NASDAQ up 33, here is the Thursday morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, ROLLFORWARD, with a 30 point gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, gyrating around inside the Wednesday range in a balanced manner.  As we approach cash open price is hovering at the Wednesday midpoint.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap up just beyond the Tuesday range.  Sellers attempted to trade back down into the Tuesday range but were rejected, setting up a drive higher that briefly took out last Friday’s trend down high and sustained trade above it for several hours.  Then, late in the session responsive sellers stepped in and reversed the day’s entire range.  We ended up pushing neutral late in the session and closing on the lows—still positive on the day due to the overnight gap.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 6837.75.  Look for sellers up at 6868 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6766.25 setting up a move down through overnight low 6752.  This sets up a move to close the Tuesday gap down at 6715.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6868 setting up a move to target 6900.  Stretch upside target is the composite VPOC at 6950.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday 100 points higher after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, erasing all of the downward progress sellers made intraday Tuesday, selling progress that came after we opened nearly 100 points higher yesterday.  As we approach cash open price has probed beyond the Tuesday high and is hovering beyond it.  At 8:30am consumer price index data came out in-line to slightly-better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 10-year note auction at 1pm, and a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up to near the high from last Friday’s trend down.  After a fierce battle between buyers and sellers at the open, sellers stepped in and began working price lower.  The steadily worked lower, eventually closing the 100 point gap and briefly probing below overnight low before two way trade ensued.  The day ended more-or-less flat after and afternoon responsive bid took price back to the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 6768.50.  Initiative buyers step in here (initiative relative to Tuesday’s close, responsive relative to today’s open) and we work up through overnight high 6824.25 setting up a move to target 6882.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up to 6900 and sustaining trade above the century mark, setting up a move to target the composite VPOC at 6950.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 6715.75 setting up a move down through overnight low 6671.75.  Look for buyers down at 6700 otherwise stretch side target to downside is 6600.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced in the upper quadrant of Monday’s cash range for much of the session before a 100-point unidirectional wave higher pressed prices higher around 5am.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near globex high, which is near last Friday’s opening print.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.  There are no other events.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a slight gap down after a 30 point gap up was erased just before opening bell.  Price spiked higher early on but was met with equal selling force just beyond overnight high.  Sellers then began campaigning lower, taking price down through Friday’s low.  However, an excess low formed before we could resolve the open gap down at 6530.50 and from then onward we began to campaign higher, steadily, pushing neutral by mid-afternoon, and closing at session high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade us down to 6722.  Buyers reject an attempt back into Monday’s high 6714.50 and we work higher, eventually taking out overnight high 6808.75.  Look for sellers up at 6832.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 6850 to set up a move to target 6882.25.  Stretch targets are 6900 then the composite VPOC at 6950.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 6699 then continue lower, down through overnight low 6655, setting up a move to target 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, taking out Friday’s low and trading down into the 11/22 range before rallying 120 points.  As we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Friday’s trend down.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am, followed by a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week was unique.  It began with a pro gap up then chop.  Tuesday began with a small gap down that buyers were unable to fill.  This resulted in a trend down Tuesday.  Wednesday the markets were closed in observation of President G.H.W. Bush’s death.  Thursday markets re-open with a pro gap down that is bought up through most of the day.  Friday said buying is erased as another round of selling/liquidation blows through, closing out on low-of-week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down.  The day began with a slight gap down that buyers resolved before the selling resumed.  Selling then lasted all day, trending lower right up until closing bell, talking us into the weekend on weekly lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6620.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6554 to tag the open gap down at 6530.50. Look for buyers down at 6526.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers continue the liquidation and we trade down to 6454.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers step in ahead of 6600 setting up a move to take out overnight high 6660.  Look for sellers up at 6709 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

As I ventured deeper into my Sunday routine of gathering and parsing out raw market data from the world’s financial complex, I found myself starting to slam the keys on my keyboard.  The outputs from IndexModel and Exodus began to make my plums tingle and the testosterone was being taken out on my computer. This is what happens when a good plan starts to come together.  This is when I start to become aggressive.  I see a fat pitch setting up into year-end; the type of buy signal you look back at in a few months with either a fully erect of wholly-limped penis.

And listen lads, research and blogging and tweeting is useful to me but make no mistake—I am far less concerned with being ‘right’ than I am with making money.  An observation I’ve made in my now 5-years as a full time traders and independent side hustler is that many of these cash ‘rich’ people are not intelligent nor are they often right.  They are barbaric and persistent.

Persistence.  That has been our theme into year-end.  The last Exodus hybrid oversold signal was a brutal tease.  At one point it saw prices on the NASDAQ higher by +7%, only to erase said gains by the time the signal completed:

Part of my Sunday research is parsing through the signals generated by Exodus, and translating them into an easy-to-consume human format for our members.  The data inside Exodus is so immense that it can seem esoteric and even downright archaic without a translator.

That is why they sent me.  I am the expert.  I only hope that history remembers me as being kind to the robots.

I SUBMIT THE CYCLE SHOWN ABOVE AS EXHIBIT ONE TO MY FAT PITCH THEORY.

EXHIBIT TWO: BUNKER BUSTER

When I first started building IndexModel, I was just logging the data and observing the outputs, waiting to see something interesting before digging in.  One of the interesting observations centered around when the spread between the average bias score of IndexModel minus the Exodus hybrid score resulted in a number that was less than zero.  This does not happen often.  The last time it happened in 2018 was on April 1st.  We can look back on that time and easily see that bears were made to be fools that week.  That signal marked the swing low for the next six months.

The other two Bunker Buster signals in 2018 were on 2/05 and 3/24.  The 3/24 signal happened the week before the 04/01 signal.  That being said, this ‘fat pitch’ may take more than one week to fully realize itself.  But overall, what the signal calls for is an acceleration to the downside that ultimately leads to a tradable low.  Long time reader and Exodus member UncleBuccs named the signal, and I’ve always felt that he named it exceptionally well.  I like to name my signals in a way that reflects the behavior historically seen and a bunker buster missile is a good mental visualization to keep in mind this week.

EXHIBIT THREE:

Massive negative skew in industry performance.  Another observation from Strategy Session.  We look at weekly industry returns with an absolute value greater than 3.  That shows us the abnormal movement.  These industries are placed onto a ledger and basically I eyeball the ledger to see when it radically skews.  This week is the biggest negative skew ever observed:

The two outsized positive returns on the left? Silver and gold.  L.O.L.  Primal fear has gripped the market and people have fled to shiny metal.  When we’ve seen big skews like this historically, it has meant continuation in the direction of the skew in the upcoming week.  In other word, industry money flows suggest more downside to come.  This fits into our downside acceleration theme.

EXHIBIT FOUR:

ROLLFORWARD.  This week, on Thursday, most active futures traders will migrate away from the December index futures contracts and start trading the March ’19 contracts.  From close-of-trade Thursday until the FOLLOWING Friday, 12/21, is a set and setting rife for chicanery and downright fuckery.  Volume statistics, cum delta, all sorts of usually useful raw data bits futures traders use to gain an edge verse the institutions, are rendered worthless by rollforward activity—the unwinding of huge positions in the December futures and rolling that money forward to the March contract.

Fuckery that is likely to accelerate us to the downside and ultimately form a tradable low…

EXHIBIT FIVE

Santa Claus

EXHIBIT SIX

“Didn’t hit nothing important.”  My only buy-and-hold add so far, during this market rout, was that nice Italian sounding biotechnology stock.  A stock that I ‘Simple Jacked’ into, thinking it was a CRISPR stock.  Turns out it is not, but as a company they do seek the same outcome as CRISPR—IMMORTALITY.  The alchemists stone.  The holy cup.  The trident of Poseidon.   Hopefully I am not jinxing this buy, buy so far my entry has been validated by the market.

EXHIBIT SEVEN

I had an exhibit seven but then my A.D.D. kicked in.

Listen lads, the bunker buster signal can be extremely difficult to trade.  The key is waiting for that capitulation low AND a strong responsive buyer to step in.  Sometimes we gap down huge into Monday and the buying begins right off the rip, marking the low right then and there.  That is when it is most tricky.  So the key here, is not BEING RIGHT.  The key is making money.  Stick to your process, I’ll stick to my process, and let’s go get that bread.

I do believe we are very near swing low for the next several months.  If we catch it right, holiday seasonality should validate our low and then carry clean through into 2019.  Fat pitch.

Exodus members, the 212th edition of Strategy Session is live.  You have to read this one, go check it out!

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly probing up beyond Thursday high.  Selling overnight was contained to the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near Thursday’s high.  At 8:30am non-farm payroll data came out worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have University of Michigan’s primary December reading of sentiment at 10am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a pro gap down after the Wednesday market holiday and the Tuesday trend down.  The first hour of trade was choppy and formed a wide initial balance.  We very briefly broke the IB to the downside just before New York lunch, right as the European markets were closing, and instantly discovered a strong responsive bid.  This was a failed auction to the downside and it led to a strong rally that traversed the entire daily range to go neutral before continuing higher to close the overnight gap.  We ended near session high.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6826.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6856.50 setting up a move to target 6900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 6764.50 setting up a move to target 6700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, initially spiking about 200 points lower at the open of globex at 6pm, before recovering 100 of the points within five minutes.  After chopping sideways for many hours, the futures began working lower again around 10pm.  As we approach cash open prices are hovering near the globex lows, at levels unseen since last Tuesday. At 8:15 ADP employment data came out below expectations.  At 8:30am trade balance data came out below expectations.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic agenda today we have ISM non-manufacturing/service composite at 10am, factory/durable goods orders at 10am, crude oil inventories at 11am, and both a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Traders also need to keep an eye on the mounting tensions between China and USA as trade wars and tariff commentary continue to affect NASDAQ prices.

Yesterday the NASDAQ was closed in observation of President George H.W. Bush’s death.  On Tuesday the NASDAQ printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down and tight open auction/chop.  Sellers pressed down through the low, which aligned with the Monday low.  This triggered a quick liquidation that erased the gap up we had to begin the week.  Sellers continued lower, trading down into last Wednesday’s conviction buying.  We ended the session at the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  The higher timeframe will be active as we are way out of balance.  Look for a gap-and-go lower.  Look for sellers to trade down through overnight low 6630.25 setting up a move to target 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to close the gap at 6530.50.  Look for buyers down at 6526.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and trade up through overnight high 6842 setting up a move to target 6882.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, taking out the Monday cash low before discovering a responsive bid about 15 points ahead of the Friday gap left behind over the weekend on Trade Wars updates over the weekend.  As we approach cash open price is hovering inside Monday’s lower quadrant.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 1pm. Reminder: the stock market is closed tomorrow in observation of President George H.W. Bush’s death.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a pro gap up and open two-way auction.  The chop eventually led to a range extension lower. Responsive buyers (responsive relative to Monday open, initiative relative to Friday close) prevented price from probing very far into the weekend gap, and we ended the day back up at session midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7059.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7068.  Look for sellers up at 7077.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7114 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower trading down through overnight low 6980.25 setting up a weekend gap fill down to 6965.75.  Look for buyers at the composite VPOC 66950 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price shot higher on presumed progress in the tariff discussions, or trade wars between China and the US.  As we approach cash open price is trading at price levels unseen since November 9th.

On the economic calendar today we have construction spending at 10am, ISM manufacturing/employment at 10am, and a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.  Reminder, US markets will be closed Wednesday December 5th in observation of the death of George H.W. Bush, 41st President of the United States.

Last week began with a gap up and buyers asserting price higher.  Price continued to work higher all week long, even trending higher Wednesday.  The week ended near high-of-week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down and sellers attempting lower.  Responsive buyers stepped in just below Thursday’s midpoint and shortly after 10:30am we were range extension up.  Price then chopped along the daily midpoint for much of the session before rallying to a new weekly high in the afternoon, pressing up through the composite high volume node at 6950.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  We are coming into the first trading day in December way out of balance and there is an uncommon, nearly unplanned market holiday mid-week.  Look for the higher time frame to be engaging the market early on. Eventually look for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7040.  Look for buyers down at 7023.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7139, setting up a move to target 7150 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 6965.75.  Expect some chop at the composite VPOC 6950, then look for buyers down at 6922.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

After penning my last entry I embarked on an hour-long drive up a country highway.  They’ve spent the last decade building this stretch of road.  It’s flat and smooth.  It was unseasonably warm and sunny so I starting thinking.  A starling murmuration gyrated above the road, and I remembered how I ended the first paragraph of my entry with ‘Hail Satan.’  What an absurd thing to write, on a Sunday no less.

I have a strange way of coping with things like death or taxes or insurance or organized religion.  Apparently I write shock blogs, worship billionaires, and praise the numeric output of algorithms.

At the core of these behaviors my intentions are pure—to extract as many US dollars as possible from the financial complex whilst keeping a trader blog which conveys and demonstrates real-time, for all the world to see, the mindset that allows a person to consistently engage markets in a repeatable matter to produce consistent results

The blogging is somewhat self-serving, just like weight training.  It serves as a sick kind of mirror I use to find and suss out any odd goblins hiding in my psyche.  I hope it adds value for the reader who is struggling to refine their own mental gymnastic skills and learn to trade.

Near the end of my drive a starling torpedoed just above my windshield that was apparently playing some high speed game of chicken with my car.  I came back to the present and realized how my recent trading performance, while only minorly tweaked, had produced serendipitous returns and that they appeared to have gone to my head, turning me into some kind of overly aggressive rage blogger.  The last thing I want is for that to spill over into my trading or day-to-day behavior.  Sick kind of mirror blogging is.

I apologize for my last blog and acknowledge that it made some dumb claims.  Foremost, asserting that science caused Christianity to shatter.  Christianity shattered into a thousand pieces certainly more so due to the rebellious protestants of Germany.  Science played a lesser role in dissolving the sadistic claim to control the outcome of all mortal souls made by Roman Catholicism.  Not that any of it matters.  The end of one dragon created a thousand more or something.  Again, I don’t know about these things except that I don’t think they really matter to me.  I am simply tasked with earning enough income to relive me of any obligation to an employer or master and being kind to all earth’s inhabitants.

To all earth’s inhabitants.  That includes the political evangelists from the south.  So I am sorry.  I feel bad about the crazy things I’ve written today and many more times in the past, and I will be taking a hard stance against writing that kind of guff again.

I am going to spend the rest of this warm winter day pulling weeds.

mahalo, namaste, and amen