NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, after being balanced until about 5am New York.  Price probed up into last Thursday’s range before finding responsive sellers.  At 8:15am ADP employment data came out well below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below last Thursday’s midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing/services data at 1oam followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up and two-way auction before buyers stepped in and drove higher.  Said buyers reversed all of Monday’s selling pressure by late morning then continued to campaign higher throughout the afternoon, eventually ending the day at high-of-day, near last Friday’s high.

Trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade us down to 7200.  Buyers step in here, ahead of the gap fill, and work us up through overnight high 7245.25.  Look for sellers up at 7256.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 7259.50 to set up a move to target the open gap at 7294.75.  Look for sellers at the 7300 century mark and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 7181.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7176.75.  Look for buyers down at 7158.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping along inside the lower quadrant of Monday’s range until about 3:30am New York, when buyers stepped in and began to campaign for higher prices.  As we approach cash open, price continues to probe higher and is currently pegged above the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell talking policy in Chicago starting at 9:55am.  Today is a good day to have a quality squawk service for monitoring that event.  Also durable/factory goods orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The week began with a gap down and drive lower which successfully closed the 3/11 open gap.  It also discovered a strong responsive bid.  Said bidders took us back to the daily midpoint and we chopped along it for several hours before another wave of selling came through.  Despite two more significant legs lower, including one which resolved the open gap left behind on 2/11, responsive buyers were still engaging the tape.  We ramped into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap down to 6995.25.  From here buyers step in and work us higher, through overnight high 7066.25 to tag 7074.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 we poke up to 7074.50 off the open, find strong sellers who work us lower, closing overnight gap 6995.25 and continuing lower through overnight low 6981.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, sustain trade above 7075 setting up a move to target 7100 then the open gap at 7135.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, extending the selling seen last Friday and continuing to probe down into the 03/11 conviction buy day’s range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing along with construction spending at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week markets worked lower.  The holiday shortened week kicked off Tuesday with early buying across the board.  Said buyers were overrun by Tuesday afternoon.  We chopped through Thursday before sellers stepped in again Friday.  The NASDAQ showed slight signs of bullish divergence along the way.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap down and slight push lower before responsive buyers stepped in and took the market range extension up.  Said buyers could not reclaim the Wednesday/Thursday balance, instead initiative sellers (initiative relative to Thursday close, responsive relative to Friday open) stepped in and eventually worked price range extension down.  We ended the day on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open and trade up through overnight high 7126.75.  Sellers reject a move back into Friday’s range 7129.25 (resisting up to 7140) and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7066.75 setting up a move to close the 03/08 open gap at 7053.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers regain Friday range and sustain trade above 7140 setting up a move to 7169.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was choppy overnight, briefly trading below Friday’s low before coming into balance.  as we approach cash open, price is hovering below Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am, 6-month T-bill and 2-year Note auctions at 11:30am, and 3-month T-bill and 5-year Note auctions at 1pm.

Last week featured methodical, almost programmic selling early in the week.  Several major indices closed their 05/13 open gap nearly to the tick before reversing higher late in the week.  NASDAQ came under the most selling pressure while the Dow demonstrated relative strength.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below.

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap up above Thursday’s range.  An early attempt higher discovered responsive sellers inside last Monday’s range.  Said sellers reclaimed the Thursday range and made short work of closing the overnight gap before price worked back up to kiss the midpoint, find initiative sellers, and we eventually closed back down at low-of-day, right near the Thursday close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7315.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7291.25.  Look for buyers just below here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers close the gap down at 7266.75.  Look for buyers down at 7242 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 7354.75 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to tag the 7400 century mark.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price made a unidirectional move lower overnight, dropping and accelerating down through the week’s lows.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the open gap left behind on Monday, May 13th.

Also on the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down out of range that buyers quickly bid up at the open.  Buying continued through the early morning, closing the overnight gap before sellers stepped in and formed a sharp excess high.  This led to us going range extension down ahead of the FOMC minutes.  At 2pm the minutes came out and buyers stepped back in but were eventually overrun again by selling late in the session.  The day ended with price in the lower quadrant of the day’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 7400.  Look for sellers up at 7407 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 7428.25 then continue higher, up through overnight high 7434.75.  Look for sellers up at 7444 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7316 to tag the 7300 century mark.  Look for buyers down at 7272 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up beyond the Monday high before coming into balance.  Then around 5am price traded up through the Monday high again.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Monday high.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down into the week (just like the prior two weeks).  And early drive lower discovered a responsive bid and we spent the rest of the morning auctioning higher.  The daily mid held as support for most of the day until late-day selling pressured the tape back down near the lows.  Sellers were unable to press the market neutral.  Instead we ramped back to the midpoint into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7467.75 setting up a move to target the Friday gap at 7511.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to the naked VPOC at 7571 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7392.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7385.25.  Look for buyers down at 7334 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap down for the third consecutive week after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced until about 4am (again) when sellers stepped in and drove price lower.  As we approach cash open price is trading inside of last Wednesday’s lower quadrant.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with a big gap down into Monday, as did the week prior. Last week we saw weakness through Monday then buyers began to auction higher Tuesday and through Thursday afternoon.  Then sellers stepped back in.  Overall, choppy volatility.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down and after a brief two-way auction price worked higher to close the overnight gap and tag the Thursday naked VPOC before sellers returned.  We chopped through most of the afternoon before sellers drove back down to the lows near the end of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to 7334.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers take us down to tag the 7300 century mark.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7511.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher mostly overnight after a brief probe down below Monday’s low.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Monday midpoint.

There are no important economic events scheduled today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a pro gap down below the Friday range.  Buyers attempted back into range early on but were rejected away from it.  Sellers then slowly discovered lower prices, eventually tagging 7300 before two way trade ensued.  We closed near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7399.75 triggering a move up to 7507.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and trade down to 7332 before two way chop begins.  Chop eventually gives way to more selling, down through overnight low 7290.  Look for buyers down at 7271.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7609.75 closing the Friday open gap.

Levels:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down into levels unseen since 04/04.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the 4/4 highs.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairmen Powell delivering opening remarks at a community development conference in DC along with initial/continuing jobless claims data at 8:30am.  There are 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30 year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and two-way auction.  Chop eventually gave way to buyers working a full gap fill before we balanced in a tight range above the midpoint for most of the day. Then, late in the afternoon sellers drove price lower, ending the day just below session mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to close the open gap at 7518.75.  Look for buyers down at 7513 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and reclaim the Wednesday low 7600 setting up a move to target 7622.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation.  Look for price to slash down through 7500.  Look for buyers down at 7643.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced most of the overnight session until about 5:45am when sellers pushed into price.  Said selling was unable to take out the Tuesday low before discovering a responsive buyer.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 10-yeat note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down below the Monday midpoint.  After a brief two-way open auction, price drove lower, taking out the Monday low early on before beginning to trend lower.  We trended down to 7600 before a ramp higher set up into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7674.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7698 before stalling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 7700 setting up a move to target 7731 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7602 setting up a move to target 7557 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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