With old school conservative beliefs gone, I only trust the robots

H.W. is the first President I remember from my childhood.  “Read my lips: no new taxes,” stuck with me.  I didn’t understand taxes, but I saw that taxes angered adults, and this feller was going on the TV and promising no new taxes.  So he seemed like a pretty solid dude.  I knew about as much about politics then as I do now, which is next to nothing.  But I remember liking conservatives back then, back before it became a political arm of the evangelical christian institution, which I find to be the most vile entity on the planet. Hail Satan.

It’s not the christian people I have an issue with.  It’s the institution, and how they are invading our political system and jeopardizing the foundations of America.  The America H.W. made stronger during Desert Storm—a sweeping victory that sent a message across the world that America is the best, #1.

This year has had a transitional vibe to it.  The passing of our 41st President here at year-end only solidifies that feeling.  Enough about feelings and christians.  The algorithms are all bullish heading into the first week of December.

And by golly, all I am here to do is carry out the commands of my robot overlords.  The rest of the information generated by humans interacting with the world is noise when it comes to short term trading, and I need to trade well short term.

I slayed last week.  Slayed.  Best week in months.  I hope you did too, and I hope you all have a prosperous go at the markets this December.

Human interaction is actionable long-term.  This requires long-term patience, short-term urgency.  Like climate change.  We need to urgently address this issue which is why it is so important that we defend the efforts of Elon Musk and his crack team of engineers and scientists.  They are showing us what happens when capitalism attacks an issue—progress.  They seem to even have NASA stoked again and doing good work.  Would NASA be planning to send folks to Mars had it not been for the curious developments at SpaceX?  We don’t know.  That is a different simulation entirely.

What we do know is that TSLA is the absolute best long term investment available on the public stock markets.  Also we know that science shattered the absurd grip christians had on the modern world once before (indulgence, anyone?), and science will topple these flat-earth, conspiracy-loving psychopaths again.

It is best to side with the scientists, believe me.

And the robots.  And the robots are bullish heading into the first week of December.

Behave accordingly.

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price was balanced overnight, trading inside of the Thursday range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Thursday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have Chicago purchasing manager at 9:45am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap down and two-way auction.  Sellers pressed us range extension down, however the LVN observed as part of yesterday’s hypo 2 was defended by responsive buyers.  Said buyers eventually worked a full gap fill and briefly pressed us RE up, into a neutral print, before we drifted back to the mid by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, taking out overnight high 6917.50 setting up a move to test beyond the Thursday high 6943.75.  Look for sellers at the composite VPOC 6950 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7000.  Look for sellers up at 7022.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 6871.50 and continue lower, down through Thursday low 6843 setting up a move to target 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price poked 4 points above the Wednesday cash high before coming into balance in the upper quad of Wednesday’s trend day.  As we approach cash open price is hovering below 6900 in the middle of a microbalance.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, 3-, 6-, and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11am, Fed speak from two members at 2pm alongside the 2pm Fed release of minutes from their last meeting, and Fed balance sheet at 4:30p.

Yesterday we printed a trend day.  The day began with a gap up out of range and slight drift lower.  Buyers rejected an attempt to trade back into the Tuesday range and as we went into the Jerome Powell talk at 11am price was compressed into a coil.  Something the Fed chairman said shot prices higher which set off a trend up to the huge microcomposite value area low at 6800.  Price soon traveled beyond 6800 and sustained trade inside the big value, setting up a move to traverse the entire value and tag the top around 6900.  We closed pretty much at session high.

Trend day.

The only caveat is value never shifted higher from where it was set during the morning coil.  The daily VPOC still resides down at 6735.50.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6923.50.  From here we continue higher, up to the composite VPOC at 6950 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 6866 and sustain trade below LVN at 6860.50 setting up a move down to 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers erase the entire Powell rally, trade us back down to the ‘scene of the crime’ at 6750.  We tag the Wedneday NVPOC at 6735.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, and as we approach cash open prices are hovering above the midpoint of last Monday’s (Monday before Thanksgiving) liquidation day.  At 8:30am GDP came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have oil inventories at 8:30am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at 11:30am in New York, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and open two-way auction.  Responsive buyers stepped in just below overnight low and then began a campaign to take close the overnight gap.  We then returned to the daily midpoint, which buyers defended early in the afternoon, setting up a move back towards session high near end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher.   Up above, 6800 aligns nicely with the value area low of a major zone that formed in the weeks leading up to the holiday.  Look for sellers to defend here.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6811 setting up a move to tag the VPOC of that big value area at 6873 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6712.25.  Look for buyers down at 6693.50 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after Jerome Powell to provide direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of globex until about 3am when a recycled ‘trade wars’ news piece caused prices to spike higher.  The spike looks algo driven, and it cleared out several levels of resistance in its wake.  Price subsequently erased the gains and as we approach cash open prices are hovering below Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have case-shiller home price index at 9am, consumer confidence at 10am, a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 5-year note auction at 1pm, and Fed speak from three Fed bankers at 2:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap up and beyond the Friday half-day range.  Buyers drove higher on the open, stalling just before closing the gap left behind last Monday-to-Tuesday.  Responsive sellers pushed the market range extension down but initiative buyers (initiative relative to Friday’s close, responsive relative to Monday’s open) rejected a move back into Friday range.  We then rallied into the close, traversing the entire day’s range, closing the last Monday-to-Tuesday gap, and closing near session high.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6670.  From here we continue higher, back up to the algo spike ‘scene of the crime’ taking out overnight high 6712.50.  This triggers a rally up to 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out after closing overnight gap 6670 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 6622.25 and continue lower, down to 6591.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, uni-directional up, trading up into last Monday’s trend down range briefly before discovering responsive sellers.  As we approach cash open price is hovering down below Monday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bills up for auction at 11am, 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30am, and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week started off with a gap down and liquidation sale lower.  The selling continued overnight Monday and we had a big gap down Tuesday.  This gap down discovered a strong responsive bid early Tuesday and the rest of the week was light, with the holiday on Thursday reducing volume for the rest of the week.  The Russell and NASDAQ demonstrated relative strength during the holiday drift, never returning to their Tuesday low, unlike the S&P and Dow which did take out their lows later in the week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day.  It was a half day.  There is not much insight to gain from it.  Wednesday was a normal day also.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, reclaiming last Monday’s range by taking out overnight high 6655 and closing the Monday gap at 6672 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 6600.  Buyers reject a move back into the Friday range (6601.50) and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 6530.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 6522.  Look for buyers down at 6527 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Perseverance is my theme into year-end.  I never like to look too far out.  On Sunday, I create a forecast for the upcoming trading week.  Then every morning I establish my plan for the upcoming day, and two alternative scenarios to choose from if the market proves me wrong.  The morning plan is usually complete by noon.  Then the afternoon creates more information.  The next day we make a new plan, and so on.

My brain is wired differently for investing.  I took selling off the table.  Investment accounts do not sell.  Ever.  These accounts just accumulate quarterly with the belief that people are good and humanity is on a long-term bullish trajectory.

With all that being said, going into a very clean calendar style month-end, and with some nudges from my most trusted algorithms, I am bullish until Wednesday 11:30am when Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in New York.  After I see the market react to his words, I will have my bias until the Thursday at 2pm when the FOMC releases minutes from their last meeting.  Then after observing this reaction I will have my bias into week’s end.

One foot in front of the other gets you where you’re going.

What I have demonstrated over the years on this most unholy blog is how I persevere as a trader.  Trading is simple, but it certainly is not easy.  It is a tough gig, emotionally, featuring bouts of over confidence followed by the uncertainly of a draw down.  Long term patience. Short term urgency.

Keep your equity and expectancy curves trending long-term higher and trust your discipline.

Exodus members, the 210th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

NASDAQ futures are coming into the day after Thanksgiving gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping sideways below the Wednesday range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit manufacturing/service/composite PMI at 9:45am.  There is also an early close at 1pm.

On Wednesday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and test above the Tuesday high.  This saw the market stall out and we marked time for the rest of the session, ultimately holding on the overnight gap despite some selling late in the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6575.75.  From here we continue higher to 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower, down through overnight low 6518.25 setting up a move to target 6500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers sustain trade below 6500 setting up a move to target 6422.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday, day before Thanksgiving, gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, exploring higher prices but staying inside the Tuesday range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Tuesday high.  At 8:30am durable goods and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have leading index, existing home sales, and the final November reading of U. of Michigan sentiment at 10am, followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a pro gap down and wide two-way auction.  The opening behavior discovered a responsive bid down below overnight low and we spent the rest of the morning working higher.  Sellers rejected an attempt back into Monday range, instead rotating the market back down to the daily midpoint through most of the afternoon.  We closed near, but below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up and close the Monday open gap at 6672.  From here we continue higher up to 6700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6532.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6509.  Look for buyers down at 6500 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 6730 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trending down the entire globex session.  As we approach cash open, we are trading at price levels unseen since early April.  At 8:30am housing starts data came out below expectations and building permits came in above expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we 4- and 8-week T-bills being auctioned off at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down into the week and selling drive lower.  The selling was steady and methodical, with price closing near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for violent chop.  Price is way out of balance and the higher timeframe is likely to be active on the open.  Look for buyers to work a half gap fill up to about 6600 before sellers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower.  Trade down to 6423.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full-on-liquidation.  Prices sustain below 6400 setting up a move to target 6300 then look for buyers down at 6277.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves: