NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price briefly took out the Monday low overnight before rallying back up near the Monday midpoint.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Monday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 4-and 8-week T-bill auction at 1pm, and a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down near last Friday’s low followed by a drive lower.  Sellers drove clean through the composite VPOC 6950, continuing to probe lower prices until about 11:45am when a responsive bid stepped in at the weekly ATR band 6825.75.  From then onward the market balanced, forming a wide balance from about 6900-6840.  Price moved back down near session low as we ended the day.

Overall the current market profile has a lowercase letter-b shape which is indicative of a long liquidation—a temporary phenomenon often seen near swing low (see market profile chart below).

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6836.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6801.25.  Look for buyers just below at 6795 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 long liquidation continues, stronger sellers drive us down to 6718.50 before two way trade ensues.

hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, sloppy low.  Buyers work up through overnight high 6909.25 setting up a move to target the composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price first rotated higher overnight, trading up near Friday’s cash high before discovering strong responsive sellers around midnight.  From then-onward we’ve rotated lower unidirectionally.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering along last Friday’s low.

There are no important economic events today.

Last week the markets were strong.  Early Monday the NASDAQ had standout weakness.  Big gap up Wednesday across the board and trend higher.  The Russell marked time, chopping along at its composite volume point of control.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down and what appeared to be a trend lower, with sellers controlling the tape completely until about 2:30pm.  Responsive sellers stepped in at last Tuesday’s naked VPOC 6988.50 and we spiked back up to the daily midpoint.  Despite buyers working back to the daily midpoint, the week ended with sellers again pushing on the tape.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7052.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7103.75.  Look for sellers up at 7117.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 6985.75 setting up a move to tag the composite VPOC at 6950.  Look for buyers down at 6925.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7141.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly poking beyond the Wednesday trend high early in the globex session.  As we approach cash open price is hovering at the low-end of the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s trend up.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better-than-expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have an uncommon Thursday FOMC rate decision at 2pm.  The gambling halls in Chicago are currently predicting a 92.8% probability of no change to the Fed’s current benchmark borrowing rate of 2.25%.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up above last week’s hig, so we were out of balance.  After an initial two-way auction was unable to reclaim last week’s range buyers stepped in and became initiative, driving price higher. Price paused briefly after closing the 10/22 open gap.  Then late in the session a fresh leg higher took shape, trending up into the close and ending at session high.

Trend day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7218.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7231.  Look for sellers up at 7263.50 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for third reaction after the FOMC minutes to drive direction into the close.

Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, trading down through overnight low 7162 which sets up a move to target 7109.75 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for third reaction after the FOMC minutes to drive direction into the close.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7300 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for third reaction after the FOMC minutes to drive direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, breaking through the Tuesday high around 10pm eastern and chopping up above it until about 3am when another leg higher sent prices to levels unseen since two Wednesday’s back when the market went trend down.  As we approach cash open prices is about 50 points off the globex high and hovering above Tuesday’s high.

On the economic agenda today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a small gap down.  Buyers drove higher off the open, printing a dynamic initial balance.  Then we spent much of the morning/early afternoon inside the IB.  It started to look like another normal day until late in the session when sellers managed to briefly push the market range extension down.  This however triggered a failed auction and we ramped higher into the bell—eventually settling above the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt a move back into Tuesday’s high 7034.75.  Buyers reject the attempt sending us up through overnight high 7122.25.  Look for sellers up at 7156 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a full gap fill down to 7016.50 setting up a move down through overnight ow 6971.50.  Look for buyers down at the composite VPOC 6945.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, sustained trade above 7156 sends us up to 7183.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, sustaining trade for most of Globex above the Monday midpoint.  As we approach cash open price is hovering just above the midpoint.

On the economic agenda today we have an 8- and 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 10-year Note auction at 1pm.  Also, the USA midterm elections are today, the results of these elections are likely to take shape later this evening.

Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but normal.  They only occur about 5% of the time on the NASDAQ.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower, leaving the last Friday gap behind at 6979.  The drive lower poked down into the open air left behind last Wednesday before discovering a responsive bid late in the initial balance. Then we spent the rest of the session chopping along the lower quadrant before ramping higher late in the session.  Overall the action was contained inside of the first hour of trade.

