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Slow and steady lower overnight, here is the Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price campaigned lower during extended trade, working down near the Wednesday low but ultimately holding prior day range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims came out below expectations and Philly Fed came out better-than-expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have leading indicators are 10am followed by a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap up which was quickly filled, then we continued to drive lower, working back down into the midpoint of Tuesday’s trend up before finding a strong responsive bid and spending the rest of the day auctioning higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6843.  Look for sellers up at 6845.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 6856.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, sustaining trade below 6800 to set up a move down to 6761 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Day after trend day, here is the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume—a trait unseen in globex for many months.  Price was balanced overnight, briefly taking out Tuesday’s high before settling into balance.

The economic calendar is light today—crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed Beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up and and out of range which led to a gap-and-go higher.  The rest of the session was spent auctioning higher, offering little in the way of a pullback.

Trend day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6828.50.  From here we cotninue lower, poking down below overnight low 6816.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade us down to 6809.75 before two way trade.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 6858.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 6883.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ slowly drifts higher after Netflix earnings, here is the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up, out of range after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and extreme range.  Price worked higher all night, at first rapidly after Netflix reported better-than-expected earnings and guided higher Monday evening, then slowly throughout the night to levels unseen since late March.  At 8:30am housing starts and building permits both came in better-than-expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing production at 9:15am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and IBM earnings after-market-close.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began gap up in range.  Sellers worked the overnight gap nearly closed before a strong buy stepped in. Sellers worked a full gap fill later in the morning, eventually taking out overnight low by a few ticks before a responsive bid stepped in.  We traversed the entire daily range and eventually closed at session high.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher.  Price trades up to 6774.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6712.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 6698.50.  Look for sellers down at 6694 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6774.75 setting up a move to target 6814.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ gap up into Monday again, here is today’s trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was choppy overnight, creating a balanced profile while trading inside of the Friday range.  At 8:30am advance retail sales data came out better-than-expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have business inventories at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week markets worked sideways-to-higher in choppy, volatile action.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap up to new high-of-week.  Sellers drove lower closing the gap and eventually taking out the Thursday low before responsive buyers stepped in.  Sellers became initiative later in the day, making a new session low before the week’s end.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6659.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6642.25.  Look for buyers down at 6639.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 6698.  Look for sellers up at 6708.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6708.25 setting up a move to target 6750.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Today’s gap is up, here is the Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  The first non-extreme globex session in several weeks.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out below expectations.

There are no other important economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began gap down in-range, we filled with a hard move up early on.  Then we went range extension up before traversing down through the entire daily range and closing near the lows.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up through Wednesday high 6663.25.  Look for sellers up at 6666 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 6592 setting up  a move to take out overnight low 6585.  Look for buyers down at 6578.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6666 setting up a move to target 6700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures slide lower, hold Tuesday range, here is today’s trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price gradually slipped lower overnight, offering little retrace, putting nearly all the overnight inventory short.  At 8:30am consumer price index data was in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Keep an eye on Capitol Hill for information pertaining to Facebook and how testimony from the company’s 33 year-old CEO Mark Zuckerberg is received.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began gap up, inside Monday’s big range.  An attempt lower was made early on but responsive buyers stepped in ahead of the full gap fill.  Buyers became initiative ahead of New York lunch, working us range extension up but stalling ahead of Monday’s high.  We then went range extension down, but not by much, putting us neutral.  THEN we traversed the entire range and went range extension up AGAIN, eventually closing near session high, earning the neutral extreme designation.

There was a mini-failed auction.  The Tuesday high-of-day poked just beyond last Thursday’s high, last Thursday, April 5th.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up at 6623.75 setting up a move to take out overnight high 6627.75 before two-way trade ensues ahead of the 2pm FOMC minutes.  Use third reaction after FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 6550.25 then continue lower, down to 6524 before two-way trade ensues ahead of the 2pm FOMC minutes.  Use third reaction after FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a gap fill down to 6495.75, look for buyers ahead of 6475.75 before two-way trade ensues ahead of the 2pm FOMC minutes.  Use third reaction after FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Extreme markets persist, here is the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, twice up through the Monday RTH high while coming into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Monday midpoint.

