NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower quickly, then slowly at times, and for the most part in an orderly manner.

There are some economic events to be aware of.  Case-shiller house price index at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Also, the overnight move was news driven, an impulse reaction to reports of North Korea firing an intercontinental ballistic missile over Japan.  Our expectation with any news driven market reaction is a return to ‘the scene of the crime’ at some point.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a big gap up and sellers quickly worked it closed.  Then, after closing the gaps a responsive bid stepped in and we rallied a bit, keeping the action inside of Friday’s range before the ensuing two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go liquidation.  Look for a move down to 5755.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to the open gap at 5720.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5845 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price was lower Sunday evening and briefly probed below the Thursday low before finding a strong responsive bid and working back up into the high-value zone established last week.  At8:30am advance goods trade balance data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4 separate Treasury auctions.  At 11:30am we have both a 6-month bill and 2-year note auction.  Then at 1pm we have a 3-month bill and 5-year note auction.

Last week began with a sharp move lower Monday that discovered a responsive bid.  Tuesday was trend up and we spent the rest of the week trading inside the Tuesday range.  All the while, the Russell quietly diverged higher.  The performance from last week of each major index is listed below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  After sellers could not close the early gap up we had a morning rally.  It fizzled out ahead of Thursday’s high and we reversed before New York lunch and rent range extension down.  Then we spent the rest of the day flagging near the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5825.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5801.25 and close the gap don at 5795 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go higher, working towards the open gap at 5878.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers form a rally, all the way up to the open gap at 5924.25 before two-way trade ensues.

If hypo 3 plays out, it would negate the bunker buster signal we have from Sunday’s Exodus strategy session.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and elevated volume.  Price began working higher early this morning, and ultimately we held inside of the Thursday range.  At 8:30am Durable Goods orders came out below expectations.

The only other economic event scheduled today is the keynote speech from Fed leader Janet Yellen—a decree she will issue from high atop the mountains of Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up-and-above the Wednesday range.  Sellers drove lower off the open then extended their progress ahead of New York lunch.  Then they backed off, and in their wake came a responsive bid, slow and steady, that worked price back to the daily mid-point to end the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze.  Sellers had several chances this week to make a move and did not, therefore look for price to take out overnight high 5867.75 and close the open Tuesday gap at 5878.75.  From here we continue higher, up to 5900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers carry us to 5925 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5841.  They continue lower, down through overnight low 5832.  Look for buyers down at 5790.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked both down below and up above the Wednesday range overnight, and as we head into the open price is holding onto the gains.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic agenda today we have existing home sales at 10am and a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down to about the mid-point of Tuesday’s trend day.  A tight, two-way auction eventually broke to the upside but lacked much dynamic follow-through.  Overall the session was balanced.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5847.25.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5829.  Look for buyers down at 5790.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go higher, close the Tuesday gap up at 5878.75 then continue higher to 5893.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade around 5900, setting up a rally up to 5924.25 and negating the bunker buster entirely.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Tuesday’s high mark for several hours before retracing back to about the midpoint of the cash session.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out lower than last week.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Markit manufacturing/service/composite PMI data at 9:45am, new home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, then a 2-year floating rate auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend day.  This is the one of the cross-currents against our bearish bias on the week.  There is a high probability statistic that the day after a trend day up we will exceed the day’s high by at least a tick.  The day began with a decent gap up and drive higher.  Then, after stalling for a bit at some market profile levels, we continued higher into end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, but trade only down to about 5838.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5878.75.  If they manage to take out overnight high 5884 and sustain trade above it, the bunker buster short signal is negated.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers erase all of Tuesday’s gains, trading a gap fill dwn to 5795.  Look for buyers down at 5790 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked higher overnight, exceeding the high print from Monday before stalling out around last Friday’s high.  The extended hours price action built nicely into the balance we are forming after the discovery down seen late last week (see Market Profile chart below).

The economic calendar today features House Price Index at 9am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but.  They only occur about 6% of the time.  The day began flat and sellers stepped in on the open.  They pushed hard for the first hour, forming a wide initial balance, before discovering a responsive bid.  We spent the rest of the day trading inside the initial balance range, earning the normal designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5795.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5778.75.  Look for buyers down at the 5772 low volume node and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher and work towards 5862.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work down to 5737.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight and held inside last Friday’s range.

The week kicks off with a light economic agenda.  The only scheduled events today are 3-and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with a short squeeze higher.  We worked higher up into the Fed minutes Wednesday afternoon.  Then sellers stepped in.  We spent the rest of the week working lower, rapidly at times, before settling into a wiry balance ahead of the weekend.

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a sharp move lower, down through the prior swing low.  This revealed a strong responsive bid.  Buyers pushed through lunchtime before sellers ultimately faded the move, closing us below the daily midpoint by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move down through overnight low 5778.75.  Look for buyers down at 5767.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5753 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5816.75 triggering a spike up to 5850 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price was balanced overnight, briefly exceeding the low set during Thursday trade before settling into two-way trade in the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range.

The only economic event today is the primary reading of U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down.  Sellers defended an attempt back up into Thursday’s range and that was that cue to start shorting.  The selling accelerated into the Monday gap and we worked the weekly gap closed.  We continued lower, nearing last week’s lows before the session ended.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5800.75.  Then we continue lower, down through overnight low 5786.50.  Look for buyers down at 5773.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 heavier selling takes price down to 5753.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and go higher, work up through overnight high 5826 and trade up to 5860.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, taking out the Tuesday regular trading hours high but not the high mark set during extended trade very early Tuesday morning.  At 8:30am Housing Starts/Permits data came in below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day.  The day began right around an open gap from last Wednesday.  Sellers worked price lower, closing the overnight gap then trading a bit lower before settling into two way trade.  There was no range extension, hence the normal day designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5911.50.  Look for buyers to defend here, and then work up through overnight high 5938.50.  Look for sellers up around 5943 and two way trade to ensues ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 sellers press harder, down through overnight low 5903 setting up a move to target 5876.25 before two way trade ensues ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trigger a rally up to 5976.25 before two way trade ensues ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Look for the minutes to give direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher, about halfway up into last Tuesday’s range before settling into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out better-than-expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have NAHB Housing Market Index and Business Inventories at 10am, 52- and 4-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The week began with a pro-gap up and we spent the rest of the day slowly trending higher.  It was an extremely strong push, one that makes the expectation of sellers resurfacing later this week less likely than anticipated on Sunday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5910.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5905.75, tagging 5900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5945 and probe last week’s high 5972.75.  Sellers are just above and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5876.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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