Sunday, January 22, 2017
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NASDAQ Back Inside High Value Ahead of Several Low-Impact Economic Events

nyse-traders-old

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, continually rising until finding sellers up near value high from late-last week.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications came in worse than last week.  At 8:30am CPI data was in-line with expectations.  It appears earnings from Goldman Sachs $GS may have been the early market-moving event, however.

Also on the economic docket today we have Industrial/Manufacturing production at 9:15am, NAHB housing market index at 10am, Fed chair Yellen is speaking in San Fransisco at 3pm, and long term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After beginning the holiday shortened week gap down we experienced an early selling drive.  However buyers stepped in and defended the upper-quad of last Thursday’s trend day and we worked range extension up.  Then price settled into two-way balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5040.50.  From here we take out overnight low 5037.25.  Look for buyers ahead of 5030 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work us down to 5021.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 5057.25 to target 5059.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 5059.50 setting up a trend day.  Stretch target is 5106.

Levels:

01182017_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01182017_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

 

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NASDAQ Begins Holiday Shortened Week Gap Down; Trump Inauguration Looms on The Horizon

MONTGOMERY, AL - MARCH 25:  Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. speaking before crowd of 25,000 Selma To Montgomery, Alabama civil rights marchers, in front of Montgomery, Alabama state capital building. On March 25, 1965 in Montgomery, Alabama. (Photo by Stephen F. Somerstein/Getty Images)

NASDAQ futures are heading into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked lower, pressing down into the upper-quad of last Thursday’s range before balancing out.

The economic calendar is light today, but be aware there are multiple T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was dominated by the NASDAQ while the other major U.S. indices marked time.  The performance of each major index can be seen below:

01152017_IndexPerf

On Friday The NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Price drove higher Friday morning after opening gap up then churned sideways before a late-day thrust higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5056.  Some struggle here before we continue higher to close the gap up to 5061.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers show up ahead of 5050.75 and work lower, down through overnight low 5030 setting up a move to target 5027 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger selling down to 5021.25 before two way trade.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 5059 setting up a fresh leg higher.  Stretch target is 5106.

Levels:

01172017_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
01172017_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Robots Continue To Bid NASDAQ Heading into Friday

robotsOFfutureamam

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight in the same manner it ascended since about 11am Thursday—a slow, steady, churn higher.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came in below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories at 10am, the preliminary January reading of U. of Michigan confidence at 10am, and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed the second consecutive neutral extreme up.  After starting the day gap down sellers drove lower, pressing down around the 5000 century mark before a bid stepped in.  WE then spent the rest of the day algorithmically grinding higher.  Interesting note, value never shifted higher on the day, instead remaining down in the lower quardrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5035.25.  This sets up a move down through overnight low 5034.  Look for bidders around 5015 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 we press up and close the Thursday gap at 5046.50 then continue higher, up to 5054 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 a short squeeze takes hold after we sustain trade above 5058 and we trend higher into the weekend.

Levels:

01132017_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01132017_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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First Real Overnight Gap of The Week is Down

night-traders-80s

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price poked above the Wednesday high briefly before falling lower.  The market is still holding high balance.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After briefly going range extension up Wednesday morning, sellers made a push lower during the Donald Trump press conference.  This traded right down to value area low 5007.75 where responsive buyers stepped in.  Said buyers traversed the entire daily range and the day closed at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5046.50 setting up a move to target 5054 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 5058..

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5028 and work lower to target the 5000 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

01122017_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01122017_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Strong NASDAQ Cruising into Wednesday; Sustains Highs Through Mid-week

hogs

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, holding the Tuesday range while essentially marking time.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  It had notes of a subtle double distribution trend up, primarilly because of a strong pre-lunch surge higher.  The move made it up just two-ticks shy of the Exodus strategy session high before ultimately fading into end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5038.25.  From here price continues higher, up to 5050 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller work down through overnight low 5023.75 setting up a move to target 5016.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight range, from 5040 to 5025 in a do nothing kind of drifting day.

Levels:

01112017_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01112017_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Futures Preserve Last Week’s Gains; Balance Out And Hover Near All-Time Highs

warplanes

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume on a balanced session that held the upper quadrant of last Friday’s trend day.

The economic calendar is light this week.  Today the only events are a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, then Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Last week we kicked off 2017 with a gap up that sellers could not press into.  Instead we spent the rest of the week trading higher, accented by a Friday trend day.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

01082017_indexperf

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5002.50 and test the 5000 level where buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 4982 before buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5017 and continue higher, up to 5020 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

01092017_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
01092017_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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Solid Non-Farm Payroll Data Keeps Bidders in The NASDAQ

President Barack Obama boards Air Force One at Norman Manley International Airport prior to departure from Kingston, Jamaica en route to Panama City, Panama, April 9, 2015.  (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, moving up beyond the Thursday high after a Non-farm payroll data came in better-than-expected:

Non-farm Payrolls for Dec 156.0K vs 178.0K Est; Prior 178.0K

Unemployment Rate for Dec 4.70% vs 4.70% Est; Prior 4.60%

The economic calendar is otherwise light today.  The Factory and Durable Goods orders data is out at 10am and Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After opening flat, a strong drive higher began the day and buyers became initiative during the afternoon, extending price higher and closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4961.25.  From there, buyers step in and press through overnight high 4970 and continue higher, up to 4984 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 44958.25.  Look for buyers down at 4957 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work down to 4944.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

01062017_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01062017_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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ADP Employment Data Comes in Below Expectations; NASDAQ Set To Begin Thursday Lower

nyse-trader-trumppence

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced and held the Wednesday range overnight.  The ADP Employment data at 8:15am came out below expectations while Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data at 8:30am was mixed.  However, investors are more likely to react to the upcoming Non-farm Payroll data which is due out Friday morning.

Also on the economic docket today we have Non-Manufacturing Composite data at 10am and crude oil inventory at 11am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher which initially faded after trading 1-tick above last Thursday’s high.  However, sellers became initiative before lunchtime and pressed range extension up, reclaiming the well-developed value zone established late last year.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 4920.50 and close the open gap down at 4907.  Look for buyers at the 4907 zone and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4933 before working up through overnight high 4936.50.  Price continues higher, up to 4953.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press up beyond 4953.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a rally to 4984.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

01042017_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01042017_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Starts The Year Gap Up; Big T-Bill Auction on Deck

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 8, 2016.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first trading day of 2017 gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  When the contracts opened for trade Monday evening they were gap up, and price continued pressing higher, effectively erasing much of the Friday losses before settling into two-way trade.

On the economic docket today we have Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing at 10am.  At 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning 4-week, 3-month, 6-month, and 52-week Bills.  Price is likely to find direction after these T-bills are auctioned off.

Last week was shortened by the observation of Christmas Day on Monday.  US markets rallied early Tuesday, but reversed by end of day.  The selling continued for the rest of the week.  Below is the performance of each major index last week:

01012017_indexperf

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  After opening gap up there was a strong morning drive lower.  Prices continued lower throughout most of the day, working just a few ticks below the 12/12 low before finding a bid and settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 4875.50.   Look for buyers down at 4769.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 work higher off the open, up through overnight high 4908 to target 4911.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 high pressure short squeeze up through 4911.50 to target 4933 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers press a full gap fill down to 4865.25 then probe below the Friday low 4850.  Look for buyers down at 4844.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

01032017_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01032017_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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Out of Pocket

hqdefault

Broadcasting note: I will be on the move today.  When I land in Texas, the land of steer and brown lakes, GOD willing, the NASDAQ will be near my lower target (see prior post) and I will scale a profit.  Otherwise, I will be plugged back in sometime this evening.

One can only spend so much time in the flat land of grey.  I am hunting powder, high atop the Rocky Mountains.

If anyone’s in Brek, HMU bruh!

 

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