Home / Tag Archives: $CREE

Tag Archives: $CREE


You knew it was bound to happen.  You knew CREE cannot spelunk after ever single earnings announcement, right?  To be honest (and we keep it honest in the humble world of Raul) my feet were chilly to the thought yesterday too.  I went into earnings only half sized.  Do you know where I was most certainly not reducing LED exposure?

In LEDS, in RVLT…the “party rock”

I floated some statistics about CREE stock behavior during and after their earning’s announcement on the pelican stream.  They were rather interesting, really.  They are free, too, in case you are wondering.  CREE only trades higher 44% of the time after an earnings announcement BUT the session after an earnings announcement closes higher than the open 77% of the time.  Hence, therefore, thus…one does not simply trust CREE through earnings.


Quite the contrary, you instead hunt an entry the next day.  I bought CREE after it gap filled down and was trading BELOW where it opened today.  The deck was stacked for your boy Raul.  I made it a full size position, market order like a glut, and the rest is history.  They I bought OESX at the low of the day.

Do you see what I did here?  I completely pwned the LED trade, live on the interwebs.  I am not exactly dancing the tapioca over here yet.  My book is 25% concentrated into the LED industry as of the bell.  A concentration some of you may perhaps deem mad.

Let me ‘splain something else to you.  SINZO ABE will not be instigating any wars in the Far East.  He took center stage at Davos proclaiming these words.  He instead intends to lead an industrious nation and keep his battles economic in variety.  This is very good news for the LEDs we love because most of their tiny components are assembled the laborious hands of China men and women.

Thus I am pressing the envelope with my LED exposure, and I intend do so until I see the whites of Thomas Edison’s eyes—live from the land of the dead.  That last sentence makes no sense whatsoever.  I possess the will of a madman is what I am trying to convey.  Just be aware.

I have lots of other risk, side bets if you will, companies whose goals are all centered upon intelligent humans making more intelligent decisions.   I could go on, but I have already said too much.

Take time to enjoy the traditional lighting around you if this is something you hold dear, for soon it will be only a small piece of your nostalgic pie.

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I bought much more RVLT today, making it my second largest position behind CREE.  Let the LED Empire commence its march to glory.


IF you buy RVLT because of this post you may lose your pesos like Raul

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Six Hipsters on Bikes

That’s all it took to power the 30,000 light emitting diodes affixed to this year’s ball drop in Times Square. Tell me this isn’t the year of the LED so I may white wash your face into submission.

By the time the clean glow of LEDS is illuminating your shoppes and neighborhoods I will have already banked a king’s ransom.

FD: Long CREE, RVLT, and I just bot some LEDS


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Where Is Santa?

The selling continues this afternoon, with sellers continuing their blitzkrieg campaign with a 2pm algorithmic shock wave.  A block trade like the one we just experienced at 2pm is a way of starting a siphon—the algo sucks on the tube with the intent of motivating atmospheric pressure to move liquid(ity).  Once it starts the flow, a force of equal or greater value must arrive to stop the force.

There’s nothing wrong with sell algos, they just receive more criticism then buy algos.  They are both attempting the same feat.

Keep the context of our market in mind.  It is mid-December, we have had a huge run, correlations are low, the long term trend is higher, risky assets continue seeing cash inflow, and sellers just controlled their first week since mid-summer.

With that in mind, and despite my extensive coverage of the indices, I think it is important to keep your focus on individual setups and how they are behaving.

My book is going out 95% long after purchasing OWW today at the top tick.  I have other names of interest, including LEDS basing just below one dollar.

My AMZN YOLO lottery ticket was a loser.  I risked the entire premium because it was a lottery ticket.  It had a moment of hope early on, but could not breach recent overhead supply.  The trade needed more time than one day.  I realized this soon after taking the trade, and was discussing how TSLA would have been a more prudent YOLO…if there is such a thing.

I never grabbed ENPH yesterday.  Instead I just watched it and commented on it.  Now I cannot buy it and it can likely go much higher.  I simply lack to conviction to assume nearly 20% more risk.

My book of stocks spun donuts in the mud this week even though I have winners among my ranks.  Here’s the book, largest-to-smallest:


Final word of on the market – this looks like discouragement phase, where the market makes an earnest attempt to steal away your favorite shares.  Review your risk plans, make adjustments where necessary, and stick to them.  Do not assume gains are guaranteed.

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My Violent Book of Stocks Is Unchanged

We are fast approaching one month of static returns for the book of Raul.  November 18th my book peaked in tandem with the swing high in ONVO and turned lower.  Still much a drunken off my superfluous hot streak, I bought WLT with funds from cashing out of AAPL (note: this required me buying said shares a few days later.  It was a sublime exit and reentry, traded like a true scalper, but perhaps more than necessary for a swing book) and cut losses on SFM and YGE.

A few short days later I bought the dip in GOGO and more CREE.  The GOGO and AMBA are who returned me to prior portfolio highs and propelled my book gingerly above prior high mark last Wednesday…you know, back when the market was going down and I was 90% long.  Then starting Thursday the bulls stampeded higher.  SOL also sent a chill across the collective spine of solar stocks, especially the YGE I have been so eagerly accumulating, effectively sending me back to Mid-November gains.

So much progress forfeited in the name of MOAR. The worst part is I like solar stocks even more at these prices.  Goodness, if my book had any cash lying around I would have been buying FSLR today.  Am I sick?  I do not believe so, when I observe the FSLR weekly chart (I know, stretching my timeframe to justify a trade) I see exactly the type of conditions I thrive in.  Have a look:

FSLR_WEEKLY_12082013So I may forego hitting my 33% return goal on my swing portfolio, darn…I really need that money January 1st to buy tacos and such.  I suppose what I am saying is I do not answer to anyone, this is my money, and I like my odds over the next few weeks.  It is the god damned holidays anyhow, who wants to be ferreting for giblets when they can play Edward ham hands?

I doubt however that I could play this trade as slow as LED.  That trade has been violently dead since the summer.  Net-net they are a very green shoot in my annual performance, but we have been operating on the wrong side of the chart for quite some time.  I suppose the shear age of this correction and my optimism for the industry as a whole is what has me currently positioned more aggressively now than I have been since early March.

Final thought, the NASDAQ is up 3% since November 18th.  I am unchanged.  This means nothing to you.  It means everything to me when I glue my brain to NASDAQ 2-6 hours per day.   Here’s me verses the indices:


I am still 100% long.  I tried doing something, anything today, and no matter how hard I tried I could not justify selling anything.  I feel good about that.  Selling for the sake of selling, driven mainly from emotions associated with wheel spinning, seems like work for the sake of work.

When something breaks I will fix it, and I can’t sell YGE down here.  I can sell it lower.  I can sell it higher, but I can’t sell it here.


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The Flight of The Disruptor

Today is the kind of day where I simply do not have much nice to say, so I opt to communicate very little.  The cordiality and couth I stockpiled for months was most entirely used up on distant relatives and my derelict friend set.  I applied many of The Fly’s etiquette tips to my festivities and things went swimmingly.

I spoke with an old and salty GM engineer for quite some time about the prospects of a certain Elon Musk and his stunning Model S.  He dismissed the brand repeatedly stating they will never go beyond niche manufacturer and that their cars are only a toy for the jet class.

He had his points.  He loves the Volt but could not justify the lofty insurance premium it carried.  The same goes for the Model S, except the niche factor ratches premiums up further.  One can service their combustion powered vehicle at 20 places inside a five mile radius.  The Tesla lacks 100 years of servicing infrastructure (mechanics).  He pointed to the $60,000 Corvette Stingray and boldly claimed it had more technology in place than the Model S.  Finally, he is convinced Toyota and their fuel cell technology will be rolled out, en masse, thus completely cementing the geniuses who mass produce automobies leaving TSLA to only service the upper scraps, the golden giblets if you will, forever.

This dilemma rings right through to LED, where an old industry is being disrupted by new technology and young leaders firing sniper bullets at strategic targets from their bird nests.  How I see it, eating an elephant is a large task, but if you focus on taking one bite at a time you get it done.  A strange man named Michel Lotito once ate an entire airplane.  I suppose I side with the strange and against all odds crowd.  I am sure Steve Job’s silly iPod was destined to fail too.  1000 songs in your pocket does not stand a chance against the brilliant minds at Sony, right?

Will the masters of industry in lighting and auto making be disrupted by TSLA and CREE?  Or will TM mass produce a car you fill up with gasoline which it uses to power a fuel cell that powers your transportation and your home filled with PHG bulbs?

I supposed that’s the thought I will be pondering over the weekend.  I would love to hear your thoughts.

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The Normal Day

It turns out the NASDAQ printed what is called a normal day in market profile theory and the fun thing about normal days is they are anything but.  In fact, they are rather rare.

And I must say I do not particularly like normal days, at least not up here at swing highs, because they tend to occur at or near inflection points.  A normal day is described as having a very wide initial balance (first hour of trade) which is not breached for the remainder of the session.  It suggests indecision, intraday, mostly signaling directional conviction is low.

That context makes sense if think about gapping higher, in a hot (too hot?) bull trend, into a short holiday week.  Short sellers do not want to get steamrolled in the thin trade, buyers are hesitant to initiate additional exposure at these elevated levels, and current longs are likely mulling taking profits.

Add to that the narrow pockets of market momentum and you have a solid recipe for indecision.

I have my book about 90% long at this indecisive juncture.  AMBA finally went to work, crushing the hopes and dreams of Morgan Stanley analysis hoping to make a name in the technology space.  I like to think this guy who downgraded AMBA will read the Raul blog, so I have a special message for him: this chipset powers the GoPro, it is on the X-mas list of every adventurer.  Short interest, albeit modest, will start to get icy hands as we approach December 5th earnings.  Then they will start making mistakes.

The chicken trade adhered to the November seasonality statistics, naturally, unlike the unnatural meat produced in PPCs new streamlined robot facilities.  December brings a tad bit more seasonality mojo, and we still have national eat 1-to-3-birds-at-once day Thursday.  I took an obligatory 1/3 scale today, but I like my prospects with the net.

I bought AAPL back right near the closing bell.  If you recall, I was in this trade a few weeks back and bailed with a little 2 percent gain.  It is an easy vehicle for me to lever long exposure up and down, as it consolidates along gently.

I now hold large positions in the following names, listed largest-to-smallest:


These are all full size positions.  As you may imagine, this type of book requires attentiveness.  It has the capability of lopping 10% off my person rather effortlessly.

My ¾ size positions are as follows, listed again largest-to-smallest:


Note: AMBA was by far my largest position prior to taking a scale near today’s high.  Tesla and their innovative CEO Elon Musk are in the house of pain.  Much like any successful individual, the media will frame Elon with a skeptical eye.  Innovators hunt profit and self-gain after all, which is inherently evil.  The issue most closely watched at TSLA is the battery technology.  If it is to usher in the era of zero emission commuting, it needs to hold up to rigorous scrutiny.  If Telsa intends to roll out a model for the middle class, they need sound battery technology established.  The chart is just basing out, below my favorite moving averages, suggesting acceptance of these lower prices.  What likely comes next is a new exploration lower by price.  This will scare most of you.  But I will be casually observing the action, minding the drawdown to my books, and meticulously selecting an opportunity to ratchet up exposure because I love me some sweet baby Elon.

I have dog and pony positions in the following stocks.  These positions are practically placeholders and some are relics from prior trades:


I thought I would turn a clever trick in MJNA.  Now I am -40% on this stupid, STUPID, holding.  It will enjoy a fake pump service or go to zero otherwise I will continue to hold this dumbness.

ONVO needs to die for a while.  It trades poorly.  I will keep my toe in the water to keep my eyes on the name.

TWTR is another name I will hold until zero.  I use twitter more than any other social media service in the world, why wouldn’t I own it?  One day I will have huge size, but right now there simply is not much to base my risk on.  Therefore I wait.

This post has gone on far too long.  These are my holdings and some reasoning behind them.  Let’s see how they perform this week.

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1800 in Sight


Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife.  He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt.  His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence.  He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”

And so went the day.  Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop.  The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.

We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long.  There was a mix of winners on the day.  The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class.  Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.

The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.

Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market.  Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use.  On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate.  LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.

I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:


Many of those are partials.  The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT

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I Trust My Money to Good Stocks: You Should Too

Ladies, gentlemen, please…allow me a moment to address the market.

You may not make it down to the Raul blog often, but I reside rather gingerly on the front page of iBankCoin.  I know that my continued existence in these hallowed halls amongst the finest strangers the internet has to offer depends on one very important matter: banking coin at criminal rates.

After exhibiting complacency two weeks ago Friday I have been on the receiving end of a severe bludgeoning via shares of PPC due to a salmonella scare.  I regret to inform you I was forced out of this position today and took a large loss.  Let’s talk about large losses.

