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The Old College Try Higher

NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly took out the Tuesday high before settling into balance.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications had no impact on the tape.

Also on the economic docket today we have New Home Sales at 10am, Crude oil inventory at 10:30am, and a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down and a strong open drive worked price higher, closing the gap in the first 30 minutes.  From then on price went trend up, slowly.

The action was directional enough to break us away from the massive value area that began building on 3/16 after the FOMC rate decision [see market profile below].

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the tape and take out overnight low 4422 setting up a move to test 4408 before responsive buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4441.25 setting up a move to target 4445.  Look for a continued move up to 4447 to close the open gap then responsive selling and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4408 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target the massive VPOC at 4395.  Trade gets choppy here, with responsive buyers the first go around, but any subsequent retests are likely to explore down to 4386.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 4447 and test 4452.50 before selling comes in.

Levels:

03232016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

03232016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Stocks Enter OPEX Pinned To The Highs

NASDAQ futures are priced to open modest gap up after a balanced overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session was literally the most mild one, year-to-date.  Price held yesterday’s mid on a test down to up and is now up near weekly highs.

On the economic agenda we have U of Michigan Confidence at 10am and Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  There was a hard move lower off the open that quickly fizzled out and price spent the rest of the session churning higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4393.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4405.75 then continue higher to probe above the weekly high 4407.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers keep the gap open and race up through overnight high 44057.75 early on before sustaining trade above 4407.75 to set up a move to target 4416 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch targets on the upside are 4424.75 then 4444.75.

Hypo 3 sellers close gap down to 4393 then take out overnight low 4384.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4378.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers show up, take out overnight low 4384.25 then set out to target 4343 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

03182016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

03182016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Expectations Lows as Investors Inebriate Themselves With Green Ale

NASDAQ futures are priced for a gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range.  Price breached the Wednesday high before rolling over early this morning.  On the way down, price managed to hold yesterday’s range before settling into two way trade.  At 8:30am we heard from the Philadelphia Fed and also Initial/Continuing Jobless claims.  The initial reaction is buying.

Also on the economic calendar today we have JOLTS Job Openings and Leading Indicators at 10am, and at 1pm there is a 10-Year TIPS auction.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The gap down to start the session was quickly bid up in an opening drive.  Sellers worked in ahead of the Fed rate decision by were ultimately overrun during the reaction to the unchanged rates.  Price worked higher to close the 10/21 open gap at 4399 before responsive sellers stepped in and faded the move.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4386.75.  Look for sellers to defend the 4400 century mark before a long balance takes hold.  Late in the session look for a move to take out overnight low 4359.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4386.75 then push up through 4400 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to take out overnight high 4412.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4416.  Stretch targets are 4424.75 then 4444.75.

Hypo 3 sellers gap and go lower, take out overnight low 4359.75 early then work down to target 4343 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

03172016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

03172016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Futures Coming Under Pressure After Strong Consumer Price Index Read; FOMC Rate Decision on Deck

NASDAQ futures are set to open gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly exceeding yesterday’s high on balanced trade.  At 8:30am the Consumer Price Index came out slightly better than expected [1.0% vs 0.9% expected] and introduced sellers who worked price below the midpoint of yesterday’s session.

There are several economic data points out today, with the FOMC Rate Decision at 2pm being the most significant.  The consensus forecast is for rates to stay unchanged at 0.50%.  The announcement will be followed by a press conference with Fed chair Yellen at 2:30pm.  Also on the docket we have Industrial/Manufacturing Production at 9:15am and crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  it was a quiet session that briefly pressed to a new weekly low before printing a failed auction near last Friday’s VPOC and began trading higher.  Price slowly worked the overnight gap fill before settling into two way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyer to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4356.  From here look for a move up to 4360 before we settle into two-way trade ahead of the FOMC.

Hypo 2 sellers use this news-driven sell momentum to continue pushing lower and test yesterday’s low 4329.  Look for sellers to continue down to 4322.25 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close gap up to 4356 then take out overnight high 4369 before settling into balance ahead of the Fed. Stretch targets are 4400 then 4407.

Levels:03162016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

03162016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Now We Wait

NASDAQ futures are set to gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price pushed lower for most of the session and briefly tested below yesterday’s low before finding a responsive bid and settling back into balance.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came out slightly better than expectations.  So far participants have not reacted to the news.

On the economic docket today we have NAHB Housing Market Index and Business Inventories at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and Net Long-Term TIC Flows at 4pm.

Also note, tomorrow afternoon The Fed rate decision will be announced. With this major news event looming on the horizon, the market will likely put all directional discovery on hold.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  While the other indices managed to give up most of their gains late yesterday, the NASDAQ held above the MID after having a slow uptrend all day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4357.50.  From here look for a move to test above overnight high 4359.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers hold price below 4350 setting up a move down through overnight low 4330.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4315.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through 4315.50 and sustains trade below it, setting up a move to test the 4300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buying sustains trade above overnight high 4359.25 setting up a move to test above the Monday high 4370.25. Stretch target is 4400.

Levels:

03152016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

03152016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Slight Uptick in Globex Volatility

NASDAQ futures are set to enter Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price pushed lower early on, deep into last Tuesday’s conviction range before finding a responsive bid and trading back into the Monday range.

The economic calendar is quiet today, but we have a 4-Week T-Bill auction at 11:30am and a 3-Year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  We came into the week gap down.  Sellers made an early attempt lower but were thwarted by responsive buyers who worked up to close the overnight gap.  Just after NYC lunch a strong sell hit the market and price traversed the entire daily range putting the session neutral.  By the close a responsive bid worked price essentially back to where the day began.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4300.25.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4304.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4309.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers strong, close gap at 4300.25 then push up through and sustain trade above 4309.50 setting up a move to target 4320 then 4330.

Hypo 3 sellers step in ahead of the overnight gap fill, around 4291 and push lower to test below the Monday low print 4268.75.  Responsive buyers step in ahead of 4259 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling works down through the Monday low 4268.75 and continues lower to target overnight low 4251.50.  Stretch target is 4234.50.

Levels:

03082016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

03082016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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NASDAQ Pro Gap Up After Neutral Extreme Action Yesterday

NASDAQ futures are priced for a pro gap up after an overnight session that featured normal range and volume. Price spent most of the session working higher, especially after European markets opened. Price managed to work into the upper quadrant of the 12/17 range before finding responsive sellers. At 9am the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 came in slightly lower than expected. The initial reaction is slight selling.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the December Consumer Confidence read at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. Early selling pressure managed to push the session range extension down, but before lunchtime responsive buyers were on the scene and bidding price higher. By early afternoon buyers made a strong move up/away from the mid which set up a tight compression near session high. At the end of the day the market pressed neutral and closed near the high giving the day structure the neutral extreme naming convention and some directional conviction heading into today.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory. Look for responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday close) to show up around 4626. Then look for a move to take out overnight high 4649. After a two-way auction of the 4650 zone buyers continue working higher to target 4669.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through the entire gap fill but it takes time. First the market finds responsive buyers around 4617.75. These buyers are overrun, taking trade down to 4615. Then a move to take out overnight low 4610.50 sets up. Look for responsive buyers at yesterday NVPOC 4605.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong gap and go higher. Price works up to 4669 early and sustains above it, setting up a secondary leg to target ATH high 4683.25.

Levels:

12292015_NQ_MP

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NASDAQ Game Plan for Fed Minutes Wednesday

For the second consecutive day the NASDAQ is coming into the session gap up. The globex session featured a slightly elevated range on normal volume. Price spent several hours grinding sideways along the low print set yesterday before a strong buying pushed entered early this morning. At 7am, MBA mortgage applications came in stronger than expected. Housing Starts at 8:30am was weaker than expected but Building Permits better.

Also on the economic calendar today is the Crude Oil inventory at 10:30am. Then we have the high impact FOMC minutes at 2pm this afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. Price started the day out strong but sellers defended the low from last Thursday. As soon as we entered the Thursday range price formed an excess high. After some big chop, sellers prevailed and pressed through session low to print a neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4570.25. Look for buyers to step in and two way grind to ensue until we hear the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 buyers use the gap up to go higher. Price holds north of 4580 and buyers take out overnight high 4589.75 setting up a move to target 4616 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers close gap down to 4570.25 then take out overnight low 4556.25. The profile is thin down here. Look for sellers to accelerate down through the low and trigger a liquidation down to 4514.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

11182015_NQ_MPVP

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Building A Swing Low

Nasdaq futures are trading flat after working higher for most of the overnight session. Price stalled out just ahead of the major CVN and just below the session high from two Monday’s back (the first Greek gap down). Range and volume were both elevated a touch above first sigma.

On the economic docket we saw Trade Balance data come out inline with expectations. At 3pm we have Consumer Credit. More importantly, we’ll hear minutes from The Fed’s June 16th meeting tomorrow at 2pm. Keep in mind there is also a Eurozone summit taking place right now pertaining to the Greek Referendum.

Yesterday started gap down but not nearly as extreme as futures were pricing Sunday night, instead open within the range/balance we’ve formed these last several weeks. The dilemma now, when it comes to participating with strength, is the nature of our current low—set during globex.

The market has been setting up context pieces like this, and methodically settling them. Take open gaps for example. Yesterday we went and closed up the 6/30 gap before finding responsive buyers then reversing the auction higher and closing the overnight gap.

Overall the market looks balanced/choppy. My primary expectation today is for buyers to push into the early morning short inventory. Look for a push up to take out overnight high 4448 and close the open gap up at 4454. From here, look for sellers to defend the 6/26 range and roll us over.

Hypo 2 is sellers work lower off the open, take out overnight low 4419.50 and push to target the VPOC at 4413.25. From here look for 2-way trade to ensue with buyers sustaining prices north of the 4400 century mark.

Hypo 3 liquidation takes hold, we press down through 4400 and set our sights on 4370.50.

Levels:

07072015_NQ_VP

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3 Days, 3 Pro Gaps

Futures have been busy inside the hours of globex. Futures have been busy during RTH. Futures, have been busy. The globex open was delayed last night while the exchange made an adjustment for a leap second. It’s rare, and weird, but if you’re a real market junky click here for the full CME documentation. Despite the shortened session we managed to print a highly abnormal range, beyond second sigma, on abnormally high volume. Greece officially defaulted on the IMF last night, but the session was otherwise without much headline volatility.

On deck this morning, we have ISM manufacturing at 10am but attention is likely to soon shift to tomorrow morning’s NFP release, set to be out a day early due to the markets being closed Friday.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day inside of the lower half of Monday’s trend day down. Sellers worked the overnight gap closed before buyers came in and in one swift rotation pushed through the entire range to put us neutral before we settled back to the mid.

The overnight action has created a curious case—we now have a gap below that likely needs to be resolved, but we’re also trading just below a few upside gaps. Also just above is the VPOC of the whole year at about 4450. Sellers roundly rejected the CVPOC Monday morning, but now we’re back up to test their conviction.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open, gap-and-go style, to take out overnight high 4441.75. This sets up a move to the CVPOC at 4450 and the open gap at 4454 where we churn about before ultimately fading lower into the afternoon.

Hypo 2 sellers push into the overnight inventory to test yesterday’s range 4412.50 but stall ahead of the range setting up a move higher to take out overnight high 4441.75 and target the CVPOC/open gap 4450/4454.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through yesterday’s range 4412.50 setting up a gap fill to 4390. Sellers overshoot the gap and take out overnight low 4388.75 setting up a test of swing low 4368.25. This hypo will require heavy OTF participation because we’ve managed to form some decent structure below (see market profile).

Levels:

07012015_NQ_VPMP

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