iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,698 Blog Posts

Dialing back into the markets

Good morning, I hope this message is receiving you in good health and safety.

Part of me is a provocateur of chaos. It is a wild streak that runs through me and as I become older and accumulate more greys in my mustache and beard I’ve developed healthier outlets for these energies.

I dig. I dig and dig and dig like some OCD psycho. I clean the same way. I’ll pull out the stove and vacuum up any old bits of food that have fallen into this mysterious cavern in my kitchen.

What my wild streak really wants to do is help these youths properly riot. Detroit filed one of the most peaceful protests in the country last night. No looting of any kind occurred. Which is a good thing. I am not here to advocate for crime, nor do I think it helps progress the important systematic problems faced by our black community. But these protestors all gathered in the wrong area to do any damage. Down on Jefferson where most every building was designed in the shadow of the 1967 riot. They are cement and windowless. You cannot cause much havoc here. Mayhem must occur up town a bit, where Brooklyn hipsters have carved out little store fronts selling 900 dollar watches and whatnot. These facades can be shattered, looted, lit on fire and so on.

As for overturning cars, a good lever bar will go a long way. Some Archimedean basics can immensely improve you ability to flip cars and bust up cement. Yes, a concrete saw is nice and can split a Buick clean in half, but these conditions call for run-and-gun style mischief and improvised tools.

Again, I do not condone this behavior but a wild streak exits in me that loves chaos. It is not something to be proud of. Thinking about it too much makes me sad. So I garden instead. A garden can be a protest in itself. We can resist the system by growing our own, nutrient dense food instead of buying all that poison at the store. We can live longer, organize, overthrow the patriarch via democracy. We can lean on the justice system to be better. We can boycott places out of business.

On Friday I could not trade I was far too disturbed. The nice thing about my approach to trading is that it does not require me to plot my extremely well developed butt down in front of the computer and stare at charts all day, every day. I go to cash by lunch most days, then I sashay around the yard making my playground more hedonistic and private. Then I made delicious food and take naps. I don’t have steel nerves all day, every day. I can trade well, quite well in fact, for about 2-4 hours a day. If I am maintaining my sleep and excercice and don’t have too many open projects, I can do this five days a week. Right now, it seems I can muster up the mental energy to trade one or two days a week.

Maybe this will change soon. Any long time reader of this here humble Raul blog (hRb) knows that June is MY MONTH. It always has been. It always will be. I look really good in a bathing suit. Like my skin is just slightly olive from having an Italian immigrant for a father, but I am tall and muscle-y because he married a big strong American girl. My mom could pry a cows mouth open and pull its tongue out. Anyways, I also have the perfect amount of body hair. Enough to cover my upper chest and belly a bit, but not so much that my forearm muscles are swamped out by a curly tangled mess. I also am a vegetarian so I don’t carry any unnecessary mass. All of my body is here for a purpose, to work and resist this sick society I find myself surrounded by. June is about being naked and that is part of why it is my month. I look really, really, extremely good naked.

Also June is a big month for gardening up here in the murder mitten, and I happen to be one of the most advanced garden designers in the country.

June is also my birth month.

You cannot beat me in June I guess is what I am trying to convey.

So when May ends so cleanly, on a Sunday, and June kicks of on a Monday, you have to imagine I am a bit excited. I am ready to work. Models are bullish until at least the end of Tuesday. From then onward, we improvise.

I just completed the Sunday research. The NASDAQ Transportation Index is telling a story. I am ready to turn off the news flow and focus back on cold, dead data.

Back to work.

Cheers,

Raul Santos, May 31st, 2020

Exodus members, the 288th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check out that NASDAQ transportation index chart, and to a lesser extent the PHLX chart. Let me know if you have any questions.

