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Tag Archives: $AIXG

Light Emitting Diode

The words sound sweet to my ears.  The glow they produce, so versatile and clean.  The energy they consume, so small.  LEDs are the TSLA of the lighting industry.

So sure, you could for the same price purchase a decent European luxury car and live in the present.  Or you can buy the TSLA Model S and leap into the future.  You could outfit your home and workplace with CFLs, ugly little pig tail looking devices.  Or grab some soft glow LEDs at your local Home Depot, direct from CREE.

Also politicians, I know you read the Raul blog and I also know you want to save the world, why not outfit your municipal streets with the XSPR street light at only $99 a piece?  Seems like a no brainer.

And if you want to just sit back and let the pros do all the work, why not pick up your phone and call the fine folks at RVLT?  They will be happy to retrofit your business.

Save the world, join us in the future, live the LED lifestyle.

Note: CREE and RVLT are my largest two positions.  I intend to buy more and concentrate my wealth further into this industry.  This is the big one chapos.

Note Two: I sold AIXG. The Germans are failing at the LED game, oddly enough.

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Stock Pickers Market and Deviating from The Trading Plan

For most of my tenure as a trader stocks have been treated like a singular asset class and thus tightly correlated to other macro instruments like bonds, the US dollar, gold, and oil.  The binary nature drove me to studying futures because if all stocks were hell-bent on moving as one, I might as well trade them all simultaneously with an ass load of leverage.

I love the futures markets.  They are pure order flow with no dependence on a company and their decisions.  But seeing good companies and more importantly good charts succeed even while the market chops around is exciting.

It makes me want to concentrate more funds into stock trading.

I got caught on the wrong side (the long side) of the quick drop this morning.  Even though I preach plan adherence, I deviated and had to take a ton of heat on my trade.  The poor entry, paired with a non-market related event which shall not be mentioned but which has officially created a rule, caused me to shake out of my long—I shit you not—one tick off the morning swing low (about 11am).  No less than five minutes later, what I had expected—a bit of a bounce to cut my loss into—occurred.

This was a huge setback to my futures trading, huge.  I am so sick of setbacks incurred from plan deviation.  They are huge drains on emotional capital.

I went and had some tacos with a friend.  We talked about hunting mushrooms and it was quite the stimulating conversation and helped clear my mind to assess everything.  Trading structure will be restored for tomorrow’s action and it is good to make these mistakes while trading small, believe me.

Focusing so much energy on work and trading futures allows me to think much more slowly about stocks.  The more I learn from the excellent traders and stock pickers here at iBankCoin the better this approach feels.  My book is up 2.5% today while the Big Board chops the UNCH.

RVLT is a big part of the green portfolio, but it is getting plenty of help from IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, and FB.  My account is straight crack rock and ripping.

I see a huge consolidation occurring, as if we are waiting for news flow to get this party started.  Bull or bear, a party is near—I can hear the bass rumbles in the distance.  Until this decision is clearly made, I will hold the line, 90% long.

My slow money is in AIXG, LO, RVLT, MJNA, FB, O, F, and CREE

My fast money is in AMBA, IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, RBCN, and CLF

I still hold a sharp edge in the futures market and my win/loss ratio shows it.  The p/l however does not yet because of setbacks.  This isn’t over until I win which is simply a matter of time, not if.  This week however, my stock gains are casting a bright glow on my futures losses.

Pro Tip:  Like any business, be sure you are sufficiently capitalized.  Better yet, have other revenue streams so this learning process doesn’t come with the added stress of keeping a roof over your head.


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A Friendly Reminder That Everything You See Is Fake

Blocking out the news flow is difficult but the blissful ignorance that comes from it is worth the effort.  Remember if something is important, my well curated twitter stream will tell me.  Better yet, the professionals inhabiting the many rooms of iBankCoin will tell me.  Anything local will be filtered to me via family, colleagues, and friends.  This frees my mind to focus on order flow and sustaining and growing my revenues.

Some days however, often after eating too heavy of a lunch, my attention span degrades by the minute.  For that reason I mostly do not trade futures in the afternoon.  Instead I usually read, stare out the window, or look at Tina Fey nip slip pics.  Nip slips always get my a.d.d. all worked up.

