Fire away

I needed to file my research before the day became any nicer. Otherwise I might start tearing the paint off of the office walls, and it is a lovely shade of blue. That would be a shame.

A gun fight broke out just in front of my good friend’s urban development last night. Bunch’a’loons in Hellcat street racers shooting at each other from the car windows. The heat is coming, the wild grass and dandelions are growing tall and the histamines are swelling people’s brains, causing a fever-like mania of erratic behavior. If only people took their allergy pills or maybe a toot of Flonase in each barrel, maybe we’d get along better.

Or better yet eliminate all this heckin’ grass everywhere. Grass. So useless unless you need it for sports drills or livestock. I am sofa king allergic to grass.

Anyhow the research is done and I need to go outside. The back yard is setting up pretty epic this season, and with just a bit more love Mothership could rival installations by the queen Martha Stewart.

King tut peas, Japanese purple corn with pink ribbon leaves, cucumbits, titan sunflowers known to grow 15-feet high, poppy blooms from orange to bloody pink. Russian sage. The waterfall, oh the waterfall.

This is my World Series. Nobody does garden design like Humble Raul. Y’all think I just slay NASDAQ futures for two hours then spend the rest of the day jackin’ off? With both hands? No sir, I work. Idle hands are trouble they just want to beat it and smoke drugs.

My hedonistic energies must be channeled or everyone will suffer. This wolf is best behaved when fully depleted physically and mentally by night fall. Otherwise the local towns folk are at risk.

Models are bullish, on all accords. Fire away. These may be the final days of this wonderful v-shaped bounce. What could go wrong pressing longs into month end?

Raul Santos, May 24th 2020

Exodus members, the 287th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up +100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, steadily campaigning its way back up into the Tuesday range and back up near the highs. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Tuesday high aka swing high.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 20-year bond auction at 1pm and the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap up and after a brief open two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove to new swing highs. Said buyers stalled out ahead of the swing high by a few ticks, leaving behind a weak high before sellers careened price down through the day’s range, eventually pushing neutral near 4pm New York and closing price down on the lows.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through swing high 9417.25 on their way to tagging 9437.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up and fill the 02/21 gap up at 9459.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9298.75. Look for buyers down at 9258.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price popped higher overnight, making a new swing high before sellers knocked the price back down into balance. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range.

Walmart reported earnings this morning that bested expectations, shares are higher by +3% in pre-market trade.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chair J.Powell set to speak to the Senate at 10am. At the same time e-commerce retails sales data is due out. at 11am we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions, and at 11:30am a 52-week bill auction.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap up and after a brief open two-way trade buyers drove higher, nearly but not quite making a new swing high before flagging for several hours. In the afternoon the new swing high was finally made. We were choppy from then-on, eventually closing off the highs by a bit.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tradign up through 9369.25 and sustaining trade above it to set up a run up through overnight high 8417.25. Look for sellers up at 9435.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers fill the 02/21 open gap up at 9459.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers sustain trade below 9369.25 then work down through overnight low 9291. look for buyers down at 9258.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher for the majority of the Globex session, trading up through last Friday’s high early Sunday evening and steadily campaigning higher for the duration of the session. As we approach cash open, price is hovering up inside of last Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have Housing Market Index at 10am followed by both 3- and 6-motn T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week kicked off with a gap down and Monday rally. Tuesday featured a choppy balance early on before sellers stepped in and drove lower. Selling continued through Wednesday morning until a choppy balance took hold well above the prior week’s lows. From then onward price rallied, recapturing about half the week’s losses. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range. Buyers drove into the open but could not close the overnight gap on their first attempt. Instead price reversed the early open drive. Sellers could not however take out the daily low. Instead buyers renewed their campaign higher and by about 1:15pm the overnight gap was filled. The rest of the day was spent chopping higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up 9320.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up through recent swing high 9345.50 setting up a run to 9400.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 9188 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Any caution expressed last week has been thoroughly rinsed off after updating my research early this morning. I am back to being bullish and need to put my money back to work asap.

A couple things happened last week at the House of Raul. I bit off more than I prefer to chew, labor-wise, and as a result I was worked into a lather and for no damn great reason except a few thousand fiat american dollars. It set me back on my own work and was distracting and by golly I worked clean into Sunday night finishing tasks I accepted, tasks for other people’s benefit.

Fine.

The other thing that happened was I was so heckin’ busy I didn’t even have the mental endurance to cue up Exodus for five minute in the evening and see what the algos are up to.

Error. Not fine.

Any performance going forward from this will inevitably be worse. It is just the nature of things. I accept this.

