Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:42pm ESTComments Off on The Endless Sea of Opportunity
The inefficiencies of the market place are working their way to the surface this week, or so it seems to my eyes. I want fresh cash ready to deploy into the market so I used this morning’s strength to toss out some old names and make way for new.
I closed out my TPX long near $40. I thought it best to avoid staring at this gift horse for too long. I lost 9 percent on the trade. Not too shabby. I like when I get excited about a loss, it means big wins are near.
I closed my EXK runner out too. The USA dollar was ripping overnight and I’m not trying to get fancy. The runner was still 4 percent in the profit so I cashed it out.
I cut AMBA, I’m not liking what the tea leaves are showing:
I planned on selling GTAT and OCZ this morning too, but after hesitating a brief moment they’re both back in the slop trough with other opportunities.
These sales brought my cash up to 50 percent. I may miss a big blow off move on the Fed this afternoon, but should we see a downdraft I’ll be more prepared to pounce.
Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:37pm ESTComments Off on That Was Fast
And just like that I’m managing a -10% position. It’s 2/3 size too, dragging my book down nearly a full percentage. I’m talking about none other than action camera extraordinaire Ambarella, Inc.
“It just happened so fast.” – Famous last words.
Seriously though, this is what happens when you’re caught in a momentum downdraft. There were too many weak hands in this name apparently. Perhaps the weak hands still exist, flailing around, in need of correction.
I’ll have you know I’ve been corrected my entire life. My 4th grade teacher would slap my hands with a yard stick for disrupting Bible studies. Even with carbon dating, I could never convince her dinosaurs existed.
“God put dinosaur bones in the ground to test our faith in Jesus.” Right…may I have another slice of Jesus body? I’m starving.
With AMBA, we’re in an IPO environment and the company creates camera components. It’s not some social concept that curious minds gather around and debate where the money comes from. IT COMES FROM SELLING PRODUCT. There ought to be some buyers down here, perhaps at my final buying tranche.
I’ve clearly built into the name too soon, enticed by the virgin blood. I’m in bed with the name now, prepared to deploy more capital between $15.50 – $14.25.
TPX went on a rally today, still my largest position, and perhaps I should just cut my losses at this point, down a mere 10 percent. Perhaps, but the chart resembles bracketed trade, ranging from 35 – 50 so the greater risk at this very moment is to the downside. That is, if my bracket theory is correct.
FaceBook is really bringing some heat to the market. It’s exciting to see.
I had quite the run on GTAT today, but I’ve already sold most of it, booking a cool 6 percent in profits. I’ll always grab that bread when it’s offered. I still hold a runner that wants more, more, more.
I’ve held AIXG for so long, since June, and it has done NOTHING. HOWEVER, it has done nothing. All the while Europe is sucking, including Aixtron’s brethren from another reverend Deutsche Bank whiffing on earnings. So perhaps any updraft will lift this name with great vengeance and furious anger? I’ll stick around a bit longer. This is my German LED play, BTW.
I have several other small positions, 25% cash, and a 10% FXY position as we ride into a very headline heavy day tomorrow. I suppose I’m feeling lucky.
Tue Jul 30, 2013 11:32am ESTComments Off on Book Talk
I’m having an interesting morning as the Chinese say, with much to keep my attention and interest. I closed out FIVE for a 2% loss after the broad market lost its momentum.
Early on I had eyes on both GTAT and RBCN, suspecting one of the sapphire names to run. I went with GTAT and the position is up 2 percent so I should be happy right? Wrong! RBCN was the choice to make, up as much as 10 percent on the day.
TPX is working off some of the post-earnings selloff and the only news I see is they’re supplying the Chicago Bears with beds during training camp. Please dispose of said beds in the proper biohazard receptacle afterwards.
FB lead by heartthrob Mark Zuckerberg is gliding along like a boat on the Spanish Riviera, all the while Marc whispering sweet nothings into my ear.
AMBA is going full Jeb Corliss for the time being. I like it because it lets me know the name has a pulse. Remember, momentum cuts both ways.
One long in the S&P futures, took a 1.5 handle loss. The trade had an 85 % plan compliance.
Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:37pm ESTComments Off on Planning My Next Move
It was a week of setbacks in the market for yours truly, being on the receiving end of two major blows. Going into the weekend, I had to rid myself of one of these losers and of the two, TPX and ENPH, I decided to cut ENPH.
It was not an easy choice but it was most certainly a necessary choice. I want loose capital, ready to pounce of fresh ideas. Hell, I may even buy some ENPH next week, who really knows?
There were big winners this week. Zillow spent most of the week pressing into the necks of their high short float…I wish I hadn’t sold, but perhaps we’ll get a downdraft next week to latch onto.
Facebook was hands down the darling of the market, perhaps restoring the confidence of the disheartened retail investor. I knew this day would come, where I would have a low cost basis in the name, able to now kick back and let the future pan out.
I made OCZ full size early last week, a rare move even for me. To go full size in a sub $2.00 stock takes a certain amount of gumption and laser clear risk parameters. As dicey as it seemed to hold the position for 8 sessions with zero progress, it continued to behave constructive. It was only a matter of time until the shorts were spooked. Today, I sold ¼ @ 1.75 earning around 5% and another ¼ at 1.825 (damn algos) earnings over 8%. It’s a great trade so far: a very constructive chart with lots of shorts to fuel a rally and a company that creates wonderful value for the world. I love it.
I’m beginning to see the potential of smoking shorts out of their favorite hiding places in this aging bull market. With the tools this site provides, I intend to do exactly that.
I backed off the futures this week, taking a more passive approach. They intrigue me to no end, and I see huge potential in trading them, but my interest is shifting to day trading these momentum stocks. There’s an edge to be had in sousing short sellers with the buy cannon and grabbing .40-.50 cents in movement. If you align your orders with a change in trend in the /es, you’re riding the tide holding a water bazooka. It just sounds fun! And I want to put more capital towards this new sport.
I’ve accepted that TPX will likely trade down to $35.00. Then I want to see how this price level is met as it is of HUGE importance. I may buy more shares, I may sell, or I may simply hold on to what I have.
This has been another fantastic week working alongside the brightest minds in finance, and I look forward to doing it all again next week. Have a great weekend.
I’m such a sucker for Bruno Mars, I can’t help it…he reminds me of James Brown in this video, enjoy:
Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:04pm ESTComments Off on FACE PLANT!
TPX missed on the top and bottom line, took a big hit repatriating some money, and in general blew it. As did I. Shares are down over 10 percent after hours. For all intents and purposes, this stock has given back all of its 2013 gains.
Clearly the synergies have not taken effect.
I’ll be a seller tomorrow morning. It’s going hurt, like pulling out a nasty splinter.
I’ve relaxed my style quite a bit on this recent leg of the rally, and the market has stepped and cordially accepted my donations to the market.
If you remember back when I started this TPX trade back up, everything went swimmingly. I made the position huge, but I took my first scale. It was nice. And it was all downhill after that sale. I never had another pop or bounce or pump for me to lighten up into. Perhaps this should have been my signal.
There were all kinds of phone calls and channel checks. When I asked if business was booming, I was informed that was an understatement.
LISTEN: IN THIS GAME YOU HAVE TO RELY ON YOURSELF AND YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. More importantly, when you’re in a hole, don’t expect anyone to reach down and pull you out. You’re on your own. Go tell someone your problems and they’ll put their palms out, “fuck you, pay me.”
And that’s fine because I like it that way. We’re learning over here on the Raul blog, me and you… that earnings are to be respected.
You take a bet and when you’re wrong you move on. So yes, I’ll be cutting this lost tomorrow morning and moving on.
The money made in FB should finance most of this loss. My wheels continue to spin in the mud.
Now I must patiently find my next spot, my next winners. You’re only as good as your last trade so I’ll be taking my time, tending to my existing hot irons, and remerging to crush the tape.
I don’t want your sympathy for even a second. I knew what I was doing. Let’s instead uncover the next big winner.
I like AMBA, very slowly.
I think we’ll get ANGI at better prices after today’s blood bath, and I like it.
Zillow is such a beast and I sold it way to soon. May its earnings spook the investor community so we can reenter.
I still think AIXG can do wonderful things, but this thing trades awfully.
I like being long the Yen here too, oddly enough.
I’ll be mining The PPT this weekend to hone in on the money flows too.
I’m off to eat a slice of humble pie, served via a 40 mile bike ride.
While most investors’ attention will be on the numbers about to come out from AMZN, I will be all eyes on the bedding industry, more specifically TPX. They’re also set to report after the bell and it’s currently my largest position.
I’ve thrown caution to the wind, embraced my cannoli, and I’m jumping into these dark waters with no floaters. May I be greeted by lovely naked mermaids!
Everyone’s expecting big numbers due to the unite the clans merger of Sealy and TempurPedic.
Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:14pm ESTComments Off on Kick Fighting
The Facebook, led by a fearless byproduct of my generation’s upbringing (kickass video games and cable), has reemerged as an endearing member of the Wall Street community because, let’s be honest, they’re making money. Lots of it. And that’s all we really care about, right?
I needed some winship because for real, my portfolio is getting HAMMERED.
Listen, I’m not one to cower behind my losses, suggesting caveats existed and expanding my verbiage to sound smart. I’m smart as shit, you know that. The ‘junk in my trunk’ is being iron pressed into the proverbial hotplate long ENPH in size. Support held on the first go of it, barely, and I’m still in possession of my shares, barely. I can barely muster the strength to keep it, but I am merely a shepherd to the solar stocks and I must lead them to greener pastures. Today I fended off the wolves, barely, and as I walk east to the Promised Land a warm sun kisses my weary shoulders…barely.
On to the important matter of Sealy Tempur-Pedic and their perverted bed salesmen, I like what I’m seeing. I can’t sit here, behind my keyboard, and act like I’m some expert in the fundamentals of mergers. Hell, I’m not an expert in any fundamentals for that matter. I’ve been digging around all week, trying to understand this weakness. Select Comfort (SCSS) missed last week Wednesday citing increased input costs. On the surface, this seems like it could affect our TPX, but that’s not the case. Select Comfort has been investing in their stores, technology, and product development all in an attempt to remain competitive. That’s squeezing their operating income down.
So a sympathy move in TPX makes less sense than the fashion styling’s of Kris Kross. On the other hand, housing stats have been strong for months everywhere but the Midwest and let’s face it; Midwestern folk are a bunch of frugal penny pinchers anyhow. Hell they’d use a rock for a pillow if it saved them money to buy lotto tickets and fuel up their oversized SUVs. So as much as I wanted to scale down this TPX long before Thursday’s earnings call, I may just have to throw caution to the wind, middle finger in the air, and take what’s coming to me.
Obviously I’ve been emboldened by Ford and Facebook.
The rapid depreciation of my equities in general has upped my cash to 22 percent. There were no trades taken today, I just let the losses effervesce in my bowels.
As risk flies off the table today, my book is getting pulverized, down around 1.5% 2% as I type. Leading the march lower after taking a minute to wake are gold and silver. I told you this is a run-and-gun industry to mess with. EXK has given back all its gains already. Having scaled only 1/3 of my position off so far, I’m confronted with a curious proposition, do I cut the net and take my small door prize or do I stick to the plan? Sticking to the plan results in a small loss, nearly a scratch, but sticking to the plan could make a solid gain, I’ll give it another day or two.
Solar stocks are getting pounded to pieces by incessant sell orders also. This happened around mid-June and it was a fantastic buying opportunity. This time it looks like we’re all doomed…so it’s an excellent buying opportunity. The only difference between then and now is where the indices reside relative to the industry. Back then we were on pins hoping the bottom wouldn’t fall out of the entire shithouse, today we’re day one of selling from all-time highs…hmm…
My largest position is due for earnings tomorrow after the bell and the chart is suggesting nothing positive. TPX has essentially become a coin toss. I’m at a real crossroads here, sitting a tad under -3% on the name. I planned on lightening up before earnings but now it feels like a rip-off because I think they crush and guide. A betting man at heart, young enough to absorb a gravity hammer to the dome, I may just go for it…this is a young man’s game after all.
My pseudo hedge FXY is down nearly a percentage alongside the market. Cool of me to get fancy, no?
I’m not shorting the /es futures at all because I’m too distracted so no relief from that front.
On the plus side because there’s always a plus side, I took a ¾ size long into the F earnings, that’s helping a bit. OCZ is bucking the trend, but I doubt it can breakout amidst the overall market weakness. AIXG is undergoing a nice bounce back after Europe reported very strong factory data, and I have a modest sized FB long which I will carry into this afternoon’s Marc love fest. #timestamp that, we’re all going to love Marc Zuckerberg after today’s announcement. We’re going to gang poke him until he can’t see straight.
After spending the morning getting myself well positioned in the futures, talking a bit of smack on the twitter network, and other general business tasks I grew hungry.
The pickle of it all was my damn minions aren’t here today, bastards.
So I had to go get some grub myself, oh the humanity.
And while I did, I was sequestered from my kickass electronics and forced to view the market through the lens of an iPhone. Stupid-archaic-fossil phone!
As luck would have it, I was well positioned in the futures, buying 1687.25 in the ES_F. I took a scale at a point and a quarter because the sellers appeared as if they would not relent. Then as I cursed society’s insistence on dawdling through life, a small burst of selling caught me off guard and I covered my long for +0.75.
At that very moment, the move I planned on riding occurred, back the VPOC, without Raul. All because I had to fetch my own food.
So far I missed my first scale in EXK too, because I held out for a few more pennies. I’m sure it still gets it, but I wanted to get my first scale quick to fulfill the old instant gratification desire.
ENPH is plagued by a seller in and around $7.50, a jackass really. TPX, my only position larger than ENPH, has been a cold fish for weeks, freezing my assets in place. Do you see how much time I’m wasting?
Instead of getting frustrated, I went and talked to strangers about anything and everything besides the markets: the rampant bug infestations occurring, the blood red moon, the biblical rain storms…you know, stuff the common folk discuss.
The old me would be stalking EXK today like I did Miley Cyrus last time she was in town, but I’m comporting myself with a bit more grace and self-respect today…like Pepe Le Pew. I learned not to chase miners, EXK in particular, through a long history of daggered hairpin reversals. The name is volatile, I felt early on that I missed the action, therefore I did. I’ll have to tickle my fancies with something else today.
I’ve quite enjoyed being kicked in the scrotum this morning by my newly minted long OCZ. They came out with some preliminary earnings data rather out of the blue, and lo and behold they’re still combating supply issues. “SUPPLIES!” …no surprise. There are worse problems for a company to have, like no sales. Anyway, the stock market is the final arbiter. If the name doesn’t shape up into the bell I may axe it (no piker body spray puke).
I sold a bit more O which is fantastic, this trade played out LOCKSTEP, and now I have my final 1/3 which the market must work very hard to take from my person, as my cost basis (net of booked profits) is now $38.50 aka well below swing lows. I hope we take out the recent swing low, run some stops, and then I’ll add some back on. This is going to be my new AWK, collecting me a coupon while I skip to my lou though the market minefield.
My solar trifecta has me more pleasured than Lil Wayne ‘turked up’ on opiates at a stripper convention. Take your pick: YGE, FSLR, and ENPH the sector is leading higher just as prophesied by the immortal Le Fly and other iBC cast members. Use the green juice to power some CREE bulbs and you’re on the right track, guy.
DDD and PRLB did this morning what I like to call the bear pinch: drive lower, pullback for shorts to enter, make a new low, barely, than quickly rip higher, leaving asshole bears stuck in their underwater positions. Have a great afternoon you harry bastards, it’s hot out there.
RVLT finally lifted off and it has done so without me. I’m instead nearly balls deep in German LED play AIXG, down 1 percent. All dogs have their day, RVLT is a decent company, but they’re no CREE or AIXG fundamentally. RVLT is an instrument for degenerates to trade.
I’m happy to have paired my IMMR with some INVN because to me, they’re the same thing: new tech, chips. INVN appears to be more en vogue.
F won’t let good Americans in unless their 401-k is set to ‘auto-allocate’.
FB still wants to win, while you’re looking elsewhere.
I’ll never own enough Z, but I own it nonetheless.
TPX is still my largest. You will all feel its gentle wrath.
Who thinks BPZ has another squeeze in it? (Raises hand)
That’s my book in a nutshell. I’m considering an FXY long as protection. Call it Kong hedging. iBC is becoming a formidable beast.