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NASDAQ real choppy, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday down a quick -100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced for much of the overnight session after a brief move up beyond the Wednesday high. Many hours were spent compressing near 9400. Then around 8am New York sellers broke the compression to the downside. As we approach cash open, price is trading up above yesterday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence and new home sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down and after a brief open two-way auction sellers stepped in and drove price lower, trading down into the gap left behind between 05/15-05/18 (weekend gap). Before sellers could probe the entire gap a strong responsive buy pushed into the market. Said buyers reversed all morning selling before becoming initiative. The buying continued into closing bell, with price eventually closing up near Tuesday’s midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 9435.50. From here we continue higher, through overnight high 9481.75. Look for seller sup at 9496.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers hold below 9380 early on setting up a leg lower down through overnight low 9320.50. Sellers tag 9300 then look for buyers down at 9291.50.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 9263 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Day after trend down, sellers on the push, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, spending much of the Globex session working higher then balancing along Tuesday’s midpoint. Then around 6am New York sellers stepped in and reversed the evening gains. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, 5-year note auction at 1pm and the Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up to a new cash swing high. The actual swing high was set around 3am though, during globex. The market continues attempting to mark swing high outside of cash hours which statistically is uncommon. From the open we had a selling drive lower, working back down near last Friday’s range before finding a responsive bid. Said buyers nearly worked back to the daily midpoint before a second wave of selling came in. We ended the day near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 9375, setting up a move to tag 9343.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher, trading up to 9450.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up through overnight high 9508 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to 9523.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measures moves:

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Fire away

I needed to file my research before the day became any nicer. Otherwise I might start tearing the paint off of the office walls, and it is a lovely shade of blue. That would be a shame.

A gun fight broke out just in front of my good friend’s urban development last night. Bunch’a’loons in Hellcat street racers shooting at each other from the car windows. The heat is coming, the wild grass and dandelions are growing tall and the histamines are swelling people’s brains, causing a fever-like mania of erratic behavior. If only people took their allergy pills or maybe a toot of Flonase in each barrel, maybe we’d get along better.

Or better yet eliminate all this heckin’ grass everywhere. Grass. So useless unless you need it for sports drills or livestock. I am sofa king allergic to grass.

Anyhow the research is done and I need to go outside. The back yard is setting up pretty epic this season, and with just a bit more love Mothership could rival installations by the queen Martha Stewart.

King tut peas, Japanese purple corn with pink ribbon leaves, cucumbits, titan sunflowers known to grow 15-feet high, poppy blooms from orange to bloody pink. Russian sage. The waterfall, oh the waterfall.

This is my World Series. Nobody does garden design like Humble Raul. Y’all think I just slay NASDAQ futures for two hours then spend the rest of the day jackin’ off? With both hands? No sir, I work. Idle hands are trouble they just want to beat it and smoke drugs.

My hedonistic energies must be channeled or everyone will suffer. This wolf is best behaved when fully depleted physically and mentally by night fall. Otherwise the local towns folk are at risk.

Models are bullish, on all accords. Fire away. These may be the final days of this wonderful v-shaped bounce. What could go wrong pressing longs into month end?

Raul Santos, May 24th 2020

Exodus members, the 287th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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Edit—Undo: NASDAQ reverses late Tuesday selling, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up +100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, steadily campaigning its way back up into the Tuesday range and back up near the highs. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Tuesday high aka swing high.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 20-year bond auction at 1pm and the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap up and after a brief open two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove to new swing highs. Said buyers stalled out ahead of the swing high by a few ticks, leaving behind a weak high before sellers careened price down through the day’s range, eventually pushing neutral near 4pm New York and closing price down on the lows.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through swing high 9417.25 on their way to tagging 9437.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up and fill the 02/21 gap up at 9459.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9298.75. Look for buyers down at 9258.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ with the modest +10 up gap into Tuesday, Walmart strong, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price popped higher overnight, making a new swing high before sellers knocked the price back down into balance. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range.

Walmart reported earnings this morning that bested expectations, shares are higher by +3% in pre-market trade.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chair J.Powell set to speak to the Senate at 10am. At the same time e-commerce retails sales data is due out. at 11am we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions, and at 11:30am a 52-week bill auction.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap up and after a brief open two-way trade buyers drove higher, nearly but not quite making a new swing high before flagging for several hours. In the afternoon the new swing high was finally made. We were choppy from then-on, eventually closing off the highs by a bit.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tradign up through 9369.25 and sustaining trade above it to set up a run up through overnight high 8417.25. Look for sellers up at 9435.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers fill the 02/21 open gap up at 9459.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers sustain trade below 9369.25 then work down through overnight low 9291. look for buyers down at 9258.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a cool +170 into Monday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher for the majority of the Globex session, trading up through last Friday’s high early Sunday evening and steadily campaigning higher for the duration of the session. As we approach cash open, price is hovering up inside of last Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have Housing Market Index at 10am followed by both 3- and 6-motn T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week kicked off with a gap down and Monday rally. Tuesday featured a choppy balance early on before sellers stepped in and drove lower. Selling continued through Wednesday morning until a choppy balance took hold well above the prior week’s lows. From then onward price rallied, recapturing about half the week’s losses. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range. Buyers drove into the open but could not close the overnight gap on their first attempt. Instead price reversed the early open drive. Sellers could not however take out the daily low. Instead buyers renewed their campaign higher and by about 1:15pm the overnight gap was filled. The rest of the day was spent chopping higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up 9320.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up through recent swing high 9345.50 setting up a run to 9400.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 9188 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Back bullish again

Any caution expressed last week has been thoroughly rinsed off after updating my research early this morning. I am back to being bullish and need to put my money back to work asap.

A couple things happened last week at the House of Raul. I bit off more than I prefer to chew, labor-wise, and as a result I was worked into a lather and for no damn great reason except a few thousand fiat american dollars. It set me back on my own work and was distracting and by golly I worked clean into Sunday night finishing tasks I accepted, tasks for other people’s benefit.

Fine.

The other thing that happened was I was so heckin’ busy I didn’t even have the mental endurance to cue up Exodus for five minute in the evening and see what the algos are up to.

Error. Not fine.

Any performance going forward from this will inevitably be worse. It is just the nature of things. I accept this.

One thing I’ve learned in my eight years freed from the shackles of W2 corporate servitude is that if I do not do something it will not be done. It is my conviction that many an adult american don’t have the huevos to live like this—they prefer to have some insurmountable authority that they can pile their angst onto, should something not go right. It’s a low friction way to bullshit yourself into complacency.

If I did not wake up two hours earlier than I normally prefer to on this critical Monday, then the research I need in order to trade would not be done, ergo I could not trade this week.

Again, this is not fine. Opportunity is running high.

So that’s it. Models are updated an bullish on all fronts. I have to allocate some of my long-term capital that was shuffled into cash last Monday as well as position my swing account long. I am a bit late to the rally. Such is life when you’re distracted. Nobody here is out to do any favors.

Watch for Walmart earnings out Tuesday to give a pure proxy on the U.S. economy. All those employment and GDP data coming out of the government are useless. Walmart is America. Walmart will tell the story.

Back to work.

I will be back around 9am with a morning NASDAQ trading report.

Raul Santos, May 18th 2020

Exodus members, the 286th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.

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NASDAQ heading into Wednesday coasting on fumes, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight  after taking out Tuesday’s low briefly. We held a balance along the lows until about 5:45am when it began exploring higher prices. At 9am Fed Chairman Powell is set to speak. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed normal variation down, but with a trend down in the final hour of trade. The day began with a gap up and after a brief probe a few ticks above the prior swing high the overnight gap was resolved. We then spend several hours chopping above the daily midpoint, then a few more hours in a tight chop below the daily mid, then the selling came in during the last hour. We ended the day down inside of last Thursday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 9169.50. Look for sellers up at 9200 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9076.75. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 8997.50. Look for buyers down at 8952 open gap and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8900 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Long in tooth: NASDAQ comes into Monday gap down here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price popped higher Sunday evening, briefly making a new swing high and holding the gains until about 4:20am. From then onward we’ve been rotating lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Friday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week buyers took control of the tape. We spent al week auctioning higher across all major indices, with the NASDAQ and Russell leading the way. The last week performance of each index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up and after a brief two way open auction buyer stepped in and made new swing high. Buying continued through New York lunch hour before sellers stepped in around 1:15pm and send price back down to the daily midpoint. Then, by end of day buyers had rotated us back up to the highs and we ended the day there.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 9219.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take out overnight high 9285 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 9100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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