One thing I’ve learned in my eight years freed from the shackles of W2 corporate servitude is that if I do not do something it will not be done. It is my conviction that many an adult american don’t have the huevos to live like this—they prefer to have some insurmountable authority that they can pile their angst onto, should something not go right. It’s a low friction way to bullshit yourself into complacency.

If I did not wake up two hours earlier than I normally prefer to on this critical Monday, then the research I need in order to trade would not be done, ergo I could not trade this week.

Again, this is not fine. Opportunity is running high.

So that’s it. Models are updated an bullish on all fronts. I have to allocate some of my long-term capital that was shuffled into cash last Monday as well as position my swing account long. I am a bit late to the rally. Such is life when you’re distracted. Nobody here is out to do any favors.

Watch for Walmart earnings out Tuesday to give a pure proxy on the U.S. economy. All those employment and GDP data coming out of the government are useless. Walmart is America. Walmart will tell the story.

Back to work.

I will be back around 9am with a morning NASDAQ trading report.

Raul Santos, May 18th 2020

Exodus members, the 286th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight  after taking out Tuesday’s low briefly. We held a balance along the lows until about 5:45am when it began exploring higher prices. At 9am Fed Chairman Powell is set to speak. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed normal variation down, but with a trend down in the final hour of trade. The day began with a gap up and after a brief probe a few ticks above the prior swing high the overnight gap was resolved. We then spend several hours chopping above the daily midpoint, then a few more hours in a tight chop below the daily mid, then the selling came in during the last hour. We ended the day down inside of last Thursday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 9169.50. Look for sellers up at 9200 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9076.75. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 8997.50. Look for buyers down at 8952 open gap and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8900 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price popped higher Sunday evening, briefly making a new swing high and holding the gains until about 4:20am. From then onward we’ve been rotating lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Friday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week buyers took control of the tape. We spent al week auctioning higher across all major indices, with the NASDAQ and Russell leading the way. The last week performance of each index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up and after a brief two way open auction buyer stepped in and made new swing high. Buying continued through New York lunch hour before sellers stepped in around 1:15pm and send price back down to the daily midpoint. Then, by end of day buyers had rotated us back up to the highs and we ended the day there.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 9219.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take out overnight high 9285 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 9100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

You gotta have huevos to press your longs through the weekend. That or an established system with proven statistics.

Our brains are funny things. We can take in super valuable statistical information, information that is objective and cold and dead and true. Then instead of doing what that information says to, we over-weight the first hand account of someone close to us—a relative or some internet guru.

That is how one stays firmly planted in the 90% loser category.

There is not much for me to say this lovely Mother’s Day Sunday. I usually do Mother’s Day big here at the House of Raul. Women, in general, worry too much. If we can do one thing for the women in our family it is to project stability on Mother’s Day. Prepare a bountiful meal. Host a gathering in a spotless space festooned with lots of living plants and cut arrangements. Send them home with leftovers and gifts. Then resume your purposeful persists, be them illegal hell cat street racing, writing or whatever it is you do with your time.

I shall press all longs into the end of Monday. If, per fate, we have some kind of a trend up Monday, then I shall push into Tuesday morning. These are just rules established in my trading plan years ago.

None of this is rocket science.

Keep it simple.

Raul Santos, May 10th, 2020

Exodus members, the 285th edition of Strategy Session is live. Our two key contextual sub indices are painting a really clear picture heading into May OPEX. How the next few days play out is likely to forecast the overall market direction into quarter end. Make sure you check it out!

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher last night, unidirectional, steadily rotating higher during the entire globex session. As we approach cash open, price is hovering up near the high print set back on 04/29 during globex hours. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up and after a brief two-way open auction buyers stepped in, leaving that overnight gap unfilled. Buyers took out Tuesday high and closed the 04/29 open gap. After exceeding it by a few ticks and sustaining the gains thru most of the session, sellers pressed in late day and returned us back down to the session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to probe above swing high 9144.75. Look for sellers up at 9179.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 full-on bull run, get up into the open gap zone and trend up to 9459.25.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8952. Look for buyers at 8950 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price broke free from Monday’s range early in the Globex session, around 9pm New York, and sustainted trade above it for the remainder of the night. Price worked up into last Thursday’s range before finding responsive sellers who rotated price back down to Monday’s range. Buyers rejected a return to the range and as we approach cash open, price is hovering up inside of last Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill announcements at 11am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down and after a battle of an open two-way auction buyers stepped in and quickly resolved the overnight gap. BUyers then continued higher, tagging last Friday’s midpoint before falling back to the daily mid. Buyers then rotated higher for the rest of the session closing on high of day, up in the top quadrant of last Friday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up and closing last Thursday’s gap 8934.50. Look for sellers up at 8948.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 8988.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8796.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves: