Friday, June 24, 2016
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Market Profile

NASDAQ Compressing Ahead of BREXIT Vote; More Testimony from Yellen on Deck

encirccc

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session was balanced, holding the range set yesterday during regular trading hours.  At 7am we saw an uptick in MBA Mortgage Applications, the index was negative on the last read [act. 2.9% vs -2.4% prior].

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Index at 9am and Crude oil inventory data at 10:30am.  Janet Yellen will be on Capitol Hill for a second day, this time testifying to the House Financial Services Committee about monetary policy at 10am.

The BREXIT vote is tomorrow.  The market tipped its hand Sunday night, reacting as emphatically as it did to bookmakers offering better odds the voters will choose to remain part of the EU.  The reaction made it clear the market, overall, is waiting for this uncertainty to settle before choosing direction.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened gap up, drove higher briefly, went range extension down and closed the overnight gap, then pushed up through the range to go RE up, then settled back on the daily mean.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to make a little push off the open, a squeeze up to MCVPOC at 4425 before sellers come in and work the overnight gap fill down to 4400.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4400.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4393.75 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 3 a rally takes hold, pushes up through 4425 and sustains trade above it, setting up a move to 4442.25 then 4449.25.  Stretch target is open gap at 4458.50 .

Hypo 4 liquidation takes hold, pushes the market down below Monday’s low 4885 and closes the weekly gap down at 4359.

Levels:

06222016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06222016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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NASDAQ Throwing Violent Fits, But Ultimately Stuck Until the BREXIT Vote

number2

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight—initially with a burst of buying just after U.S. cash market close yesterday (which was faded) then by a slow march higher for the remainder of the evening.

Janet Yellen has to testify to the Senate Banking Committee about monetary policy today at 10am.  We have 4- and 52-week T-Bill auctions at 11:30am and a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The week began with a pro gap up and buyers drove price higher off the open.  Just after the first hour of trade, and rather briefly, the market went range extension up.  Shortly after strong responsive selling came in, first working price down through the daily range then accelerating the liquidation down into the open gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and test the 4400 century mark.  Look for buyers here and then a move to take out overnight high 4415.75.  Look for price to continue higher, up to 4429 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers complete a full gap fill down to 4389.50 then take out overnight low 4388.25 setting up a test of Monday’s low 4385.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4374.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out overnight high 4415.75 and sustain trade above 4429 setting up a move to target 4442.50 then 4450.

Levels:

06212016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06212016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Watch The Bond Auctions for NASDAQ Direction

bondi

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week pro gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session opened gap up and went into a slow up trend.  Price is already beyond the week’s upside measured move target, currently priced near last Thursday’s high.

See also – The BREMIAN Camp Reigns Glorious; Markets Set To Explode In a Cocaine Cloud on Open

On the economic docket today we have 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions happening at 11:30am and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week the NASDAQ worked lower.  There was a flash of upside after the FOMC rate decision that was ultimately faded.  The NASDAQ was the weakest index, however, while the other major indices saw bullish divergences into the end of the week.

Friday the NASDAQ opened gap down and sellers drove lower off the open.  A small rally took hold through lunch but was ultimately faded to end the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory a bit.  Look for a move down to test the 4400 century mark.  Look for responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to last week’s close) to step in at these prices and work us up through overnight high 4420.50.  Look for sellers up at 4424 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go.  Push up through 4424 early on setting up a move to target 4442.50.  Additional upside targets are 4450 then a stretch target of the open gap at 4458.50.

Hypo 3 full gap fill lower.  First sellers have to take out overnight low 4382.75.  Look for buyers to defend down at 4375.25 but ultimately they are overrun as the market continues lower to target gap fill down to 4359.

Look for the bond auctions around 11:30am to sort out any debates occurring at-or-near a major price level and to set the tone for the remainder of the day.

Levels:

06202016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measures moves:

06202016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Buyers Ultimately Hold The Line; NASDAQ Set To Cruise into The Weekend

holddoorheld

NASDASQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, initially overnight before finding sellers ahead of Wednesday’s high—the same region sellers defended during the initial spike higher post-FOMC rate decision.  Since then we have pushed lower, back down into the upper-quadrant of yesterday’s range.

On the economic docket today we have Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8:30am and Baker Hughes Rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The market opened gap down and sellers drove price lower off the open.  Then, just 1-tick below the 05/23 gap fill a strong responsive bid stepped in.  Just before NYC lunch a massive buy program hit at the NYSE.

That pushed the NASDAQ up through the daily mid.  Price then retraced lower one last time before a huge secondary thrust pushed us neutral.  Buyers tacked on an additional ramp higher late in the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4417.  From here they continue working higher to 4422.25 before sellers step in and push down through overnight low 4409.50.  Buyers are just below here and two way trade ensues.  In other words, marking time/chop.

Hypo 2 buyers close overnight gap up to 4417 then set their sights on overnight high 4432.50.  The continue higher to target 4442.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4409.50 off the open and go test the 4400 century mark.  Buyers defend and two way trade ensues, perhaps working up to close overnight gap 4417.

Hypo 4 strong selling pushes down through 4400 and sustains trade below it setting up a move to 4389.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

06172016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06172016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Bulls Fail To Defend Their Conviction; Sellers Reclaim Late-May Trend Day

hodor

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower, down through the lows set back on 05/24, a major reference day for the market.  Just below the 05/24 lows, around 3am, buyers showed up and two-way trade ensued.  At 8:30am Core CPI data came out inline [0.20% vs 0.20% est] and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations [4.70 vs 1.10 est].

Also on the economic docket today we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  NASDAQ opened gap up and after a slow opening auction sellers pushed the market range extension down.  Just after 2pm, after the FOMC rate decision, the market spiked to a new session high, putting the day into a neutral print.  After nearly an hour of grinding debate, sellers broke the market lower and close it near session low, thus morphing the neutral profile into a neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4404.75.  Look for sellers to defend this area aggressively and reverse the market.  We then work lower to take out overnight low 4374.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4367.25 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go, push down through overnight low 4374 early on and then sustain trade below 4367.25 setting up a liquidation down to 4350 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 44047.75 then take out overnight high 4409.  This sets up a move to target 4425.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

06162016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06162016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Here Are The Key NASDAQ Price Levels Heading into The FOMC Rate Decision

FILE - In this May 7, 2010, file photo traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York. The Dow Jones industrials'  1,000 point nosedive the day before, along with Europe's spreading debt crisis and fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, are turning up the heat on Congress to get the nation's financial house under control. Two senators have proposed requiring the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to scrutinize high-frequency trading and other computerized strategies that move buy and sell orders at blinding speeds, practices that may have contributed to Thursday's snowballing selloff.  (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the evening, then began steadily working higher early this morning.  Sellers were found just ahead of Monday’s midpoint and two-way trade ensued.  At 7am MBA mortgage were well below last week’s reading, -2.4% vs 9.3% the prior week.

There are several economic data points due out today, them most important being the 2pm FOMC rate decision.  At 9:15am Industrial/Manufacturing Inventory numbers will drop, at 10:30am crude oil inventories, and at 4pm Long-term TIC Flows.

See Also – Cashin: Markets Are Scared of BREXIT and German Bond Yields

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The market opened gap down and was met with strong responsive buying which took price up to Monday’s value before a strong seller came in and pushed us range extension down.  Bidders stepped in before lunch and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4418.25.  From here look for price to continue working lower and take out overnight low 4406.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4400 and two way trade to ensues ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 buyers step in ahead of 4420.75 and price takes out overnight high 4435.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4442.50 and two way trade to ensue ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, push up through 4435.75 adn target 4449.50 then the open gap up at 4458.50 ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Look for the 30 minutes after the Fed to provide market direction into the close of the week.

Levels:

06152016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06152016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Futures Continue The Slow Walk Lower

cash2

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The session was balanced, overall, but price continued the trajectory set last Thursday, which is lower.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came out slightly better than expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories at 10am and a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.  Also, the gravity of tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC rate decision is likely start altering the behavior of the market place—putting price into a wait-and-see range.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  We came into the week gap down and buyers made a spirited push off the open.  They struggled to sustain priced inside last Friday’s range, printing several excess highs.  The final blow came just after buyers pushed the market range extension up, by 2 points, then fell back down to daily mid.  Sellers stepped in and pushed us neutral.  After a another return to the daily mean, price pushed lower and closed on session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4418.25.  Look for responsive sellers up near 4430.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 4420 after closing overnight gap 4418.25 setting up a move to 4450.

