NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, achieving new record gains and sustaining the advance as we approach cash open.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came out worse than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am, Pending Home Sales at 10am, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After beginning the holiday shortened week gap down buyers aggressively stepped in at the open and drove price higher.  A bit later in the day buyers managed to push price range extension up, by two ticks, before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5792 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, trading up to 5837.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through overnight low 5791.25 and trade down to 5777 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher and achieved a new record high before slipping lower.  Sellers were ultimately denied a chance to break down through last Friday’s low before a bid came in.

US Markets were closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day.

Economic data out early this morning was much stronger than expected.  Personal Consumption Expenditures was out at 8:30am and the Case-Shiller Composite-20 at 9am.  Both solid beats.  The economy is running hot and consumption is faster than the world’s best analysts expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am.  Will it affirm the pre-market data, and be used to justify 3 rate hikes in 2017?  Then, stay sharp, because at 11:30am the US Treasury is having a blow-out sale of short-term debt.  All the auctions are listed below:

• 4-week, $45B
• 3-month, $39B
• 6-month, $33B
• cash management bills, $25B

Last week we rallied.  The move was primaraly driven by large growth plays in the technology sector.  Towards the end of the week, the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average began to lag.  The performance last week of each major US index can be seen below:

On Friday, The NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  A bid appeared soon after the open and closed the small overnight gap.  Then, after a brief range extension in the morning two-way trade ensued.  Price did not take out the Thursday high, instead printing an ‘inside day’.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower.  Look for price to move down through overnight low 5778.25.  Look for buyers just below, down at 5777 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 5748.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5792.25 then continue higher, up through overnight high 5797.25.  Look for sellers up at 5800 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up through 5800 and we rally up to 5837.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked higher, to record highs, stalling in-and-around the Fibonacci extension levels drawn from last week’s down move.  At 8:30am Advance Goods/Trade balance came out below expectations.  At the same time Initial/Continuing jobless claims were worse than expected.

You know, economic data points…irrelevant matters. Investors are tunnel visioned on our new authoritarian leadership.

At 1pm, the US Treasury is auctioning off $28 billion in 7-year Notes.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap up, sellers closed it, we established a bid around these prices, then we began auctioning higher for the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5731.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5728.75.  Look for buyers down at 5718.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5696.75 before two way trade.

Hypo 3 press up through overnight high 5759, trade up to 5770 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 5770 setting up a trend up.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher in an unobstructed, linear manner overnight while our President continued his international tour of holy lands.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications came out better than last week.

We have a busy economic calendar for Wednesday.  Existing Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, 2-year Note auction at 11:30am, a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.  Most importantly, we have FOMC Minutes from the May 3rd meeting at 2pm.

And while it’s likely to be ignored by investors, The Fed’s ‘crazy-eyed’ Kashkari is speaking in Wisconsin at 6:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap up and quickly drove lower, closing the gap.  Sellers then backed off, and two way trade ensued along the top-side of Monday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for an early push higher.  There’s an open gap at 5724.75 that was left behind last Wednesday when the democrats thought they had some real obstruction of justice dirt on our wall-loving President.  We have returned to the ‘scene of the crime’.  Look for price to continue higher, up to 5754 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5712 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5705.25.  Look for buyers down at 5700 and two way trade to ensue ahead of FOMC minuets.

Hypo 3 a probe above all-time highs 5727.25 finds strong sellers and we are thrown into two-way trade ahead of FOMC minutes.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in a stable manner, holding inside last Friday’s range.

The economic calendar is light today.  We only have to be aware of the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.  Also, a reminder, there are FOMC Minutes out Wednesday afternoon.

Last week US markets worked higher through Tuesday before liquidating hard ahead of the Wednesday open, based off politics.  The selling continued through all of Wednesday, then we spent the rest of the week working back up-and-into the news driven move.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and a small drive higher before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5635.50 then continues lower, down through overnight low 5648.75 and continuing lower, down to close the gap at 5629.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5665.25 and slowly work higher, up to 5700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press a liquidation down to 5563.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures came into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower and our current swing low, just above a gap left behind on April 26th, occurred during extended trading hours, this is contextually bearish.

