NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price was balanced overnight, holding up along the upper quadrant of the Thursday trend day.

Any economic events to concern yourself with are already public knowledge.  At 8:30am both Housing Starts and Building Permits were solid beats.  Strong economy.

Yesterday we printed a trend day.  A pro gap up set the NASDAQ up to open along the top-edge of the Tuesday range.  Buyers immediately drove higher off the open, pressing to a new record high then continuing to slowly press all day.  A bit of profit taking came in near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, up through overnight high 6351.75 and poke beyond the Thursday high 6358.50.  Look for sellers up at 6364.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain prices above 6364.75 triggering a continuation of the trending higher. Open air.

It really is that simple.

Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low 6335.75.   Look for buyers ahead of 6327 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are trading near the Tuesday cash lower after an overnight session featuring elevated range and extreme volume.  Price worked lower overnight, slowly, helping to form the current microcomposite distribution we are in. At 8:30am both CPI and Retail Sales data come out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am and long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and early push lower.  This discovered a responsive bid and we traversed the entire morning range and eventually went range extension up.  After that another hard sell came in but it could not take out the day low.  Instead we drifted higher through ramping hour and into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press lower off the open, down through overnight low 6256.25 to tag 6241.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers to work in to the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6293.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6296.25 and close the gap up at 6312 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a move down to 6218 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways most of the night in a balanced session before making a small push lower heading into cash open.  At 5am USA’s best Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen spoke as part of a panel over at the European Central Bank.

The only other item on today’s economic docket is a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began gap down inside of the Friday range.  Buyers immediately stepped in and close the overnight gap.  The market then flagged out for much of the day before making a second leg higher.  This discovered a responsive sale towards the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down to 6289.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6312.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6318.25.  Look for sellers up at 6332.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 6253.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price traversed beyond both the high and low of last Friday’s range, in that order, and as we approach cash open prices are hovering along the Friday low.

The economic calendar is light to start the week.  We have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am then a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Last week we slow drift rallied through Wednesday, sold off Thursday morning, discovered a responsive bid Thursday afternoon and rallied into the weekend.  The Russell lagged.  The performance of each major index from last week is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up.  It was a mild day, but price managed to take out initial balance low and high.  The day began with a gap down, inside the Thursday range.  After a two-way auction, price briefly poked below IB low before spending the rest of the day slowly rallying and ultimately closing the overnight gap to-the-tick.

Methodical.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6309.25.  From here we continue higher, to about 6310 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 6253.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 6241.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, tagging the Thursday midpoint before discovering a responsive bid and coming into balance.

We have two economic events to watch out for today.  At 10am the University of Michigan will deliver their primary November reading of sentiment.  Then at 2pm a monthly budget statement.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a significant gap down.  An early gap-and-go-lower-type push discovered an early bid and buyers made an attempt higher.  Their efforts were thwarted.  Sellers defended an attempt back up into the Wednesday range and this set the stage for a continuation move lower.  Price pressed lower through lunch, tagging the naked VPOC left behind last Friday, November 3rd before discovering a strong responsive bid.  We then worked higher for the rest of the day, eventually taking out the initial balance high and closing above it, earning the day a neutral extreme designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is  for a move higher to close the overnight gap up at 6314.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6321.  Look for sellers up at 6333 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press up and close the Wednesday open gap at 6341.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 6286.25 and we find a bid around 6272 and two way trade ensues.\

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Futures of the NASDAQ are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price pushed a touch beyond record highs during extended trade before a strong responsive bid stepped in and knocked the market more than 60 points off its high.  As we approach cash open buyers are attempting to make a move back into the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data were mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began flat and after a two-way auction we began discovering higher prices, slowly, tagging the weekly ATR band above and stalling at the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject a move back into Wednesday’s low 6307.75 setting up a move to take out overnight low 6286.25.  From here we poke down to 6283 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 6263.50.

Hypo 3 buyers reclaim the Wednesday low 6286.25 setting up a gap fill up to 6341.50.  Look for sellers right around here and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are down about a half point ahead of opening bell Tuesday morning after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price poked up and made another new record high overnight before falling into balance.

On the economic docket today we have JOLTS job openings at 10am, both a 52- and 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 3-year Note auction at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began flat.  We drifted higher, then lower, forming a healthy two-way auction before ultimately drifting slowly higher into the afternoon and close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push up through overnight high 6331.50 and a tag of 6343.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 push down through overnight low 6305.25 and tag 6283.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 6343.25 triggering a trend-like move higher, up through open air.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week up a few points after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower Sunday evening but discovered before midnight and spent the rest of extended trade slowly working higher.

The economic calendar is light today.  We only have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am to concern ourselves with.

Last week markets worked sideways early in the week.  They drifted slightly higher.  Thursday morning feature selling, then Thursday afternoon through the close of the week featured a strong rally—just like we saw in the two weeks prior.  The Russell lagged, but the Russell made an outsized move during September that it is still consolidating.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend day.  The day began gap up.  Sellers quickly closed the overnight gap and a responsive bid showed up right around the Thursday close.  Buyers aggressively defended the area and we spent the rest of the day trending higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and work down through overnight low 6268.  Look for buyers down at 6263.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 6298.75 and struggle around the 6300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up to 6243.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price pushed lower during extended trade, tagging the 6200 century mark before discovering a strong responsive bid.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have President Trump declaring the new head of the Federal Reserve at 3pm.

We will solemnly miss Janet Yellen and the incredible stock market she has championed 🙁

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap up and we slowly faded lower all day, closing the open gap left behind Tuesday morning nearly to the tick before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, up to 6262.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up to 6284.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 6181.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, nearly uninterrupted, exploring open air during the Halloween night.  At 9:15am ADP employment data came out much better than expected.

We have an FOMC rate decision today at 2pm.  Traders down at the CME are currently pricing in a 98.5% probability of rates staying unchanged.  However, the third reaction after the decision is likely to dictate direction into the end of the week.

Also on the docket today we have ISM Manufacturing/Employment at 10am and crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Your ‘clue’ to work the long side was seller’s inability to close the overnight gap.  Instead responsive buyers stepped in ahead of the gap and we slowly worked higher, slowly working to new record heights.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt a move back into the Thursday range up at 6258.50. Sellers fail, and we rally up through overnight high 6284.50 and continue exploring open air until 2pm, then use third reaction to dictate action into the afternoon.

Hypo 2 sellers press a full gap fill down to 6252.50 then we continue lower, down through overnight low 6246.75.  Look for buyers down at 6240 and two way trade until 2pm, then use third reaction to dictate action into the afternoon.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, open air rally until FOMC at 2pm, then use third reaction to dictate action into the afternoon.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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