NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight and has been nudging up into the ‘pole climb’ area on market profile.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out positive but lower than last week.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales both came out below expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Business Inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and most importantly an FOMC rate decision at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Day began with a gap up, sellers worked into overnight inventory and closed the gap.  An excess low formed, and we spent the rest of the day bidding higher, ultimately traversing the entire day’s range and closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up to 5800 before we pause ahead of the FOMC decision.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 5759.50 then continue down though overnight low 5739.50. Look for buyers down at 5728.75 ahead of the FOMC decision.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press to 5703 before FOMC.

Use third reaction analysis after the FOMC decision to determine direction into the afternoon and the rest of the week.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, slow and steady, hardly taking any time to trade sideways or lower.

The economic calendar is dead.  Like you probably do not need to trade today.  There’s a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 3o-year bond auction at 1pm.

That is it, and everyone will likely at some point today start marking time ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC decision.

However, there is the potential for a pole climb, which is a way of describing a steady ascent up a thin and slippery surface (believe it or not).  In this case, the ‘surface’ is how our market profile is currently printed.  You can see what is being described as a pole on the colorful chart at the bottom of this blog entry.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  People woke up freaked out.  All their fears about the tech sector had come to life and the NASDAQ was careening lower again, for a second day.  Price closed a gap left behind around 5/19, went a touch lower, then found a responsive bid.  We spent the rest of the day auctioning higher.  Buyers struggled to regain the low-end of balance formed Friday afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher.  Price works up to 5760 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5720.  They continue lower, down through overnight low 5706.75.  Look for a bid around 5700 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 pole climb.  Price sustains above 5760 triggering an uninterrupted move up to 5800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week with a pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower, starting around midnight, trading down near last Friday’s low before settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light today.  Mostly Treasury auctions, see below:

• 11am, 6-month T-bill, $33bln
• 11:30am, 3-year Note, $24bln
• 12pm, 3-mont T-bill, $39bln
• 1pm, 10-year Note, $20bln

We also have a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Last week major indices worked sideways until Friday.  On Friday a heavy wave of selling pushed through the market, hitting the NASDAQ particularly hard.  Last week’s performance of each major U.S. index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down.  Price pushed down to levels not seen since late-May before a sharp responsive bid came into the market.  We did not trend the entire day, but a significant portion of the day was spent trending lower.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5748.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 5670 and continue lower, down to 5651.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5615.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers ‘pole climb’ up to 5800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held range.  Extended trade was calm.

Economic calendar’s empty.

Yesterday we printed a bloody normal day.  It was so boring.  No range extension.  An impulsive wave of selling hit the tape early, formed a wide initial balance, and buyers spent the rest of the day slowly reclaiming the losses.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move up through overnight high 5895.50.  This sets up a test of all-time highs, currently printed at 5903.  We break through then two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers, so strong that they drive price up to 5934 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers, working through overnight low 5869.  Buyers down near 5863 then two way trade.

Last Sunday’s Exodus Strategy Session on point so far:

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, in two phases of discovery, unmitigated by selling pressure, ultimately making its way back to record highs.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

There are no other economic events today.  There may be some political events which are likely only distractions. If there not, it will become evident on the tape.  No sense in paying attention to political theater.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Recall, on Tuesday, it was the opposite, neutral extreme down.  There was selling pressure yesterday, but by the late afternoon a strong responsive bid stepped in and we spent the rest of the day auctioning higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 5934 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 5887 before stalling out, leaving an open gap behind before we resume trading higher, up through overnight high 5897.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 5880.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Tuesday range during extended trade, slowly retracing the impulsive sell-move seen late Tuesday afternoon.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications was a huge number.  Housing is hot.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30 am.  This data may be looked at more closely amid the negative news flowing out of  Persia (Iranian gunners in their ‘Parliament’ building and Qatar being eliminated by its brethren).  We also have consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down.  Price worked higher all morning, and after briefly going range extension up, to new record highs, we fell back into the midpoint.

Like a potential failed auction.