Market profiles are ugly, which means day-trading opportunities are elevated, and also means the higher time frame is interacting with the markets.  Key /NQ_F Levels, and ugly profiles [out-of-balance] are pictured below:

We had some economic statistics this morning.  What’s interesting about an out-of-balance market is economic non-events like Initial/Continuing Jobless claims, which haven’t moved the market for months, suddenly impact prices. Both Philly Fed and Initial/Continuing claims were better-than-expected and the market rallied shortly after.

We have a ‘news driven’ framework to trade around, given that the overall consensus among investors is that the selling seen all day Wednesday was attributed to the actions being taken by U.S. Intelligence Agencies and the White House.  Our primary expectation is for the market to ‘return to the scene of the crime’ or check back to where the initial reaction occurred.

The scene of the crime gap, volume profiles, and measured moves are pictured below:

Part of what goes into my daily planning is what I call Switchboard.  It is my ‘all things considered’ spreadsheet, which takes everything discussed above, and as objectively as possible codes it into a trading bias.

Considering everything discussed above, Switchboard is currently neutral. See below:

You may notice the June Fed Rate decision is already on our radar.  Per the CME Fed futures, there is currently a 64.6% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike on June 14th, see below:

Heading into the afternoon and evening, my primary expectation is for this ugly profile to start taking shape, with value around 5605.  Looking to buy below and sell above, working the neutral bias until more information is made available.

Remember we’re talking NASDAQ futures, June expiry.

Trade’em’well

 

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  All the upside achieved Monday/Tuesday was reversed during extended trade before two way trade ensued.  At 7am the MBA Mortgage applications data was worse than last week.

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.  Also, at 11am the New York Fed will release its Household Debt and Credit report.  This report will likely contain major implications of a June rate hike.

Investors are currently pricing in a 69.2% probability of a rate hike on June 14th, according the CME’s Fed Fund futures.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Price worked lower early on, closing the overnight gap reversing and traversing the entire daily range and going range extension up.  Buyers then added a bit more near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower, down to 5676 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling pushes down through 5670, setting up a move to 5659.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5724.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Monday range until about 6:30am, then it made new record highs.  As we approach the open, the market is sustaining the gains.  At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits data was issued.

Also on the docket today we have Industrial Production at 9:15am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  There was a morning rally, then two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher, up to 5722.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers sustain trade above 5722.75 setting up a trend day.

Hypo 3 sellers push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5701 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the third week of May flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price made new record highs during Globex trade, but returned to flat soon after.

The economic calendar is light all week and today is no different.  At 10am we have the Housing Market Index, at 11:30 the US Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills, $39B and $33B respectively.  Also at 4pm we have Long-term TIC flows.

Last week markets worked sideways more-or-less, with the NASDAQ on a slight drift higher.  The performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up.  After a choppy initial balance [first hour of trade] sellers briefly pushed price range extension down, but the market caught a bid before closing the overnight gap and traversed the entire daily range eventually close at record highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5683.50 and trade down to 5676.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5700.25 and explore open air.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5670 before two way, balance trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was contained to the upper half of Thursday’s range during extended trade.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales data both came out worse than expected.

Also on the docket today we have the preliminary May reading of Confidence by the University of Michigan at 10am followed by the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap down and sellers pushing down near the Monday/weekly lows.  Down here, in the late morning, the market found a responsive bid.  We spent the rest of the day rallying, with price stalling just 1-tick shy of the overnight gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight high 5672.50 then continue higher to close the gap at 5675. Look for sellers up at 5677.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press to new weekly high, up to 5688.50 then sustain trade above it, setting up a rally into the weekend.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 5656.50 triggering a liquidation down to 5637.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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