iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,086 Blog Posts

Day after trend rules apply: here is the Thursday morning NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range on normal volume.  Price was balanced overnight, hovering along the bottom quadrant of Wednesday’s range.  As we approach cash open price has yet to take out Wednesday’s low.  At 8:15am ADP employment data came out below expectations.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out above expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have ISM non-mfg/services data and factory orders at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 11am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower, a selling drive that pressed clean through the first hour of trade.  Sellers briefly pushed the market into RE down just after the first hour.  Then we worked back to the daily midpoint, which sellers defended.  We spent the rest of the session inside the lower half of the daily range but never making new lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 7509.75.  Look for buyers down at 7495.75 (08/24 gap) and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade us down to 7487 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 7544.50 and sustain trade above it, setting up a move to target 7597.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Strong US Trade Balance data, here is the Wednesday morning NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, staying inside Tuesday’s range before coming into balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering along Tuesday’s midpoint.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data came out better-than-expected.

There are no other major economic events today.  Federal Reserve’s Kashkari is giving a talk at 4pm that may be interesting but will likely not impact today’s tape.  Fed’s Bullard is speaking at 9:20am but Bullard is rarely a market mover.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began gap down, down to last Thursday’s low.  Sellers drove lower off the open, rejecting us away from the Thursday range.  We traded right down to the weekly lower ATR band where a strong responsive bid stepped in and drove price up through the entire daily range and briefly pushed us range extension up.  Sellers stepped in again and worked us lower, nearly taking out the morning low.  But responsive buyers showed up again and we slowly rallied for the rest of the day. closing near the daily high but not making a new high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7640.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7644.75 setting up a move to target the labor day gap at 7668.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7595.25 settign up a move to target the open gap at 7578.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7668.25 setting up a move to target 7682.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ begins the holiday shortened week down a quick -20, here’s the Tuesday morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower early this morning after spending much of the globex session in balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering just below last Friday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have construction spending and ISM employment/manufacturing at 10am followed by a 4-week, 3-month, and 6-month T-bill auction 11:30am.

Last week began with a gap up and drive higher across the board.  The rally continued into Wednesday.  Then we saw divergent strength from the tech-heavy NASDAQ while the other indices retraced.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a slight gap down that buyers closed.  Buyers discovered a responsive seller ahead of the Thursday high and we spent the rest of the session slowly grinding lower—eventually going RE down late in the session before bouncing back to the midpoint end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7672.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7693.75.  Look for sellers up at 7700 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7700 setting up a move to the measured move target of 7739.50.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 7628.50 setting up a move to target 7600 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Model bullish, still very bullish

Greetings lads,

I hope everyone is enjoying their Labor Day weekend.  The model is bullish for a third consecutive week—it is calling for upward pressure on the tape these next four trading days.  Four because US markets are closed Monday in observation of Labor day.

The model has been on a run.  It was short bias three weeks back during a down week.  Then bullish these last two weeks.  The trading over these last few weeks had a meaningful impact on my life.  Hopefully I can continue to dominate the NASDAQ arena.

I talk to plants and have been avoiding the popular conversations on Twitter like, is THE MSM trying to normalize pedophilia?  It’s not—they just know what achieves clicks—and these dying media companies live by the click.

Was Ariana Grande out of line for wearing a sexy black dress to Aretha Franklin’s funeral?  She wasn’t.  Wear whatever you want whenever you want.  Just be kind to people.  And animals and plants.

Is Tesla…never mind.  Tesla is Tesla.

There is one thing you should know for certain.  If you want to redo the hardscape around your property, hire a company.  Otherwise you will launch a campaign that will literally test every bit of your physical stamina and sanity.  You may take a year off your life—racing the clear all the sod before the rain comes.  Making hay while the sun shines.  Hammering 70 ten inch spikes into the ground.  Changing the grade with a shovel and wheeled barrow.  Laying 50lb blocks to form retaining walls.

If you do not have machinery or access to three Mexicans—real Mexicans—not some swarthy rednecks who listen to Alex Jones.  Real Mexicans, that say, “gracias senor,” when you delegate to them a task.  Real Mexicans, not trust fund hipsters who grow lettuce on rooftops.  Real Mexicans, hard working, loyal, resistant to sunburn.  Real Mexicans, with dancing horses and underground channels into Juarez.  Real Mexicans, that bring out the whole familia because we’re picking watermelons today Mexicans.  Eating grass to make it another day Mexicans.

If you do not have access to real Mexicans at the prevailing rate for undocumented workers, then hire a company.

I am on day 12 of laboring from sunrise-to-8:30am, then trading/doing computer work from 9-11am, then laboring until sundown.  I’ve caused permanent damage to certain parts of my body.  I am sure of it.  And it looks like about 8 more hard days before the project is complete.  Hire a company.  You are a good person, your inner masochist is malnourished and meek.  Mine is an 800lb gorilla.  Hire a company.

Anyways, model is bullish.  Enjoy your late-summer and let me be the first to welcome you to September.

mahalo

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Victory lap: Here’s the Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the Friday before USA Labor Day with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Thursday range overnight and as we approach cash open prices are hovering near Thursday’s low.

On the economic agenda today we have Chicago purchasing manager at 9:45am followed by a final reading of July sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Day started gap down and with buyers working the gap fill.  Then they continued rallying, stopping just shy of the 7700 century mark before discovering a responsive seller.  Sellers quickly traversed the entire daily range putting us into our second range extension.  The tail-end of the session was spent drifting back towards the mean.

Neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7648.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7663.25.  Look for sellers ahead of 7670 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up through Thursday high 7697 and probe the 7700 level.  Open air, could continue to rally.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7635.25 setting up a move to target 7610.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Day after trend day rules apply, here is the Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and normal range.  Price poked up to a new record high overnight before settling into balance in the upper quadrant of yesterday’s trend day.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near the high but down gap about 18 points.  At 8:30am personal consumption data came out in-line with expectations and at 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out in line with expectations.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap-and-go higher.  Buyers drove up through the open air, eventually coming into a tight balance just above 7650 before continuing to trend up into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7669.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7674.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7647.25.  Look for buyers down at 7631.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers press hard, rejecting down through yesterday’s trend, trading us down to 7610 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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Another record high overnight, here is the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, briefly taking out the Tuesday cash high and lifting the all-time-high watermark before settling into balance.  At 8:30am GDP data came out better-than-expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have pending home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate auction at 11:30am, and  7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and after a brief morning auction sellers stepped in and closed the gap.  Buyers responded near the gap zone and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to wok into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7578.75.  Look for buyers around 7575 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out overnight high 7600 and continue exploring open air.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down through overnight low 7567.25 setting up a move to target 7557.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measures moves:

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Open air – here’s the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price was balanced overnight and continued working higher after Monday’s strong performance.  At 8:30am advance goods trade balance data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have the case-shiller home price index at 9am, consumer confidence at 10am, a 4-week t-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we nearly printed a trend up.  The day began gap up.  After a brief two-way open auction buyers drove higher, trading right up to the weekly upper ATR bracket before settling into a tight range.  Price closed near session high.

Higher all day, closed near high, but not quite a trend day.  Nearly a trend day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7568.25.  Look for buyers down at 7565.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers continue exploring open air.  Gap-and-go higher.  We have no overhead reference points to target.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down though 7565.25 setting up a move to take out overnight low 7554.50.  Look for buyers up at 7534.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ takes out all-time high overnight, here is the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher overnight, briefly trading above all-time highs.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering right at record highs.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed  by a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week we saw all major US indices slowly trend higher.  Many days started strong then ended weak, but come Friday the markets rallied and held the gains into the weekend.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher.  Then buyers sustained the prices through the afternoon to close out the week near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 7500.  Buyers reject a move back into the Friday range and we work higher, up through overnight high 7534.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher.  Open air.  Look for sellers at the measured move target 7565.25.

Hypo 3 sellers reclaim Friday range 7500 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to take out overnight low 7486.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Very clean Friday month-end and models are bullish

Not much to say here folks.  I started prepping the strategy session then stopped to enjoy a long picnic on the island.

Came back. Pretty tired.  Finished the strategy session.  The model is bullish.

Highest spread reading since October 15th, 2017.  Well over +1.00.  This is a small sample set of the model, readings over one.  Not much we can confidently forecast from these extreme readings until we have a sample set around 50.  But, this chart shows prior spread readings equal-to or greater-than 1.00:

The month of August is coming to an end.  The full moon is behind us and the 31st lands on a Friday.  This is all very good and I am projecting bullishness onto these coincidental facts.

You can pay attention to the news.  I’ll take my cues from the perennials.

The moon rulez #1

Exodus members, the 197th strategy session is live, go check it out.  Check out those trannys.

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