If you are confined to a desk as others decidedly “slack off” into the holiday weekend, then why not turn on your radio? Why not beat those assholes by picking the fastest horse for next Tuesday’s event? Build, build build, an event might rear its head! Or nothing happens.
Well, something happens. There will be winners in this pragmatic contest of wit—stocks who prevail amidst a downturn. It is your job to find them and wrap a proper risk profile upon them.
I have made my bed with a slew of candidates (extra R. Kelly). I bought the KNDI liquidation or dilution, depending on your perception and added to P. Other top picks into the holiday include ONVO, GLUU, and the WB.
Of course I am long all of these, and more. Godspeed
It turns out the NASDAQ printed what is called a normal day in market profile theory and the fun thing about normal days is they are anything but. In fact, they are rather rare.
And I must say I do not particularly like normal days, at least not up here at swing highs, because they tend to occur at or near inflection points. A normal day is described as having a very wide initial balance (first hour of trade) which is not breached for the remainder of the session. It suggests indecision, intraday, mostly signaling directional conviction is low.
That context makes sense if think about gapping higher, in a hot (too hot?) bull trend, into a short holiday week. Short sellers do not want to get steamrolled in the thin trade, buyers are hesitant to initiate additional exposure at these elevated levels, and current longs are likely mulling taking profits.
Add to that the narrow pockets of market momentum and you have a solid recipe for indecision.
I have my book about 90% long at this indecisive juncture. AMBA finally went to work, crushing the hopes and dreams of Morgan Stanley analysis hoping to make a name in the technology space. I like to think this guy who downgraded AMBA will read the Raul blog, so I have a special message for him: this chipset powers the GoPro, it is on the X-mas list of every adventurer. Short interest, albeit modest, will start to get icy hands as we approach December 5th earnings. Then they will start making mistakes.
The chicken trade adhered to the November seasonality statistics, naturally, unlike the unnatural meat produced in PPCs new streamlined robot facilities. December brings a tad bit more seasonality mojo, and we still have national eat 1-to-3-birds-at-once day Thursday. I took an obligatory 1/3 scale today, but I like my prospects with the net.
I bought AAPL back right near the closing bell. If you recall, I was in this trade a few weeks back and bailed with a little 2 percent gain. It is an easy vehicle for me to lever long exposure up and down, as it consolidates along gently.
I now hold large positions in the following names, listed largest-to-smallest:
GOGO, RVLT, BALT, YELP, and CREE
These are all full size positions. As you may imagine, this type of book requires attentiveness. It has the capability of lopping 10% off my person rather effortlessly.
My ¾ size positions are as follows, listed again largest-to-smallest:
AMBA, AAPL, PPC, LO, and TSLA
Note: AMBA was by far my largest position prior to taking a scale near today’s high. Tesla and their innovative CEO Elon Musk are in the house of pain. Much like any successful individual, the media will frame Elon with a skeptical eye. Innovators hunt profit and self-gain after all, which is inherently evil. The issue most closely watched at TSLA is the battery technology. If it is to usher in the era of zero emission commuting, it needs to hold up to rigorous scrutiny. If Telsa intends to roll out a model for the middle class, they need sound battery technology established. The chart is just basing out, below my favorite moving averages, suggesting acceptance of these lower prices. What likely comes next is a new exploration lower by price. This will scare most of you. But I will be casually observing the action, minding the drawdown to my books, and meticulously selecting an opportunity to ratchet up exposure because I love me some sweet baby Elon.
I have dog and pony positions in the following stocks. These positions are practically placeholders and some are relics from prior trades:
F, FXY, ONVO, TWTR, MJNA, and O
I thought I would turn a clever trick in MJNA. Now I am -40% on this stupid, STUPID, holding. It will enjoy a fake pump service or go to zero otherwise I will continue to hold this dumbness.
ONVO needs to die for a while. It trades poorly. I will keep my toe in the water to keep my eyes on the name.
TWTR is another name I will hold until zero. I use twitter more than any other social media service in the world, why wouldn’t I own it? One day I will have huge size, but right now there simply is not much to base my risk on. Therefore I wait.
This post has gone on far too long. These are my holdings and some reasoning behind them. Let’s see how they perform this week.
Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife. He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt. His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence. He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”
And so went the day. Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop. The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.
We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long. There was a mix of winners on the day. The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class. Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.
The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.
Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market. Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use. On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate. LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.
I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:
AMBA, PPC, AAPL, GOGO, RVLT, TSLA, LO, YGE, WLT, SFM, BALT, CREE, F, ONVO, FXY, TWTR, MJNA, and O
Many of those are partials. The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT
The Twitter IPO was officially a success. People are taking to Twitter to congratulate @NYSEEuronext on their handling of the public offering and the investing community couldn’t be happier. There was one little hiccup however, anyone who bought shares at the actual opening price is either unchanged or underwater in their position.