Hypo 3 sellers defend ahead of 4418.25 setting up a move to target overnight low 4397.50 and triggering a liquidation down to 4367.25.

Levels:

06142016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06142016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »

Volatile Globex Session; Key Events and NASDAQ Levels

rooskis

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  The Globex session started with a gap down and price continued lower until just after midnight.  Price then rallied back up through overnight range but was unable to fill the gap.  Sellers then reemerged and pressed down through the entire range.  Around 8:30am share of Microsoft halted and they announced a cash deal to buy LinkedIn.  Heading into the open the market is on session low.

See Also: Microsoft to Aquire LinkedIn for $26.2 Billion, All Cash

The only events on the economic docket today are the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week the NASDAQ worked higher than churned sideways through Wednesday, despite the other major indices working higher.  Both Thursday and Friday the market opened gap down.  Friday was balanced until the end of the session when a sharp attempt lower was rejected by responsive buyers.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a shake-out push lower off the open, down to 4421.25 followed by a strong responsive bid higher.  Buyers work up to test last Friday’s low 4438.25.  Look for sellers to reject a move back into Friday’s range and the market to continue to probe lower, down to 4411.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory and regain 4438.25 early on setting up a move to target overnight high 4452.  Buyers then push a full gap fill up to 4458.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4458.50 early on and sustain trade above 4450, setting up a move to target 4470.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation, sellers push down through 411 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to the 4400 century mark.  If the century mark does not hold, then we could see a fast move down to 4367.

Levels:

06132016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06132016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

 

Comments »

Man in Black Pajamas Triggers NASDAQ Liquidation Overnight

U.S. Marine 2nd Lt. Daniel Mora, with the Provost Marshal's Office, advances through an obstacle course at the Jungle Warfare Training Center (JWTC) on Camp Gonsalves, Okinawa, Japan, Aug. 21, 2009. JWTC training shows service members how to become effective war fighters in a jungle environment by teaching them land navigation, small unit leadership, patrolling and obstacle maneuvering. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Leon M. Branchaud/Released)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal volume on slightly elevated range.  Price was balanced until about 3am when a half-hour’s worth of selling came into the market.

On the economic calendar today we have University of Michigan’s preliminary June reading of Confidence.  At 1pm Baker Hughes will report how many rigs they’ve counted, and at 2pm they will release a Monthly Budget Statement.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down, below Wednesday’s range, and worked higher off the open.  Then just before lunch sellers came in and pushed the market range extension down.  Just below 4500 a responsive bid stepped in and two way trade ensued (see hypo 2).

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to make a hard push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4511.75.  Look for responsive sellers right around here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push a half gap, stalling out just below the 4500 century mark.  Sellers then work lower to take out overnight low 4476.25 and find responsive buyers around 4470.75.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go down, take out 4470.75 early on then find a responsive bid around 4465 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation. Hard push down off the open then sustained trade below 4465 setting up a push down to 4420.75.

NOTE: All levels quoted above and shown below on Market Profile are for the June’16 contract despite most activity rolling forward to the September contract.

Levels:

06092016_NQ_MP_zoomedout

Levels (zoomed in):

06092016_NQ_MP_zoomedin

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06102016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »

NASDAQ Flirting With Major Liquidation Zone

hayack

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price slowly worked lower overnight, pushing the market down just below the lower bounds of value.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Household Change in Net Worth at 12pm and a 30-Year Bond Reopening auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day.  A bid sell push early in the session gave us a wide initial balance that would mark the day’s range through the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a flush off the open.  Sellers are aggressive in pushing the market lower, trading down to 4470.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the soft-handed overnight inventory but stall ahead of the open gap, finding sellers up at 4515.  From there the market works lower to take out overnight low 4502, finding responsive buyers just below the 4500 century mark and settling into two-way trade.

Hypo 3 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4518.75 then take out overnight high 4522.50.  Look for a move up to 4529 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

06092016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06092016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »