The selling continues this afternoon, with sellers continuing their blitzkrieg campaign with a 2pm algorithmic shock wave. A block trade like the one we just experienced at 2pm is a way of starting a siphon—the algo sucks on the tube with the intent of motivating atmospheric pressure to move liquid(ity). Once it starts the flow, a force of equal or greater value must arrive to stop the force.
There’s nothing wrong with sell algos, they just receive more criticism then buy algos. They are both attempting the same feat.
Keep the context of our market in mind. It is mid-December, we have had a huge run, correlations are low, the long term trend is higher, risky assets continue seeing cash inflow, and sellers just controlled their first week since mid-summer.
With that in mind, and despite my extensive coverage of the indices, I think it is important to keep your focus on individual setups and how they are behaving.
My book is going out 95% long after purchasing OWW today at the top tick. I have other names of interest, including LEDS basing just below one dollar.
My AMZN YOLO lottery ticket was a loser. I risked the entire premium because it was a lottery ticket. It had a moment of hope early on, but could not breach recent overhead supply. The trade needed more time than one day. I realized this soon after taking the trade, and was discussing how TSLA would have been a more prudent YOLO…if there is such a thing.
I never grabbed ENPH yesterday. Instead I just watched it and commented on it. Now I cannot buy it and it can likely go much higher. I simply lack to conviction to assume nearly 20% more risk.
My book of stocks spun donuts in the mud this week even though I have winners among my ranks. Here’s the book, largest-to-smallest:
BALT, OWW, FSLR, GRPN, TSLA, YELP, RVLT, YGE, Z, LO, WBMD, GOGO, CREE, F, and my bane MJNA.
Final word of on the market – this looks like discouragement phase, where the market makes an earnest attempt to steal away your favorite shares. Review your risk plans, make adjustments where necessary, and stick to them. Do not assume gains are guaranteed.
We are fast approaching one month of static returns for the book of Raul. November 18th my book peaked in tandem with the swing high in ONVO and turned lower. Still much a drunken off my superfluous hot streak, I bought WLT with funds from cashing out of AAPL (note: this required me buying said shares a few days later. It was a sublime exit and reentry, traded like a true scalper, but perhaps more than necessary for a swing book) and cut losses on SFM and YGE.
A few short days later I bought the dip in GOGO and more CREE. The GOGO and AMBA are who returned me to prior portfolio highs and propelled my book gingerly above prior high mark last Wednesday…you know, back when the market was going down and I was 90% long. Then starting Thursday the bulls stampeded higher. SOL also sent a chill across the collective spine of solar stocks, especially the YGE I have been so eagerly accumulating, effectively sending me back to Mid-November gains.
So much progress forfeited in the name of MOAR. The worst part is I like solar stocks even more at these prices. Goodness, if my book had any cash lying around I would have been buying FSLR today. Am I sick? I do not believe so, when I observe the FSLR weekly chart (I know, stretching my timeframe to justify a trade) I see exactly the type of conditions I thrive in. Have a look:
So I may forego hitting my 33% return goal on my swing portfolio, darn…I really need that money January 1st to buy tacos and such. I suppose what I am saying is I do not answer to anyone, this is my money, and I like my odds over the next few weeks. It is the god damned holidays anyhow, who wants to be ferreting for giblets when they can play Edward ham hands?
I doubt however that I could play this trade as slow as LED. That trade has been violently dead since the summer. Net-net they are a very green shoot in my annual performance, but we have been operating on the wrong side of the chart for quite some time. I suppose the shear age of this correction and my optimism for the industry as a whole is what has me currently positioned more aggressively now than I have been since early March.
Final thought, the NASDAQ is up 3% since November 18th. I am unchanged. This means nothing to you. It means everything to me when I glue my brain to NASDAQ 2-6 hours per day. Here’s me verses the indices:
I am still 100% long. I tried doing something, anything today, and no matter how hard I tried I could not justify selling anything. I feel good about that. Selling for the sake of selling, driven mainly from emotions associated with wheel spinning, seems like work for the sake of work.
When something breaks I will fix it, and I can’t sell YGE down here. I can sell it lower. I can sell it higher, but I can’t sell it here.
