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NASDAQ Futures Stable into Last Full Week on May

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in a stable manner, holding inside last Friday’s range.

The economic calendar is light today.  We only have to be aware of the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.  Also, a reminder, there are FOMC Minutes out Wednesday afternoon.

Last week US markets worked higher through Tuesday before liquidating hard ahead of the Wednesday open, based off politics.  The selling continued through all of Wednesday, then we spent the rest of the week working back up-and-into the news driven move.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and a small drive higher before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5635.50 then continues lower, down through overnight low 5648.75 and continuing lower, down to close the gap at 5629.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5665.25 and slowly work higher, up to 5700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press a liquidation down to 5563.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Here’s Your Thursday Edition of NASDAQ Midday Roundup

NASDAQ futures came into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower and our current swing low, just above a gap left behind on April 26th, occurred during extended trading hours, this is contextually bearish.

Market profiles are ugly, which means day-trading opportunities are elevated, and also means the higher time frame is interacting with the markets.  Key /NQ_F Levels, and ugly profiles [out-of-balance] are pictured below:

We had some economic statistics this morning.  What’s interesting about an out-of-balance market is economic non-events like Initial/Continuing Jobless claims, which haven’t moved the market for months, suddenly impact prices. Both Philly Fed and Initial/Continuing claims were better-than-expected and the market rallied shortly after.

We have a ‘news driven’ framework to trade around, given that the overall consensus among investors is that the selling seen all day Wednesday was attributed to the actions being taken by U.S. Intelligence Agencies and the White House.  Our primary expectation is for the market to ‘return to the scene of the crime’ or check back to where the initial reaction occurred.

The scene of the crime gap, volume profiles, and measured moves are pictured below:

Part of what goes into my daily planning is what I call Switchboard.  It is my ‘all things considered’ spreadsheet, which takes everything discussed above, and as objectively as possible codes it into a trading bias.

Considering everything discussed above, Switchboard is currently neutral. See below:

You may notice the June Fed Rate decision is already on our radar.  Per the CME Fed futures, there is currently a 64.6% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike on June 14th, see below:

Heading into the afternoon and evening, my primary expectation is for this ugly profile to start taking shape, with value around 5605.  Looking to buy below and sell above, working the neutral bias until more information is made available.

Remember we’re talking NASDAQ futures, June expiry.

Trade’em’well

 

 

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Extreme Trading Overnight Sees NASDAQ Lower into Wednesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  All the upside achieved Monday/Tuesday was reversed during extended trade before two way trade ensued.  At 7am the MBA Mortgage applications data was worse than last week.

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.  Also, at 11am the New York Fed will release its Household Debt and Credit report.  This report will likely contain major implications of a June rate hike.

Investors are currently pricing in a 69.2% probability of a rate hike on June 14th, according the CME’s Fed Fund futures.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Price worked lower early on, closing the overnight gap reversing and traversing the entire daily range and going range extension up.  Buyers then added a bit more near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower, down to 5676 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling pushes down through 5670, setting up a move to 5659.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5724.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Begins Tuesday at Record High

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Monday range until about 6:30am, then it made new record highs.  As we approach the open, the market is sustaining the gains.  At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits data was issued.

Also on the docket today we have Industrial Production at 9:15am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  There was a morning rally, then two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher, up to 5722.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers sustain trade above 5722.75 setting up a trend day.

Hypo 3 sellers push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5701 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Starts Option Expiration Week Flat

NASDAQ futures are coming into the third week of May flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price made new record highs during Globex trade, but returned to flat soon after.

The economic calendar is light all week and today is no different.  At 10am we have the Housing Market Index, at 11:30 the US Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills, $39B and $33B respectively.  Also at 4pm we have Long-term TIC flows.

Last week markets worked sideways more-or-less, with the NASDAQ on a slight drift higher.  The performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up.  After a choppy initial balance [first hour of trade] sellers briefly pushed price range extension down, but the market caught a bid before closing the overnight gap and traversed the entire daily range eventually close at record highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5683.50 and trade down to 5676.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5700.25 and explore open air.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5670 before two way, balance trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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After A Brief Loose Moment, NASDAQ Stabilized, Friday Has Markings of A Rally

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was contained to the upper half of Thursday’s range during extended trade.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales data both came out worse than expected.

Also on the docket today we have the preliminary May reading of Confidence by the University of Michigan at 10am followed by the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap down and sellers pushing down near the Monday/weekly lows.  Down here, in the late morning, the market found a responsive bid.  We spent the rest of the day rallying, with price stalling just 1-tick shy of the overnight gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight high 5672.50 then continue higher to close the gap at 5675. Look for sellers up at 5677.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press to new weekly high, up to 5688.50 then sustain trade above it, setting up a rally into the weekend.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 5656.50 triggering a liquidation down to 5637.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Seeks and Finds A Bid During Extended Trade

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, in a one-way auction lower, trading down to the open gap from Monday’s close before turning higher.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was better than expected.

There are no other economic events scheduled for today.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  A neutral day the day after a normal day, interesting.  Price opened gap up and sellers pushed off the open, ultimately stalling before filling the gap down at 5655 which was the primary hypothesis from Wednesday morning’s trading report.  Price then traversed the entire daily range to make a new high of day, going neutral, before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5675.  Action gets choppy from here, but we manage to take out overnight high 5676.50 before it is all said and done.

Hypo 2 we push down through overnight low 5655 and find a bid just below, at 5652.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5639.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moved:

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Chaos and Confusion Keep The NASDAQ Bid Up into Wednesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was seen treading water overnight.  We held the Tuesday range without much volatility present.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came out better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, the US Treasury is auctioning off $23B worth of 10-year Notes at 1pm, and there is a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a quite rare normal day which is anything but normal.  According to my (needs to be updated) study, normal days only occur 5.66% of the time.  The day began with a gap up beyond the Monday range.  Then a strong rally pushed through, one that fizzled out a few ticks ahead of our measured move target.  The dynamic morning action set a wide initial balance and we spent the rest of the day trading inside it.  Investors were not initiating fresh risk for the rest of the day, as if they were expecting news.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down through overnight low 5667.75 and close the gap down to 5655.  Look for buyers down at 5652.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5682.25 and probe all-time highs at 5687.75.  Open air above, rally ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers push down to 5639.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Logs Updated with Tuesday Trading Levels And Events

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, slowly and nonstop, positioning the market to new all-time highs as we approach cash open.

The economic calendar is light today.  We have Wholesale Inventories at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The week began flat and we spent the day treading water with a slight upward drift.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher early on, probing the open air above.  Look for sellers up at 5688.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5655 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5650.75.  Look for buyers down at 5648 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5621.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Sold in May Has Not Occurred [Yet] Strong Jobs Report Extends Rally into Friday Morning

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held range for most of the evening and then broke through the Thursday high around 8:30am just after a strong jobs report.

USA Nonfarm Payrolls for Apr 211.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 98.0K

Unemployment Rate for Apr 4.40% vs 4.60% Est; Prior 4.50%

Also on the economic docket today we have the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, Yellen giving a low-impact speech at Brown University at 1:30pm, then Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price held onto upper balance, sort of churning around in the value zone (pictured below).

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5626.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers reject a move back into Thursday’s range 5631 and we work up through overnight high 5639.50 then close the gap up at 5640.  Trade sustains above that level setting up a rally into the weekend.

Hypo 3 sellers close gap down to 5626.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5612.50.  Look for buyers down at 5595 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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