NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, briefly resting at the Monday high before continuing to work higher.  As we head into cash open, prices are hovering at all-time highs.

On the economic docket today we have House Price Index at 9am, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence at 10am, 4- and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The details of the session were recapped yesterday afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5504.50.  Look for price to continue lower, down through the 5500 century mark and testing 5495.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, continue exploring higher prices beyond the current swing high 5524.

Hypo 3 strong selling takes price down to 5462.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the last full week of April pro gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  When Globex trade opened Sunday evening, futures were 30 points higher and the rally continued overnight, pushed price nearly 60 points above last week’s closing price. This sort of gap throws the market out of balance and could lead to institutional activity at the opening bell.

The economic calendar is light this week.  Today we have only the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week U.S. markets worked higher, lead by the small cap Russell Industrial Average.  There were bouts of selling throughout the week, but the sellers never managed to gain much traction, and most mornings featured a gap up.   The last week performance of each major index can be seen below:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  Price opened more-or-less flat, and after some early chop a brief range extension down was achieved by the sellers before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a two-way auction at the open, pushing up-and-down to establish an early range, then either the buyers or sellers will make an attempted move out of it.  The move away from early balance will likely be significant and could drive direction all day.

If move is higher we only have one reference point—a Fibonacci level at 5517.75.  Primary hypo is sellers hold this level and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 5517.75 and continue exploring higher prices, trend day, open air, all-time highs.

Hypo 3 sellers break early balance and begin working into the overnight inventory, pushing a half gap down to about 5484.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation off the open, selling down through overnight low 5470 and a test of 5462.50 before two way trade ensues, or even a full gap fill down to 5441.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Let the record show my Sunday analysis, which suggested US markets had a ‘scary look to them heading into OPEX’ was off base.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday, option expiration Friday, gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up to the Thursday high, and has been treading water right at the high since.  The high has been tagged many times but so far not exceeded.  Therefore the profile has taken on a blunt shape on top, suggesting the high is ‘weak’ and prone to a test above it.

The economic calendar is light today.  We have Markit Manufacturing/Service PMI at 9:45am, Existing Home Sales at 10am, and the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap up for the third time this week, and for the third time this week sellers were unable to close the gap.  Instead the market pushed higher off the open, at one point before lunch trending up into the 04/05 liquidation zone before settling into two way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5454.75 continue up to 5461.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 5440 triggering a liquidation down to 5415 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 choppy range from 5430 – 5455.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, reversing the Wednesday afternoon selling but holding inside the Wednesday range.

On the economic calendar today we have Initial/Continuing jobless claims at 8:30am.  At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed data is out.  Other economic events include Leading Indicators at 10am, and a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  Price opened pro gap up, saw an early rally that briefly went range extension up before reversing down through the entire range and giving back most of the gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5396.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5394 and close the open gap down at 5389.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, up through overnight high 5418.25,  Buyers continue higher, up to 5424.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers rally up to 5432.25 before two-way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher during the entire session, pressing up into the hard selling from last Tuesday and nearly erasing the losses.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications data came out worse than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The gap down was quickly bought up and buyers continued pushing higher, to a new weekly high before sellers came in and reversed the entire move, briefly pushing the market range extension down before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, working up to the naked VPOC at 5432.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller work into the overnight inventory and attempt to regain the Tuesday range at 5405.25 but fail, ultimately leading to a move up to 5432.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 5389.50 then take out overnight low 5388.  Look for sellers down at 5383.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Monday high, briefly, during extended trading hours before a significant rotation lower pushed through.  The down move stalled around the Monday RTH midpoint. At 8:30am Housing Starts came in below expectation and Building Permits above expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Industrial/Manufacturing production at 9:15am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened the week gap up and buyers bought into it before we spent much of the day churning sideways.  Then, the afternoon featured a ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5394.50.  From here sellers step in and work lower, down through overnight low 5375.50.  Look for buyers down at 5374 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap and go lower, down through overnight low 5375.50 and continue lower, targeting the weekly gap down at 5358.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a gap fill up to 5394.50 the continue higher, up through overnight high 5403.75 triggering a rally up to 5430 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are heading into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower, down to a new low of week before stabilizing into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have the preliminary April read of Confidence from the U. of Michigan at 10am, then the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and buyers could not fill the overnight gap.  Instead we worked lower, slowly, eventually closing on the low-of-the-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5372.50.  From here buyers continue higher, up through 5382 before stalling around 5395.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to close the gap at 5402.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5355.75 and push down to 5348 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Tuesday range on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications were better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap down, a brief move higher closed the gap before sellers stepped in and drove the market lower, testing down into 3/27 prices, making a new low for April before recovering much of the move throughout the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5402.75.  From here the continue higher, up through overnight high 5412.75.  Look for sellers just above at 5415.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5386.25.  Look for buyers down at 5374.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to 5430.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Monday range overnight on balanced trade.

The economic calendar is extremely light today.  we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 10-year Note auction at 1pm.  Fed’s ‘crazy-eyes’ Kashkari is doing a Q&A in the afternoon but investors aren’t likely to pay attention.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened with a slight gap up, proved into the conviction selling after last Wednesday’s Fed minutes, found sellers, reversed down through the entire range, going neutral.  Then it held last Friday’s low before stabilizing into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down through overnight low 5411.25 setting up a move to tag the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5347 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5429.25 and tag the Monday VPOC at 5432.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 stronger buyers press up to 5461.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the new week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Friday range overnight on balanced trade.

The economic calendar is light this week.  For today, we have Labor Markets Conditions change at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, a 3-year Note auction at 1pm, and a 4pm Fed Chair Yellen is speaking in Ann Arbor, MI.

Last week we marked time, essentially, before rallying into the Wednesday FOMC minutes.  We then reversed, hard and lower after the minutes.  Then, despite a strong initial risk-off move following news of Tomahawk missiles being launched at Syria, we stabilized ahead of the Friday opening bell and continued marking time into the weekend.  Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Sellers pushed early on, just below the Thursday low before discovering a responsive bid.  We then spent the rest of the day working higher, going range extension up before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push up through overnight high 5433.75, which continues higher to 5461 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5415.75 and tag the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 5374.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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