Anyhow, today I closed green by 1.25% even though I was up a rock star 3% intraday.  I scaled off a bit of YGE.  I could afford to do so because I timed my entry perfectly. The market provided me 7% gains, you see, by the time we reached swing high.  I will book that bread any day of the week.  I now have a lower cost basis and as close to a risk free trade as you can get in the markets.

How about that AMBA?  I couldn’t be happier about tossing my Zillow shares in the dumpster to fund my AMBA purchase.  The old me would still be in Zillow. The dead fish action would result in me drawing faces on lemons with a sharpie and then tossing said lemons into my Blendtec emotionlessly.  The house would smell lovely as I died on the inside.

Zillow speaks to the selective nature of our market.  ChessNwine has been keeping this thought at the forefront of our trading mindset in his Weekly Strategy Sessions.  As a matter of fact, he brought my attention back to AMBA too.  I mean, it never left my watch list, and I am a total GoPro fanboy, but the reminder was a nudge on the shoulder if you will.

This AMBA trade has taken conviction.  I am glad to see mine coming back online.

Earlier I said this is all an appetizer, so you may be asking yourself, “What’s for dinner?”  Well my friends, LEDs are for dinner…and sloppy joes.  2013 is the year of the LED, they simply took the 3rd quarter off.  I have been financing these sleepy laggards with high level SHOMPPERY and 12631 magnificence, but it is high time they come online.  My top picks into the fourth quarter are CREE, RVLT, OESX, LYTS, RBCN, VECO, GTAT, and AIXG.

I like CREE the best as a company, RVLT the best as a young man’s speculative investment, and AIXG for their Germanic tribal nature.   I am long the trinity and will buy more of both after I spank a few more trades for stand up doubles.

I joined Le Doctour in BALT today.  I really just like the chart picture, you know me.  He does all the macro stuff.

Everyone is complaining about the way /ES traded today, but I had one of my better days.  When you have an idea of the context we are in, bobbing along the bottom with no conviction, you know to get the laser sight out and get damn good entries to allow you to get out before the things stalls and reverses.  We are learning over here and making a little bit of money while we do so.  From the high win rate comes larger position sizing and eventually scaling.  Then we make the big bucks.

Ah yes, I nearly forgot the point of this post—Everything you see is fake.  The dog and pony show in Washington over Obamacare and debt ceilings is all fake, jack ass es.  Do you really think any of this really matters, really?  I does not.  The terror threat elevation right at about 3:50pm?  Yes, fake.  Syria, real and sad, but so is every third world where cavemen kill each other for the best poppy fields.  Making noise about them is fake.  I have nightmares about a war on our land all the time because of these pundits and the terror threat bullshit. Even some nip slips are fake. I know, horrible times we live in..

Fear mongering from the glass half empty crowd is dangerous.  Avoid the losers who can’t drop it.

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Finishing My Coffee

The market has been unable to compel me into action today.  Instead I have sat here drinking coffee and watching my peers rip the faces off of shorts with supreme ultra-violence.  My goodness, RaginCajun extracts a solid win off of EGLE, passes the baton to Le Fly and here we are, winning the relay.

One of my twitter buds was all over the shippers move too, well done @Apoms24 on the DRYS.

The day after a huge move, overnight or RTH, tends to be tricky intraday.  Therefore, I sat in the bleachers and enjoyed the view.

Book largest-to-smallest: CREE, RVLT, RBCN, AIXG, Z, MHR, FB, CLF, LO, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O

Cash: 20%

Tickers of interest: YGE, FSLR, ONVO, ZNGA, FRO, END, and GMCR

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Lots of Hand Sitting

I couldn’t pull the trigger on anything today, not to sell existing shares, not to buy new shares, and I have SKF already which feel like a bit much in this tape.

I stalked CREE today, it is setting up perhaps.  I wanted to buy shares much lower, so if this setup does trigger I may just trade a piece and go back into my core size (3/4).

Current longs, by size: RBCN, SKF, RVLT, AIXG, CREE, FB, LO, EXK, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O.

Cash around 25 percent.

The O was very strong at the open.  That is a nasty little fade right there.

I lost some money in the futures today when I was shaken out of my short by the clown show in my brain.  I called the head and shoulders this AM to the tick.  But instead of capitalizing on it, I sat in traffic listening to Traffic.  The clown ring leader is Gary Busey.

I’m holding out for my favorite setups before I put any more cash to work.

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Sipping From My Cup

I was not actively trading the /ES today, but my algo was able to take two trades.  One earned 1.75 handles and the other was breakeven.

My portfolio had a very strong day today, up nearly three percent and putting me back near my high watermark of the year.  I’ve been trading my butt off to finance these investments in RVLT and CREE.  As a result, when RVLT and CREE go up, I have big days.

Let’s discuss RVLT a bit.  If we consider the sentiment chart idea, we find ourselves within the panic bounce.  To me this means any rally we see over the next few days/weeks is likely to fail.  How do you like that?  I’m telling you right now that my largest position is involved in a failed rally.  And that’s okay because my timeframe on this position is multi-year.  Let’s hope I’m correct so we can have better opportunities to buy even more shares.  Another anecdotal piece of evidence calling this rally into question is one of its origins: a {cringe} Seeking Alpha report.  The bozos at SA (as the hipsters call them) were greased to help somebody get out of a seriously underwater position.  This is just a theory, but their track record is eroding though the diligent work of iBankCoin Chief Market Strategist “The Fly”.  It puts a foul stink on the whole move.  If it wasn’t a pleasant twenty percent pressure release valve I would be even more ornery.

However, CREE reported they have retrofitted the NASA headquarters and done so quite successfully.  Hmm, Cree really knows how to land the big fish, yes?  Wrong!  The biggest fish tend to be the wisest fish—having survived years of fishing and boat propellers.  If/when these gigantic fish encounter a situation where their lighting is called into question, the data will unequivocally point them in the direction of LEDs.  Any entity that weighs the financial impact of any business decision will see the cost benefit of retrofitting their existing light structure with LEDs.  And CREE, RVLT, OESX, AIXG, RBCN, and GTAT will benefit.  Look at GTAT…shorts better pray to their demon lords that sadistic seven holds as resistance.  Otherwise the light, the good, shall prevail.

Other big winners today were TRLA, CLF, and END.  Readers, I’ve been clear with my calls.  It’s up to you to wrap risk around them.  I scaled a small piece of TRLA off because I take profit when the markets giveth.

My SKF has gone red by about three percent.  Tomorrow it comes to an interesting fork in the road where I’ll either buy more, do nothing, or scratch the trade.  I was hesitant to add to the position today when the SPY absolutely refused to roll over.  Checking back in just now, it appears it did manage to roll, BARELY.  Until I see more confirmation, I’m not loving this trade.

END needs to rip, I mean, come’on now, we’ve been flirting with the idea of going all the way for weeks. Why not get past this game of just the tip as @chessNwine often references?  I think we do, hence why I haven’t scaled any off yet.

CLF is tricky.  It has been dead money for so long and now it shows signs of life.  Do we trust it?  Or do we take our six percent and dump this cheap trick?  TBD

In closing, I kicked my cash up to 25 percent and could like to see some market weakness to buy my favorite stocks sitting on my wish list—names like Z, SFM, GOGO, AMBA, ADHD, and VPCO.

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Full Position Synopsis

Into the weekend I would like to very briefly run down my portfolio holdings and the reasoning behind each.  This information is coming off the rip after a long week.  Thus any thing with a flimsy justification may need to go.

Here we go, from largest to smallest holding:

Cash – I have 20 percent of my book sitting cash.  I’m eager to deploy it on the long side

SKF – I’m using a three year volume profile chart to view BRK/B, WFC, GS, C, etc. and I see a great volume pocket below prices.  Plus they’ve broken down off their respective highs and are printing tight bear flags.  The overall market is on unstable footing and I want some levered short exposure.

RVLT – Yes, it’s my largest long holding and currently the bane of my stock existence.  It earned largest ranking when I blew out my YGE and YELP shares this week.  They were my prior biggies.  The stock is trading worse than a bag of dicks at a hot dog eating contest.  There are no buyers and presumably a few large sellers cashing in on the 600% plus move that took place up unto the day I bought the stock.  The business model is stronger than ever, the shift in focus from consumer products to large scale retrofits is brilliant, and the investor population is still very shortsighted on the opportunity in lighting.  I still love this name, and I plan to cost average in through several quarters.

AIXG – My German LED company.  I love LED technology and I see this company as a beneficiary in Europe due to their energy awareness.  The stock has been dead money for months and I continue to hold.  Nothing has changed here, but this consolidation has excellent potential energy.

END – Huge short interest, oil exploration, and a hot chart.

CREE – Same as RVLT and AIXG, I want these names until incandescent and HID bulbs die.  I’ve been in since January, why exit now?

TRLA – I love their app and use it constantly, the chart looks great, Zillow has been a beast, value added to realty pros, and Le Fly is in the name.

CLF – Tight consolidation, looks like it wants to rip and if it doesn’t the risk is really low.  OA went YOLO on it this week too, although it never moved so that may have been a small loss.

FB – Marky Mark and the poke crew are getting it done.  Holding

LO – Blu eCigs and menthol cigarrets won’t actually get banned.  Interest rates need to stop rising, it’s making the coupon less attractive.

F – Still a strong chart and a nice product line.  This is a patriot long still kicking around my port since the 4th of July

IMMR – haptics are way underutilized by porn.  I think the porn industry will drive growth here 😉 Also, a Le Fly favorite.

USO – I should still be large but I took a bunch of scales on the way up.  I almost sold it all.  Look, that would have been really dumb.

O – it too pays a large coupon which is losing allure with bond rates rising.  I traded my favorite reversal pattern really well in here with a large position.  The locked in gains dipped my cost basis way down here.  So I’m basically break even on the idea, waiting to collect some coupon.

That’s my holdings.  I’m interested in a few other names, like SFM and GOGO, but will wait until next week to act (obviously).

Have a great weekend everyone,


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A Complete Rundown of Today

I had a flat tire when I woke.

The markets took a pause for the most part today and although a calm, balanced day should be high on your expectations following a trend day today was borderline absurd.  The first hour of trade is referred to as the initial balance.  The probability of taking out neither the high nor the low during a day session is less than five percent over the last five years of data.

Today we witnessed a tape so benign it was special.  I took a long at 10:30 AM, missed my profitable exit around 3pm, and scratched the trade break even at 3:10pm.  You wouldn’t believe the frustration that trade produced.  I mean, I look at a stock trade like RVLT, slowly bleeding the lifeblood from my person, like a particularly pestering mosquito.  Eventually winter comes and it freezes and dies.  But each /ES position carries a marginal value over $30,000…which is why I like my gratification instant.  My algo, Elroi was dormant today.  I expected as much since Elroi thrives in high velocity conditions.  Bossram put me on the right side of the opening bell and I extracted 1.5 handles.

I beat my head against the urinal wall then ate several hummus treats.

I had quite the laugh when I saw my boss for the first time today and, I kid you not, he was wearing a full Canadian tuxedo.  It was so majestic.  The only wardrobe piece missing was a mystical wolf tee shirt.  He also wasn’t rocking the official Canadian belt buckle.  Needless to say, it was a clear omen from the stock gods and I sold the majority of my BBRY long.  I’ve kept a 1/3 runner in case Wayne Gretzky makes a surprise move onto the board of directors.

The wires are reporting AMBA in fact beat expectations, as was written in these halls for months by our fearless leader, Senor Tropicana.  As you know, I exited the position yesterday, but I’m still bullish on the name.  The GoPro is as cool as RedBull these days.

I slapped on a pretty sizable SKF position into the bell.  It seems in slight haste in hindsight, but I had just untethered myself from the /ES and found the action excessively befuddling.  Therefore I thought it prudent first to sell one of my longs.  But I looked at all of them, the little rug rats, and I couldn’t part ways with any.  So I tossed on the SKF hedge.

I sold a little bit of YGE but I’m keeping a small piece just in case it keeps going.

I took nearly a full size position in CLF early on, it looks hot.

Time to go home.


