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Tag Archives: $AMBA

Mid-Month Checkup

Stocks went bananas today, and our latest big shot short seller has been made to either run for his life or dig his heels in.  Nothing says welcome to the New Year like having your lolli snatched from your pudgy hand, yes my friend?  I profiled a massive seller Monday morning.  The market sat, literally for hours, while the bid in NASDAQ futures was PUMMELED with aggressive sell orders.  The market gave way and promptly sliced to the bottom of intermediate term balance.  I screwed up a bit, selling calls in TSLA that would have launched me into the stratosphere.  Instead, I only rode 90% of my book long for a much more modest ascent.

I sold some positions down today.  I scaled exposure down in CREE, TSLA, and YGE.  I closed C outright ahead of earnings which I later regretted but perhaps tomorrow will exude as genius timing, right?  Honestly, I think they rip post earnings and I wish I had a runner still.  I sold OWW finally too.  This was a December seasonality statistic trade that morphed into a swing trade before finally morphing into a waste of time.  I scratched it as I have no patience for stocks exuding insolence to a broad market on the move.  That is, unless they are sitting out a broad correction.

Today the strength in LITB caused it to swell to my largest portfolio holding.  LITB has taken the proper gaunt stance to propel itself deep into the anus of short sellers.  Something like this:


Later in the day, I scaled 1/3 of my MLNX long and parlayed it into MCP.  These are trades RaginCajun and I are navigating with our distinct SHANK and BANK strategy.  Here we are celebrating:


Lastly, I opened up some February $60 calls in FSLR.  TAN worries me, the solar ETF, but aside from that little detail, I love this FSLR chart.  Plus, if I win I get to talk smack about the old men at Goldman Satchel purse.  Making money comes first, but roasting Old Wall comes in at a close second.  I know, armature.  I don’t care.   Most of you guys are way too serious.

I have 6% cash, the market is fueled by degenerate stocks, and I am up 6% YTD.  I should just close my book and call it a year, but instead I will press on, hopefully amusing my readers in the process.

I have a bunch of selfies of myself doing birkram yoga in LULUs that I will slowly release as my LULU trade starts to work.



Want list: FB, AMBA, and GS

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1800 in Sight


Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife.  He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt.  His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence.  He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”

And so went the day.  Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop.  The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.

We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long.  There was a mix of winners on the day.  The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class.  Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.

The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.

Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market.  Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use.  On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate.  LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.

I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:


Many of those are partials.  The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT

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I Trust My Money to Good Stocks: You Should Too

Ladies, gentlemen, please…allow me a moment to address the market.

You may not make it down to the Raul blog often, but I reside rather gingerly on the front page of iBankCoin.  I know that my continued existence in these hallowed halls amongst the finest strangers the internet has to offer depends on one very important matter: banking coin at criminal rates.

After exhibiting complacency two weeks ago Friday I have been on the receiving end of a severe bludgeoning via shares of PPC due to a salmonella scare.  I regret to inform you I was forced out of this position today and took a large loss.  Let’s talk about large losses.

This was a ten percent position and I stopped out at twelve and a half percent.  Math:


I lost 1.2% of my account value.  Part of me wanted to ride the stock into earnings for the glory.  I envisioned myself riding into town on a chicken-drawn chariot with plebs laying olive branches on the street.  Upon reaching to town square I would be handed the ceremonial staff to perform a blessing of the populares, restoring balance to the social classes.

But in a rather stoic manner I cut the shares loose.  Because the truth is public perception is fickle.  Many of you are simple, as am I, and lack the resources or time to give a company a full fundamental shake.  I know inputs to making chicken meat are down across the board, but so does anyone else who analysis this company.  Elon Musk set a new standard with his quick assessment and public response to the Model S fire and now I expect the same from all companies.  I get Old Wall Street silence instead.  So PPC and its shareholders can go fly a kite for all I care and I’m back in the sewers, hungry as ever.

I cut LEDS too.  Perhaps the critics were fiddling with their catalytic converters when I scaled 10% profits one day into my campaign.  That would justify tossing tomatoes in my direction when I cut my net position for a scratch.

Finally, I cut SCTY.  Let’s say you love bath salts but all you can find on sale is old fashioned Mexican speedball.  You decide something is better than nothing and in your constant urge for instant gratification you gobble like ten Mexican speedballs.  But since you want that bath-salt-bug-eyed rage fueling your body while you chew arms off hobos, you find the speed only providing an uneasy feeling in the pit of your stomach.  That’s why I cut SCTY for a 3.4% loss.

My final move was buying a modest allotment of AMBA shares.  Morgan Stanly flip flops and the investment community dumps Ambarella?  GMAFB.  Well actually, you did give me a break because this was an opportunity to get back on board stock in a great company.  I liked it at 22, why wouldn’t I love it at 20?  I am a buyer of further weakness.

Now I have 22% cash power to buy some blood and a stable of stocks fit for an entrepreneur.  Largest-to-smallest friends, largest-to-smallest like always:

GOGO (huge), LO (+15% what?), ONVO, WLT (Walter), RVLT (a love/hate), AMBA (SAIL!), SFM, CREE, SLW, F, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and the big O

That is a hot look.  I like this basket of stocks.  I have a few names I want to add to the pot to get back to full long exposure but I am content to ride into tomorrow’s spooky trade with some cashish. The Fly’s ALJ has the look, FB is making ATH after hours, and YELP is at a slight discount.

FINALLY: YOU SHOULD COME INSIDE 12631.  There is a free trial tomorrow and Friday ONLY.  I do my best work in there with little-to-no shenanigans.  I would love to see some of my twitter buddies in there.  The password for the free trial will be released at midnight, so you vampires can come inside tonight and kick some ideas around and us normal folk will see you bright and early.


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Odds Morgan Stanley has a clue about AMBA: zero

If you buy AMBA because of this post your child will take up base jumping, and you may lose money

don’t be like me



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Big Win for The Seller

The market kicked into high gear this morning shortly after breaking down out of the consolidation we closely observed Sunday evening.

The idea was simple, and with it, I saved myself from the nauseating task of watching news which is centrally focused on politics.  Instead I could watch price and determine how to manage my portfolio accordingly.

When everything started breaking down early on I sold off all my shares in WLT, FB, AMBA, and BALT.  They were hard decisions to make because I didn’t want to sell any of them, but I knew there were major implications to that consolidation snap.  Also The Fly has been preparing us for a correction rather extensively.  After all of the selling my portfolio was bulked up with over 40% cash.

We are closing on the lows of the day after a high volume, large range selling candle.  Something tells me there will be better opportunities to buy soon and I want plenty of cash on hand.

The seller I was observing Sunday evening seemed big by how the orders were carried about—absorbing buy flow at the offer for a full day.  They just won big time and today’s tape is likely to embolden them.  Do not discount the bears at this junction.

At the same time keep your eyes on stocks that are trading in a microcosm.  Notice how financials aren’t as beaten down as tech.  That’s because they were dogs all last quarter.  We are nearing the time to consider another Goldman Sachs long.

Bottom line: stay cool and get out your shopping lists, but move slowly.

Top picks: CREE and RVLT, my two largest positions


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I Am The Lizard King

I can do anything.

We sure do cover the /ES_F often over here on the Raul blog, discussing its…implications, if you will.  Building the contextual cake helps me to identify abnormalities, flinches, and hand tips by the big money.   The E-mini S&P is the most liquid financial instrument in the world.  It makes sense to pay attention to it.

But trading it has become a slow and painful grind.  It is like going years without a dish washer even though you love to cook.  You get by, but your soul dies a little every day.

I needed some change (No Obama) so I traded the /NQ.  I like the NQ…peep today’s stats:



  • today had a large range
  • /NQ is thinner
  • smaller contract size suits my size a bit nicer
  • I trade lots of Nasdaq and Russell stocks so I may be concentrating my eggs
  • It offers more trading opportunities (at least lately)

/ES has been brain numbing, while I go ‘big pimpin’ on these wiry stocks.  Speaking of which, my book was up a percent today.  That is a result of stock prowess and hanging out with traders much more seasoned then me.  Mainly my gains today were a result of being on the right end of a technology revolution.  So while sour bastards get their kicks shorting Tesla, which is fine, I am embracing the future and finding opportunities to invest in it.

In short: CREE and RVLT what what?

I started buying ONVO too, right about at these levels.  You can’t keep me out of this name.  When my pickled organs give out I want robots around to print new ones.  Seems like a no brainer at five fifty.  I consider it an investment in myself.

I sold YGE.  It felt like when I sold VIPS yesterday…too soon-ish.  However, dwelling on these thoughts prohibits the mind from seeking opportunity elsewhere.  I sold RBCN too, for a loss, because it sort of just fell out after mainlining hot money.  I do not want to be around when the Apple WWDC crowd goes running for the doors, should they do so.

ADHD is a ticker which by design frustrates me, ripping higher like a freshman jacked up on Mountain Dew and Ripped Fuel.  Ah high school…when ephedra was still legal.  I have wanted a long on this one for a few weeks but my attention keeps darting away from it.  Instead I want to Snapchat and play ping pong in the futures.

I do not really love the way we are setting up into the weekend.  The market looks like the headless horseman.  Sentiment sucks but the crowd isn’t always wrong.  I have concentrated by book down to the following positions listed largest to smallest:


That jackass MJNA stock can burn up and go to zero for all I care.  What a garbage stock.  I am -20% on that field play.  I thought about cutting O about 100 times, but I figure keep it and collect the yield.  My basis is a tad below here.

Everything else I hold close to chest.  As a matter of fact, I need more CREE and RVLT but I am exercising patience.  Together the stocks represent almost 30% of my risk capital.

I will let Q4 play out a bit before getting more risk into those two names.  In the mean time I can increase my LED exposure via VECO, RBCN, GTAT, OESX, and LYTS.

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+ 10%

Through the thick Michigan overcast a blinding beacon of light hast parted the clouds and shined down upon la casa de Raul.  The gods of the stock market saw fit to order their mortal servants (Goldman Sachs) to upgrade the LED sector, levitating my portfolio to unseen highs.

While the indices diddle more than a Sunday school preacher my book of stocks like VIPS, BALT, AMBA, and MHR are ripping the doors off this market.  Counter trend shorts hiding throughout this market are feeling the cold hand of Raul on their necks just before I choke slam them into margin calls.

I did all of this choke slamming and raised my cash above 20 percent.  I have 20 percent cash on hand ready and willing to deploy into hot charts and the blooming LED industry.

Not a share of CREE or RVLT has been sold.  Instead I hold these bits and bites of numbers attached to letters close to chest, weary of any passer by admiring them.  They’re mine!  The precious…

So yeah, I’m on one.

10% in one day would tell the rational person their eggs are too concentrated.  But I never set out to be rational.  I am on a quest for vanishing edge pools and car stables.  I want to stop eating bullshit meat.  I want my meat to live a happy life…rolling in the grass and soaking up sunrays while raising a family.  Then I want the farmer to give that sweet meat the best meal of its life.  Then, like the mafia, quietly sneak up behind the beast and boom!  Dome them, very clean.  I need to make the monies so I can visit my meat and get to know its quirky lifestyle and name.  My meat will not be imprisoned.

Then I’m going to eat that meat poolside, off a model’s ass, while she lies on the hood of my Tesla Model S.

What I am trying to say is I bought more RVLT.  I had too much money after I scratched AIXG.  NEIN!  Nine times that god damn German ADR head faked higher.  Pathetic.

Before I digress any further—good evening to you.  Let’s do this again tomorrow.


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Under My Ambarella

My book was up over two percent today.  The sheep were shepherded higher by the benevolent RVLT which rolled out the Power Point slides they will be using in their upcoming dog and pony show.  The pocket of momentum present in solar fizzled into the bell but still provided impressive gains this week.  I hardly see the run up in YGE being over, and given the ace entry earlier this week and the scaled piece, the best play seems to let my money work here instead of constantly fiddling with the knobs.

The afternoon was all about MHR.  This is another stock I nailed my entry on.  Patiently waiting for quality entries at well-researched levels, even when the battle is at its hottest, gives me a huge edge when it comes time to manage the position.  I don’t get that pinch on my shoulder blades telling me I am losing my cool.  Being up over 10 percent on the name in a scant three trading days and feeling the urge to scale, I decided to do the opposite and buy more.  It brings my average up but still keeps my cost basis within the consolidation range.  It was a good move according to risk.

October is fast approaching and I get the feeling the headless horseman is dusting off the cobwebs and making preparations to thrust his axe into my spine.  Thus, even though I am 95% long, I have a clear sight on the exits.  I feel like a squirrel foraging through a bountiful prairie while hiding from the hawks under a squirrel sized umbrella.  Stocks like AMBA, BALT, MHR, and YGE are giving this small rodent the courage of a lion.  I will eat the poachers faces and then go lay in some mud with the Rhinos.

Such is the life of a squirrel in a tuxedo.

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Stock Pickers Market and Deviating from The Trading Plan

For most of my tenure as a trader stocks have been treated like a singular asset class and thus tightly correlated to other macro instruments like bonds, the US dollar, gold, and oil.  The binary nature drove me to studying futures because if all stocks were hell-bent on moving as one, I might as well trade them all simultaneously with an ass load of leverage.

I love the futures markets.  They are pure order flow with no dependence on a company and their decisions.  But seeing good companies and more importantly good charts succeed even while the market chops around is exciting.

It makes me want to concentrate more funds into stock trading.

I got caught on the wrong side (the long side) of the quick drop this morning.  Even though I preach plan adherence, I deviated and had to take a ton of heat on my trade.  The poor entry, paired with a non-market related event which shall not be mentioned but which has officially created a rule, caused me to shake out of my long—I shit you not—one tick off the morning swing low (about 11am).  No less than five minutes later, what I had expected—a bit of a bounce to cut my loss into—occurred.

This was a huge setback to my futures trading, huge.  I am so sick of setbacks incurred from plan deviation.  They are huge drains on emotional capital.

I went and had some tacos with a friend.  We talked about hunting mushrooms and it was quite the stimulating conversation and helped clear my mind to assess everything.  Trading structure will be restored for tomorrow’s action and it is good to make these mistakes while trading small, believe me.

Focusing so much energy on work and trading futures allows me to think much more slowly about stocks.  The more I learn from the excellent traders and stock pickers here at iBankCoin the better this approach feels.  My book is up 2.5% today while the Big Board chops the UNCH.

RVLT is a big part of the green portfolio, but it is getting plenty of help from IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, and FB.  My account is straight crack rock and ripping.

I see a huge consolidation occurring, as if we are waiting for news flow to get this party started.  Bull or bear, a party is near—I can hear the bass rumbles in the distance.  Until this decision is clearly made, I will hold the line, 90% long.

My slow money is in AIXG, LO, RVLT, MJNA, FB, O, F, and CREE

My fast money is in AMBA, IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, RBCN, and CLF

I still hold a sharp edge in the futures market and my win/loss ratio shows it.  The p/l however does not yet because of setbacks.  This isn’t over until I win which is simply a matter of time, not if.  This week however, my stock gains are casting a bright glow on my futures losses.

Pro Tip:  Like any business, be sure you are sufficiently capitalized.  Better yet, have other revenue streams so this learning process doesn’t come with the added stress of keeping a roof over your head.


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A Friendly Reminder That Everything You See Is Fake

Blocking out the news flow is difficult but the blissful ignorance that comes from it is worth the effort.  Remember if something is important, my well curated twitter stream will tell me.  Better yet, the professionals inhabiting the many rooms of iBankCoin will tell me.  Anything local will be filtered to me via family, colleagues, and friends.  This frees my mind to focus on order flow and sustaining and growing my revenues.

Some days however, often after eating too heavy of a lunch, my attention span degrades by the minute.  For that reason I mostly do not trade futures in the afternoon.  Instead I usually read, stare out the window, or look at Tina Fey nip slip pics.  Nip slips always get my a.d.d. all worked up.

Anyhow, today I closed green by 1.25% even though I was up a rock star 3% intraday.  I scaled off a bit of YGE.  I could afford to do so because I timed my entry perfectly. The market provided me 7% gains, you see, by the time we reached swing high.  I will book that bread any day of the week.  I now have a lower cost basis and as close to a risk free trade as you can get in the markets.

How about that AMBA?  I couldn’t be happier about tossing my Zillow shares in the dumpster to fund my AMBA purchase.  The old me would still be in Zillow. The dead fish action would result in me drawing faces on lemons with a sharpie and then tossing said lemons into my Blendtec emotionlessly.  The house would smell lovely as I died on the inside.

Zillow speaks to the selective nature of our market.  ChessNwine has been keeping this thought at the forefront of our trading mindset in his Weekly Strategy Sessions.  As a matter of fact, he brought my attention back to AMBA too.  I mean, it never left my watch list, and I am a total GoPro fanboy, but the reminder was a nudge on the shoulder if you will.

This AMBA trade has taken conviction.  I am glad to see mine coming back online.

Earlier I said this is all an appetizer, so you may be asking yourself, “What’s for dinner?”  Well my friends, LEDs are for dinner…and sloppy joes.  2013 is the year of the LED, they simply took the 3rd quarter off.  I have been financing these sleepy laggards with high level SHOMPPERY and 12631 magnificence, but it is high time they come online.  My top picks into the fourth quarter are CREE, RVLT, OESX, LYTS, RBCN, VECO, GTAT, and AIXG.

I like CREE the best as a company, RVLT the best as a young man’s speculative investment, and AIXG for their Germanic tribal nature.   I am long the trinity and will buy more of both after I spank a few more trades for stand up doubles.

I joined Le Doctour in BALT today.  I really just like the chart picture, you know me.  He does all the macro stuff.

Everyone is complaining about the way /ES traded today, but I had one of my better days.  When you have an idea of the context we are in, bobbing along the bottom with no conviction, you know to get the laser sight out and get damn good entries to allow you to get out before the things stalls and reverses.  We are learning over here and making a little bit of money while we do so.  From the high win rate comes larger position sizing and eventually scaling.  Then we make the big bucks.

Ah yes, I nearly forgot the point of this post—Everything you see is fake.  The dog and pony show in Washington over Obamacare and debt ceilings is all fake, jack ass es.  Do you really think any of this really matters, really?  I does not.  The terror threat elevation right at about 3:50pm?  Yes, fake.  Syria, real and sad, but so is every third world where cavemen kill each other for the best poppy fields.  Making noise about them is fake.  I have nightmares about a war on our land all the time because of these pundits and the terror threat bullshit. Even some nip slips are fake. I know, horrible times we live in..

Fear mongering from the glass half empty crowd is dangerous.  Avoid the losers who can’t drop it.

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