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Super Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the upper quadrant of Monday’s range. Buyers briefly exceeded the Monday high around 3:30am before traders demonstrated dissatisfaction with the G7 finance minister’s decision to hold off on any fiscal easing today in the wake of coronavirus fears. Their verbiage was dovish, but no action taken. This was met with price slipping back to the Globex session’s midpoint.

There are no other economic events today. Today is Super Tuesday and we can expect some political noise throughout the day.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap up that sellers were able to resolve during an opening two-way auction. Said sellers were rejected away from the Friday range early on. We formed IB low around 10:30am New York and then worked higher, trading up through last Thursday’s midpoint, right up the the weekly ATR band. Price formed a double top here, then retraced back to the midpoint before a second wave of buying rolled in, taking us to a new high of day and right back to the price level we were at when news of the U.S. airstrike on Iran hit the wires several weeks ago. Some of that late afternoon buying was given back during settlement but the day ended in the upper quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8917.50. Look for sellers up at 8948.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8785.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 8738.50. Look for buyers down at 8700 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 8948.25 setting up a move to 9000.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Big overnight session, up a quick +90, here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme (off the charts) range and volume. The globex session began with a gap down that had price near Friday’s midpoint. From there sellers worked a touch lower before discovering a strong responsive bid. This formed an excess low before buyers went to work resolving the Sunday gap. Price then continued higher, trading up through the Friday high and more, eventually working up beyond the Thursday midpoint before finding sellers. Said sellers erased the gains back to the Friday close (unchanged). As we approach cash open, price is about 90 points higher than the Friday close and moving fast.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment at 10am, 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am. Also be aware that Berkshire Hathaway reports earnings after the bell.  These earnings could move the whole market.

Last week began with a gap down and saw selling all week. Full on risk off, with investors rotating away from equities. Friday morning markets caught a bid and went into the weekend with a choppy balance, off the lows. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down and two way auction, with price trading down to levels unseen since November 1st. Sellers could not however take out the November first low before buyers stepped in. Buyers then became initiative (initiative relative to Friday open, responsive relative to Thursday close) closing the overnight gap and trading up into Thursday’s lower quadrant before settling into a big chop along the daily midpoint. Late int he session price ramped to a new high of day and closed there.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, trading up through overnight high 8677.25. Look for sellers up at 8715.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to the open gap at 8847.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8505. From here sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 8224.25. Look for buyers down at 8089.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Gap down in range ;-) huge NFP beat, here is Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping briefly to a new all-time high during globex trade before settling into balance above Thursday’s midpoint. At 8:30am Nonfarm payroll data came out stronger-than-expected, expand the following tweet to see more info on the job’s report:

As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Thursday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have the Fed releasing their semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress at 11am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap up that sellers quickly resolved during the opening auction. From then-on buyers were in control, working price up near all-time highs before settling into a tight balance along the high. We ramped up near end-of-day but stopped a few points shy of new highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 9454.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 9471, setting up a move to tag 9500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 9395. Look for buyers down at 9379.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 9341.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ holds onto early week gains, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, coming to within a few tick of record highs (but not exceeding them) before falling into a tight balance along the highs. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

The only other economic events today are 4- and 8-weekT-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a pro gap up to new all-time highs. Then an open drive down send price careening lower, pausing briefly to chop around 9400 before continuing lower to close the overnight pro gap. Sellers continued a bit lower before finding responsive buyers near Tuesday’s NVPOC. It was choppy from here, with buyers eventually ramping price back up to the daily midpoint. We ended the session just below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9383.25. From here we continue lower, taking out overnight low 9375 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 9342 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo three buyers gap-and-go higher, defending 9400 before working up through overnight high 9460, setting up a move to 9500.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ races higher overnight, even more coronavirus fear subsides, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday pro gap up, a second pro gap in a row, after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 3:30am New York when some news of a coronavirus cure spiked price higher. Since then, there was a bit of a balance around 9420 and as we approach cash open, price is hovering at record highs, up beyond 9450.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services composite at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a gap up and two-way auction before buyers stepped in and methodically discovered higher prices. After taking out the 9300 century mark the auction tightened up and balanced for a bit before continuing higher and ended near high of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for the higher timeframe to be active. We are out of balance. Primary hypo is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, working up to tag the 9500 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and check back to that 3:30am news, working down to 9353.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 9326.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Coronavirus fear subsides, NASDAQ up a quick +140, here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was trend up overnight, after a brief bout of selling following weaker-than-expected sales from Google parent Alphabet, Inc:

Alphabet Q4 EPS $15.35 Beats $12.53 Estimate, Sales $46.075B Miss $46.94B Estimate

 

Google earning sent price about 30 points lower during settlement, but that was all the control sellers would have for the rest of the Globex session. From then onward, price was trend up, forming one short squeeze after another, methodically migrating price back up near all-time highs. Around 7am the World Health Organization declared that were are not in a pandemic with Coronoavirus. This news was greeted with an additional wave higher in prices. As we approach cash open, price is about 30 points off of all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have durable goods and factory orders at 10am.

There are no major earnings due out for the rest of the week.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up, short-squeeze. The day began with a gap up and drive higher, with buyers driving price up beyond our weekly measured move ATR band 9131.75. This right away suggested that something big might be going on, with the higher timeframe active. Shortly after the first hour of trade we went range extension up for a few minutes before we settled into a tight chop along the upper quadrant for the duration of the session. Late in the day we fell back into the midpoint. The action served to printed a p-shaped market profile, which suggests a short squeeze occured. These are often short-term phenomena, however with the upward action seen overnight, it appears to be more that that.

Heading into today we are way out of balance. Expect the higher time frame to duke it out for the first hour or so. Primary hypo is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 9280 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 9280 and make a run for 9300.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and tag the odd open gap at 9218.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 some kind of liquidation takes hold, ripping down through 9200, pausing briefly at 9172.50 before continuing lower, effectively erasing the overnight gains and closing the gap down to 9113.75 on our way to taking out overnight low 9073. Look for buyers down at 9088 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +66 into February, day after trend day ;-) here is the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price chopped higher overnight, trading up beyond last Friday’s midpoint by about 15 point before coming into balance. As we approach cash open, price is hovering about 15 point below the Friday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing at 10am followed by 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Major NASDAQ component and Google parent Alphabet, Inc is set to report earnings after the bell.

Last week kicked off with a gap down. We spent half the week reversing it, eventually doing so Wednesday morning. Thursday ended strong before a gap down Friday kicked off a trend down into the weekend. The last week performance of each index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down. The day began with a gap down in range followed by a drive lower. Sellers worked down below the Thursday low before a bit of a bid stepped in. Said bid was overrun shortly after New York lunch. We ended the session with a big of a ramp higher, ramping ahead of the open gap left behind Monday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 9092.25 to tag 9100. Look for sellers ahead of 9111 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9016.25 setting up a move down through overnight low 8975. Look for buyers down at 8958.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8900.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Month-end, NASDAQ down a quick -30, here is Friday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, trading down near the per-Amazon earnings spike before coming into balance. At 8:30am PCE core data came out in-line with expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering below 9200, about -50 points off the overnight high.

On the economic calendar today we have Chicago purchasing manager at 9:45am followed by the final January reading of sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down that buyers quickly resolved with an open drive up. After closing the gap and trading a few points beyond 9100,responsive sellers stepped in and reversed the morning gains and more, going range extension down and pressing deep into Tuesday’s conviction buy range. Then as the late afternoon progressed, bidders stepped back in, reclaiming the midpoint then defending it around 3pm before rallying price to a new high of day, pushing us neutral. Amazon earnings then propelled a sharp move higher, trading up beyond last Friday’s midpoint during before the settlement period ended. We closed near the high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to be actively defending 9200, taking out overnight low 9138 to set up a move down to 9100. Look for buyers down at 9086 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and trade up through overnight high 9248.75. Look for sellers up at 9257.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 9280.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Sellers asserting control overnight despite mostly strong earnings, $AMZN on deck, here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, trading down near the Tuesday low before discovering a responsive bid. Then price worked back up near the Wednesday low but could not reclaim it. Sellers rejected a move back into Wednesday’s range, and we have been in a choppy balance below the Wednesday low since. At 8:30am GDP came out inline with expectations and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed-to-slightly-worse than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering about -12 point below the Wednesday low.

Microsoft, Facebook and Tesla reported earnings after hours Wednesday. MSFT is higher by +3.70% after beating analyst expectations,  FB is down -7% lower after signaling a slowdown and announcing a share buyback and TSLA is up +8.95% after the company reported surprisingly strong numbers for the second straight quarter.

On the economic calendar today we have no major events. Amazon reports earnings after the bell and will likely move the entire index.

Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but normal. They happen less than 20% of the time. The day began with a gap up into last Friday’s range. Sellers quickly drove price lower during the first 45 minutes of trade, working down into an interesting low volume pocket left behind Tuesday. Strong responsive sellers were on the scene here and nearly worked price to a new high of day, attempting to propel higher after the FOMC rate decision. However they were stopped a few ticks short, forming a weak high before slipping back down through the daily mid by late afternoon. The first 45 minutes of trade were so dynamic that higher time frame participants never managed to press a range extension. We ended the day in the lower quadrant.

Normal day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reclaim the Wednesday low 9072.25 and sustain trade above 9085, setting up a run up through overnight high 9137 and a continuation up through the Wednesday weak high 9185.75. This sets up a run at 9100. Look for sellers up at 9113 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers defend 9085 and push us down from it, working down through overnight low 9003.50.  Look for buyers down at 9000 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a Monday gap fill down to 8954 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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$AAPL reports strong, $MSFT $FB $TSLA on deck, here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, in part due to strong earnings from Apple after the close Tuesday.

Apple Q1 EPS $4.99 Vs $4.18 Last Year

Shares of the most valuable public company in the world are up just shy of +2% in pre-market trade.

As we approach cash open, the NASDAQ is currently trading up beyond Tuesday’s range, inside the lower quadrant of last Friday’s trend down.

On the economic calendar toady we have pending home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and then an FOMC rate decision at 2pm. The consensus is for no change to the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate, however investors will be keen on any word use and tone from the Fed Chairman when he delivers a press conference at 2:30pm.

Also be aware that the second and fifth largest companies report earnings after the bell today, Microsoft and Facebook. Both are potential index movers. Tesla also reports after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up near the Monday high, and after a two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove price higher. Price went slowly trend up all day before coming into a tight balance near the end of the session, just below last Friday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9103.75. Then we continue lower, down through overnight low 9091.75. Look for buyers down at 9089.25 then chop. Then look for the third reaction after the Fed presser to provide direction into the close.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 9040. Then look for the third reaction after the Fed presser to provide direction into the close.

Hypo 3 buyers gap and go higher, trading up through overnight high 9157 setting up a move to target 9192 before two way trade ensues. Then look for the third reaction after the Fed presser to provide direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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