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New Month Fund Flows, Trump Inspired Hope Press NASDAQ To New Highs

NASDAQ future are coming into Wednesday, March 1st gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price held the Tuesday mid, then just after midnight rallied hard and to new highs.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in well above last week, and at 8:30am Personal Spending data was mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Sellers emerged shortly after the open, then became initiate during the New York lunch hour.  Price worked down to about Monday’s midpoint before responsive buyers emerged and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze up through overnight high 5369.50 to tag 5375 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 5375 setting up a trend up.

Hypo 3 seller work into the overnight inventory, down to 5350 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers push a full gap fill down to 5332 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Futures Calm as We Wrap Up February; Major Talk from Premier Trump on Deck

NASDAQ futures are coming into the last day of the second month under our new authoritarian regime flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the upper quadrant of Monday’s range on balanced trade.  At 8:30am GDP data was worse than expected, and at 9am the Case-Shiller Composite-20 data was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, then a 4- and 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Investors are likely to withhold major decisions, however, until after President Trump speaks to congress Tuesday night at 9pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price began the week gap down and after a brief spat of morning selling right down to last Friday’s naked volume point of control, buyers were back in control, slowly working price higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press higher, up through overnight high 5349.25 to tag 5354 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sustain trade above 5354 and probe all-time highs 5359.50.  Stretch target is 5375.

Hypo 3 press down through overnight low 5340.75 and trade down to about 5332.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation down to 5310.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Loses All Friday @RampCapitalLLC Gains Ahead of New Week

NASDAQ futures are heading into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session was balanced, overall.  Price went up and exceeded the Friday high before retracing most of the Friday afternoon ramp.  At 8:30am Durable Goods orders were pretty bad and by bad I mean well below expectations—especially Ex-Transportation.

Other economic events on the agenda today are Pending Home Sales at 10am, and a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, $34B and $28B respectively.

Last week we essentially marked time.  Prices drifted sideways after gapping up into the holiday shortened week.  The chart below displays the weekly return of each major US index:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  It opened gap down and made a new low on the week before finding a strong responsive bid.  After some two-way for most of Friday, there was a strong afternoon ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5343.25 before we churn around at the 5340 level.  Eventually we go take out overnight high 5352.50 but look for sellers just above at 5353.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5331 and tag 5327 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down though 5325.50 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target 5310.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Sellers Emerge As We Wrap Up The Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower during the entire globex session, pressing to a new weekly low and deep into last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have New Home Sales and the final February reading of Confidence from the University of Michigan at 10am, then the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  After a morning spike to new all-time highs, sellers swiftly entered the market and reversed all of the week’s gains.  The move was faded by responsive buyers who stepped in near the value high from last Friday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and try to regain the Thursday range.  Look for them to succeed at reclaiming 5310.75 setting up a move to target 5320.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower, down to 5290.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work a gap fill up to 5333 then take out overnight high 5334.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation.  Sellers sustain trade below 5290 setting up a move to target 5278.50 then 5270.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Higher: Slow and Steady

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a small gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up beyond all-time highs overnight and is sustaining the gains as we head into the open.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims came in mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Purchase index at 9am, crude oil inventories at 11am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  An early move lower could not take out the Tuesday low and we began working higher, eventually extending to a new all-time high in a very mild manner.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5350.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5346.75. Look for buyers down around 5341 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through 5358.25 and sustain trade above it, setting up a rally into open air.  No stretch targets available.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work the weekly gap fill down to 5325.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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The Highs Are Weak Heading into Fed Minutes Wednesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Tuesday range overnight but also managed to form a double/weak high at 5353.75.  At 7am MBA Mortgage data was released.

Also on the economic docket today we have Existing Home sales at 10am, the US Treasury is auctioning off $13B worth of 2-year floating rate notes, then at 1pm they’ll auction $34B worth of 5-year notes.

At 2pm the FOMC Minutes will be released from the February 1st meeting.  Traders down at the CME are currently pricing in a 17.7% chance of a rate hike when the Fed next meets on March 15th.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The gap down to start the holiday shortened week was greeted with buying.  Buyers pressed to new all-time highs before price retraced down through the daily mid.  We churned through the NYC lunch then ramped higher at end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to work up through overnight high/weak high 5353.75 to tag measured move target 5358.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5337.25 and tag 5333 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down and close the weekly gap down at 5325.25.  Look for buyers just below at 5322.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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President’s Day Rally Extends into First Official Trading Day of Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the progress made during Globex on Monday which means we are coming into the first real trading day of the week gap up.

The economic calendar is interesting today.  At 9:45am we’ll hear from Markit and their reading of Manufacturing and Service PMI.  Then, at 11:30am lots of short duration debt is being auctioned off.  The 4-week, 3-month, and 6-month T-bills will be auctioned by the US Treasury—$34B, $28B, and $35B respectively.  Then at 1pm a 2-year Note auction.  There’s some Fed speak today, but not from anyone important.

Last week US markets worked higher for the second consecutive strong week.  Nearly uninterrupted, see below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down and the morning featured a buying drive.  Then buying continued all day long, right up to the end of the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 5331.75.  From here look for a move to close the weekly gap down at 5325.25.  Look for buyers down at 5322.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press off the open, take out overnight high 5341.50 then probe above President’s Day high 5345.50 and into open air briefly before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 rally continues, stretch target up at 5358.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Lower Heading into Friday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Thursday low briefly before recovering and settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light as we wrap up the week.  At 10am Leading Indicators data is out, and at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.  There are no other economic events.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After an early spike took prices to new highs, sellers made two hard rotations lower before we marked time for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5301.  From here we take out overnight high 5303.25.  Look for sellers up at 5308.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5286.75 and continue lower, down to 5278.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5270 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

*REVISION: This post originally stated that the Snapchat IPO was today, February 17th.  It has since been updated.

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Trump Stock Market Rally Continues; Day After Trend Day Context Applies

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price made new all-time highs before settling into two-way trade along the unchanged line.  At 8:30am Housing Starts data were below expectations, Building Permits above expectations, Initial/Continuing jobless claims data worse than expected, and Philadelphia Fed data was much better than expected.

The only other economic event on the docket today is a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  Steady buying all day from open-to-close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 5313.50 and continue exploring higher prices—open air.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5304.50.  Look for buyers down at 5295.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a move down to 5279 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Wave of Selling Hits NASDAQ after Making New Highs Overnight

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new all-time highs overnight before retracing much of the gains.  Then a second wave of selling came into the market just after 8am.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data came out in-line with expectations and Advance Retail Sales data was better than expected.

Beware Janet Yellen’s Semi-annual Testimony to the House of Representatives, which begins at 10am.  We also have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening gap down sellers made a move to take out the Monday low but stalled out.  Then, as Yellen was taking questions from the Senate Banking Committee, prices began to rise, pressing up through the entire daily range.  The rally accelerated into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5276.  Look for sellers up at 5278.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 strong buyers close overnight gap 5276 then sustain trade above 5279 setting up a move through overnight high 5285.  Continue exploring open air above.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5265.25 and find buyers just below at 5264 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 selling liquidation triggered by sustaining trade below 5263.25, sending price down to close the gap at 5227.  Stretch target is 5251.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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