Then, late in the day the failed auction confirmed when a hard sell pushed through the marketplace.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and closer the gap down to 5863.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5858.75 and 5857.25 before two way trade trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher, up to 5887.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down though 5853.25 triggering a liquidation down to 5838.

***Note: profiles are thin in both directions, today’s action could be fast***

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, down through the daily low from Monday, and found a slight bid as we head into cash open.

The economic calendar is extremely light today.  JOLTS job openings will be announced at 10am and there is a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down.  Buyers worked into the overnight inventory and closed the gap then continued higher, briefly pressing range extension up before we settled into a slow, two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5881.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5883.25.  Look for sellers up at 5882.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out at 5876.75 and fall down through overnight low 5864.50.  Look for buyers down at 5850 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through overnight low 5838 and trigger a liquidation down to 5838 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways, holding inside the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.

The economic calendar features several low-impact events.  At 10am we have ISM Service composite and Factory/Durable goods orders.  At 11:30am we have a 3-month T-bill auction then at 1pm a 6-month T-bill auction.

Last week US markets worked higher.  There were a few mornings early in the week that were dominated by sellers, but both times the sellers found a strong bid and the auction continued to move up.  By the end of the week the rally accelerated.  The performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend day.  Price worked higher all session long, probing record highs in a continuous, upward manner.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5886.  From here price continues higher, up through overnight high 5886.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers bid price up to 5934 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5875.  Look for buyers down at 5870 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 sellers sustain trade below 5870 triggering a liquidation down to 5838.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDASQ futures are coming into Friday with a strong gap up, at record highs, after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, unabashed, all night and morning long as investors looked forward to industries having free reign to do what they please with the world’s resources.

The model used by the team at iBankCoin labs issued a bearish outlook on Sunday, for the holiday shortened week, and was acted upon.  Tuesday the good scientists sold a long-held position in $T and went long $SQQQ as a hedge.  Both actions has been deemed not only wrong, but insolent by the final arbiter—natural market forces.

It is worth noting, however, that the short bias served us well intra-day.  there were sustained periods of selling pressure, and a long battle controlled by sellers at the daily mid Wednesday, that allowed us to capitalize on our bearishness.

Overall, however, the week is being dominated by bulls.

The economic calendar is light into week’s end.  We had Non-farm payroll data at 8:30am and it was mixed:

USA Unemployment Rate for May 4.30% vs 4.40% Est; Prior 4.40%

USA Nonfarm Payrolls for May 138.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 211.0K

The Baker Hughes rig count comes out at 1pm and is likely a non-event.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up, but it resembled a neutral extreme up.  This is when you knew the short bias was in serious jeopardy.  Sellers were active in the morning but vanished before the first hour of trade concluded.  The rest of the day was spent pressing higher slowly, then all at once after our authoritarian leader withdrew from the Paris accord.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5822 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5820.50.   Look for buyers down at 5818.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 5810 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5844.50 and continue exploring higher prices.

I will reserve taking any action to update my swing hedge (sell or add to $SQQQ) and aside from trading my very actionable hypothesis and market profile levels, will sit put until end-of-day.  If at end of day the bulls continue to dominate the tape, it will be time to eat crow and adjust my book slightly.

Developing…

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured move:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, June 1st flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways, trading inside the Wednesday range for the entire session.  At 8:15am ADP Employment change came out way stronger than expected.

USA ADP Employment Change for May 253.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 177.0K

The economic is running piping hot.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Initial/Continuing jobless claims at 8:30am.  However, investors are more likely to be focused on Friday’s Non-farm payroll data, if they’re focused on any economic data at all.

We also have ISM Manufacturing at 10am, then crude oil inventories at 11am.

Yesterday we printed the dreaded normal day where the first hour of trade is so dynamic that we never exceed it’s range.  This happens about 5% of the time.  Sellers drove lower off the open, agressively, then backed off as a bid appeared.  We spent the rest of the day slowly working higher.  The daily midpoint was a wall for several hours—a wall that was ultimately overtaken late in the day by a gregarious buying push.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to work down through overnight low 5797.75 and trade down to 5793.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 5775.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5809 and continue making record highs.  Look for sellers up at 5837.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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