Monday, September 26, 2016
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Market Profile

Wall Street Cruises into Friday on Top

Matthew McConaughey is Mark Hanna in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, from Paramount Pictures and Red Granite Pictures.
TWOWS-00307

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday down a touch after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Thursday’s range in slow and balanced trade.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, a panel of Fed bankers speaking at noon, and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The market opened gap up to fresh highs and an early open auction gave way to more initiative buying.  Up near the Fibonacci measured move target sellers stepped in and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4886.50.  Look for a test above the Thursday high 4892.25, to to tag the 4900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers keep price below 4882 and work down through overnight low 4875.25.  They tag 4867 before finding buyers who balance the market into the weekend.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down and close Wednesday’s gap down to 4849.50.

Levels:

09232016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09232016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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New Market Highs Post FOMC Rate Decision

Traders call out trades on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, April 25, 2007, after the Dow Jones industrial average cracked the 13,000 mark for the first time. The Dow leapt to an intraday record of 13,036.99 within minutes of the market's open, with investors also buoyed by data that showed orders for durable goods -- costly and long-lasting manufactured items -- rose more than expected in March.  REUTERS/John Gress (UNITED STATES) - RTR1P16Q

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price has worked higher since 2am, rapidly at times, and managed to print a new all-time high price.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected.

But most investors were concerned with yesterday’s FOMC decision.  Yesterday the Fed left their key interest rate unchanged and hinted of a rate hike by year end.  The event sent markets higher.

Other economic events on the docket today include Existing Home Sales at 9am, Leading Indicators at 10am, and a 10-Year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening gap up and a 2-way auction sellers stepped in and close the overnight gap.  They 2-ticked Tuesday’s low before the market reversed.  Then, following the FOMC rate decision, third reaction analysis yielded the buy and price went trend up into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and work price down to 4853.  Buyers step in here and we work up through overnight high 4873.  Look for sellers at 4890.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, push up to 4890.50 and find sellers.  Balance ensues up here before a secondary push which continues trending higher.

Hypo 3 sellers complete a full gap fill down to 4849.50 then take out overnight low 4842.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

09222016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09222016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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FED DAY: NASDAQ Trading Levels

edison-inventing

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring an elevated range on normal volume.  Price probed near the week’s low before finding a buyer and pressing up near the week’s high before ultimately coming into balance.  At 7am MBA Mortgage application came in well below last week’s reading.

Today is Fed Day.  At 2pm they will release their rate decision.  Other than this major announcement, we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  It was a tight, range-bound day but it was controlled by sellers.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory, down to close the overnight gap at 4798 before finding a a buyers and marking time until the 2pm Fed announcement.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go.  They take out overnight high 4830.25 and work up to 4867 as we await the FOMC rate decision.

Hypo 3 strong selling closes overnight gap 4798 early and continues, down through overnight low 4788.50.  Look for buyers down at 4779 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 full on liquidation trigger.  There is a slip zone below 4779 that extends down to 4760.

Levels:

09212016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09212016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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Monday Sellers Neutralized in Steady Overnight Trade

chinaspray

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The session was balanced overall, with price holding Monday’s range and eventually working up through the midpoint of the weeks first day.  At 8:30am Housing Starts came in well below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  It was somewhat odd, however, because it started with a gap up and drive higher to new swing high.  Thus before we could begin trending lower we had to probe above the highs.  This is balance play.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for bulls to hold the 4800 level before working up through the overnight high 4815.50.  Look for choppy trade just above 4816 that eventually balances back into value around 4800.

Hypo 2 sellers work the gap fill down to 4794.75 setting up a move to take out overnight low 4790.  Buyers are just below here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 liquidation trigger.  After taking out overnight low 4790 price accelerates into the slip zone (see below).  Price works down to 4751.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:
09202016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09202016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »

NASDAQ Futures Make New High Overnight

drunk-traders

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher until about 4am, managing to make a new swing higher before settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar today features NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, and both the 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions are taking place at 11:30am.

Last week opened hard gap down then trended higher all Monday.  Then, while the other indices marked time, the NASDAQ continued to rally, fueled by the success of Apple and the failure of Samsung. Here is the performance of each major index last week:

09182016_indexperf

Last Friday we printed a normal variation up, holding the upper quad of Thursday’s trend day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4813.75.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 4810.75.  Buyers are found just below here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers show up around 4821 and work us up through overnight high 4841.75.  Look for a move to target the measured level at 4867 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 Liquidation triggers, price works down through 4810 and sets up a move to target 4800 before we balance out.

