Month-End Monday, Oh Joy

266 views

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week gap down after printing an elevated range on slightly abnormal volume. Price made a hard push lower on the globex open yesterday evening and selling pushed us below Friday’s range before finding buying. Since then 2-way trade has ensued and the session overall looks balanced. We are currently priced to open near last Friday’s low.

The economic calendar is quiet this morning. At 9:45am we have Chicago Purchasing Manager. As the week matures investors will be shifting their attention to Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

Last week started out with a dramatic gap down and early liquidation. The NYSE invoked Rule 48 Monday-Wednesday to quell volatility and it appears to have helped. Monday’s low pricing turned out to be a bargain. For the rest of the week price essentially traded higher.

Friday we printed a neutral day, barely, after making a second range extension down by about 2-ticks. It was the fourth neutral day in a row.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4332.50. Look for some churn defense from the sellers and pushy rotations in both directions (chop) throughout the day as OTF postures heading into September. From there look for sellers to continue pushing higher to close the open 8/20 gap up at 4363.50.

Hypo 2 buyers struggle to close the overnight gap as sellers are seen defending the 4300 century mark. Seller make a move to target overnight low 4270.25 setting up a slow grind lower to target 4218.25.

Hypo 3 is a summer grinder, marking time today to burn up the month. Look for range trade from about 4280 – 4325.

Levels:

08312015_NQ_VP

Balanced Overnight Session Heading into Friday

353 views

For the first time this week the overnight session is coming in with volume and range below extreme 3rd sigma. The session was balanced overall with a clear pivot at 4307. Price managed to take out Thursday’s high briefly before rolling back down into two way trade. At 8:30am Personal Consumption/Expenditure stats were out and the initial reaction has been slight selling.

Also up for release today we have the final August read of U of M Confidence and at 1pom the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Yesterday price opened gap up, out of range from Wednesday. An early short squeeze transitioned into initiative buying before sellers came in and pushed price neutral. At the end of the day buyers ramped back up, fading the second range extension.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 4329.50. From there look for buyers to take out overnight high 4340.75 then struggle and ultimately roll over at 4349 before two-way summer Friday trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers keep price south of the overnight 4307 pivot setting up a leg lower to take out overnight low 4281.75. Look for sellers to target Wednesday’s open gap 4211.25.

Hypo 3 a more muted session, contained within yesterday’s range. Two-way chop fest.

Levels:

08282015_NQ_VP

Ripe Conditions for A Short Squeeze

416 views

Nasdaq futures are up heading into Thursday’s trade. The session featured 2-way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range before buyers came and pushed price about half way into the Friday print. Volume is coming in just a touch below 3rd sigma, a normalization of sorts, while range is still extreme. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected while Personal Consumption stats were in line with expectations. Initial/Continuing Jobless claims (also dropped at 8:30am) was mixed. Third reaction analysis yields a buy after the data.

Also on the agenda today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day. This print came on the tails of a neutral extreme down day. The neutral extreme day carries the 3rd highest amount of directional conviction behind the trend day and double distribution trend day. That means sellers carried a high expectation Tuesday afternoon of seeing lower prices. When instead price went gap up yesterday, then neutral extreme up, it created conditions for a short squeeze.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a short covering rally initially off the open, buyers pushing higher. Look for price to take out overnight high 4287.75 and target 4300. Then look for sellers to work back in and 2 way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 the short squeeze triggers real, initiative buying which carries price higher, up to 4342.25. Then sellers come in.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to take out overnight low 4205.25 and test the odd LVN at 4200. Buyers defend here and 2-way trade ensues south of 4250.

Hypo 4 sellers push down through the odd LVN at 4200 and liquidate down the zipper to target 4130.25.

Levels:

08272015_NQ_VP

Now We Have Some Levels To Work With

464 views

The globex session continues to be active for Nasdaq futures. For a third session we saw price and volume exceed third sigma stats meaning yet another outlier session. Price continued to drift lower after the bell and managed to push down below Monday’s close before finding buyers ahead of the low. From there forward price pushed higher. Heading into the Durable Goods data [8:30am] price was back up to yesterday’s midpoint. The initial reaction to the data is buying

Also on the agenda today we have crude oil/distillate inventories at 10:30am and tomorrow we hear the first round of GDP data.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. Price opened gap up and pushed higher in the morning to close the weekend gap up at 4197.75. From here we formed a slight excess high then rolled over. Initially buyers defended the second range extension around 4120 and pushed back to the mid, but ultimately sellers overwhelmed the bid and we cascaded lower into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open. Look for sellers to defend from 4134.75 – 4144.50 then roll over to target 4080.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4144.50 setting up a move to 4180.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open, take out 4100 early and target 4050.

Levels:

08262015_NQ_VP

Rare Globex Session To Start Week [UPDATED PRICE LEVELS]

559 views

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week down over 200 points from Friday’s close. The overnight session has exceeded 3rd sigma stats on both range and volume meaning what we see here is an outlier-type event. Price trended lower for most of the session and is currently trading down into prices unseen since October 2014.

The economic calendar is busy this week, but today we have no economic events to consider.

Last week started with a strong up day, Tuesday marked time with a slight down drift, Wednesday was weak then pushed up to neutral and faded, Thursday and Friday we trended lower. We closed the week out trending lower, with price closing around session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for selling to continue. We may see buyers push into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers ahead of 4026 and continued selling. Downside targets include the 10/22/14 open gap at 3950 then the 10/20/2014 open gap at 3867.50.

Hypo 2 buyers step in hard. Push up through 4026. Look for sellers around 4073. If buyers can blow through here then a pole climb up to 4154.

Hypo 3 tight churn on the open with a slight downward skew.

Levels:08232015_NQ_VP_updated-levels

 

Abnormal Marks Heading into Friday

333 views

Nasdaq futures are pricing a gap down heading into Friday. The index continued lower after trending lower Thursday. The action featured an elevated range but printed on extremely abnormal volume—well over the 60k second sigma mark. Price managed to push down below the open gap from 07/09 and briefly poke below the swing low before finding buyers. Sellers could be seen defending Thursday’s range and rolling price over as we head into the open.

The economic docket is light this summer Friday, with Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday was a trend day down in market profile context. Such a day type is considered a ‘risk free’ entry into the following session meaning expectation is we exceed the trend day’s range by at least a tick the following session. The day started with a gap down followed by an opening sell drive. Price spent some time negotiating the 4400 century mark before initiating a fresh leg lower to close the 07/10 open gap at 4409.

Our contextual sub indices of the Nasdaq are interesting here. We saw the anticipated flush lower in semiconductors, but the Nasdsaq Transportation index is well off its recent lows. This divergence is a feather in the bull cap.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for any early excitement to quickly fizzle into Friday summer trade. Today is monthly option expiration day, and the most important action is pinning both longs and shorts down. Look for buyers to attempt a move back up to 4363.50 overnight gap but struggle and roll over then take out overnight low 4328.75. Price continues exploring lower prices. Look for responsive buyers ahead of the 3/26 low at 4271.75 then a rip back into Thursday’s range to end the session.

Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, take out overnight low 4328.75 quick, then crickets, then a sharp reversal to close up near 4395.75 MCVPOC and/or 4400.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation—take out overnight low 4328.75 and accelerate to target the 3/26 low at 4271.75.

Hypo 4 strong push to close the overnight gap up to 4363.50 and then a pole climb up to 4400, churn, then initiative buyers push up to 4436.50.

Levels:08212015_NQ_VP

Chop and Erosion

347 views

Nadaq futures are down coming into Thursday after printing an abnormal session overnight.  News flow accelerated overnight as pundits generously offered reasons for market moves.  The overnight range is 51.5 points thus far, well beyond the second sigma threshold on elevated volume.  During globex price briefly pushed up to about the midpoint of yesterday before rolling over and taking out yesterday’s low and pressing deep into last week’s range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out and the initial reaction is buying.

There’s a big data dump scheduled for 10am including Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day started gap down outside of Tuesday’s range and pushed lower before responsive buyers showed up.  Post FOMC minutes buyers turned initiative and close the overnight gap up to 4543.25 then dried up and selling back to the mean ensued.

Neutral days are sessions where the high and low of the first hour of trade (initial balance) are breached.  They suggest higher time frame posturing and often occur at/near inflection points.  This one occurred in the middle of the range so it is difficult to gain an inflection point insight from it.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push into the overnight inventory.  Look for them to struggle to close the gap up at 4503.75 then sellers resume exploring lower.  Sellers target overnight low 4461.50.  Buyers need to defend 4456 otherwise look for a test below last Wednesday’s low at 4431.25.  Stretch target is 4400 century mark.

Hypo 2 sellers work in early buy struggle to capture 4456.  Responsive buyers push the overnight gap up to 4503.75 shut then set their sights on overnight high 4513.  Look for responsive sellers around 4520.

Hypo 3, chop and erosion.  Tight range trade in bottom quad of yesterday’s range with a slight downward bias.  Sellers capped at 4440 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

08202015_NQ_VP

Fed Minutes Wednesday: Premarket Nasdaq Round Up

336 views

Nasdaq futures are down a bit heading into Wednesday’s trade after an interesting overnight session. US markets followed China’s Shanghai Composite to an extent. Their index moved fast, falling more than 5% before reversing on rumors the People’s Bank of China could announce a 50-basis-point rate cut. Our session featured a slightly elevated range on normal volume. Price managed to push up above Tuesday’s mid briefly before rolling over and pushing deep into Monday’s trend day. Since then we are off the lows and the structure is balanced overall.

At 7am we had MBA Mortgage Applications and saw no reaction from the market. At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data was out and so far also is seeing a muted response. At 10:30am we have the weekly crude/gas/distillate inventory reports. However, investors are all eyes on The Fed who this afternoon (2pm ) will release Minutes from their July 28th-29th meeting. Participants will be parsing the language for any clues as to whether September will bring a rate hike.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The session was slow with a slight downward drift and methodical. Buyers pushed into the overnight inventory but were unable to close the open gap from Monday before sellers stepped in. Sellers then worked down to test the value area high zones of the well-established value area that was below.

Heading into today, we are trading right at the VPOC of the well-established value area. My primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4543.25. From there look for them to continue higher but stall ahead of overnight high 4552.25 and roll over. Then look for sellers to work down to 4511.50 then 4505.50.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower off the open, push down into 4505.75 and exceed it briefly before responsive buyers step in and two-way trade ensues.

These two hypos are before the FOMC minutes. I expect the morning shuffle then action to quiet down as we enter wait-and-see mode. Then I will use 3rd reaction analysis to assess direction into the weekend.

Levels:

08192015_NQ_VP

 

 

Big Magnet Below

350 views

Nasdaq futures are indicate slightly lower prices heading into Tuesday’s open. The overnight session featured and early push above Monday’s high print 4567.75 and up to the value area high established 8/10 before responsive sellers arrived and rolled the session over. The rest of the evening was spent working lower.

At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits were released. The initial reaction to the data is buying. Investors will starting thinking about tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC minutes soon and this may cause us to enter a holding pattern.

Yesterday we printed what resembles a triple distribution trend day. The directional price action was not vigorous enough to classify the day as a bona fide trend day, but still a high conviction day. Buyers managed to close the open gap from 8/10 at the end of the session. Expectation was to see the session high exceeded, if only by a tick, today. The question now is whether the market profile trend day rule was satisfied overnight, of in instead we will revisit the high again soon.

Aside from last Tuesday, Tuesday has been a quiet day in recent history. Therefore, heading into today’s session, my primary expectation is for a slow session. Look for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work higher. I am bearish however, thus I expect buyers to struggle to fill the overnight gap and price to roll over. There is a major value area below that I expect to behave like a magnet. Look for sellers to take out the overnight low then responsive buying from 4544.25 to 4535.

Hypo 2 buyers close the overnight gap 4564.75 and set their targets on overnight high 4573.50. Look for a continuation move up to 4592.75 then responsive sellers step in.

Hypo 3, liquidation takes hold and sellers push down to the VPOC at 4517.

Levels:

08182015_NQ_VP

Prepared for Lower Prices

432 views

Nasdaq futures are priced to start the week down a touch. The overnight session featured normal volume and range and printed a balanced market profile. Looking it a bit more closely at the auction shows a few interesting events. Price pushed higher initially, right up to where the surprise Thursday afternoon sellers showed up. Responsive selling was found again in the 4545 range. Price action is interesting to with the entire overnight session resembling a head and shoulders pattern.

The week kicks off with two low-impact economic events. At 10am the NAHB Housing Market Index data is due out, and at 4pm the Net Long-term TIC flows. Investors will soon shift their attention to Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC will release the minutes from their July 28th meeting.

Last week index traders were taken for a wild ride. Price started the week with a big gap up and buying pressure most of Monday. Toward the afternoon the market showed signs of rolling over and Tuesday and Wednesday morning featured hard selling. By lunch Wednesday sellers dried up and in their wake came buyers who pushed us back through the range and closed a major gap. Thursday and Friday were grinder sessions.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work back into the tape. Look for sellers to take out overnight low and target 4468.25. Look for buyers in this area and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4532.25. Look for buyers to continue working higher and take out overnight high 4546.25 to target 4572. Stretch target on the upside is the open gap at 4585.75.

Hypo 3 buyers sustain above 4500 and two way trade ensues south of 4540.

Levels:

08172015_NQ_VP

Month-End Monday, Oh Joy

266 views

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week gap down after printing an elevated range on slightly abnormal volume. Price made a hard push lower on the globex open yesterday evening and selling pushed us below Friday’s range before finding buying. Since then 2-way trade has ensued and the session overall looks balanced. We are currently priced to open near last Friday’s low.

The economic calendar is quiet this morning. At 9:45am we have Chicago Purchasing Manager. As the week matures investors will be shifting their attention to Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

Last week started out with a dramatic gap down and early liquidation. The NYSE invoked Rule 48 Monday-Wednesday to quell volatility and it appears to have helped. Monday’s low pricing turned out to be a bargain. For the rest of the week price essentially traded higher.

Friday we printed a neutral day, barely, after making a second range extension down by about 2-ticks. It was the fourth neutral day in a row.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4332.50. Look for some churn defense from the sellers and pushy rotations in both directions (chop) throughout the day as OTF postures heading into September. From there look for sellers to continue pushing higher to close the open 8/20 gap up at 4363.50.

Hypo 2 buyers struggle to close the overnight gap as sellers are seen defending the 4300 century mark. Seller make a move to target overnight low 4270.25 setting up a slow grind lower to target 4218.25.

Hypo 3 is a summer grinder, marking time today to burn up the month. Look for range trade from about 4280 – 4325.

Levels:

08312015_NQ_VP

Balanced Overnight Session Heading into Friday

353 views

For the first time this week the overnight session is coming in with volume and range below extreme 3rd sigma. The session was balanced overall with a clear pivot at 4307. Price managed to take out Thursday’s high briefly before rolling back down into two way trade. At 8:30am Personal Consumption/Expenditure stats were out and the initial reaction has been slight selling.

Also up for release today we have the final August read of U of M Confidence and at 1pom the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Yesterday price opened gap up, out of range from Wednesday. An early short squeeze transitioned into initiative buying before sellers came in and pushed price neutral. At the end of the day buyers ramped back up, fading the second range extension.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 4329.50. From there look for buyers to take out overnight high 4340.75 then struggle and ultimately roll over at 4349 before two-way summer Friday trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers keep price south of the overnight 4307 pivot setting up a leg lower to take out overnight low 4281.75. Look for sellers to target Wednesday’s open gap 4211.25.

Hypo 3 a more muted session, contained within yesterday’s range. Two-way chop fest.

Levels:

08282015_NQ_VP

Ripe Conditions for A Short Squeeze

416 views

Nasdaq futures are up heading into Thursday’s trade. The session featured 2-way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range before buyers came and pushed price about half way into the Friday print. Volume is coming in just a touch below 3rd sigma, a normalization of sorts, while range is still extreme. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected while Personal Consumption stats were in line with expectations. Initial/Continuing Jobless claims (also dropped at 8:30am) was mixed. Third reaction analysis yields a buy after the data.

Also on the agenda today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day. This print came on the tails of a neutral extreme down day. The neutral extreme day carries the 3rd highest amount of directional conviction behind the trend day and double distribution trend day. That means sellers carried a high expectation Tuesday afternoon of seeing lower prices. When instead price went gap up yesterday, then neutral extreme up, it created conditions for a short squeeze.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a short covering rally initially off the open, buyers pushing higher. Look for price to take out overnight high 4287.75 and target 4300. Then look for sellers to work back in and 2 way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 the short squeeze triggers real, initiative buying which carries price higher, up to 4342.25. Then sellers come in.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to take out overnight low 4205.25 and test the odd LVN at 4200. Buyers defend here and 2-way trade ensues south of 4250.

Hypo 4 sellers push down through the odd LVN at 4200 and liquidate down the zipper to target 4130.25.

Levels:

08272015_NQ_VP

Now We Have Some Levels To Work With

464 views

The globex session continues to be active for Nasdaq futures. For a third session we saw price and volume exceed third sigma stats meaning yet another outlier session. Price continued to drift lower after the bell and managed to push down below Monday’s close before finding buyers ahead of the low. From there forward price pushed higher. Heading into the Durable Goods data [8:30am] price was back up to yesterday’s midpoint. The initial reaction to the data is buying

Also on the agenda today we have crude oil/distillate inventories at 10:30am and tomorrow we hear the first round of GDP data.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. Price opened gap up and pushed higher in the morning to close the weekend gap up at 4197.75. From here we formed a slight excess high then rolled over. Initially buyers defended the second range extension around 4120 and pushed back to the mid, but ultimately sellers overwhelmed the bid and we cascaded lower into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open. Look for sellers to defend from 4134.75 – 4144.50 then roll over to target 4080.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4144.50 setting up a move to 4180.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open, take out 4100 early and target 4050.

Levels:

08262015_NQ_VP

Rare Globex Session To Start Week [UPDATED PRICE LEVELS]

559 views

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week down over 200 points from Friday’s close. The overnight session has exceeded 3rd sigma stats on both range and volume meaning what we see here is an outlier-type event. Price trended lower for most of the session and is currently trading down into prices unseen since October 2014.

The economic calendar is busy this week, but today we have no economic events to consider.

Last week started with a strong up day, Tuesday marked time with a slight down drift, Wednesday was weak then pushed up to neutral and faded, Thursday and Friday we trended lower. We closed the week out trending lower, with price closing around session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for selling to continue. We may see buyers push into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers ahead of 4026 and continued selling. Downside targets include the 10/22/14 open gap at 3950 then the 10/20/2014 open gap at 3867.50.

Hypo 2 buyers step in hard. Push up through 4026. Look for sellers around 4073. If buyers can blow through here then a pole climb up to 4154.

Hypo 3 tight churn on the open with a slight downward skew.

Levels:08232015_NQ_VP_updated-levels

 

Abnormal Marks Heading into Friday

333 views

Nasdaq futures are pricing a gap down heading into Friday. The index continued lower after trending lower Thursday. The action featured an elevated range but printed on extremely abnormal volume—well over the 60k second sigma mark. Price managed to push down below the open gap from 07/09 and briefly poke below the swing low before finding buyers. Sellers could be seen defending Thursday’s range and rolling price over as we head into the open.

The economic docket is light this summer Friday, with Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday was a trend day down in market profile context. Such a day type is considered a ‘risk free’ entry into the following session meaning expectation is we exceed the trend day’s range by at least a tick the following session. The day started with a gap down followed by an opening sell drive. Price spent some time negotiating the 4400 century mark before initiating a fresh leg lower to close the 07/10 open gap at 4409.

Our contextual sub indices of the Nasdaq are interesting here. We saw the anticipated flush lower in semiconductors, but the Nasdsaq Transportation index is well off its recent lows. This divergence is a feather in the bull cap.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for any early excitement to quickly fizzle into Friday summer trade. Today is monthly option expiration day, and the most important action is pinning both longs and shorts down. Look for buyers to attempt a move back up to 4363.50 overnight gap but struggle and roll over then take out overnight low 4328.75. Price continues exploring lower prices. Look for responsive buyers ahead of the 3/26 low at 4271.75 then a rip back into Thursday’s range to end the session.

Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, take out overnight low 4328.75 quick, then crickets, then a sharp reversal to close up near 4395.75 MCVPOC and/or 4400.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation—take out overnight low 4328.75 and accelerate to target the 3/26 low at 4271.75.

Hypo 4 strong push to close the overnight gap up to 4363.50 and then a pole climb up to 4400, churn, then initiative buyers push up to 4436.50.

Levels:08212015_NQ_VP

Chop and Erosion

347 views

Nadaq futures are down coming into Thursday after printing an abnormal session overnight.  News flow accelerated overnight as pundits generously offered reasons for market moves.  The overnight range is 51.5 points thus far, well beyond the second sigma threshold on elevated volume.  During globex price briefly pushed up to about the midpoint of yesterday before rolling over and taking out yesterday’s low and pressing deep into last week’s range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out and the initial reaction is buying.

There’s a big data dump scheduled for 10am including Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day started gap down outside of Tuesday’s range and pushed lower before responsive buyers showed up.  Post FOMC minutes buyers turned initiative and close the overnight gap up to 4543.25 then dried up and selling back to the mean ensued.

Neutral days are sessions where the high and low of the first hour of trade (initial balance) are breached.  They suggest higher time frame posturing and often occur at/near inflection points.  This one occurred in the middle of the range so it is difficult to gain an inflection point insight from it.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push into the overnight inventory.  Look for them to struggle to close the gap up at 4503.75 then sellers resume exploring lower.  Sellers target overnight low 4461.50.  Buyers need to defend 4456 otherwise look for a test below last Wednesday’s low at 4431.25.  Stretch target is 4400 century mark.

Hypo 2 sellers work in early buy struggle to capture 4456.  Responsive buyers push the overnight gap up to 4503.75 shut then set their sights on overnight high 4513.  Look for responsive sellers around 4520.

Hypo 3, chop and erosion.  Tight range trade in bottom quad of yesterday’s range with a slight downward bias.  Sellers capped at 4440 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

08202015_NQ_VP

Fed Minutes Wednesday: Premarket Nasdaq Round Up

336 views

Nasdaq futures are down a bit heading into Wednesday’s trade after an interesting overnight session. US markets followed China’s Shanghai Composite to an extent. Their index moved fast, falling more than 5% before reversing on rumors the People’s Bank of China could announce a 50-basis-point rate cut. Our session featured a slightly elevated range on normal volume. Price managed to push up above Tuesday’s mid briefly before rolling over and pushing deep into Monday’s trend day. Since then we are off the lows and the structure is balanced overall.

At 7am we had MBA Mortgage Applications and saw no reaction from the market. At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data was out and so far also is seeing a muted response. At 10:30am we have the weekly crude/gas/distillate inventory reports. However, investors are all eyes on The Fed who this afternoon (2pm ) will release Minutes from their July 28th-29th meeting. Participants will be parsing the language for any clues as to whether September will bring a rate hike.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The session was slow with a slight downward drift and methodical. Buyers pushed into the overnight inventory but were unable to close the open gap from Monday before sellers stepped in. Sellers then worked down to test the value area high zones of the well-established value area that was below.

Heading into today, we are trading right at the VPOC of the well-established value area. My primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4543.25. From there look for them to continue higher but stall ahead of overnight high 4552.25 and roll over. Then look for sellers to work down to 4511.50 then 4505.50.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower off the open, push down into 4505.75 and exceed it briefly before responsive buyers step in and two-way trade ensues.

These two hypos are before the FOMC minutes. I expect the morning shuffle then action to quiet down as we enter wait-and-see mode. Then I will use 3rd reaction analysis to assess direction into the weekend.

Levels:

08192015_NQ_VP

 

 

Big Magnet Below

350 views

Nasdaq futures are indicate slightly lower prices heading into Tuesday’s open. The overnight session featured and early push above Monday’s high print 4567.75 and up to the value area high established 8/10 before responsive sellers arrived and rolled the session over. The rest of the evening was spent working lower.

At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits were released. The initial reaction to the data is buying. Investors will starting thinking about tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC minutes soon and this may cause us to enter a holding pattern.

Yesterday we printed what resembles a triple distribution trend day. The directional price action was not vigorous enough to classify the day as a bona fide trend day, but still a high conviction day. Buyers managed to close the open gap from 8/10 at the end of the session. Expectation was to see the session high exceeded, if only by a tick, today. The question now is whether the market profile trend day rule was satisfied overnight, of in instead we will revisit the high again soon.

Aside from last Tuesday, Tuesday has been a quiet day in recent history. Therefore, heading into today’s session, my primary expectation is for a slow session. Look for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work higher. I am bearish however, thus I expect buyers to struggle to fill the overnight gap and price to roll over. There is a major value area below that I expect to behave like a magnet. Look for sellers to take out the overnight low then responsive buying from 4544.25 to 4535.

Hypo 2 buyers close the overnight gap 4564.75 and set their targets on overnight high 4573.50. Look for a continuation move up to 4592.75 then responsive sellers step in.

Hypo 3, liquidation takes hold and sellers push down to the VPOC at 4517.

Levels:

08182015_NQ_VP

Prepared for Lower Prices

432 views

Nasdaq futures are priced to start the week down a touch. The overnight session featured normal volume and range and printed a balanced market profile. Looking it a bit more closely at the auction shows a few interesting events. Price pushed higher initially, right up to where the surprise Thursday afternoon sellers showed up. Responsive selling was found again in the 4545 range. Price action is interesting to with the entire overnight session resembling a head and shoulders pattern.

The week kicks off with two low-impact economic events. At 10am the NAHB Housing Market Index data is due out, and at 4pm the Net Long-term TIC flows. Investors will soon shift their attention to Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC will release the minutes from their July 28th meeting.

Last week index traders were taken for a wild ride. Price started the week with a big gap up and buying pressure most of Monday. Toward the afternoon the market showed signs of rolling over and Tuesday and Wednesday morning featured hard selling. By lunch Wednesday sellers dried up and in their wake came buyers who pushed us back through the range and closed a major gap. Thursday and Friday were grinder sessions.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work back into the tape. Look for sellers to take out overnight low and target 4468.25. Look for buyers in this area and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4532.25. Look for buyers to continue working higher and take out overnight high 4546.25 to target 4572. Stretch target on the upside is the open gap at 4585.75.

Hypo 3 buyers sustain above 4500 and two way trade ensues south of 4540.

Levels:

08172015_NQ_VP

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