The economic calendar is light today—a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  It looks like the only reason it was able to earn the extreme designation is because it went neutral (RE down after being RE up already) so late in the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher.  Look for buyers to step in ahead of 6561.75 and work up through overnight high 6624.75.  Seller up at 6639.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory, down to 6624.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 6496.75 then take out overnight low 6471.75 setting up a move to close the Friday gap down at 6451.50.  This could trigger a liquidation down to 6400 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Bullish into the weekend, barely

Just wanted to drop a quick note on this busy Friday.

Since we are in the business of publicly disclosing premium Exodus signals, I will have you know today is day 9 of an oversold ‘buy’ alert.  The alert occurred on Friday, March 23rd at end-of-day.

Here is the performance of each major index since then

The phrase, “lies, damned lies, and statistics” is in play here.  An Exodus oversold signal is not confirmed until after-market-close which means you can not take action until the following trading day, which in this case was Monday, the 26th.

We had a big gap up into Monday.  I had about as good an entry as I could hope for that Monday, opting to see the morning action and step in after lunch, and just before an explosive afternoon rally.  The position was validated by the market.

That being said, my $TNA position, which is an ETF representing 3x the returns of the Russell 2000, is flat.

Because I always trade every single Exodus hybrid oversold signal exactly how the system is designed, I have to hold the trade until close-of-business next Monday.  I will be pressing this long into the weekend.

Bearish facts:  Breadth is low, currently only about 26% of stocks are up according to Exodus.  NASDAQ Transports are at range low, as are Semiconductors, NASDAQ net issues are also low, -75 (that is out of 100, so confirming the low Exodus breadth).  We are RE down on /nq_f.  Hybrid Chg % which shows an intermediate term bias, flipped bearish on Monday, April 2.

Bullish facts: NYSE TICK is trending higher into afternoon.  There is a ledge formation on nq_f that we are likely to spill over:

Utter nonsense that is affecting the market that we have no factual proof is bullish or bearish: TRADE WARS, Jerome Powell talking at 1:30pm.

That is all I have.  I have been working the long side since about 11:30am after the primary hypo nailed the short-of-the-day.

The key to any success in a process driven approach to trading, business, or life, is sticking to the plan.  The plan is to remain bullish until end-of-Monday, therefore I am.

Easy-peasy

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Shorts not trapped, soft NFP days blows through, prepare for Powell to talk markets lower

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price dove lower Thursday evening before finding balance long the mid-point of Wednesday’s trend up.  At 8:30am non-farm payroll data was well below expectations.  Some chop came through, it appears third reaction was up, but little has changed since before the numbers.

There is more focus on trade wars with China.

Also on the economic docket today we have Fed chair Jerome Powell giving a speech on economic conditions at 1:30pm and Consumer credit data comes out at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap up.  Sellers pushed into the overnight inventory and were at first not able to completely close the overnight gap.  Buyers had a shot to squeeze higher and they didn’t.  This was the tell, in hindsight.  The rest of the day was choppy and balanced.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 6559.  Seller reject a move back into the Thursday range here around 6659 and we go lower, down through overnight low 6485.25.  Look for buyers down at 6443 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers drive lower off the open, down through overnight low 6485.25.  Look for buyers down at 6443 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 6602.50 setting up a move up through overnight high 6611.25.  Look for sellers up at 6636.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Trapped shorts? Here is the Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher during the evening, eventually coming into balance along last Thursday’s session high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering along overnight high and outside of the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed and trade balance came out worse than expected.

There are no other material economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began gap down and after a brief two-way auction could not take out the weekly lows strong buyers stepped in and closed the overnight gap.  Then a strong secondary wave of initiative buying came in after New York lunch and rallied the market into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher.  Trapped shorts are squeezed higher, up through overnight high 6654.50.  We trade up to 6700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 6722.50 before two way trade.

Hypo 3 even stronger buyers trade up to 6750 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers work into the overnight inventory and regain the Wednesday range 6591.75.  They continue lower, down through overnight low 6581.  Look for buyers down at 6573.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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