Levels:

09192016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09192016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQs Cruise into Friday After Calm Night Session

bruce-chopper-pulp-f

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume on a balanced session that held the upper quadrant of yesterday’s trend day.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index came out slightly higher than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am and Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  Price opened gap up and drove higher, briefly resting during the lunch period before continuing to campaign higher prices.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to close the overnight gap up to 4814 then take out overnight high 4814.25 setting up a move to target the open gap up at 4829.  We stall here, just ahead of the swing higher before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 is everything mentioned in Hypo 1 except we continue working higher, up through 4839.50 to make a new higher into the weekend.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through overnight low 4793.50 triggering a liquidation down to 4780.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full on liquidation.  Sellers sustain trade below 4780 setting up a move to target 4750 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

09162016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09162016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Reverses Losses; Works Higher in Active Overnight Session

FILE - In this May 7, 2010, file photo traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York. The Dow Jones industrials'  1,000 point nosedive the day before, along with Europe's spreading debt crisis and fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, are turning up the heat on Congress to get the nation's financial house under control. Two senators have proposed requiring the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to scrutinize high-frequency trading and other computerized strategies that move buy and sell orders at blinding speeds, practices that may have contributed to Thursday's snowballing selloff.  (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price tested both sides of our current value, initially working lower last night before reversing all the losses and more early morning.  Since then we have settled near the middle balance.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data was below expectation, Initial/Continuing Jobless claims were better than expected, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing activity posted a huge beat.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Existing Home Sales at 9am, Industrial Production at 9:15am, and Business Inventories at 10am.

None of these economic events are likely to have a substantial impact on the tape, but it makes sense to have them on your radar.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened flat and buyers quickly pushed higher, closing the Monday gap before finding a responsive seller.  We spent the rest of the session working lower but never pressing below the morning low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4728.50.  Look for buyers here who work higher and take out overnight high 4754.85 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers close overnight gap 4728.50 then continue lower to take out overnight low 4716.25.  Look for buyers down at 4708.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap and go, take out overnight high 4754.75 early then test above Monday/Wednesday highs 4767.75 – 4768.75.  This sets up a move to target the gap at 4792.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

09152016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09152016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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Volume Disappears; NASDAQ Back To Normal

trader-calm

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight but was contained inside Tuesday’s range.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and pushed lower for most of the morning.  By lunchtime a strong responsive bid was found, right at the Monday midpoint, then two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the low-volume overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4724 and continue lower to take out overnight low 4719.25.  Price is choppy today but bulls defend ahead of Tuesday’s session low 4695.75 as two-way trade ensues.  Theta burn, for the call option holders.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 4740.75 and continue working higher to close Monday’s gap at 4762.  Responsive sellers show up here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 the longer term up trend reasserts itself.  Strong buyers take out overnight high 4740.75, close the gap up to 4762 then sustain trade above 4764.75 setting up a move to target the open gap up at 4792.25.

Levels:

09142016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09142016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »

NASDAQ Futures Abnormally Active Ahead of Tuesday

drunk-traders

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring abnormal (2nd sigma) range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight and erased the afternoon portion of yesterday’s trend day.  Price also formed a weak low.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 52-week T-bills up for auction at 11:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and the Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  Price opened gap down to start the week, right on the MCVPOC from July at 4653.25.  Buyers bought the dip and became initiative well before lunch.  They continued initiating new risk for the resk of the session, ending the day up near the open print from last Friday’s trend down, effectively erasing Friday’s price action.

*Note – Friday was the 3rd biggest daily decline in the last 10 years.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push down through overnight low 4727.75 which opens the door for a test of 4702.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into overnight inventory, up to 4748 before finding responsive sellers who work back down to overnight low 4727.75.  Look for buyers around 4713.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through all the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4762 then set their sights on overnight high 4767.50.  This sets up a continued move higher to 4792.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 hard liquidation.  Sellers sustain trade below 4700 setting up a move to test down to 4640.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

09132016_biasbook

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09132016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »

NASDAQ Starts The Week Lower; Here’s What You Need To Know

traders

NASDAQ futures are coming into option expiration week gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on an elevated range.  Price worked lower Sunday night, working into the 07/20 range and below this week’s ATR band before finding a strong responsive bid.  Since then the market has rallied about 30 points.

There are several Federal Reserve members speaking today, but everyone seems most concerned about Brainard talking economic outlook in Chicago at 1:15pm.  Also on the docket today we have several bond auctions; at 11:30am both 3- and 6-month T-bills will be auctions, and the 3- and 10-year Note auctions are set for 1pm.

Last week was a holiday shortened week.  On Monday the markets were closed in observation of Labor Day.  The week began with a day-and-a-half of buying followed by a reversal just after making new highs.  Thursday saw a gap down that never filled.  Then Friday a gap down morphed into a trend day down.

Here’s the performance of each major index last week:

09112016_indexperf

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and attempt to reclaim Friday’s range.  Look for sellers around 4685 who push the market down and out of Friday’s range, back down to the MCVPOC around 4653.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers reclaim Friday’s range and sustain trade above 4685 setting up a move to target 4708.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push hard off the open and work back down to overnight low 4625.25 and continue lower to target the open gap down at 4605.

Levels:

09122016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09122016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »