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Tag Archives: $YGE

Where Is Santa?

The selling continues this afternoon, with sellers continuing their blitzkrieg campaign with a 2pm algorithmic shock wave.  A block trade like the one we just experienced at 2pm is a way of starting a siphon—the algo sucks on the tube with the intent of motivating atmospheric pressure to move liquid(ity).  Once it starts the flow, a force of equal or greater value must arrive to stop the force.

There’s nothing wrong with sell algos, they just receive more criticism then buy algos.  They are both attempting the same feat.

Keep the context of our market in mind.  It is mid-December, we have had a huge run, correlations are low, the long term trend is higher, risky assets continue seeing cash inflow, and sellers just controlled their first week since mid-summer.

With that in mind, and despite my extensive coverage of the indices, I think it is important to keep your focus on individual setups and how they are behaving.

My book is going out 95% long after purchasing OWW today at the top tick.  I have other names of interest, including LEDS basing just below one dollar.

My AMZN YOLO lottery ticket was a loser.  I risked the entire premium because it was a lottery ticket.  It had a moment of hope early on, but could not breach recent overhead supply.  The trade needed more time than one day.  I realized this soon after taking the trade, and was discussing how TSLA would have been a more prudent YOLO…if there is such a thing.

I never grabbed ENPH yesterday.  Instead I just watched it and commented on it.  Now I cannot buy it and it can likely go much higher.  I simply lack to conviction to assume nearly 20% more risk.

My book of stocks spun donuts in the mud this week even though I have winners among my ranks.  Here’s the book, largest-to-smallest:


Final word of on the market – this looks like discouragement phase, where the market makes an earnest attempt to steal away your favorite shares.  Review your risk plans, make adjustments where necessary, and stick to them.  Do not assume gains are guaranteed.

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My Violent Book of Stocks Is Unchanged

We are fast approaching one month of static returns for the book of Raul.  November 18th my book peaked in tandem with the swing high in ONVO and turned lower.  Still much a drunken off my superfluous hot streak, I bought WLT with funds from cashing out of AAPL (note: this required me buying said shares a few days later.  It was a sublime exit and reentry, traded like a true scalper, but perhaps more than necessary for a swing book) and cut losses on SFM and YGE.

A few short days later I bought the dip in GOGO and more CREE.  The GOGO and AMBA are who returned me to prior portfolio highs and propelled my book gingerly above prior high mark last Wednesday…you know, back when the market was going down and I was 90% long.  Then starting Thursday the bulls stampeded higher.  SOL also sent a chill across the collective spine of solar stocks, especially the YGE I have been so eagerly accumulating, effectively sending me back to Mid-November gains.

So much progress forfeited in the name of MOAR. The worst part is I like solar stocks even more at these prices.  Goodness, if my book had any cash lying around I would have been buying FSLR today.  Am I sick?  I do not believe so, when I observe the FSLR weekly chart (I know, stretching my timeframe to justify a trade) I see exactly the type of conditions I thrive in.  Have a look:

FSLR_WEEKLY_12082013So I may forego hitting my 33% return goal on my swing portfolio, darn…I really need that money January 1st to buy tacos and such.  I suppose what I am saying is I do not answer to anyone, this is my money, and I like my odds over the next few weeks.  It is the god damned holidays anyhow, who wants to be ferreting for giblets when they can play Edward ham hands?

I doubt however that I could play this trade as slow as LED.  That trade has been violently dead since the summer.  Net-net they are a very green shoot in my annual performance, but we have been operating on the wrong side of the chart for quite some time.  I suppose the shear age of this correction and my optimism for the industry as a whole is what has me currently positioned more aggressively now than I have been since early March.

Final thought, the NASDAQ is up 3% since November 18th.  I am unchanged.  This means nothing to you.  It means everything to me when I glue my brain to NASDAQ 2-6 hours per day.   Here’s me verses the indices:


I am still 100% long.  I tried doing something, anything today, and no matter how hard I tried I could not justify selling anything.  I feel good about that.  Selling for the sake of selling, driven mainly from emotions associated with wheel spinning, seems like work for the sake of work.

When something breaks I will fix it, and I can’t sell YGE down here.  I can sell it lower.  I can sell it higher, but I can’t sell it here.


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1800 in Sight


Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife.  He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt.  His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence.  He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”

And so went the day.  Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop.  The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.

We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long.  There was a mix of winners on the day.  The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class.  Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.

The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.

Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market.  Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use.  On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate.  LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.

I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:


Many of those are partials.  The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT

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Press The Boot

As horrendous as the news flow has been this week, I have these charts setting up something mint.  If I continue playing ostrich to the news, which is the plan, I have setups galore.  The market looks like a well-managed brothel and I am simply partaking in the services hoping the Feds don’t crash the party.

I bought WLT but the big story is the resurgence of LED stocks.  Everyone wrote them off after CREE reported soft numbers last quarter.  Yet here we go again, with these stocks ripping.  RVLT is leading the charge as my book propels over two percent higher on the day.

I switched over to trading the /NQ as I mentioned yesterday and I like the pace of trade much better.  I find I am babysitting positions less often.  Instead I am trading in a stick-and-move fashion that better suits my fringe lifestyle.

FaceBook will not relent and I would quite enjoy seeing it go Nicola Tesla on these shorts.  Being in a well-padded long, I see no reason to sell any.

Everything I sold continued to propel higher, so selling has been stupid.  Look at MHR and YGE.  Stupid.  Selling is for stoopid folks.

Press the boot and sip cognac instead.

Cash @ 18%

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The Real Reason Why I Tuned Out Today

You may be sitting in your little chair looking like a big man, thinking you’ve got Raul hammered down.  You think I turned off my twitter feeds and news flows because I did not want the political theater affecting my decision process while I ferret in and out of the futures market.  I know you rack your brain wondering what Raul is doing, I understand.

But you are wrong.

The real reasoning behind my news diet today was I have not seen the final episode of Breaking Bad yet.  And I have loved that show.  The last thing I want to read is some wonk making some jackass reference that blows the ending for me.  Oh I would hunt that small suit wearing no-neck down and teach him a thing or two about manners.

So I sat in blissful ignorance and made a few bucks trading futures.  Elroi made a few bucks too—was having a great day until he decided to short near the close, again, like a jack asshole, and I was not there to override.  But green still, which is good.  I may hard code a 3:15 pm deadline on Elroi, but I haven’t run the stats yet.

I bought VIPS and sold a little more YGE today.  That is it.  I still intend to hold my YGE runner until the ten dollar print, but I felt my trigger finger itching so I bailed on another third.  I bought VIPS before it has done anything yet.  Both of these moves seem premature so I must make a sacrifice to the gods this evening.  Perhaps my finest stock pick…developing…

I ended the day with my portfolio down 1.5% today which, given the huge gap lower, could have been much worse.  My fond memories of October tells me things are likely to get worse before better, but overall better.  However, I shall not overstay my welcome at the feeding trough. If I get the cut and run feel, I will cut—and of course run.

Nothing like a month end Monday, yes?

Note: I will not be reading any comments on this post until after I watch my teevee show, just in case there’s any wise crackers in the audience.

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Under My Ambarella

My book was up over two percent today.  The sheep were shepherded higher by the benevolent RVLT which rolled out the Power Point slides they will be using in their upcoming dog and pony show.  The pocket of momentum present in solar fizzled into the bell but still provided impressive gains this week.  I hardly see the run up in YGE being over, and given the ace entry earlier this week and the scaled piece, the best play seems to let my money work here instead of constantly fiddling with the knobs.

The afternoon was all about MHR.  This is another stock I nailed my entry on.  Patiently waiting for quality entries at well-researched levels, even when the battle is at its hottest, gives me a huge edge when it comes time to manage the position.  I don’t get that pinch on my shoulder blades telling me I am losing my cool.  Being up over 10 percent on the name in a scant three trading days and feeling the urge to scale, I decided to do the opposite and buy more.  It brings my average up but still keeps my cost basis within the consolidation range.  It was a good move according to risk.

October is fast approaching and I get the feeling the headless horseman is dusting off the cobwebs and making preparations to thrust his axe into my spine.  Thus, even though I am 95% long, I have a clear sight on the exits.  I feel like a squirrel foraging through a bountiful prairie while hiding from the hawks under a squirrel sized umbrella.  Stocks like AMBA, BALT, MHR, and YGE are giving this small rodent the courage of a lion.  I will eat the poachers faces and then go lay in some mud with the Rhinos.

Such is the life of a squirrel in a tuxedo.

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Stock Pickers Market and Deviating from The Trading Plan

For most of my tenure as a trader stocks have been treated like a singular asset class and thus tightly correlated to other macro instruments like bonds, the US dollar, gold, and oil.  The binary nature drove me to studying futures because if all stocks were hell-bent on moving as one, I might as well trade them all simultaneously with an ass load of leverage.

I love the futures markets.  They are pure order flow with no dependence on a company and their decisions.  But seeing good companies and more importantly good charts succeed even while the market chops around is exciting.

It makes me want to concentrate more funds into stock trading.

I got caught on the wrong side (the long side) of the quick drop this morning.  Even though I preach plan adherence, I deviated and had to take a ton of heat on my trade.  The poor entry, paired with a non-market related event which shall not be mentioned but which has officially created a rule, caused me to shake out of my long—I shit you not—one tick off the morning swing low (about 11am).  No less than five minutes later, what I had expected—a bit of a bounce to cut my loss into—occurred.

This was a huge setback to my futures trading, huge.  I am so sick of setbacks incurred from plan deviation.  They are huge drains on emotional capital.

I went and had some tacos with a friend.  We talked about hunting mushrooms and it was quite the stimulating conversation and helped clear my mind to assess everything.  Trading structure will be restored for tomorrow’s action and it is good to make these mistakes while trading small, believe me.

Focusing so much energy on work and trading futures allows me to think much more slowly about stocks.  The more I learn from the excellent traders and stock pickers here at iBankCoin the better this approach feels.  My book is up 2.5% today while the Big Board chops the UNCH.

RVLT is a big part of the green portfolio, but it is getting plenty of help from IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, and FB.  My account is straight crack rock and ripping.

I see a huge consolidation occurring, as if we are waiting for news flow to get this party started.  Bull or bear, a party is near—I can hear the bass rumbles in the distance.  Until this decision is clearly made, I will hold the line, 90% long.

My slow money is in AIXG, LO, RVLT, MJNA, FB, O, F, and CREE

My fast money is in AMBA, IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, RBCN, and CLF

I still hold a sharp edge in the futures market and my win/loss ratio shows it.  The p/l however does not yet because of setbacks.  This isn’t over until I win which is simply a matter of time, not if.  This week however, my stock gains are casting a bright glow on my futures losses.

Pro Tip:  Like any business, be sure you are sufficiently capitalized.  Better yet, have other revenue streams so this learning process doesn’t come with the added stress of keeping a roof over your head.


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Turnaround Tuesday

There was an interesting occurrence this morning right before we printed the low of the day.  Price traded down to the overnight lows and then completely stalled.  This was right about when the POTUS took to the podium.  Then, as I had suggested may occur, we breached the overnight (yesterday) low briefly, the flow of stop losses created a temporary oversold condition, buyers reacted to seeing the weak sellers and a sharp buying tail printed on the /ES market profile. We also snapped the following trend line lower, finally:


I bought the YGE full sized amidst all this.  It was very lovely execution that brings a little sparkle to Raul’s eye.

The velocity of the move was enough to put plenty of shorts in the hole.  It should make for an interesting afternoon as value is being set higher then I expected in my scenario 1 balance hypothesis.

With today’s YGE purchase, I am about 85% long, mostly crack rock stocks—stocks like CREE, RVLT, YGE, AMBA, MHR, FB, RBCN, and CLF.

Can you believe I am nearly up 100% on my FB common?  I’m holding steady until at least $100.

The weak-to-strong closing type would be a change of character in the recent market activity and we may be looking at an inflection point.  It is a bit early to tell, but I like my aggressive positioning here.

I intend to use my winnings to finance the purchase of a Tesla Model S, the greatest automobile currently in production.

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Finishing My Coffee

The market has been unable to compel me into action today.  Instead I have sat here drinking coffee and watching my peers rip the faces off of shorts with supreme ultra-violence.  My goodness, RaginCajun extracts a solid win off of EGLE, passes the baton to Le Fly and here we are, winning the relay.

One of my twitter buds was all over the shippers move too, well done @Apoms24 on the DRYS.

The day after a huge move, overnight or RTH, tends to be tricky intraday.  Therefore, I sat in the bleachers and enjoyed the view.

Book largest-to-smallest: CREE, RVLT, RBCN, AIXG, Z, MHR, FB, CLF, LO, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O

Cash: 20%

Tickers of interest: YGE, FSLR, ONVO, ZNGA, FRO, END, and GMCR

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The Overplay for the Underlay

Well how about that morning /ES session?  Quite the contrast to yesterday and the paint drying we were subjected to.

I had a great little scalp long at the open.  Then I engaged Bossram even though I wanted to see a test of yesterday’s VAH first.  I adhered to Bossram.  It took a loss on the long side, then it engaged short, and took a loss on the short side.

The bad news is I took 2 losses in a row trading Bossram, the good news is they trades were fully plan compliant, and could have been much worse had I not adhered to the plan.

Typically, it goes on a huge win streak at this point, so the key is to continue to engage.  But probabilities are probabilities, every trade is a coin toss.

Elroi scored one short for 1.75 handles and is currently taking heat in another short.

Onto my portfolio:

I sold some scraps out of my book, remaining runners in YELP, BBRY, and YGE.  I also bought more SKF.  Whether or not that trade works out is very much still debatable.

No reason to be down on these losses or saying adios to my winners, it’s time to dig my heels in.


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