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Perpetual Bull Reasserts Dominance: NASDAQ Regain Lost Ground Overnight

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, reversing much of the Monday morning gap higher.  Then buyers aggressively defended an attempt back into last Friday’s range, sending the index spiraling higher.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out lower than last week.

Also on the docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am. The energy markets have been volatile alongside the drought-stricken middle east, so investors are likely to pay closer attention to the report.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  Price briefly went range extension up Tuesday morning after beginning the day with a two-way auction.  Then, the entire range was reversed, pushing the index neutral.  From then onward, and despite some attempts higher from the buyers, the daily midpoint was a wall.  We closed near session low, earning the neutral extreme designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5733.50.  However, an attempt down through Tuesday low 5729 is rejected by buyers, sending up up through overnight high 5741.50.  Look for sellers up at 5744.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5741.50 and sustain trade above 5744.50 setting up a move to target 5758.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through overnight low 5699 and target the weekly gap left open down at 5684.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Summertime: NASDAQ Drifts into Tuesday Flat

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, briefly poking above the Monday high before settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light all week.  Today is no exception.  The U.S. Treasury is auctioning off 52-week and 4-week bills at 11:30am.  There are no other economic events.  Fed’s Robert Kaplan will speak at 3pm, but investors are likely to ignore him.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The week began with a strong pro gap and buyers drove higher off the open.  Buyers then became initiative later in the day, springing higher only to be knocked back by sellers twice.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move higher, up to 5800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 5750 before two way trade.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 5717.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 5800, triggering a pole climb up to 5822.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Flat: The June Contract Is Nearly Expired

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up through the Thursday high, briefly overnight before settling into balanced trade.  At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits data were below expectations.

Also on the agenda today we have the June preliminary reading of Confidence out of the University of Michigan.  There are no other major economic events.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and sellers working down through the Monday low.  Just a touch below Monday’s low buyers stepped in.  We then spent the rest of the day trading higher.  As a result, it appears we have failed auctions on both sides of the tape now.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5720 and close the Wednesday gap up at 5733 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press up to 5767.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5695.75 and buyers are found just below at 5681.50.

Hypo 4 stronger sellers send trade down to 5656.50 before two way trade ensues.

*Note: all levels are in reference to the June contract despite all active trading moving to the September contract.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Pole Climb Underway Ahead of of The Fed

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight and has been nudging up into the ‘pole climb’ area on market profile.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out positive but lower than last week.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales both came out below expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Business Inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and most importantly an FOMC rate decision at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Day began with a gap up, sellers worked into overnight inventory and closed the gap.  An excess low formed, and we spent the rest of the day bidding higher, ultimately traversing the entire day’s range and closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up to 5800 before we pause ahead of the FOMC decision.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 5759.50 then continue down though overnight low 5739.50. Look for buyers down at 5728.75 ahead of the FOMC decision.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press to 5703 before FOMC.

Use third reaction analysis after the FOMC decision to determine direction into the afternoon and the rest of the week.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Everything Negative About Yesterday Is Gone; Prosperity Returns To The NASDAQ Exchange

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, slow and steady, hardly taking any time to trade sideways or lower.

The economic calendar is dead.  Like you probably do not need to trade today.  There’s a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 3o-year bond auction at 1pm.

That is it, and everyone will likely at some point today start marking time ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC decision.

However, there is the potential for a pole climb, which is a way of describing a steady ascent up a thin and slippery surface (believe it or not).  In this case, the ‘surface’ is how our market profile is currently printed.  You can see what is being described as a pole on the colorful chart at the bottom of this blog entry.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  People woke up freaked out.  All their fears about the tech sector had come to life and the NASDAQ was careening lower again, for a second day.  Price closed a gap left behind around 5/19, went a touch lower, then found a responsive bid.  We spent the rest of the day auctioning higher.  Buyers struggled to regain the low-end of balance formed Friday afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher.  Price works up to 5760 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5720.  They continue lower, down through overnight low 5706.75.  Look for a bid around 5700 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 pole climb.  Price sustains above 5760 triggering an uninterrupted move up to 5800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Burn Theta Burn: NASDAQ Starts Option Expiration Week Down A Quick 50 Points

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week with a pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower, starting around midnight, trading down near last Friday’s low before settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light today.  Mostly Treasury auctions, see below:

  • 11am, 6-month T-bill, $33bln
  • 11:30am, 3-year Note, $24bln
  • 12pm, 3-mont T-bill, $39bln
  • 1pm, 10-year Note, $20bln

We also have a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Last week major indices worked sideways until Friday.  On Friday a heavy wave of selling pushed through the market, hitting the NASDAQ particularly hard.  Last week’s performance of each major U.S. index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down.  Price pushed down to levels not seen since late-May before a sharp responsive bid came into the market.  We did not trend the entire day, but a significant portion of the day was spent trending lower.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5748.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 5670 and continue lower, down to 5651.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5615.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers ‘pole climb’ up to 5800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Lazy Bull: NASDAQ Heads into Friday a Touch Higher Than Monday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held range.  Extended trade was calm.

Economic calendar’s empty.

Yesterday we printed a bloody normal day.  It was so boring.  No range extension.  An impulsive wave of selling hit the tape early, formed a wide initial balance, and buyers spent the rest of the day slowly reclaiming the losses.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move up through overnight high 5895.50.  This sets up a test of all-time highs, currently printed at 5903.  We break through then two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers, so strong that they drive price up to 5934 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers, working through overnight low 5869.  Buyers down near 5863 then two way trade.

Last Sunday’s Exodus Strategy Session on point so far:

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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All Reason For Concern Cleared; NASDAQ Back on The Highs

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, in two phases of discovery, unmitigated by selling pressure, ultimately making its way back to record highs.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

There are no other economic events today.  There may be some political events which are likely only distractions. If there not, it will become evident on the tape.  No sense in paying attention to political theater.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Recall, on Tuesday, it was the opposite, neutral extreme down.  There was selling pressure yesterday, but by the late afternoon a strong responsive bid stepped in and we spent the rest of the day auctioning higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 5934 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 5887 before stalling out, leaving an open gap behind before we resume trading higher, up through overnight high 5897.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 5880.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ on Shaky Ground Heading into Wednesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Tuesday range during extended trade, slowly retracing the impulsive sell-move seen late Tuesday afternoon.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications was a huge number.  Housing is hot.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30 am.  This data may be looked at more closely amid the negative news flowing out of  Persia (Iranian gunners in their ‘Parliament’ building and Qatar being eliminated by its brethren).  We also have consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down.  Price worked higher all morning, and after briefly going range extension up, to new record highs, we fell back into the midpoint.

Like a potential failed auction.

Then, late in the day the failed auction confirmed when a hard sell pushed through the marketplace.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and closer the gap down to 5863.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5858.75 and 5857.25 before two way trade trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher, up to 5887.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down though 5853.25 triggering a liquidation down to 5838.

***Note: profiles are thin in both directions, today’s action could be fast***

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Lower Heading into 6.6

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, down through the daily low from Monday, and found a slight bid as we head into cash open.

The economic calendar is extremely light today.  JOLTS job openings will be announced at 10am and there is a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down.  Buyers worked into the overnight inventory and closed the gap then continued higher, briefly pressing range extension up before we settled into a slow, two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5881.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5883.25.  Look for sellers up at 5882.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out at 5876.75 and fall down through overnight low 5864.50.  Look for buyers down at 5850 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through overnight low 5838 and trigger a liquidation down to 5838 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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