This was a ten percent position and I stopped out at twelve and a half percent.  Math:


I lost 1.2% of my account value.  Part of me wanted to ride the stock into earnings for the glory.  I envisioned myself riding into town on a chicken-drawn chariot with plebs laying olive branches on the street.  Upon reaching to town square I would be handed the ceremonial staff to perform a blessing of the populares, restoring balance to the social classes.

But in a rather stoic manner I cut the shares loose.  Because the truth is public perception is fickle.  Many of you are simple, as am I, and lack the resources or time to give a company a full fundamental shake.  I know inputs to making chicken meat are down across the board, but so does anyone else who analysis this company.  Elon Musk set a new standard with his quick assessment and public response to the Model S fire and now I expect the same from all companies.  I get Old Wall Street silence instead.  So PPC and its shareholders can go fly a kite for all I care and I’m back in the sewers, hungry as ever.

I cut LEDS too.  Perhaps the critics were fiddling with their catalytic converters when I scaled 10% profits one day into my campaign.  That would justify tossing tomatoes in my direction when I cut my net position for a scratch.

Finally, I cut SCTY.  Let’s say you love bath salts but all you can find on sale is old fashioned Mexican speedball.  You decide something is better than nothing and in your constant urge for instant gratification you gobble like ten Mexican speedballs.  But since you want that bath-salt-bug-eyed rage fueling your body while you chew arms off hobos, you find the speed only providing an uneasy feeling in the pit of your stomach.  That’s why I cut SCTY for a 3.4% loss.

My final move was buying a modest allotment of AMBA shares.  Morgan Stanly flip flops and the investment community dumps Ambarella?  GMAFB.  Well actually, you did give me a break because this was an opportunity to get back on board stock in a great company.  I liked it at 22, why wouldn’t I love it at 20?  I am a buyer of further weakness.

Now I have 22% cash power to buy some blood and a stable of stocks fit for an entrepreneur.  Largest-to-smallest friends, largest-to-smallest like always:

GOGO (huge), LO (+15% what?), ONVO, WLT (Walter), RVLT (a love/hate), AMBA (SAIL!), SFM, CREE, SLW, F, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and the big O

That is a hot look.  I like this basket of stocks.  I have a few names I want to add to the pot to get back to full long exposure but I am content to ride into tomorrow’s spooky trade with some cashish. The Fly’s ALJ has the look, FB is making ATH after hours, and YELP is at a slight discount.

FINALLY: YOU SHOULD COME INSIDE 12631.  There is a free trial tomorrow and Friday ONLY.  I do my best work in there with little-to-no shenanigans.  I would love to see some of my twitter buddies in there.  The password for the free trial will be released at midnight, so you vampires can come inside tonight and kick some ideas around and us normal folk will see you bright and early.


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Halloween Candy Only Market

There are crazy moves, both ways, going down in this market of stocks.

Early on we had a pretty solid read on the Nasdaq and S&P and we were talking through the psychology inside the 12631 pay wall.  I trade little blips in the gyrations of the NASDAQ and my current goal is not to earn money but instead to consistently identify, trigger, and manage one trading picture.  I have set the lofty goal of being right 75% of the time.  This is for me to prove TO ME that I have the fortitude to trade futures before committing adult money to the venture.

But I was watching my move play out and I started noticing excessive aggression from the sellers.  Have you ever walked up to a girl and started talking game only to quickly find out her husband or boyfriend is close in tote?  Said boyfriend often puffs out his chest and behaves like a primate because he feels threatened.  This is overreacting and once it happens you can almost rest assured you have won…something, life, the momentary affection of the women, whatever.  Market participants do the same thing all the time just before they lose.  The more you watch the tape, the clearer it becomes.

Anyhow, sellers started acting like scared bitches just before eleven and the S&P was trading up into the key battle line highlighted this morning.  This is what had me buying WDAY and WLT.  I got in before the pop and used most of my money doing it.  I am now 95% long and uncomfortably so.

So I went into my portfolio and tried really hard to find something to sell before the market makes me sell and I came out empty handed.  I know, it is completely negligent to be 95% long way up here but I cannot justify selling any of my positions where they stand.

I honestly feel as pickled into a catch 22 as I have ever felt in my trading career.

Off topic: I have sustained myself on water and candy ONLY today.  My eyes feel like they want to explode and gush sugar all over my keyboard.

Not chocolate nutty candy either…just the crack: taffies, lemon heads, now and later cubes, dubble bubbles (apropos), and jujyfruits.

Gallons of water.

Somebody convince me to sell one of these holdings, largest-to-smallest:


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