I am trading well but ENPH is taking me out back and beating me senseless. I am down 15% on this stock in two short days. Unreal, yet very real simultaneously.
Here I am, once again, juggling 50 plates in the traveling circus show only this time one after another is smashing atop my bald clown head and cerebral fluid is dripping down my pasty cheeks. I lopped another 1.5 percent off my book today. I would have been two, but I had a TZA position which I sold within the first five minutes of trade.
My only other move was to buy calls in TSLA. This is a 7 dollar bet essentially that states, “$300 before $200.”
I looked at buying other stocks today, names like DANG and GOGO, but I held off. Clearly I have angered the market gods and they sent their fallen angel ENPH to sodomize me. The stock never went up one penny since my ‘reentry’ nope, straight down the pipes.
I could like to be sick but I have 5 more hours of work.
ENPH may just be another ticker symbol in the market of stocks, but every time I have traded it I get the rolling pin to the face and ass.
Don’t worry I am still in so it can continue catering. I haven’t felt this noob in a few years.
The S&P squeezed above the bull target we observed this morning. Capturing and sustaining trade at these levels was a worthy accomplishment by the bull camp and instills a bit of confidence going into the weekend. The flip side of the coin is the complacent manner of the tape, where bulls are being led back into high energy momentum stocks and the market yawned off a complete NASDAQ freeze.
Regardless, I’ve made no changes to my book, nor do I intend to ahead of the weekend. Instead I’m day dreaming about hitting the magnificent road and leaving this filthy city behind. I’m heading for the pure air of Pure Michigan.
My only move today was buying ENPH, and old nemesis, near the open. I’m 90 percent long heading into the weekend, carrying a broad array of stocks and ETFs.
Could I get slaughtered come Monday? Sure.
But I’m confident I can trade my way out of it with my thick quiver of arrows. I look forward to doing so, live on the interwebs, like a boss.
Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:37pm ESTComments Off on Planning My Next Move
It was a week of setbacks in the market for yours truly, being on the receiving end of two major blows. Going into the weekend, I had to rid myself of one of these losers and of the two, TPX and ENPH, I decided to cut ENPH.
It was not an easy choice but it was most certainly a necessary choice. I want loose capital, ready to pounce of fresh ideas. Hell, I may even buy some ENPH next week, who really knows?
There were big winners this week. Zillow spent most of the week pressing into the necks of their high short float…I wish I hadn’t sold, but perhaps we’ll get a downdraft next week to latch onto.
Facebook was hands down the darling of the market, perhaps restoring the confidence of the disheartened retail investor. I knew this day would come, where I would have a low cost basis in the name, able to now kick back and let the future pan out.
I made OCZ full size early last week, a rare move even for me. To go full size in a sub $2.00 stock takes a certain amount of gumption and laser clear risk parameters. As dicey as it seemed to hold the position for 8 sessions with zero progress, it continued to behave constructive. It was only a matter of time until the shorts were spooked. Today, I sold ¼ @ 1.75 earning around 5% and another ¼ at 1.825 (damn algos) earnings over 8%. It’s a great trade so far: a very constructive chart with lots of shorts to fuel a rally and a company that creates wonderful value for the world. I love it.
I’m beginning to see the potential of smoking shorts out of their favorite hiding places in this aging bull market. With the tools this site provides, I intend to do exactly that.
I backed off the futures this week, taking a more passive approach. They intrigue me to no end, and I see huge potential in trading them, but my interest is shifting to day trading these momentum stocks. There’s an edge to be had in sousing short sellers with the buy cannon and grabbing .40-.50 cents in movement. If you align your orders with a change in trend in the /es, you’re riding the tide holding a water bazooka. It just sounds fun! And I want to put more capital towards this new sport.
I’ve accepted that TPX will likely trade down to $35.00. Then I want to see how this price level is met as it is of HUGE importance. I may buy more shares, I may sell, or I may simply hold on to what I have.
This has been another fantastic week working alongside the brightest minds in finance, and I look forward to doing it all again next week. Have a great weekend.
I’m such a sucker for Bruno Mars, I can’t help it…he reminds me of James Brown in this video, enjoy:
Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:14pm ESTComments Off on Kick Fighting
The Facebook, led by a fearless byproduct of my generation’s upbringing (kickass video games and cable), has reemerged as an endearing member of the Wall Street community because, let’s be honest, they’re making money. Lots of it. And that’s all we really care about, right?
I needed some winship because for real, my portfolio is getting HAMMERED.
Listen, I’m not one to cower behind my losses, suggesting caveats existed and expanding my verbiage to sound smart. I’m smart as shit, you know that. The ‘junk in my trunk’ is being iron pressed into the proverbial hotplate long ENPH in size. Support held on the first go of it, barely, and I’m still in possession of my shares, barely. I can barely muster the strength to keep it, but I am merely a shepherd to the solar stocks and I must lead them to greener pastures. Today I fended off the wolves, barely, and as I walk east to the Promised Land a warm sun kisses my weary shoulders…barely.
On to the important matter of Sealy Tempur-Pedic and their perverted bed salesmen, I like what I’m seeing. I can’t sit here, behind my keyboard, and act like I’m some expert in the fundamentals of mergers. Hell, I’m not an expert in any fundamentals for that matter. I’ve been digging around all week, trying to understand this weakness. Select Comfort (SCSS) missed last week Wednesday citing increased input costs. On the surface, this seems like it could affect our TPX, but that’s not the case. Select Comfort has been investing in their stores, technology, and product development all in an attempt to remain competitive. That’s squeezing their operating income down.
So a sympathy move in TPX makes less sense than the fashion styling’s of Kris Kross. On the other hand, housing stats have been strong for months everywhere but the Midwest and let’s face it; Midwestern folk are a bunch of frugal penny pinchers anyhow. Hell they’d use a rock for a pillow if it saved them money to buy lotto tickets and fuel up their oversized SUVs. So as much as I wanted to scale down this TPX long before Thursday’s earnings call, I may just have to throw caution to the wind, middle finger in the air, and take what’s coming to me.
Obviously I’ve been emboldened by Ford and Facebook.
The rapid depreciation of my equities in general has upped my cash to 22 percent. There were no trades taken today, I just let the losses effervesce in my bowels.
As risk flies off the table today, my book is getting pulverized, down around 1.5% 2% as I type. Leading the march lower after taking a minute to wake are gold and silver. I told you this is a run-and-gun industry to mess with. EXK has given back all its gains already. Having scaled only 1/3 of my position off so far, I’m confronted with a curious proposition, do I cut the net and take my small door prize or do I stick to the plan? Sticking to the plan results in a small loss, nearly a scratch, but sticking to the plan could make a solid gain, I’ll give it another day or two.
Solar stocks are getting pounded to pieces by incessant sell orders also. This happened around mid-June and it was a fantastic buying opportunity. This time it looks like we’re all doomed…so it’s an excellent buying opportunity. The only difference between then and now is where the indices reside relative to the industry. Back then we were on pins hoping the bottom wouldn’t fall out of the entire shithouse, today we’re day one of selling from all-time highs…hmm…
My largest position is due for earnings tomorrow after the bell and the chart is suggesting nothing positive. TPX has essentially become a coin toss. I’m at a real crossroads here, sitting a tad under -3% on the name. I planned on lightening up before earnings but now it feels like a rip-off because I think they crush and guide. A betting man at heart, young enough to absorb a gravity hammer to the dome, I may just go for it…this is a young man’s game after all.
My pseudo hedge FXY is down nearly a percentage alongside the market. Cool of me to get fancy, no?
I’m not shorting the /es futures at all because I’m too distracted so no relief from that front.
On the plus side because there’s always a plus side, I took a ¾ size long into the F earnings, that’s helping a bit. OCZ is bucking the trend, but I doubt it can breakout amidst the overall market weakness. AIXG is undergoing a nice bounce back after Europe reported very strong factory data, and I have a modest sized FB long which I will carry into this afternoon’s Marc love fest. #timestamp that, we’re all going to love Marc Zuckerberg after today’s announcement. We’re going to gang poke him until he can’t see straight.
After spending the morning getting myself well positioned in the futures, talking a bit of smack on the twitter network, and other general business tasks I grew hungry.
The pickle of it all was my damn minions aren’t here today, bastards.
So I had to go get some grub myself, oh the humanity.
And while I did, I was sequestered from my kickass electronics and forced to view the market through the lens of an iPhone. Stupid-archaic-fossil phone!
As luck would have it, I was well positioned in the futures, buying 1687.25 in the ES_F. I took a scale at a point and a quarter because the sellers appeared as if they would not relent. Then as I cursed society’s insistence on dawdling through life, a small burst of selling caught me off guard and I covered my long for +0.75.
At that very moment, the move I planned on riding occurred, back the VPOC, without Raul. All because I had to fetch my own food.
So far I missed my first scale in EXK too, because I held out for a few more pennies. I’m sure it still gets it, but I wanted to get my first scale quick to fulfill the old instant gratification desire.
ENPH is plagued by a seller in and around $7.50, a jackass really. TPX, my only position larger than ENPH, has been a cold fish for weeks, freezing my assets in place. Do you see how much time I’m wasting?
Instead of getting frustrated, I went and talked to strangers about anything and everything besides the markets: the rampant bug infestations occurring, the blood red moon, the biblical rain storms…you know, stuff the common folk discuss.
Today’s session had a smack of indecision which led to me selling First Solar into the closing bell. It goes like this: you’re sitting in a well-sized, well entered position in an industry—in this case solar. You’re also sitting in an oversized, well entered position in the same industry. The oversized position, in my case ENPH, gets beaten over the head for the third straight session and now you face a decision. Do you cut the loser, even though it’s technically still on track with your plan? Or do you cut the small winner, thus reducing your overall exposure to a bipolar industry?
I chose the latter, and I’d do it again if I had the chance.
It does take a certain bit of blissful ignorance to let your balls swing low in this market. We printed another doji candle in the $SPX, and I plum don’t like where this one is placed. So I cut FSLR.
FSLR in all honestly, because I’m an honest mother lover, presents a better chart setup than ENPH. But I see less downside risk in ENPH, as we near my max pain level. About $6.50, on a closing basis, is max pain. I won’t become an investor in ENPH, if you know what I mean, but certain setups take time to reward you, and the reward is sweet money.
That and I bought EXK and played grab ass in the futures. That’s my day. Good night.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that solar companies offer the same promise as CREE: a reduced dependency on the electrical grid. But pull out a 2013 chart of CREE and compare it to your favorite solar issuance. Actually no, I’ll do it for you.
Behold! Greatness, smooth and non-porous…vs…bleep,blop,bloop:
Better yet, let’s get visualized via a performance chart, shall we?
NOTICE ANYTHING? I do, CREE besting the competition and doing so in a smooth, methodical manner. But wait, who is that little shining star, outperforming on the year ever so boldly?
Indeed it is ENPH. And I’m fully over sized into ENPH, sitting though a melt down of sorts. If I had it my way, I’d be buying more I bought more here because ENPH is a winner this year, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. I implore PPT subscribers to dial this ticker into your machines and observe the statistics.
It’s hot. All other solar exposure is a crappy crap shoot, trust. Look at March and April weakness across the board on the performance chart, who didn’t care? CREE and ENPH.
Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:11pm ESTComments Off on Stupid Launch Pad – Didn’t Even Make Money
When you build a launch pad, delicately attending to every detail, and then it doesn’t make you any moneys – you want to take a bulldozer and smash it to bits.
Like when your do-it-yourself plumbing job goes surprisingly well until the end when you over torque a pipe and break everything. Your inner monkey emerges and chucking the channel locks through the mirror seems the only logical reaction.
It’s better to tidy up your work, retool everything, and have another go at it.
GOOG and MSFT both disappointed after hours and are down. QQQ and SPY are both pressing up against your favorite overbought indicator, and leaders are lagged all day.
We may see a down day or two…
The Philli Fed pumped up the market with vigor, only for us to spend the remainder of the day giving it back. I suppose I state all of this because I’m near fully vested and only holding FXY as a pseudo-hedge.
My swing portfolio is red on the day, championed by TPX getting poleaxed. Everything else did nothing fun.
I get a long on in the futures at a decent bargain and then the momentum vanishes and I sit around, not eating, waiting for like $100 more in profit. Then I finally settle for my pittance and go eat a taco.
I’m still trading within the confines of my plan and I’m mildly profitable 4 out of 4 days as a result. Somebody has to hold me accountable and that somebody is me. Hell, I’m used to talking to myself what with the twitter and the blog, so self-enforced discipline feels normal.
I bulked up on ENPH and closed out DDD and Z. I’m convinced the best way to play DDD is to buy some every quarter and never sell, but that doesn’t fit my fringe lifestyle.
Don’t you know forces exist much greater than ours and they are determined to derail your momentum trade? GUY! You don’t want to play momentum trades too tight up here, at the precipice. You’ve got to be cool, relax, get hip, and get on their tracks.
As I type, TAN, FSLR, YGE, and ENPH are well off their lows, and you’re without solar stocks.
Time to play catch up, because they’re the best momo show in town.