Monday, December 5, 2016
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Market Profile

NASDAQ Launches Higher on Extreme Overnight Session

A police officer fires tear gas during clashes in Rome, Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2010. Outside parliament, thousands of demonstrators marched, smashed shop windows, destroyed bank ATMs and set at least three vehicles on fire. At one point they even entered a bank, prompting staffers to try to barricade themselves inside. Police fired tear gas as the protesters neared Berlusconi's residence. Premier Silvio Berlusconi won back-to-back votes of confidence in the Italian parliament Tuesday to survive one of the toughest tests of his political life. But he was left with a razor-thin majority that will make it hard for him to govern effectively. (AP Photo/Pier Paolo Cito)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range.  Price worked down into the 11/14 range before finding a strong responsive bid and trading up into last Thursday’s trend down.

The economic agenda is light to start the first full week of December.  At 11:30am we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction.

Last week the NASDAQ was under pressure while the Dow worked higher:12042016_indexperf

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day.  Price poked just below the Thursday low before revealing a strong responsive bidder.  However, said buyers were unable to press a range extension ahead of the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into Friday’s high 4759 which sets up a move to take out overnight high 4776.75 to target 4786.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers regain Friday range and close the gap down to 4736.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

12052016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

12052016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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Strong Non-farm Payroll Data Emboldens Investors: They Bought The Dip

hold-mel

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked down through the Thursday low before finding a bid ahead of the 11/14 open gap.  At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected:

USA Unemployment Rate for Nov 4.60% vs 4.90% Est; Prior 4.90%
USA Non-farm Payrolls for Nov 178.0K vs 175.0K Est; Prior 161.0K

Third reaction yielded a buy signal off the data.

The only other economic event today is Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  Price opened gap down and drove lower.  The selling lasted all session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4707.25 to target the open gap at 4695.25.  Look for buyers down at 4694.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4738.50 and trade up to 4760 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers reverse Thursday, leaving a globex swing low behind, trade all the way up to the Wednesday gap 4808.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

12022016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

120232016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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December Trading Is Underway; Here’s Everything You Need To Know About The NASDAQ

santarobot

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, December 1st flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Wednesday low and tagged the composite VPOC before settling into balance.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data were out but investors are more keen on tomorrow morning’s Nonfarm payroll reading.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

According to Exodus December is historically a positive month for the NASDAQ (per the QQQ ETF) however the average return of +0.92% includes 10 years of down months and only 7 years where it went higher.  Likely skewing the data is 1999 when the QQQ returned 24.32% in full, dot com bubble glory.

qqq-december-seasonality-2016

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  After opening slight gap up sellers pressed hard into the tape early on and continued selling throughout the afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4805 to tag the 4800 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling works down to 4768.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 4827.50 to target 4829.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up into the Wednesday trend down, trading up to the midpoint around 4852.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

12012016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

120132016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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The Turkey Rally Continues: Hump Day NASDAQ Roundup

geico-camel-on-hump-day-large-7

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Tuesday midpoint on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out well below last week’s reading.  Then at 8:15am ADP Employmenty data was stronger than expected, and at 8:30am Personal Consumption Expenditure data was inline with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Option Addict noted a longer-term technical pattern that he perceives as bullish via past observation.  Click here to check it out!

Yesterday we formed a double distribution trend up before falling back down to the lower distribution by market close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a more to take out overnight high 4885.50and continue higher to 4891 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through Tuesday high 4897.75 to target the 4900 century mark.  Stretch targets are 4917.75 and 4931.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4868.25 and target 4866.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 stronger sellers work down to 4856.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

11302016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

113032016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Accepting Presidential Rally; Settling into Highs Nicely

protestsss

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Monday range on balanced trade.  At 8:30am GDP data were released, better-than-expected across the board, knocking the market about 4 points lower.

Also on the economic docket today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The range extension up was met by strong responsive selling; the sellers were strong enough to print an excess high in the morning and defend their territory again in the afternoon (rather aggressively, like emotional ape).  After giving back most of the days’ progress, the NASDAQ formed a little ramp higher into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 4872.25 and push into the emotional seller by testing above Monday high 4879.75 and targeting the open gap at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4856.25 and target 4839.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers trigger a liquidation down to 4811.50.