Normal day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6947.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6969.50 setting up a move to target the open gap at 6979.  Look for sellers up at 6988.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers step in right at Monday close 6947 and work us lower, down through overnight low 6906.75.  Look for buyers down at the 6900 century mark and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down through Monday low 6865 setting my a move to target 6832.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profile, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked sideways, chopping along the bottom-side of Friday’s midpoint and sticking inside the Friday range for the duration of Globex.  As we approach cash open price is sticking inside Friday’s thick VPOC at about 6965.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing/services/composite data at 10am, a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week began gap up across the board.  Monday morning featured heavy selling that managed to form a sharp excess low late in the session.  During the Monday selloff the Russell 2000 was demonstrating relative strength.  The Russell carried relative strength for the rest of the week and the other major indices started to form a bounce Tuesday.  Then Wednesday we saw a big gap up that had some continued buying through Thursday.  Friday managed to discover some responsive sellers and we ended the week with the NASDAQ and Russell sitting at their respective composite VPOCs while the Dow and S&P both have composite VPOCs much lower.  Dow and S&P did manage to hold their Wednesday gap into the weekend.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down that buyers quickly resolved with an open spike higher.  Said spike briefly took prices to a new weekly high before responsive sellers stepped in.  The sellers erased the morning spike then became initiative, pressing price down briefly below the Wednesday gap range before we ultimately settled into balance near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6979.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6998.50.  Look for sellers around 7000 and a tight choppy two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers trade down through overnight low 6944.75.  Look for buyers down at 6900 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 6873 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, balancing out above the daily midpoint while trading inside the Wednesday range.  As we approach cash open, prices are hovering right along the Wednesday midpoint.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic agenda today we have both construction spending and ISM employment/manufacturing data at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a pro-gap up, which erased what was left of Monday’s trend down.  Buyers rejected us up-and-out of the Monday range early on and defended an early attempt to push neutral after going range extension up shortly after 10:30am.  Then another buyer rotation worked through, pushing to a new high-of-session before we succumbed to selling late in the session.  The daily VPOC never managed to shift lower despite the afternoon selling.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6957.  Buyers do not allow the overnight low 6951 to be taken out.  Instead we work up through overnight high 7015.75 setting up a move to target 7050 before two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.

Hypo 2 tighter chop.  We close the overnight gap 6957 then go down through overnight low 6951.  We then chop along the composite VPOC at 6945.50 as we await Apple earnings.

Hypo 3 strong buyers thrust higher on the open, sustaining trade above Wednesday high 7039.25 early on, setting up a move to target 7087.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, wrestling with Tuesday’s high for several hours before breaking loose around 3am and setting out to discover higher prices.  After the bell Tuesday afternoon Facebook earnings were better than expected despite missing top-line revenue expectations. The news wires had a hard time making sense of the earnings/conference call, but as we approach cash open FB shares are priced to gap up by about 7%.  At 8:15am ADP employment data came out stronger than expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.  Also be aware that the largest NASDAQ component, Apple, is set to report earnings Thursday, after market close.  As their earnings draw near, it is possible that we may enter a holding pattern as investors wait to see the information.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down.  During the open we traded down to 6666 before discovering a responsive bid.  The market went range extension up just before lunchtime.  The rest of the session was choppy but eventually closed near high of day.  It was an inside day, inside Monday’s trend down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, up to the composite VPOC at 6945.50.  From here we continue higher, up to 6976.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers drive up to 7000.  Look for sellers up at 7023.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6814. Look for buyers down at 6800 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price chopped sideways overnight, along the bottom-side of the Monday midpoint.  As we approach cash open sellers are pressing us lower, into the bottom quadrant of the Monday range.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began gap up and the morning auction showed early signs of holding the gap before buyers were unable to test above the Friday high before sellers stepped in and closed the gap.  Selling then continued lower, pausing during the lunch hour just above the Friday low before driving lower in the afternoon.  There was a brief attempt by buyers to defend 6666 before we continue lower, trading down to about 6600 before a strong rally near the end of the day took us more than 100 points higher, to close above 6700.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down to 6666 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down through Monday low 6580.50 and continue lower to target the open gap at 6554.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6733.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, first spiking upward shortly after Globex trade began 6pm Sunday, then making a secondary rotation higher around 5am.  The second rotation saw price briefly probe above the Friday high.  As we approach cash open, prices are hovering right around last Friday’ high.  At 8:30am personal income/spending data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week began with a slight gap up and choppy Monday.  Tuesday saw a big gap down, away from value which drove lower early on before finding a responsive bid.  The rest of Tuesday was spent rallying but Wednesday erased those gains during a trend down.  Wednesday was spent reversing much of Tuesday’s losses but then Amazon and Google earnings after the bell spiked price lower.  Friday was choppy.  In sum, chopping week, lots of big moves in both directions.

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap down-to-near the weekly low.  Buyers drove higher off the open but were quickly overrun, pushing the market range extension down.  Selling dried up shortly after the first hour and we reversed, pressing back up through the daily range to go neutral then tagging the Thursday naked VPOC.  Sellers stepped back in and we chopped into the bell, eventually closing slightly above the daily midpoint.

Neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and work a half gap down to 6930.50.  Buyers step in here and work up through overnight high 6991.50 to tag 7000.  Look for sellers up at 7023.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a full gap fill down to 6893.50 then continue down through overnight low 6882.75.  Look for buyers down at 6800 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, up through 7023.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target 7088.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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