And the market trended lower all day.
Determining whether the broad market weakness was a result of the TWTR IPO or whether the TWTR IPO was flat intraday because of the broad market weakness occupied my mind entirely too much today. What came first, the chicken or the egg?
One thing is for certain, it did not piss everyone off…yet.
I bought some shares today, a modest ¼ size position or 2.5% of my entire book. Twitter is my crack rock. Facebook is for nosy relatives unlike Twitter which is the greatest mechanism for taking the collective pulse of any situation anywhere in the world instantly. It’s fun, always. Are you a lonesome loser some nights? Don’t fret, pal, fire up your tailor made feeds and join the discussion. Jeff Macke would love reading that I bought TWTR today with long term intentions. I know this because I read Macke’s quip on Twitter! As I write, no less than 300 birds are swarming outside my window. No doubt a sign from the stock gods that this will be a major win for my purse. I intend to build into a 10% position, quarterly, or as I see fit.
Now allow me to address the 2.8% bloodshed I took today on the rest of my damn book. The LED industry was completely pulverized today alongside its relatives the solar stocks. The only thing confusing me is the fantastic earnings report out of OESX. They are growing a modern clip, retrofitting companies across the nation with energy-saving light emitting diodes. I always had a sweet spot for this company. Why I don’t own them, I couldn’t tell you. The entire announcement was solid and only strengthens my outlook on the pipeline for LED business. We have RVLT reporting tomorrow, should they meet their lofty forecasted growth, we could see these stocks stop going down. That’s the first step towards going up.
TSLA is getting the beat down. If this surprises you, then you have never been a hot money stud. Hot momentum cuts both ways. Keep your position sizes modest, know where your trade is wrong, and always look to scale profits. I am still waiting for the right kind of weakness to size up into.
I bought more AMBA today only moments before its final afternoon poop lower. That is the opposite of a pop higher. The company is solid. The technology is bringing high quality cameras to an excellent price point and the GoPro camera line is a massive success amongst my age group. Earnings are out of the way and if tech gets over this seasonal cold, I see AMBA as a primary beneficiary into year-end.
BALT traded like it was being pulled under my a massive squid. Thank goodness for my sniper entry. I’m riding this boat until the Capitan abandons ship.
No developments of interest from the rest of my book besides nibbling pieces of flesh off me like I was a walking buffet. I can’t complain, it kind of tickles.
Finally futures trading: I took one winning long scalp at the open and then I sidelined myself once the blood bath began. I am very talented at recognizing when I am out of my element. It’s an education I obtained by donating thousands of dollars to the markets. I am green on the day. I could have been emerald green with a pink top hat had my mind been focused, but I digress.
May the bloodshed continue into the weekend so I can obtain better pricing in TSLA, saluti
Ladies, gentlemen, please…allow me a moment to address the market.
You may not make it down to the Raul blog often, but I reside rather gingerly on the front page of iBankCoin. I know that my continued existence in these hallowed halls amongst the finest strangers the internet has to offer depends on one very important matter: banking coin at criminal rates.
After exhibiting complacency two weeks ago Friday I have been on the receiving end of a severe bludgeoning via shares of PPC due to a salmonella scare. I regret to inform you I was forced out of this position today and took a large loss. Let’s talk about large losses.
This was a ten percent position and I stopped out at twelve and a half percent. Math:
I lost 1.2% of my account value. Part of me wanted to ride the stock into earnings for the glory. I envisioned myself riding into town on a chicken-drawn chariot with plebs laying olive branches on the street. Upon reaching to town square I would be handed the ceremonial staff to perform a blessing of the populares, restoring balance to the social classes.
But in a rather stoic manner I cut the shares loose. Because the truth is public perception is fickle. Many of you are simple, as am I, and lack the resources or time to give a company a full fundamental shake. I know inputs to making chicken meat are down across the board, but so does anyone else who analysis this company. Elon Musk set a new standard with his quick assessment and public response to the Model S fire and now I expect the same from all companies. I get Old Wall Street silence instead. So PPC and its shareholders can go fly a kite for all I care and I’m back in the sewers, hungry as ever.
I cut LEDS too. Perhaps the critics were fiddling with their catalytic converters when I scaled 10% profits one day into my campaign. That would justify tossing tomatoes in my direction when I cut my net position for a scratch.
Finally, I cut SCTY. Let’s say you love bath salts but all you can find on sale is old fashioned Mexican speedball. You decide something is better than nothing and in your constant urge for instant gratification you gobble like ten Mexican speedballs. But since you want that bath-salt-bug-eyed rage fueling your body while you chew arms off hobos, you find the speed only providing an uneasy feeling in the pit of your stomach. That’s why I cut SCTY for a 3.4% loss.
