NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro-gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower, hard and fast overnight, trading down to the open gap left behind last Friday morning.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am and a 4- and 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.  The Presidential State of The Union Address is at 9pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began gap down and after a choppy opening battle we went range extension down.  By late lunch we had traversed the entire daily range and gone up through initial balance high, making us neutral.  However buyers could not close the overnight gap and we worked back down into the lower third of the range, earning the neutral extreme designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower, down though overnight low 6925.75.  Look for buyers down at 6918.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher and attempt a move back into the Monday range 6980.  Sellers defend here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 6880.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked up to a new record high before fading back down to 7000.  At 8:30am personal consumption expenditure data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10am, then a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week the broad indices were volatile Monday, trading higher, consolidated from Tuesday-to-Thursday, then rallied into the weekend. Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend day.  The day began with a gap higher.  Sellers stalled during an early attempt lower and we took out Thursday high.  Then after flagging along the highs a trend took hold, higher into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down to 6987.75 before two way trade ensues south of 7021.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7029.75.  From here they continue higher, up through overnight high 7047.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work down to 6962.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher, balancing out in the upper quadrant of Thursday trade.  At 8:30am advance goods trade balance, GDP, and durable goods all came out below expectations.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly drove down into.  Then, after a poking through overnight low a responsive bid stepped in and two way trade ensued.  Late in the afternoon the market went range extension down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6930.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6925.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers defend ahead of 6945 and we go higher, up through overnight high 6972.  Look for sellers up at 6996.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers gap-and-go higher, sustain trade above 6998.75 and push us to record highs to end the week.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Price was balanced overnight, until about 3:30am New York when a strong rally took shape.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic agenda today we have new home sales at 10am and a 7-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a slight gap up and two way auction.  After very briefly going range extension up, sellers defended 7000 and then pushed down through the entire daily range.  The selling accelerated though lunchtime, briefly tagging the naked volume point of control from Tuesday before a responsive bid stepped in and two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6932.50.  We continue lower, down through overnight low 6921.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers defend ahead of 6960 and we work higher, up through overnight high 6987.25.  Look for sellers up at 6996.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers gap-and-go higher, sustain trade above 6998.75 and thrust back to record highs.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the globex session before breaking higher early morning.  At 9am house price index data came out slightly below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have manufacturing/composite/service PMI data at 9:45am, existing home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a short squeeze shaped, normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher.  It quickly went range extension up then flagged sideways for the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt to regain the Tuesday high 6975.  Look for buyers to reject a move back into the range and work us up through overnight high 6995.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work a full gap fill down to 6965.50 then continue lower, down Look for buyers down at 6978 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers take us down to 6961.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price made a new record high overnight before settling into balance.

Yesterday, close-of-business marked the completion of a 10-day bull cycle that began on Friday, January 5th.  Here is the performance of each major US index over the 10-day period, as represented by their major ETFs:

The economic calendar is light today.  We have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap down in range.  Buyers quickly closed this then drove higher all morning, briefly resting during lunch, then continuing their campaign for the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to work higher, up through overnight high 6958 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 test down to 6900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight chop from 6945-to-6917.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was balanced during much of globex before springing higher early Friday morning.

The economic calendar is light today.  We have the preliminary sentiment reading out of University of Michigan at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down that was quickly filled.  Then we chopped along, in balance, eventually breakup up through initial balance high in the afternoon.  Then we settled back down to the midpoint by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 6852.75.  From here we continue higher, probing record highs into the weekend.

Hypo 2 sellers ahead of 6844, working into the overnight inventory and closing the gap down to 6812.25.  From here we continue lower, down to 6809.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 a liquidation is somehow triggered, taking us down to 6782.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and normal range.  Price briefly poked above the Wednesday cash high before rotating back down to the midpoint.  At 8:30am housing starts came out below expectations and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil at 11am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution up.  The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly closed off the open.  Then a strong responsive bid stepped in and slowly drove price higher for the rest of the day.  It ended up being an inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6824.50.  From here we continue higher, up though overnight high 6836.50.  Then a test above record high 6845.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 6798.25 and tag 6782.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 6771.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher after several hours of balance.  As we approach cash open, the market is hovering just above the midpoint from Tuesday’s range.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in lower than last week.

Also on the economic agenda today we have industrial production/manufacturing capacity at 9:15am, NAHB housing market index at 10am, the Fed’s Beige book at 2pm, and long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a pro gap up and early drive higher.  A strong responsive sell stepped in within 30 minutes of cash open and reversed the entire drive higher.  Then, sellers became initiative on the day and closed the entire weekend gap.  Then, the continued lower, pushing into the lower quadrant of the trend from last Friday, eventually finding a responsive bid towards the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6763.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 we drive higher off the open, trade up to 6818.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6825 setting up a move up to 6830.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Markets were closed Monday in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. day).  The NASDAQ is coming into the holiday shortened week pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume and elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, nearly uninterrupted, and as we approach cash open prices are at record highs.

The economic calendar is light today. We have US Treasury activity only.  They are auctioning off a 4-week T-bill at 11:30am.  Also a 3- and 6-month T-bill at 11:30am.

Last week we balanced early in the week then rallied into the weekend.  The last week performance is each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a strong drive higher after opening flat.  Then buyers became initiative inthe afternoon, continuing to press the market higher into the Friday close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory.  Look for buyers down at 6788.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-drive higher.  Look for trending action up through overnight high 6819.25.  Upside target is 6830.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press harder, down through overnight low 6776 then continue to close the weekend gap fill down to 6765.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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