921 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5883.25 setting up a move down through overnight low 5881.75. Look for buyers down at 5868 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers push trade down to 5858.75 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked lower overnight and ultimately held inside the Monday range.
On the economic agenda today, we have NAHB Housing Market index at 10am, a 52-week and 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The week began with a gap up and small drive higher. Sellers sold into the move by late morning we spent the rest of the day slowly auctioning lower. Then, during settlement, strong earnings out of Netflix caused the NASDAQ to spike back up.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5855.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5862.50. Look for sellers up to 5872 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5832 and target the naked VPOC at 5817.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5805 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 5872 setting up a move to target 5894.
Listen, if you follow my snaps then you know I cavort about Detroit like some sort of wolf man. The city holds a special place in my heart because it is shunned by outsiders, much like yours truly. Investors are moving fast to try and participate in the city’s return to the gilded era. Where I once could peacefully enjoy brown bags filled with 40 ounces of malt liquor, a private security force now scoots me away. There is change in the air, and with change comes opportunity. After nearly two decades of making poor decisions downtown, I have gained an intimate understanding of the Motor City. That is why I am excited to announce I have been appointed to lead the StockTwits investor MeetUp group. Because this MeetUp group is about to change big time. Where once there was a MeetUp group there will now be a conference of hardcore investors and entrepreneurs. Like some real dirty-type hustle mentality is about to converge in the hood.
First off this event is free. All attendees can enjoy all the free beer, coffee, water, and pizza they can consume. And not just any fucking pizza. The best pizza in Detroit.
I did not have the grades for a proper university. My old man lived in third-world Italy until he was 12. I have no American legacy to lean on, so I’m creating a legacy to lean on.
I studied finance in college because I wanted to learn how to invest and trade. Only one professor in four very expensive years taught me anything about the game. So I took to the internet around 2006 to find real people in the industry.
The Great Recession came and went. Charlatans came and went. I lost money, lost more money, lost more money, then came a long stretch of banking gratuitous amounts of coin. I still take losses, but they are better losses.
I do it all live on the internet because I live in Detroit, and there are like 12 people to talk to about Wall Street with.
Internet friends are strange. We talk shit. Some are kind. Others are belligerent savages. We can learn from each other better in real life, and I agree with Anne Frank:
Despite everything, I believe that people are really good at heart. – Anne Frank
There are no strings attached to this event. Come hangout with other investors and traders. It’s that simple. We have been meeting up for a few years. Sometimes we met at Benzinga, other times at random restaurants in suburbia (not good). Now that I am head community organizer, the event will be held in a fresh space overlooking the city that I guarantee you will love.
Stay tuned for more details and a formal invitation to RSVP. For now pencil in a meeting for the evening of Thursday, August 3rd in Detroit.
Canadians, this is a perfect opportunity to come visit Detroit. If you want, we can all stack into my van like sardines and I’ll show you the most ultra-violent parts of town.
Writer’s note: It is with great humility and honor that I extend this invitation to you. The picture attached to this blog entry is me skating through Detroit like I own the place. I have no idea why they regularly hand me the keys to the city, but it seems a few dots have been connected, and I’m stoked to share everything I know about investing, trading, hustling, and more with you.
NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price had a little jaunt higher overnight, inching its way up the low-friction ascent towards prior swing highs but stalled. There was little interest to participate during globex.
The economic calendar is dead. Just a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Last week we rallied. The NASDAQ rallied all week long. It rallied harder after Wednesday. Until like Tuesday the Russell was selling. Then if formed a huge excess low, suggesting lot-o-demand was present. Then it rallied too. The US major indices rallied last week. Here is the performance of each major index last week:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up-and-out of Thursday’s range. Buyers rejected a move back down into Thursday prices and we instead spent the rest of the day rallying.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5837.75 setting up a move to target the open gap at 5796.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5858.75 and tag the high volume node at 5880 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 strong buyers trigger a rally up to 5821 before two way trade ensues.