The market has been unable to compel me into action today. Instead I have sat here drinking coffee and watching my peers rip the faces off of shorts with supreme ultra-violence. My goodness, RaginCajun extracts a solid win off of EGLE, passes the baton to Le Fly and here we are, winning the relay.
One of my twitter buds was all over the shippers move too, well done @Apoms24 on the DRYS.
The day after a huge move, overnight or RTH, tends to be tricky intraday. Therefore, I sat in the bleachers and enjoyed the view.
Book largest-to-smallest: CREE, RVLT, RBCN, AIXG, Z, MHR, FB, CLF, LO, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O
Tickers of interest: YGE, FSLR, ONVO, ZNGA, FRO, END, and GMCR
Tue Aug 6, 2013 5:11pm ESTComments Off on Majestic Solar Panels
Years of desensitization from a 90’s childhood playing Grand Theft Auto and Doom, watching ultra-violent movies like American History X, and witnessing the opening of the proverbial floodgates via the World Wide Web has made it very difficult to get me excited. Perhaps that is why I simply cannot get excited about solar technology. Or, just maybe, it’s because it lacks POWER.
The Italians get me excited with the eCat, but nobody has proven anything yet.
You may be asking yourself, “Why then, Raul, do we see you taking positions in solar stocks so mucho?” I could cite the momentum as a reason or I could cite our current administration, but the real answer is I just don’t know. It’s such boring technology. Remember, I live in one of the least sunny places on the planet, so I’m sure that weighs in on my bias.
FSLR whiffed on earnings, the highlight of their conference call is their ‘pipeline’ of deals, which we’re to believe they’ll close on, and a new partnership with General Electric. Cool brah, I have a pipeline of deals too, they just keep ignoring my emails (spam).
Solar just doesn’t spin the turbines yet, which brings us back to my primary 2013 thesis, LED lights. A business can invest in itself TODAY, replace all of their lighting TODAY, and reduce their electric usage by over 20 percent. The payback period on the investment is quick, one to three years. Large shop spaces with high intensity discharge lighting can save even MORE. THIS TECHNOLOGY, my friends, is a step in the right direction. AND IT MAKES SENSE TO BUSINESSES, because they’re cash flows aren’t jeopardized for ten, fifteen years. Silly solar salesmen sitting on their leads.
YGE is Chinese, so they have that going for them. And by that I mean souped up books and a Chairman that will handle any insolent workers.
Aside from being on the wrong end of the FSLR call, I traded spooz really well. I pulled out my weekly nut today, fading the down moves early on, then fading the up moves in the afternoon. It was pretty great, 5 planned trades, 0 unplanned.
I bought KWK thinking it could squeeze. It didn’t, yet. I still think it’s priced for certain death and with earnings out of the way and our Mideast Embassies closed, perhaps the energy complex could be in for a bit of summer time madness.
I eyeballed OCZ but missed adding, I’m still long. Something is about to go down in this name, I can feel it in my bones.
To think, I almost sold CREE today. I can’t belive that thought crosses my mind, ever. It’s a stupid thought. Stupid brain, always getting in my way.
We get to hear from First Solar after the bell today and the stock is price for uncertainty. It has been priced for uncertainty since falling off its trend a bit in mid-June. Since then we’ve seen a long consolidation trade. I’m betting the earnings announcement breaks us out of this grind, but in which direction?
I would prefer higher, of course, so as to give the entire industry a fresh thrust of inertia. You won’t find a clearer picture of bracketed price action than the FSLR daily chart:
The next move should be a meaningful one. Full Disclosure: I’m long quite a bit of YGE.
Today’s session had a smack of indecision which led to me selling First Solar into the closing bell. It goes like this: you’re sitting in a well-sized, well entered position in an industry—in this case solar. You’re also sitting in an oversized, well entered position in the same industry. The oversized position, in my case ENPH, gets beaten over the head for the third straight session and now you face a decision. Do you cut the loser, even though it’s technically still on track with your plan? Or do you cut the small winner, thus reducing your overall exposure to a bipolar industry?
I chose the latter, and I’d do it again if I had the chance.
It does take a certain bit of blissful ignorance to let your balls swing low in this market. We printed another doji candle in the $SPX, and I plum don’t like where this one is placed. So I cut FSLR.
FSLR in all honestly, because I’m an honest mother lover, presents a better chart setup than ENPH. But I see less downside risk in ENPH, as we near my max pain level. About $6.50, on a closing basis, is max pain. I won’t become an investor in ENPH, if you know what I mean, but certain setups take time to reward you, and the reward is sweet money.
That and I bought EXK and played grab ass in the futures. That’s my day. Good night.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that solar companies offer the same promise as CREE: a reduced dependency on the electrical grid. But pull out a 2013 chart of CREE and compare it to your favorite solar issuance. Actually no, I’ll do it for you.
Behold! Greatness, smooth and non-porous…vs…bleep,blop,bloop:
Better yet, let’s get visualized via a performance chart, shall we?
NOTICE ANYTHING? I do, CREE besting the competition and doing so in a smooth, methodical manner. But wait, who is that little shining star, outperforming on the year ever so boldly?
Indeed it is ENPH. And I’m fully over sized into ENPH, sitting though a melt down of sorts. If I had it my way, I’d be buying more I bought more here because ENPH is a winner this year, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. I implore PPT subscribers to dial this ticker into your machines and observe the statistics.
It’s hot. All other solar exposure is a crappy crap shoot, trust. Look at March and April weakness across the board on the performance chart, who didn’t care? CREE and ENPH.
Don’t you know forces exist much greater than ours and they are determined to derail your momentum trade? GUY! You don’t want to play momentum trades too tight up here, at the precipice. You’ve got to be cool, relax, get hip, and get on their tracks.
As I type, TAN, FSLR, YGE, and ENPH are well off their lows, and you’re without solar stocks.
Time to play catch up, because they’re the best momo show in town.
The old me would be stalking EXK today like I did Miley Cyrus last time she was in town, but I’m comporting myself with a bit more grace and self-respect today…like Pepe Le Pew. I learned not to chase miners, EXK in particular, through a long history of daggered hairpin reversals. The name is volatile, I felt early on that I missed the action, therefore I did. I’ll have to tickle my fancies with something else today.
I’ve quite enjoyed being kicked in the scrotum this morning by my newly minted long OCZ. They came out with some preliminary earnings data rather out of the blue, and lo and behold they’re still combating supply issues. “SUPPLIES!” …no surprise. There are worse problems for a company to have, like no sales. Anyway, the stock market is the final arbiter. If the name doesn’t shape up into the bell I may axe it (no piker body spray puke).
I sold a bit more O which is fantastic, this trade played out LOCKSTEP, and now I have my final 1/3 which the market must work very hard to take from my person, as my cost basis (net of booked profits) is now $38.50 aka well below swing lows. I hope we take out the recent swing low, run some stops, and then I’ll add some back on. This is going to be my new AWK, collecting me a coupon while I skip to my lou though the market minefield.
My solar trifecta has me more pleasured than Lil Wayne ‘turked up’ on opiates at a stripper convention. Take your pick: YGE, FSLR, and ENPH the sector is leading higher just as prophesied by the immortal Le Fly and other iBC cast members. Use the green juice to power some CREE bulbs and you’re on the right track, guy.
DDD and PRLB did this morning what I like to call the bear pinch: drive lower, pullback for shorts to enter, make a new low, barely, than quickly rip higher, leaving asshole bears stuck in their underwater positions. Have a great afternoon you harry bastards, it’s hot out there.
RVLT finally lifted off and it has done so without me. I’m instead nearly balls deep in German LED play AIXG, down 1 percent. All dogs have their day, RVLT is a decent company, but they’re no CREE or AIXG fundamentally. RVLT is an instrument for degenerates to trade.
I’m happy to have paired my IMMR with some INVN because to me, they’re the same thing: new tech, chips. INVN appears to be more en vogue.
F won’t let good Americans in unless their 401-k is set to ‘auto-allocate’.
FB still wants to win, while you’re looking elsewhere.
I’ll never own enough Z, but I own it nonetheless.
TPX is still my largest. You will all feel its gentle wrath.
Who thinks BPZ has another squeeze in it? (Raises hand)
That’s my book in a nutshell. I’m considering an FXY long as protection. Call it Kong hedging. iBC is becoming a formidable beast.