Strong Labor Markets Reverse Early Index Gains

276 views

Stronger than expected Nonfarm Payroll data has markets on the move this morning. It was interesting to watch gold react ahead of the data and then a buy-sell-sell reaction from the Nasdaq. As we head into cash open price is pressing the low of the globex session and the low-end of our current value area.

Also on the calendar as we wrap up the first week of March is the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Heading into today, I am expecting a 2-way open auction to start the session. Then I will look for buyers to attempt a gap fill up to 4450. Like Tuesday and Wednesday, if they are unable to do so then I will look for sellers to step in and press the lows of this week’s range. If buyers cannot defend yesterday’s low 4432.75 then I will look for a move to target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 2 is buyers close the overnight gap to 4450 and sustain trade above it to set up a leg higher. If they can sustain above 4465.25 then look to target the gap up at 4478.75 and then swing high.

Hypo 3 is we stick around 4450 and close the week out flat.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03062015

DO YOU

299 views

Today the Nasdaq worked through my favorite day-type aka the neutral day. For some reason it didn’t have everyone as riled up as it usually does. Nevertheless, it provided some sweet intraday opportunities for mean revision play.

My day trading is at a stage of discretionary action with mechanical execution. Entries types are planned well in advance. I have 9 now, up from about 5 a few months back. Some are variations of what I have observed the greats do while others are complete brainchildren of my own.

Many times I have been told to create my own trading ideas. It would frustrate me because I simply wanted to be told, “do A + B to earn C”. Anything worth doing is not that simple. Or at the least, it’s only that simple for a short period of time before regulation, arbitrage, or some other force eliminates it.

I am finding my own trade ideas generate the biggest returns per trade. What a blessing!

Swing trading has been a slow earner for me this year but I have managed some good moves. My best performer on the year is another home brewed idea—Sprint. This was based on a giant panel of C-suite banksters nearly all saying to avoid telecoms in 2015. It also had the added essence of the falling wedge chart pattern both Option Addict and I adore.

The same chart pattern the afflicts me with GPRO!…but I digress.

What I am emphasizing on this cold winter afternoon it the importance of thinking for yourself. Embrace your ideas, test them, and reap reward from them. There are few joys better.

Methodical Action

220 views

The path of the Nasdaq this week has the look of a master at work. I think back to trading legends and how they make the bulk of their money at inflection points. Someone deep pocketed is making an earnest attempt to influence the market.

The month started with a strong Moday—something to corral the bulls and generate a sense of complacency. Then Tuesday they had to wake to a gap down then a knife lower kind of morning, then the seller backed off, created space.

Wednesday same thing, gap down then knife lower only to again back off, create space. Then today we gap up, push higher, pull back a touch, 1-tick the daily high then WHAM—a motivated move across the entire range puts us neutral. Price pulls back to the opening print then a smooth completion wave. Now we are in a corrective holding pattern waiting to see who blinks.

The net effect is little-to-no-change, but the coordinated, methodical efforts suggest a higher time frame at work here. There were also some concentrated strikes on the Nasdaq 100, where nearly 80% of the stocks confined within it down ticked simultaneously. This force or influence has algorithmic resources.

Watch how we trade in relation to the daily MID 4448.75 for an idea about who ultimately holds control on the session.

They Front Loaded March

255 views

We started the month of March up near swing high with market trading sideways in the short term. Price went gap up Monday and tested higher before finding responsive sellers, then tested lower yesterday and found responsive buyers. Heading into today, the Nasdaq is slightly positive on the month. Price managed to cut slightly higher than it did lower in the process, likely the case due to its alignment with the higher time frame trend.

Yesterday was a busy day economically and it showed. The Nasdaq was whipping around pretty good yesterday as it digested record builds in oil/gas inventory and the Fed Beige Book. This morning we had Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims out at 8:30am while a Mario Draghi press conference took place.

We also have Factory Orders at 10am and Natural Gas Storage stats at 10:30am. Also at 4:30pm the Fed will release the preliminary results of its 2015 Bank Stress Test.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory to target a gap fill down to 4445.50. If buyers can defend then I will look for a move toward overnight high 4458.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down below 4440 triggering an acceleration lower to take out yesterday’s low 4422 to target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 3 is buyers continue working up above 4458.75 to target the mCLVN at 4465.25 and work above Tuesday’s high 4472.50.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03052015

Working The Levels

136 views

Oil continues to throw down a methodical auction, moving from one reference point to the next. Heading into today, we are on the top end of the weekly range and bulls will have to muster some real strength to keep the commodity moving higher on the week.

Keeping prices above $51 is likely to bode well for the bull cause. Likewise, if sellers can pivot the market below $51 we likely see a quick reversion back to the MCVPOC at $49.13.

These levels are highlighted below:

QM_VPMP_03052015

EPIC REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

389 views

The Fed had my back this afternoon, and their Beige Book put a bid in oil prices, effectively generating broad confidence amongst risk takers. My book reversed a cool down three percent on the day to finish a mild thirty one basis points lower.

During the sit I suffered one casualty. BTE not only did not participate alongside the oil rally, it slipped. Losers will not be tolerated. It goes to show the mixed nature of this industry group.

GoPro exists simply to frustrate. We all know a flood of competition is chasing this first-to-market mover. But they’re tech and for some reason I keep a space in my heart for technological ideas born in the USA. Thus I bear the burns of this twisted trading instrument.

Apple seems to hold the keys to the market. The Nasdaq is grabbing headlines, Apple is a major piece of the Nasdaq, and Apple is coiled up tighter than the inside of a baseball. Watch how this one breaks to have an idea about where the market is headed.

Oil and Apple—everything else is just a distraction.

In other news, SINA might just have what it takes to put me through to the second round of iBankCoin’s March Madness tournament. It is time for the Far East to rise!

3 Things To Know Before The Beige Book

218 views

The Beige Book is due out at the top of the hour and markets are clearly waiting to see it. The consensus is The Fed sees signs of economic activity slowing down. Here are a few other important things to keep on your radar when the information hits the wires:

Bad weather – look for mention of harsh weather conditions leading to a slowdown in economic activity. See how this affects energy-related trades, especially crude oil.

Cheap oil – watch for a mention of Texans taking a hit on these low oil prices

Strong dollar, aka cheap oil – watch oil

Here are the key short term levels in oil:

QM_MP_03042015

THE GREAT THAW

199 views

My book of ice cubes is sitting on a salty sidewalk on a sunny day. Despite the hard bounce on the indices and despite my stocks only being down a few percentage points from entry, my call options are taking a fucking hammer to the dome.

The only logical presumption is that the numbers being relayed to me by the brokerage are fake—some kind of attempt to shake my bones up. BUT KNOW THIS, I have endured worse and kept my cool for the sake of objectivity.

There are some odd cross currents. The inventory build in oil was enormous which is quiet bearish, yet our first level of support held. The forsaken ones, BABA and GPRO are rallying.

You may think your homie Raul is putting a hurt on the Nasdaq this morning, what with the way its whipping around. I will have you know, I am not, I am merely watching. There were some early signs that I should back off right at the open and I obliged. I have much work to do before I can trade days like this with conviction.

This is day two of a weak morning, and day two of a strong rebound. We are coming into a seasonally strong period to close the week and the Beige Book is coming up today while the monthly NFP is on the horizon. I am quite long, and in sandwich mode until more information is made available.

Top picks: DE and GPRO **dodges incoming tomatoes**

WASHOUT

251 views

Range and volume picked up slightly compared to recent weeks but still is well within the confines of normal. Price spent most of the overnight session pushing lower but flattened out before taking out yesterday’s low.

Yesterday we opened gap down and buyers were unable to fill the gap. Instead sellers stepped in just beyond the VPOC 4470 and began pressing lower. They managed to take out Monday’ low and pressed below last Friday’s low before finding responsive buyers. Once found, buyers pushed back up abpve the mid to close the session down slightly.

This morning we head ADP employment change which came out a bit worse than expected and saw a muted reaction in the futures. Ahead on the docket is Fed Evans talking economics at 9am, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10am, Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am, and most important Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory early on and press for a gap fill up to 4457.50. From there I will look for yesterday’s sellers to become initiative and work lower through yesterday’s session low 4432.50 to take out the weak/double low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 2 is buyers hold yesterday’s low and work higher to close the Monday/Tuesday gap to 4478.75.

Hypo 3 is a drive down off the open, take out weak/double low 4429.25 early and press down through the LVN at 4413.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03042015

 

Oil Bulls Trying To Make a Run

174 views

After seven attempts lower from the highly trafficked VPOC, the market is now for a third day drifting up and away from the scene.

The $51 level has been the scene of responsive buying twice in recent history. Early on my primary expectation is for buyers to probe above the recent high and target $51.545. Otherwise a second scenario would be sellers whacking prices lower to start the return to MCVPOC $49.10.

Here’s a picture of the intermediate term traffic jam:

QM_VP_03042015

Strong Labor Markets Reverse Early Index Gains

276 views

Stronger than expected Nonfarm Payroll data has markets on the move this morning. It was interesting to watch gold react ahead of the data and then a buy-sell-sell reaction from the Nasdaq. As we head into cash open price is pressing the low of the globex session and the low-end of our current value area.

Also on the calendar as we wrap up the first week of March is the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Heading into today, I am expecting a 2-way open auction to start the session. Then I will look for buyers to attempt a gap fill up to 4450. Like Tuesday and Wednesday, if they are unable to do so then I will look for sellers to step in and press the lows of this week’s range. If buyers cannot defend yesterday’s low 4432.75 then I will look for a move to target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 2 is buyers close the overnight gap to 4450 and sustain trade above it to set up a leg higher. If they can sustain above 4465.25 then look to target the gap up at 4478.75 and then swing high.

Hypo 3 is we stick around 4450 and close the week out flat.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03062015

DO YOU

299 views

Today the Nasdaq worked through my favorite day-type aka the neutral day. For some reason it didn’t have everyone as riled up as it usually does. Nevertheless, it provided some sweet intraday opportunities for mean revision play.

My day trading is at a stage of discretionary action with mechanical execution. Entries types are planned well in advance. I have 9 now, up from about 5 a few months back. Some are variations of what I have observed the greats do while others are complete brainchildren of my own.

Many times I have been told to create my own trading ideas. It would frustrate me because I simply wanted to be told, “do A + B to earn C”. Anything worth doing is not that simple. Or at the least, it’s only that simple for a short period of time before regulation, arbitrage, or some other force eliminates it.

I am finding my own trade ideas generate the biggest returns per trade. What a blessing!

Swing trading has been a slow earner for me this year but I have managed some good moves. My best performer on the year is another home brewed idea—Sprint. This was based on a giant panel of C-suite banksters nearly all saying to avoid telecoms in 2015. It also had the added essence of the falling wedge chart pattern both Option Addict and I adore.

The same chart pattern the afflicts me with GPRO!…but I digress.

What I am emphasizing on this cold winter afternoon it the importance of thinking for yourself. Embrace your ideas, test them, and reap reward from them. There are few joys better.

Methodical Action

220 views

The path of the Nasdaq this week has the look of a master at work. I think back to trading legends and how they make the bulk of their money at inflection points. Someone deep pocketed is making an earnest attempt to influence the market.

The month started with a strong Moday—something to corral the bulls and generate a sense of complacency. Then Tuesday they had to wake to a gap down then a knife lower kind of morning, then the seller backed off, created space.

Wednesday same thing, gap down then knife lower only to again back off, create space. Then today we gap up, push higher, pull back a touch, 1-tick the daily high then WHAM—a motivated move across the entire range puts us neutral. Price pulls back to the opening print then a smooth completion wave. Now we are in a corrective holding pattern waiting to see who blinks.

The net effect is little-to-no-change, but the coordinated, methodical efforts suggest a higher time frame at work here. There were also some concentrated strikes on the Nasdaq 100, where nearly 80% of the stocks confined within it down ticked simultaneously. This force or influence has algorithmic resources.

Watch how we trade in relation to the daily MID 4448.75 for an idea about who ultimately holds control on the session.

They Front Loaded March

255 views

We started the month of March up near swing high with market trading sideways in the short term. Price went gap up Monday and tested higher before finding responsive sellers, then tested lower yesterday and found responsive buyers. Heading into today, the Nasdaq is slightly positive on the month. Price managed to cut slightly higher than it did lower in the process, likely the case due to its alignment with the higher time frame trend.

Yesterday was a busy day economically and it showed. The Nasdaq was whipping around pretty good yesterday as it digested record builds in oil/gas inventory and the Fed Beige Book. This morning we had Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims out at 8:30am while a Mario Draghi press conference took place.

We also have Factory Orders at 10am and Natural Gas Storage stats at 10:30am. Also at 4:30pm the Fed will release the preliminary results of its 2015 Bank Stress Test.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory to target a gap fill down to 4445.50. If buyers can defend then I will look for a move toward overnight high 4458.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down below 4440 triggering an acceleration lower to take out yesterday’s low 4422 to target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 3 is buyers continue working up above 4458.75 to target the mCLVN at 4465.25 and work above Tuesday’s high 4472.50.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03052015

Working The Levels

136 views

Oil continues to throw down a methodical auction, moving from one reference point to the next. Heading into today, we are on the top end of the weekly range and bulls will have to muster some real strength to keep the commodity moving higher on the week.

Keeping prices above $51 is likely to bode well for the bull cause. Likewise, if sellers can pivot the market below $51 we likely see a quick reversion back to the MCVPOC at $49.13.

These levels are highlighted below:

QM_VPMP_03052015

EPIC REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

389 views

The Fed had my back this afternoon, and their Beige Book put a bid in oil prices, effectively generating broad confidence amongst risk takers. My book reversed a cool down three percent on the day to finish a mild thirty one basis points lower.

During the sit I suffered one casualty. BTE not only did not participate alongside the oil rally, it slipped. Losers will not be tolerated. It goes to show the mixed nature of this industry group.

GoPro exists simply to frustrate. We all know a flood of competition is chasing this first-to-market mover. But they’re tech and for some reason I keep a space in my heart for technological ideas born in the USA. Thus I bear the burns of this twisted trading instrument.

Apple seems to hold the keys to the market. The Nasdaq is grabbing headlines, Apple is a major piece of the Nasdaq, and Apple is coiled up tighter than the inside of a baseball. Watch how this one breaks to have an idea about where the market is headed.

Oil and Apple—everything else is just a distraction.

In other news, SINA might just have what it takes to put me through to the second round of iBankCoin’s March Madness tournament. It is time for the Far East to rise!

3 Things To Know Before The Beige Book

218 views

The Beige Book is due out at the top of the hour and markets are clearly waiting to see it. The consensus is The Fed sees signs of economic activity slowing down. Here are a few other important things to keep on your radar when the information hits the wires:

Bad weather – look for mention of harsh weather conditions leading to a slowdown in economic activity. See how this affects energy-related trades, especially crude oil.

Cheap oil – watch for a mention of Texans taking a hit on these low oil prices

Strong dollar, aka cheap oil – watch oil

Here are the key short term levels in oil:

QM_MP_03042015

THE GREAT THAW

199 views

My book of ice cubes is sitting on a salty sidewalk on a sunny day. Despite the hard bounce on the indices and despite my stocks only being down a few percentage points from entry, my call options are taking a fucking hammer to the dome.

The only logical presumption is that the numbers being relayed to me by the brokerage are fake—some kind of attempt to shake my bones up. BUT KNOW THIS, I have endured worse and kept my cool for the sake of objectivity.

There are some odd cross currents. The inventory build in oil was enormous which is quiet bearish, yet our first level of support held. The forsaken ones, BABA and GPRO are rallying.

You may think your homie Raul is putting a hurt on the Nasdaq this morning, what with the way its whipping around. I will have you know, I am not, I am merely watching. There were some early signs that I should back off right at the open and I obliged. I have much work to do before I can trade days like this with conviction.

This is day two of a weak morning, and day two of a strong rebound. We are coming into a seasonally strong period to close the week and the Beige Book is coming up today while the monthly NFP is on the horizon. I am quite long, and in sandwich mode until more information is made available.

Top picks: DE and GPRO **dodges incoming tomatoes**

WASHOUT

251 views

Range and volume picked up slightly compared to recent weeks but still is well within the confines of normal. Price spent most of the overnight session pushing lower but flattened out before taking out yesterday’s low.

Yesterday we opened gap down and buyers were unable to fill the gap. Instead sellers stepped in just beyond the VPOC 4470 and began pressing lower. They managed to take out Monday’ low and pressed below last Friday’s low before finding responsive buyers. Once found, buyers pushed back up abpve the mid to close the session down slightly.

This morning we head ADP employment change which came out a bit worse than expected and saw a muted reaction in the futures. Ahead on the docket is Fed Evans talking economics at 9am, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10am, Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am, and most important Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory early on and press for a gap fill up to 4457.50. From there I will look for yesterday’s sellers to become initiative and work lower through yesterday’s session low 4432.50 to take out the weak/double low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 2 is buyers hold yesterday’s low and work higher to close the Monday/Tuesday gap to 4478.75.

Hypo 3 is a drive down off the open, take out weak/double low 4429.25 early and press down through the LVN at 4413.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03042015

 

Oil Bulls Trying To Make a Run

174 views

After seven attempts lower from the highly trafficked VPOC, the market is now for a third day drifting up and away from the scene.

The $51 level has been the scene of responsive buying twice in recent history. Early on my primary expectation is for buyers to probe above the recent high and target $51.545. Otherwise a second scenario would be sellers whacking prices lower to start the return to MCVPOC $49.10.

Here’s a picture of the intermediate term traffic jam:

QM_VP_03042015