Levels:

11292016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

112932016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Probes Pre-Thanksgiving Prices; Finds Bidder

fatman-turkey

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, probing prethanksgiving levels before finding a bidder and recovering back into Friday prices.

The economic calendar starts off slow today with only 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week saw most indices trend higher.  The NASDAQ peaked out Tuesday then consolidated.  For last week, here are the performances of each major index:

11272016_indexperf

On Friday the NASDAQ formed a normal variation up but closed right on session high giving the day a slightly more bullish-than-neutral look.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4870.  From here they target the Tuesday gap at 4875 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up to 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4842.75 and find buyers just below at 4840 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

11282016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

112832016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

 

Comments »

The Day Is Short and The High Is Weak

leadsweak

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher in a balanced session.  At 8:30am Advance Trade Goods Balance and Business Inventories were released and had no impact on prices.

There are no other economic events on the calendar today, however USA markets will close at 1:15pm today, allowing participants to enjoy their family and perhaps fuel the Black Friday consumerism machine.

On Tuesday we opened gap up and printed a weak high before going into balance and drifting into posturing Wednesday of sorts where price worked hard lower early on only to drift sideways into Thanksgiving.  The drift became one of the upward variety during Thanksgiving.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4850.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4842 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4866.75 to target the open gap up at 4875 then continue higher to take out the weak high 4884.75 and target the other open gap at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 somehow a liquidation triggers.  Price sustains below 4839 setting up a move to target the open gap down at 4808.25.

Levels:

11252016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

112532016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Lower; Yellen and The Fed on Deck

trump-yellen-yeee

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, and as we approach cash open the market is probing its Tuesday low.  At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders were much stronger than expected and Initial/Continuing jobless claims were inline with expectations.

The key event today comes at 2pm when the FOMC will release Minutes from their November 1-2 meeting.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap up we printed a weak, double high at 4884.75 before going range extension down.  Responsive buyers (responsive relative to Tuesday open, initiative relative to Monday close) defended the Monday high and two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push the Monday gap fill down to 4853.25.  Buyers show up here and work up though the Tuesday weak high 4884.75 to target the open gap up at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4875 then take out 4888 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target 4900 century mark.  Stretch target is 4918.

Hypo 3 sellers trigger a liquidation after a gap-and-go lower sustains trade below 4850 setting up a move to target 4833.25.

Levels:

11232016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
112332016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »

NASDAQ Walks Higher Overnight Like Majestic Turkey

walkingturkeys

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, right up to the 10/25 session low (current swing high date) before finding a responsive seller.

The economic calendar is light today.  At 11:30am we have a 4-week T-bill auction and at 1pm a 5-year Note auction.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  After a gap up to start the week, buyers drove the market higher.  A responsive seller showed up right around where the strong sellers existed back on 11/10, but said seller was ultimately overrun and squeezed into the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and test the Monday high 4862.  Buyers defend up here and we work higher to take out overnight high 4881.50 and target 4884.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap fill down to 4853.25 then take out overnight low 4853.  Look for buyers down at 4850 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger selling pushes the market back down to 4833 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 trend up, take out overnight high 4881.50 and target the open gap at 4888.  Consolidate above these prices before a second leg up to 4917.75.

Levels:

11222016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

11222016_nq_mp

Comments »

NASDAQ Gap Up into The Holiday Shortened Week

nyse-xmas

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Friday range in balanced trade which is giving way to buying as we approach USA cash open.

The economic calendar is light today with only 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Last week featured a Monday of selling followed by a rally for the remainder of the week.  The Dow lagged behind and the Russell lead.  Here is the performance of each major USA index last week:

11202016_indexperf

On Friday, an early probe higher discovered responsive sellers on the NASDAQ and once it pushed down to its CVPOC at 4808 it spent the rest of the day in a churn around those prices.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4804.25.  A probe below last Friday’s low 4803 reveals responsive buyers and two way trade ensues around the value at 4809.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, make a push above Friday high 4840.50 and target 4846.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers push up to 4870.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers fill overnight gap 4808.25, breach overnight/Friday lows 4803 and trigger a liquidation down to 4768 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:
11212016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

11212016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »