*Note: this morning’s trading report references the December ’18 NAS100 futures contract (NQZ18).  I will be trading the December contract despite most action ‘rolling forward’ to the March ’19 contract.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight starting around 8pm and continued lower until two-ticking the Tuesday cash low.  After that a responsive bid stepped in and we came into balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near the overnight low, inside the lower quadrant of Tuesady’s range.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out above expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Manufacturing Production at 9:15am, Manufacturing/Service PMI at 9:45am, and Business Inventories at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and two way auction.  Buyers attempted higher early on but stalled out before they could take out the Wednesday high.  Responsive sellers worked the overnight gap fill before we spent the rest of the session chopping inside of Wednesday’s range, forming a weak low along the way.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt to reclaim Thursday’s low 6749.25.  Sellers reject a move back into Thursday low, setting up a move to take out overnight low 6650.75.  Look for buyers down at 6606 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 6650.75 early on and tagging 6600.  Trade is sustained below 6600 setting up a move to target the open gap down at 6530.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 6748.75 then continue higher through overnight high 6760.75.  Look for sellers  up at 6800 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday 100 points higher after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, erasing all of the downward progress sellers made intraday Tuesday, selling progress that came after we opened nearly 100 points higher yesterday.  As we approach cash open price has probed beyond the Tuesday high and is hovering beyond it.  At 8:30am consumer price index data came out in-line to slightly-better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 10-year note auction at 1pm, and a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up to near the high from last Friday’s trend down.  After a fierce battle between buyers and sellers at the open, sellers stepped in and began working price lower.  The steadily worked lower, eventually closing the 100 point gap and briefly probing below overnight low before two way trade ensued.  The day ended more-or-less flat after and afternoon responsive bid took price back to the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 6768.50.  Initiative buyers step in here (initiative relative to Tuesday’s close, responsive relative to today’s open) and we work up through overnight high 6824.25 setting up a move to target 6882.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up to 6900 and sustaining trade above the century mark, setting up a move to target the composite VPOC at 6950.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 6715.75 setting up a move down through overnight low 6671.75.  Look for buyers down at 6700 otherwise stretch side target to downside is 6600.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced in the upper quadrant of Monday’s cash range for much of the session before a 100-point unidirectional wave higher pressed prices higher around 5am.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near globex high, which is near last Friday’s opening print.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.  There are no other events.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a slight gap down after a 30 point gap up was erased just before opening bell.  Price spiked higher early on but was met with equal selling force just beyond overnight high.  Sellers then began campaigning lower, taking price down through Friday’s low.  However, an excess low formed before we could resolve the open gap down at 6530.50 and from then onward we began to campaign higher, steadily, pushing neutral by mid-afternoon, and closing at session high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade us down to 6722.  Buyers reject an attempt back into Monday’s high 6714.50 and we work higher, eventually taking out overnight high 6808.75.  Look for sellers up at 6832.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 6850 to set up a move to target 6882.25.  Stretch targets are 6900 then the composite VPOC at 6950.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 6699 then continue lower, down through overnight low 6655, setting up a move to target 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, taking out Friday’s low and trading down into the 11/22 range before rallying 120 points.  As we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Friday’s trend down.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am, followed by a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week was unique.  It began with a pro gap up then chop.  Tuesday began with a small gap down that buyers were unable to fill.  This resulted in a trend down Tuesday.  Wednesday the markets were closed in observation of President G.H.W. Bush’s death.  Thursday markets re-open with a pro gap down that is bought up through most of the day.  Friday said buying is erased as another round of selling/liquidation blows through, closing out on low-of-week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down.  The day began with a slight gap down that buyers resolved before the selling resumed.  Selling then lasted all day, trending lower right up until closing bell, talking us into the weekend on weekly lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6620.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6554 to tag the open gap down at 6530.50. Look for buyers down at 6526.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers continue the liquidation and we trade down to 6454.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers step in ahead of 6600 setting up a move to take out overnight high 6660.  Look for sellers up at 6709 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly probing up beyond Thursday high.  Selling overnight was contained to the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near Thursday’s high.  At 8:30am non-farm payroll data came out worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have University of Michigan’s primary December reading of sentiment at 10am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a pro gap down after the Wednesday market holiday and the Tuesday trend down.  The first hour of trade was choppy and formed a wide initial balance.  We very briefly broke the IB to the downside just before New York lunch, right as the European markets were closing, and instantly discovered a strong responsive bid.  This was a failed auction to the downside and it led to a strong rally that traversed the entire daily range to go neutral before continuing higher to close the overnight gap.  We ended near session high.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6826.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6856.50 setting up a move to target 6900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 6764.50 setting up a move to target 6700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, initially spiking about 200 points lower at the open of globex at 6pm, before recovering 100 of the points within five minutes.  After chopping sideways for many hours, the futures began working lower again around 10pm.  As we approach cash open prices are hovering near the globex lows, at levels unseen since last Tuesday. At 8:15 ADP employment data came out below expectations.  At 8:30am trade balance data came out below expectations.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic agenda today we have ISM non-manufacturing/service composite at 10am, factory/durable goods orders at 10am, crude oil inventories at 11am, and both a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Traders also need to keep an eye on the mounting tensions between China and USA as trade wars and tariff commentary continue to affect NASDAQ prices.

Yesterday the NASDAQ was closed in observation of President George H.W. Bush’s death.  On Tuesday the NASDAQ printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down and tight open auction/chop.  Sellers pressed down through the low, which aligned with the Monday low.  This triggered a quick liquidation that erased the gap up we had to begin the week.  Sellers continued lower, trading down into last Wednesday’s conviction buying.  We ended the session at the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  The higher timeframe will be active as we are way out of balance.  Look for a gap-and-go lower.  Look for sellers to trade down through overnight low 6630.25 setting up a move to target 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to close the gap at 6530.50.  Look for buyers down at 6526.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and trade up through overnight high 6842 setting up a move to target 6882.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, taking out the Monday cash low before discovering a responsive bid about 15 points ahead of the Friday gap left behind over the weekend on Trade Wars updates over the weekend.  As we approach cash open price is hovering inside Monday’s lower quadrant.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 1pm. Reminder: the stock market is closed tomorrow in observation of President George H.W. Bush’s death.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a pro gap up and open two-way auction.  The chop eventually led to a range extension lower. Responsive buyers (responsive relative to Monday open, initiative relative to Friday close) prevented price from probing very far into the weekend gap, and we ended the day back up at session midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7059.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7068.  Look for sellers up at 7077.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7114 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower trading down through overnight low 6980.25 setting up a weekend gap fill down to 6965.75.  Look for buyers at the composite VPOC 66950 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price shot higher on presumed progress in the tariff discussions, or trade wars between China and the US.  As we approach cash open price is trading at price levels unseen since November 9th.

On the economic calendar today we have construction spending at 10am, ISM manufacturing/employment at 10am, and a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.  Reminder, US markets will be closed Wednesday December 5th in observation of the death of George H.W. Bush, 41st President of the United States.

Last week began with a gap up and buyers asserting price higher.  Price continued to work higher all week long, even trending higher Wednesday.  The week ended near high-of-week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down and sellers attempting lower.  Responsive buyers stepped in just below Thursday’s midpoint and shortly after 10:30am we were range extension up.  Price then chopped along the daily midpoint for much of the session before rallying to a new weekly high in the afternoon, pressing up through the composite high volume node at 6950.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  We are coming into the first trading day in December way out of balance and there is an uncommon, nearly unplanned market holiday mid-week.  Look for the higher time frame to be engaging the market early on. Eventually look for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7040.  Look for buyers down at 7023.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7139, setting up a move to target 7150 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 6965.75.  Expect some chop at the composite VPOC 6950, then look for buyers down at 6922.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price was balanced overnight, trading inside of the Thursday range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Thursday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have Chicago purchasing manager at 9:45am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap down and two-way auction.  Sellers pressed us range extension down, however the LVN observed as part of yesterday’s hypo 2 was defended by responsive buyers.  Said buyers eventually worked a full gap fill and briefly pressed us RE up, into a neutral print, before we drifted back to the mid by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, taking out overnight high 6917.50 setting up a move to test beyond the Thursday high 6943.75.  Look for sellers at the composite VPOC 6950 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7000.  Look for sellers up at 7022.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 6871.50 and continue lower, down through Thursday low 6843 setting up a move to target 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price poked 4 points above the Wednesday cash high before coming into balance in the upper quad of Wednesday’s trend day.  As we approach cash open price is hovering below 6900 in the middle of a microbalance.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, 3-, 6-, and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11am, Fed speak from two members at 2pm alongside the 2pm Fed release of minutes from their last meeting, and Fed balance sheet at 4:30p.

Yesterday we printed a trend day.  The day began with a gap up out of range and slight drift lower.  Buyers rejected an attempt to trade back into the Tuesday range and as we went into the Jerome Powell talk at 11am price was compressed into a coil.  Something the Fed chairman said shot prices higher which set off a trend up to the huge microcomposite value area low at 6800.  Price soon traveled beyond 6800 and sustained trade inside the big value, setting up a move to traverse the entire value and tag the top around 6900.  We closed pretty much at session high.

Trend day.

The only caveat is value never shifted higher from where it was set during the morning coil.  The daily VPOC still resides down at 6735.50.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6923.50.  From here we continue higher, up to the composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 6866 and sustain trade below LVN at 6860.50 setting up a move down to 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers erase the entire Powell rally, trade us back down to the ‘scene of the crime’ at 6750.  We tag the Wedneday NVPOC at 6735.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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