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On The Offensive

The S&P traded in a silly manner today, pressing higher without much by the way of a rotation lower.  The action had the strong scent of big money sloshing around, it smells like chemicals.  We finally rotated lower in the last half hour of trade, but not quite enough to allow me entry on the long side.

For the day I was up 1.5 trading discretionary using the Bossram cycle, and Elroi was down 1 handle.  Most of that vertical movement was untradeable with my toolbox.

It became clear early on I wouldn’t have much action in the /ES so I turned my focus to the stocks.  For some reason, likely the lower leverage, I’m much more careless with my entries.  I identified a quality entry point in BBRY today, but with the broad markets busting through resistance with ease I rushed my entry.  The trade ended up working out so far, but unnecessary risk was taken.  That’s the over analytic, slightly perturbed me talking about BBRY.

I’ve seen this daily chart pattern play out 100s of times: a stock is in a long trend, by long I mean months, quarters, or years.  Then it makes a sharp move higher (or lower) to a reference point, like the 9ema.  Then it throws down some price action that forms a letter ‘N’.  You buy that setup.  You buy that setup every time.  That was the case in BBRY today.  Having Cool Hand Luke aka #voodooshark aka RaginCajun as your wingman makes the trade even easier.  This evening I’ll be donning a Canadian belt buckle at the local grocery, and tomorrow a full Canadian tuxedo, regardless of the heat or itinerary.   Please refer to me as Drake, the name of all Canadian men.  That’s the long hair don’t care me talking about smacking BBRY around.

Sometimes a beautiful woman sullies her entire appearance by lacking confidence.  Take 20 minutes to practice your posture and enjoy the confidence it brings you.  Raul writes for the ladies.

I scored big wins in YGE, YELP, BBRY, AIXG, and TRLA today.

FB, USO, and END lagged. Meanwhile, RVLT was beaten over the head with a sack of nickels.  They need to land some big retrofits and blow the news out on the wires.  I have to stick with this name.  You probably shouldn’t.  This isn’t some hot sexy trade, like you all crave so rabidly.  This is a cold, passive aggressive relationship that will eventually fruit into something beautiful after several months of therapy.  At that point things will warm up.  Until then it’s the highs and lows of mood swings and recovery.  It’s a long way, to the top, if you want to rock and roll.

I added to RVLT today.


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Positioned for a Rally

Taking yourself out of the proverbial shark tank that is the stock market for a few days leads to some interesting observations.  Once outside the tank, you’re better able to observe the water you’ve been swimming around in.  It’s a higher sense of self understanding, if you will.

After buying AMBA Tuesday morning, I’ve been inactive.  This is in part because the purchase took my cash down under six percent.  What little cash I have left must be used to average into CREE and RVLT should the opportunities arise.

Speaking of RVLT, I’m now minus thirty percent on my basis.  Investing, it seems, is a tricky endeavor.  On one hand, I know they have to potential to make hundreds of millions of dollars retrofitting businesses with LEDS.  I also love the vertical model they’ve built with their recent acquisitions.  On the other hand, I’m in an ugly chart in a company that was up over 600 percent in one year’s time.  Yeah…

But I’m keeping my investor hat on and entrenching into the LED industry.  CREE, AIXG, and RVLT are multi quarter holdings.

Just before heading out last week, I increased my oil exposure.  Nice timing, yes?  I still have positions in END, MHR, and USO.  Until the Libyans find out they didn’t in fact kill Doc Brown because Mike Fox used the time machine to warn him to wear a vest, I’m sticking with these positions.  I may trim a bit of exposure into further strength.

I passed through no less than four po-dung towns on my travels, and in every case I depended on YELP to find my palatable food with a reasonable atmosphere.  I did the same in Traverse City, a much finer and top hatted community.  Why not use Google?  Because the YELP interface is BETTER, you jack asses.

ENPH and YGE are both lit sticks of dynamite.  I intend to stick said dynamite in the tail pipes of the shortmobile.

LO will succeed in addicting teenagers to Blu Eciggarets and I will collect a lovely coupon, much higher than any government or corporate paper, at little or no risk to my person.  Same goes for O, except for the teenager part.

IMMR, F, and FB round out my book of long positions.

I’ll be back this evening with an update on Bossram Alpha and El Roi, my drone strike robots.

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