Friday, May 6, 2016
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Market Profile

Sellers Methodically Working The Tape Lower

johnny2

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Friday of the month lower because it’s May.  The globex session featured normal range and selling as the downward price action has been orderly.  Price managed to push to a new swing low after 8:30am when Non-Farm payroll data came in much worse than expected.

See also: Huge Payrolls Miss: Non-farm Payrolls Come in at 160k, Well Below Estimate of 207k

The only other economic events scheduled for today are the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. A choppy open gave way to buyers pushing higher.  Their try was quickly thwarted, and sellers managed to push down through the entire daily range and extend lower.  We ended the session chopping below the key 4300 level. The selling has been methodical so far, with volatility hardly inching higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a hard move lower off the open, fast, that quickly stalls out around 4265.  Look for responsive buyers to then start working price back up to 4300 where we chop heading into the weekend.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and work back up to 4300 gap.  From here they set their sights on overnight high 4302.75. Buyers rally price through the close, up to 4324.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation.  Sellers sustain price below 4265 setting up a liquidation down to 4200.

Levels:

05062016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

05062016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »

The NASDAQ Looks Like A Mexican Standoff

mexistand

NASDAQ futures are starting the morning out gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher through most of Globex before finding sellers at the same level as yesterday’s Globex session–near Tuesday’s value area high.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out better than expected.  The initial reaction is muted.  Investors are likely waiting to hear tomorrow morning’s Non-farm Payroll report before reacting, especially with our current auction context (see blog title).

There are no other scheduled economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  A brief attempt at working higher to close the gap down was thwarted when sellers stepped in.  Price then worked lower, slowly and methodically, to take out last Friday’s low (swing low) briefly before price was bid back up into our short term balance (see blog title).

Heading into today my primary expectation is for chop.  Look for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4309.25 before finding responsive buyers and two way trade ensuing south of 4330.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher off the open and close Tuesday gap up at 4335.25.  Buyers continue higher and take out overnight high 4342.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4343 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through the gap fill, below 4309.25 setting up a move to test the 4300 century mark.  Look for two-way trade to ensue

Hypo 4 liquidation snap.  Price breaks down through 4300 sending the market down to 4275.75 before two way trade ensues.

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Levels:

05052016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

05052016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Futures Continue To Probe Lower in Desperate Attempt To Find Buyers

carforsale

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring an elevated range on normal volume.  A balanced session fave way to selling around 4am sending price down near last month’s lows.  At 8:15am ADP Employment came in below expectations.  Also at 8:30am Trade Balance data was slightly better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Factory/Durable Goods Orders and Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite at 10am.  At 10:30am we will hear the crude oil build up numbers.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down and an early attempt to fill it was swiftly rejected around 4350 by sellers.  Sellers struggled to become initiative, however, and buyers pushed a low-volume range extension up.  This was faded back down into balance in the afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to probe the lows.  Look for overnight low 4299.25 to be taken out early on and a test down to 4292.75 where buyers step in and two way trade ensues below 4310.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go trend day down.  Sellers take out 4292.75 early on and sustain trade below it setting up a move down to 4281.75.  Sellers continue working lower to target the open gap down at 4275.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 responsive buyers step in and work into the overnight inventory.  They work higher but stall before the overnight gap, finding sellers up at 4325.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full gap fill up to 4335.25 then a continued move up to 4343 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

05042016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

05042016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

 

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Longs Liquidated in Thin Overnight Session

roddyroddy

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring an elevated range on normal volume.  Price held upper value for a portion of the evening before sellers pushed into the market and retraced the entire low-volume rally from yesterday’s cash session before coming into balance near Monday’s opening print.  The resulting profile resembled a lowercase b–the type of profile we typically see during a long liquidation.

Long liquidations are often temporary phenomena driven by triggering stop orders.

On the economic docket today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up and the market found buyers just after the gap was filled.  The rest of the morning featured a tight range.  Just after lunchtime buyers became initiative and pushed the market higher, stalling just ahead of the 04/28 gap at 4382.75.

Heading into today my primary expectatino is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work price up to 4350.  Look for sellers to defend here and set their sights on overnight low 4331.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4321.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through 4350 and sustain trade above it, triggering a pole climb to close overnight gap up to 4369.50.  Buyers then take out overnight high 4374.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4371.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work a gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 4331 early on.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4318.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

05032016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

05032016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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May Comes in Like A Lamb

lambby

NASDAQ futures are heading into the new month gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held last Friday’s range on a balanced session and is approaching session high as US open approaches.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing at 10am.  Also both the 3- and 6-month T-bills will be auctioned at 11:30am.

Last week price worked lower.  Wednesday featured a pro gap down, and Thursday’s attempt to fill it was rejected–continuing the descent lower.  Friday morning featured selling, but by lunchtime the market was in balance and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4335.50.  Look for buyers to defend around here then work higher to target overnight high 4344.25.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4368 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go higher, take out overnight high 4344.25 early then sustain trade above 4368 setting up a move to target 4387.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap down to 4335.50 then take out overnight low 4318.  They continue lower to target the 4300 century mark.  Look for buyers down at 4293 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

05022016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

05022016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »

Pajama Traders Dig into The Amazon Bid

maninblackmajamas

NASDAQ futures are heading into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price action was balanced but is now pushing lower as we head into cash open, taking back most of the spike seen after Amazon reported strong earnings yesterday AMC.  At 8:30am Personal Spending data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have U of Michigan confidence at 10am and Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The session started off trending higher before sellers rejected a move back up into Tuesday’s range.  Sellers then traversed the entire daily range and accelerated down through Wednesday’s range.  During settlement Amazon reported strong earnings and price spiked up, nearly touching the day’s midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push lower and test below yesterday’s low 4346.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4343 then two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory (the pajama traders) and work price higher to close the overnight gap up to 4383.75.  Buyers then take out overnight high 4391.25.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4398.25 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 selling drive early on takes out 4343 and sustains trade below it, setting up a move to target 4321.75 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch targets to the downside are 4300 then 4293.

Levels:

04292016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04292016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

 

Comments »

Preparing for The Amazon [Earnings]

AMAZON

NASDAQ futures are heading into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was pushing higher after the bell yesterday afternoon–perhaps some carryover from the FOMC rally, but also with the help of strong earnings from Facebook–and price briefly reclaimed Tuesday’s range.  However just before midnight price spiked lower on disappointing actions from the Bank of Japan, pushing price back down to Wednesday’s midpoint before two-way trade ensued.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out better than expected and first quarter GDP results were below expectation.  The initial reaction is muted, sideways.

See Also: Bank of Japan Holds Off on New Stimulus, Nikkei And Futures Donkey-Punched With Vigor

Also on the economic docket today we have a 2-year floating rate auction at 11:30am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.  After the bell Amazon is reporting earnings.  Amazon is the last major tech player to report.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The session opened gap down after disappointing Apple earnings.  An early attempt to buy the gap down was thwarted when sellers stepped in and continued working price lower.  Just after 10:30am the market went range extension down and printed a failed auction before coming into balance ahead of the FOMC rate decision.  3rd reaction analysis yielded the buy and we had a strong post-FOMC rally to close out at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and attempt a gap fill up to 4425.  Responsive sellers step in here and begin working price lower, setting their sights on overnight low 4392.25.  Just below overnight low responsive buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open and take out overnight low 4392.25 and continue lower to 4382.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers close overnight gap up to 4425 then become initiative, working price up through overnight high 4442.25.  Patriotism kicks in and buyers continue higher to target 4450.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4466.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

04282016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04282016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Longs Liquidated Overnight: Hump Day Economic Schedule Is Packed

yellencolalge

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring an elevated range on normal volume.  Price made a fast move lower after the Apple earnings then came into balance.  The resulting market profile has a b-shape, which suggests longs were liquidated but sellers never became initiative.  Thus it could be only a temporary phenomenon.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Apps came in at -4.1% well below last month’s 1.3% read.  At 8:30am Advance Trade Goods balance put a slight bid in the market when the data came out better than the consensus forecast.  US trade deficit for market was-$56.9 billion vs -$62.8B expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, the FOMC rate decision at 2pm, and Facebook earnings after market close.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  While the other major indices are resilient–flat and/or higher–the NASDAQ spent most of the session working lower.  After opening gap up, sellers pushed the overnight gap fill lower before buyers made an early attempt to move price higher.  This was met with a strong responsive offer that sent the market down below Monday’s low.  A brief responsive bid stepped in around lunchtime but was overrun in the afternoon when sellers became initiative.  The end of the session featured a strong ramp higher, before the Apple earnings eventually sent the market careening lower.

See Also: The Chinese Billionaire Was Right: Apple…OBSOLETE!

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work the market higher and test back up to yesterday’s session low 4431.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4440.75 then two way trade ensues as we wait for the FOMC rate decision.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 4400.75 setting up a move to test 4387.25 before two way trade ensues ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low 4400.75 then stall out.  We settle into two way trade from 4420 – 4400 awaiting the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 4 strong buyers press higher to close overnight gap up to 4453.25 then take out overnight high 4454.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4466.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

04272016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04272016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »

NASDAQ Attempts Rally into Fed Rate Decision; at Risk of Stalling

oldPLANE

NASDAQ futures are set to begin Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, up near last Friday’s high, before settling back into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in below expectations.  The initial reaction is a soft sale.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, 52- and 4-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Price worked lower after an early spurt higher closed the overnight gap.  Just after going range extension down the NASDAQ printed a failed auction.  After a two-way dispute regarding the matter, responsive buyers stepped in and worked price back up through the daily range and closed out the market at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for two-way chop.  Look for an early move lower to close the overnight gap down to 4472.50. Sellers continue lower to take out overnight low 4467.50 before finding responsive buyers down at 4448.75 and two way trade ensuing.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4489.75 early on setting up a move to test 4493 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4489.75 then sustain trade above 4493 setting up a move to test the 4500 century mark.

Levels:

04262016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04262016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »

Little Uptick in Volatility To Start The Week

BRONXTALE

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring normal volume on an elevated range.  Price held Friday’s low during a series of downward rotations last night before settling into balance.  The entire session was spent below last Friday’s range midpoint.

The economic calendar starts quiet this week, but has several major events toward the end.  For today we have New Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week the NASDAQ diverged lower while the other indices worked higher.  The Russell 2000 in particular showed strength despite the heavy selling in the NASDAQ.  Last Friday saw the NASDAQ sharply lower during the morning session before finding a responsive bid ahead of the 04/12 low and closing the week out bouncing back toward the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work lower and take out overnight low 4436.  This sets up a test of Friday’s low 4431 which triggers a liquidation all the way down to 4402.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4466.25 before finding responsive sellers and working lower to take out overnight low 4436 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4466.25 then continue working higher to take out overnight high 4479.75.  Look for buyers to continue probing higher, up to 4492.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

04252016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

04252016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »