NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, and as we approach cash open prices are hovering above the midpoint of last Monday’s (Monday before Thanksgiving) liquidation day.  At 8:30am GDP came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have oil inventories at 8:30am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at 11:30am in New York, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and open two-way auction.  Responsive buyers stepped in just below overnight low and then began a campaign to take close the overnight gap.  We then returned to the daily midpoint, which buyers defended early in the afternoon, setting up a move back towards session high near end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher.   Up above, 6800 aligns nicely with the value area low of a major zone that formed in the weeks leading up to the holiday.  Look for sellers to defend here.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6811 setting up a move to tag the VPOC of that big value area at 6873 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6712.25.  Look for buyers down at 6693.50 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of globex until about 3am when a recycled ‘trade wars’ news piece caused prices to spike higher.  The spike looks algo driven, and it cleared out several levels of resistance in its wake.  Price subsequently erased the gains and as we approach cash open prices are hovering below Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have case-shiller home price index at 9am, consumer confidence at 10am, a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 5-year note auction at 1pm, and Fed speak from three Fed bankers at 2:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap up and beyond the Friday half-day range.  Buyers drove higher on the open, stalling just before closing the gap left behind last Monday-to-Tuesday.  Responsive sellers pushed the market range extension down but initiative buyers (initiative relative to Friday’s close, responsive relative to Monday’s open) rejected a move back into Friday range.  We then rallied into the close, traversing the entire day’s range, closing the last Monday-to-Tuesday gap, and closing near session high.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6670.  From here we continue higher, back up to the algo spike ‘scene of the crime’ taking out overnight high 6712.50.  This triggers a rally up to 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out after closing overnight gap 6670 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 6622.25 and continue lower, down to 6591.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, uni-directional up, trading up into last Monday’s trend down range briefly before discovering responsive sellers.  As we approach cash open price is hovering down below Monday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bills up for auction at 11am, 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30am, and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week started off with a gap down and liquidation sale lower.  The selling continued overnight Monday and we had a big gap down Tuesday.  This gap down discovered a strong responsive bid early Tuesday and the rest of the week was light, with the holiday on Thursday reducing volume for the rest of the week.  The Russell and NASDAQ demonstrated relative strength during the holiday drift, never returning to their Tuesday low, unlike the S&P and Dow which did take out their lows later in the week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day.  It was a half day.  There is not much insight to gain from it.  Wednesday was a normal day also.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, reclaiming last Monday’s range by taking out overnight high 6655 and closing the Monday gap at 6672 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 6600.  Buyers reject a move back into the Friday range (6601.50) and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 6530.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 6522.  Look for buyers down at 6527 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the day after Thanksgiving gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping sideways below the Wednesday range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit manufacturing/service/composite PMI at 9:45am.  There is also an early close at 1pm.

On Wednesday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and test above the Tuesday high.  This saw the market stall out and we marked time for the rest of the session, ultimately holding on the overnight gap despite some selling late in the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6575.75.  From here we continue higher to 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower, down through overnight low 6518.25 setting up a move to target 6500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers sustain trade below 6500 setting up a move to target 6422.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday, day before Thanksgiving, gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, exploring higher prices but staying inside the Tuesday range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Tuesday high.  At 8:30am durable goods and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have leading index, existing home sales, and the final November reading of U. of Michigan sentiment at 10am, followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a pro gap down and wide two-way auction.  The opening behavior discovered a responsive bid down below overnight low and we spent the rest of the morning working higher.  Sellers rejected an attempt back into Monday range, instead rotating the market back down to the daily midpoint through most of the afternoon.  We closed near, but below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up and close the Monday open gap at 6672.  From here we continue higher up to 6700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6532.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6509.  Look for buyers down at 6500 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 6730 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trending down the entire globex session.  As we approach cash open, we are trading at price levels unseen since early April.  At 8:30am housing starts data came out below expectations and building permits came in above expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we 4- and 8-week T-bills being auctioned off at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down into the week and selling drive lower.  The selling was steady and methodical, with price closing near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for violent chop.  Price is way out of balance and the higher timeframe is likely to be active on the open.  Look for buyers to work a half gap fill up to about 6600 before sellers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower.  Trade down to 6423.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full-on-liquidation.  Prices sustain below 6400 setting up a move to target 6300 then look for buyers down at 6277.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down in-range after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked to a new three-day high overnight before falling back down to into Friday’s range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have NAHB housing market index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week the NASDAQ began gap down and with a liquidation lower.  Selling pressure saw prices lower through Wednesday despite some strong responsive bids stepping in along the way.  Finally a strong enough responsive bid came in Wednesday morning that had enough force to turn the auction higher.  We had conviction buying through Thursday and Friday was a balance day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6893.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6934.50 setting up a move to tag the 6950 CVPOC before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, driving a liquidation off the open that trades down to 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to the measured move ATR band at 6730.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price held inside the upper half of Thursday’s range overnight, spending the majority of the evening rotating lower.  As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Thursday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing production at 9:15am followed by long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began flat.  An early two-way auction gave way to selling and we made a new low on the week.  This low discovered a strong responsive bid and we pressed back up through the day’s range, going neutral before lunch.  Then, buyers defended a throwback to the mid point which setup a strong afternoon rally.  Despite sellers stepping in ahead of the Tuesday high, buyers managed to drive price back up near daily high before closing bell.

Double distribution trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6916.25.  Buyers continue higher, trading through overnight high 6917.75 to target the composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press through composite VPOC 6950 and sustain trade above it, setting up a move to target 7000.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 6806.25.  Look for buyers down near 6800 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, with all Globex trade contained inside the lower half of Wedneday’s range.  As we approach cash open prices are hovering in the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s range.  At 8:30am advance retail sales came out better-than-expected, Philly Fed data below expectations, and initial/continuing jobless claims below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 11am.  With oil prices down nearly -9% in the past week, the inventory data may be more likely to spark a reaction in the NASDAQ futures.  We also have Jerome Powell speaking about the hurricane Harvey recovery efforts at 11:30am.

NASDAQ traders sticking around after the bell should also be aware that major tech component NVIDIA is set to report earnings after market close.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap up, in range which sellers resolved after a brief two-way auction at the open.  Sellers then continued working price lower, down through the weekly low.  Late in the session a strong responsive bid was discovered that spiked price up to the daily midpoint.  The midpoint was a solid wall of selling, however, and we traded back down near the session low by end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 6751.50 setting up a move to target 6718.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down through 6700 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move to test down through swing low, down below 6666.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 6843.25 setting up a move to target 6900 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday up a quick 40 points after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down to prices unseen since October 30th.  Around 4:30AM a responsive bid stepped in and since then we have trade uni-directionally higher, up more than 100 points off the low.  As we approach cash open price is hovering along the Tuesday midpoint.At 8:30am consumer price index data came out mixed.

The only other important economic event scheduled for today comes after the bell.  At 6pm Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be talking economy down in Dallas.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  A neutral day after a normal day, with a long-liquidation lowercase-b profile.  All formations typically seen at-or-near swing low.  Tuesday began with a gap up and very choppy opening auction.  Said chop managed to take out overnight high early on before thrusting lower to resolve the overnight gap.  At this point sellers were unable to press the market range extension down.  Instead we drove higher, going RE up and tagging the composite volume point of control 6950.  Strong responsive sellers stepped in here and defended their Monday morning selling conviction.  This pushed us back down through the entire daily range, putting us into a neutral print.  Bids came in late on the session and pushed price just up beyond the day’s lower range quadrant.

Neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6851.50.  Buyers reject a move down through Tuesday low 6818.25 setting up a move to take out overnight high 6899, setting up a move to target the composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up to 6950 early.  There’s a battle here that ultimately gives way to buyers who drive price up to 7000.  Look for sellers up at 7023.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close overnight gap 6851.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 6777 setting up a move to target 6717.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »