iBankCoin
Joined Oct 26, 2011
153 Blog Posts

No selling until everyone is buying.

Keep in mind that the big institutions that own a ton of stocks don’t have the volume to dump everything and take a profit. So he prices might as well be imaginary for them along with their inflated net worth… at least until the volume really comes in and they can sell. But it works in reverse… The institutions flush with cash that want to put a ton of it to work can’t without driving prices much much higher in the process, so much like the high volume capitulation of the credit downgrade crash just over a year ago, any crash may be dealt with buying. If volume goes parabolic along with price, then follow the institutions lead and use the buying pressure to sell into. Institutions don’t have a choice but to sell into it if they ever want to take a profit, because for all they know it is the last chance to liquidate at high, make believe prices.

The “boy plunger” Jesse Livermore said it best,

“If you operate on a large scale you will have to bear that
in mind all the time. A man studies conditions, plans his
operations carefully and proceeds to act. He swings a pretty
fair line and he accumulates a big profit on paper. Well, that
man can’t sell at will. You can’t expect the market to absorb
fifty thousand shares of one stock as easily as it does one
hundred. He will have to wait until he has a market there to
take it. There comes the time when he thinks the requisite
buying power is there. When that opportunity comes he must seize
it. As a rule he will have been waiting for it. He has to sell
when he can, not when he wants to.

Right now any major institutional investors who want to sell can’t do so in bulk. Anyone that wants to buy can’t do so in bulk. That is just the nature of low volume moves. Collectively it is only after a huge swell of buying demand occurs that the institutions that have been long will have to get out. And when they do it will absorb the buying demand. That means that for things to go higher beyond that, there needs to continue to be liquidity and more and more buying demand to keep the ponzi scheme going. Conversely, those that missed the move that were patient and don’t want to buy until there is the demand will all load up if markets crash. This is generally why a huge volume spike after an extended move in one direction after a huge price swing in that direction will often lead to a major reversal, particularly after the volume starts to decline again for the buying or selling pressure cannot continue at that rate any longer without more and more panic buying/selling than before it.

Should a major turning point occur this info may come in handy to better understand the mechanics of the market.

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3 comments

  1. elizamae

    I like this post. Bonus points for quoting/incorporating Livermore.

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  2. zenhunter

    Good post to remind everyone how the big players have to work with.

    It goes with the thinking that if you are fully invested, your portfolio is only an illusion until you cash it. “cause if everyone tries to cash it at the same time, your portfolio value will be decimated.

    This is exactly why I like to be in cash a lot of time waiting for opportunity. The market provides liquidity so you can get in and out with ease; so why not take advantage of it.

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  3. Mr.Partridge

    Jesse sends his regards… interesting subject and good post

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