My final move was buying a modest allotment of AMBA shares. Morgan Stanly flip flops and the investment community dumps Ambarella? GMAFB. Well actually, you did give me a break because this was an opportunity to get back on board stock in a great company. I liked it at 22, why wouldn’t I love it at 20? I am a buyer of further weakness.
Now I have 22% cash power to buy some blood and a stable of stocks fit for an entrepreneur. Largest-to-smallest friends, largest-to-smallest like always:
GOGO (huge), LO (+15% what?), ONVO, WLT (Walter), RVLT (a love/hate), AMBA (SAIL!), SFM, CREE, SLW, F, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and the big O
That is a hot look. I like this basket of stocks. I have a few names I want to add to the pot to get back to full long exposure but I am content to ride into tomorrow’s spooky trade with some cashish. The Fly’s ALJ has the look, FB is making ATH after hours, and YELP is at a slight discount.
FINALLY: YOU SHOULD COME INSIDE 12631. There is a free trial tomorrow and Friday ONLY. I do my best work in there with little-to-no shenanigans. I would love to see some of my twitter buddies in there. The password for the free trial will be released at midnight, so you vampires can come inside tonight and kick some ideas around and us normal folk will see you bright and early.
Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:23pm ESTComments Off on Searching For A Pulse733
The old market of stocks is becoming ever more selective while the indices teeter like humpty dumpty atop a gigantic wall of worry. The markets are rewarding patience…lots of patience. I continue to profile a large short who is hard at work in the S&P and I am beginning to feel her palms sweating.
Two earnest attempts were made by aggressive sellers today to press price lower. I see there footprints all over my undersized 24-inch Samsung screens. First came the huge order absorption Friday afternoon and then today two aggressive, menacing attempts at driving price lower by hitting the bids HARD.
Both times the damn dip buyers presented themselves.
Now Monday is over and Apple is trading modestly lower as are the /NQs yet the stodgy S&P is lingering. It is lingering like your friend’s friend at the end of the night. It is lingering like the drunken buffoon after last call. The S&P is lingering like a stubborn snail on your porch. The longer the S&P persists at lingering, the warmer the room becomes where the big short resides. The walls get heavy. The sounds of colleagues chatting and printers printing erupt into a confusing noise. Suddenly there’s no air in the room but in reality their breathing has stopped. Their brain is failing. In short, anxiety is building for the massive short.
Or it isn’t. This is all a subjective analysis of a hypothetical seller being profiled by an odd stranger on the internet, yes?
I sold that USO long, taking a 5 percent loss. It looks decent but it was stupid of me to tie up so much money in oil when there is crack to smoke and chocolate to eat. I thought parking 10% of my assets in the name would be like a voluntary break from the action to keep me honest.
Well, it kept me honest and lost me money. That is honestly dumb.
I resisted the strong urge to buy SCTY today although I should have. After hesitating briefly, it appreciated by a dollar and I was no longer interested. At least that is what I tell myself today.
More GOGO had to be purchased. This stock has comported itself with the utmost decency even while other momentum stocks flung solid body waste at one another. It was already a 10% position last week, now it’s nearly 15 my friends.
I still have this PPC chicken stock and corn, soybeans, grains, and any other GMO puke they input into these foul beasts is cheaper than ever. This is without question the overplay for the underlay with the salmonella news as a backdrop.
Anyone who follows the LED industry knows our available and investable companies have been tossed into The Fly’s fag box. RVLT continued being a cerebral pain by trading down. It went down, okay? It is down for no reason in particular aside from having a loose corporate structure and managing to eke out 500% plus gains on the year. You may continue seeing profit taking in this wild stock.
In short, my cash is up and I am concentrating my risk where the momo is chasing.
There are crazy moves, both ways, going down in this market of stocks.
Early on we had a pretty solid read on the Nasdaq and S&P and we were talking through the psychology inside the 12631 pay wall. I trade little blips in the gyrations of the NASDAQ and my current goal is not to earn money but instead to consistently identify, trigger, and manage one trading picture. I have set the lofty goal of being right 75% of the time. This is for me to prove TO ME that I have the fortitude to trade futures before committing adult money to the venture.
But I was watching my move play out and I started noticing excessive aggression from the sellers. Have you ever walked up to a girl and started talking game only to quickly find out her husband or boyfriend is close in tote? Said boyfriend often puffs out his chest and behaves like a primate because he feels threatened. This is overreacting and once it happens you can almost rest assured you have won…something, life, the momentary affection of the women, whatever. Market participants do the same thing all the time just before they lose. The more you watch the tape, the clearer it becomes.
Anyhow, sellers started acting like scared bitches just before eleven and the S&P was trading up into the key battle linehighlighted this morning. This is what had me buying WDAY and WLT. I got in before the pop and used most of my money doing it. I am now 95% long and uncomfortably so.
So I went into my portfolio and tried really hard to find something to sell before the market makes me sell and I came out empty handed. I know, it is completely negligent to be 95% long way up here but I cannot justify selling any of my positions where they stand.
I honestly feel as pickled into a catch 22 as I have ever felt in my trading career.
Off topic: I have sustained myself on water and candy ONLY today. My eyes feel like they want to explode and gush sugar all over my keyboard.
Not chocolate nutty candy either…just the crack: taffies, lemon heads, now and later cubes, dubble bubbles (apropos), and jujyfruits.
Gallons of water.
Somebody convince me to sell one of these holdings, largest-to-smallest:
ONVO, PPC, RVLT, USO, LO, WLT, GOGO, ADHD, CREE, WDAY, SLW, F, LEDS, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and O
Let me start by saying I am not thrilled with the action in the S&P 500. I was discussing this with one of my most distinguished readers, gentleman UncleBuccs. My chart brain sees lower prices in store before news highs are achieved.
So I did what any responsible person would do when confronted with these “facts” …I bought stocks.
I still have some cash on the books, about 25% which is about the highest my cash has been this year. But I have a huge position in RVLT, a huge position in ONVO, and a huge position in CREE. My next largest position is USO because I think oil is just going to surprise everyone and rip tits into year end, taxing the tight wad consumer before x-mas.
Everything else is ¾ size or smaller: LO, Z, GOGO
Then my slow money: F and O
Then a tiny IMMR I keep for sport and this stupid MJNA long—down 20% waiting for a pop to sell into. It will come. It is a matter of time not will.
I traded the futures less this week, especially after I got gang banged by algorithms Tuesday. I took a conservative trade in the /ES yesterday that worked out well. Today, that same conservative nature caused me to miss an idea I mapped out very well. Oh well, there is always next week. /NQ is looking promising as anything I have ever seen—both on a discretionary and algorithmic basis.
About this time every week I am overcome with a huge feeling of gratefulness. Thank you for reading along. I love this work and interacting with my internet people. Have a great weekend.
Of course the news flow had some merit. After all there were serious talks occurring in Washington DC, the epicenter of insider trading. But save me the wordy discussions, I can see their footprints in the walk of price.
Funny to see former Detroit Mayor Kilpatrick getting 28 years in the hole while the Federal government plays budgetary chicken. I never considered Kwame’s actions worse than your average politician, they only seemed move obvious. I promise you, the city of Detroit is a better off with Big Meech behind bars a solid 20-something years.
Enough, let’s discuss what happened here today. We gapped up huge overnight and drove hard off the open. At that point it was simply a matter of finding a way to grab on to the long side and hold on for one hell of a ride.
We had upside targets in mind and they were achieved before 11am. These targets were far from the opening print and I thought it may take us all day, if not into the weekend to achieve the prices.
But there’s eager money out there, yearning for another hit.
What worked for me today?
LED stocks crushed today—all of them. The industry is on fire.
Buying GOGO blood yesterday, veddy nice
Vapor smokes via Newport cigarette maker LO – that is a quality company with a quality chart. Don’t be blu [sic] if you missed today’s move because it is just getting started. Nice dividend too.
Measured move, market profile, and Fibonacci confluence – My most profitable day trade was a four handle short in the spooz.
My /NQ algo. It is starting to worry me, it is on a roll
The mighty PPT
What didn’t work?
ONVO was quiet…almost too quiet
Z didn’t make much of a bounce
Cash, lazy lazy cash
There was a bit of selling into the bell and the waters are still choppy, however cool minds prevailed and top calling continues to be a daunting task. Tomorrow will be the challenging day after a trend day. The location of today’s close also precludes chop in store for tomorrow.
Should we not chop, but instead drive higher or lower, it would be a surprise and a reason to adjust your stance.
“An organ printer, an iPhone with airborne internet access, a real estate app, haptics, and LED light bulbs”
NOTHING! Not quite.
They are all technologies that will make the coming years exponentially more kickass than 2013. I hold stock in all of them via ONVO, GOGO, Z, IMMR, RVLT, and CREE respectively. These are real companies adding value to society. On the contrary, we have the god damned politicians and their media outlet mouth pieces. There is no value being created by politics.
And I have no alternative to offer because I never follow politics. Hell, I have antenna teevee and really only watch Jeopardy. Therefore I don’t talk politics. There, I said it. I know it is ignorant and I cannot care. I have too much business to tend to.
I was a buyer of stocks today. I am siding with the robots. I cut my twitter exposure down to the bear [sic] minimum. It is too noisy. My squiggly lines say buy for a quick hit of crack rock and then GTFO, therefore I am doing exactly that.
My slow money is still in place via F, O, LO, and USO