NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price continued lower, trading down into the late-February range before settling into balance.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the House Price index at 9am, Existing home sales at 10am, and crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  Futures opened gap up and briefly probed above the swing high set during Globex on March 15th.  Shares then quickly reversed, rejecting the breakout and liquidating hard to the downside.  The selling continued for the entire session, eventually closing the February month-end gap down at 5332.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5315 and continue lower, down to the 5300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5339.50 and tag 5353.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 liquidation continues.  Sellers sustain trade below 5295.50 setting up another leg lower, down to 5275 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight and is tracking above our current regular trading hour’s high as we head into the open.

The economic calendar is quiet again today.  The US Treasury is auctioning off 4-week T-bills at 11:30am.  Federal Reserve’s George is set to speak around noon, but investors are not likely to pay much attention to him.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The week began flat, worked higher, up through the Friday high before reversing the entire daily range and pushing neutral, right down into the zone where we spiked higher post FOMC rate hike last week, where buyers were again found, who pushed us back to the middle of the day’s range.

Heading into day my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze up through overnight high 5434.75 and trade above the current Globex high/swing high at 5440 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers into the overnight inventory closing the gap down to 5418.50 then down through overnight low 5413.50.  Look for buyers down at 5411 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5411.75 setting up a trend day and exploration of open air above.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are starting the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, pressing all the way down into the post FOMC rate hike rally before finding bidders and returning flat.

The economic calendar starts out extra light this week.  The US Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills at 11:30am.  The rest of the day is free.  Low-level Fed Reserve official Evans is speaking at 1:10pm, but little attention will be paid to him.

Last week the Russell rallied hard while the other indices marked time.  This rally came from the low-end of a multi-month range in the Russell, which was critical for buyer to hold if the bull case were to remain intact, intermedite term.  The performance of each major index can be seen below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down.  Price opened flat, went range extension down.  Sellers could not take out the Thursday low.  Instead buyers came in and auctioned price back up through the entire daily range, making new daily highs before the entire move was reversed by sellers, back down through the entire range, to close near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up though overnight high 5409 and tag the MCVPOC at 5414.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 5421.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5396 and trade down to 5389.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday trade flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Thursday range overnight on balanced trade.

On the economic front, we have the primary read of Confidence from U. of Michigan at 10am.  Leading Indicators are also out at 10am, then at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  A gap up was quickly faded lower and price continued lower, down through overnight, then catching a bid just ahead of the 5400 century mark.  Two-way trade ensues afterwards.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5411.  Look for a test below Thursday low 5402.25 and a continued move lower down to 5400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5424.50 and continue higher, up through weekly high 5431.50, working toward the globex swing high at 5440 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down to 5389.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, making new highs before settling around the Wednesday, post-FOMC rate hike high.  At 8:30am a slurry of economic data came out mixed.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  There was a gap up in the morning that sellers quickly faded.  Then sellers could not press range extension down, instead stalling just before 10:30am.  Then the march higher began, and it accelerated after the Fed raised their benchmark interest rate at 2pm.  Third reaction yielded the buy signal and we continued higher into to bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work through overnight high 5440 and continue exploring higher prices, open air.  No target or price levels are in play.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 5419.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5414.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling presses down through overnight low 5414.50 then tags the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked down through the Wednesday/Thursday low overnight and tested the Tuesday high before settling into balanced trade.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-manufacturing Composite at 10am, Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, and an economic outlook speech from Fed Chair Yellen at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Sellers engaged the market all morning and became initiative late in the afternoon.  They were unable to take out the Wednesday low during the regular session before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5365.25.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5345.50 to tag 5372.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 5345.25 and target the open gap down at 5332 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5372.50 setting up a move to target 5380.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the upper mid of Wednesday’s trend up during balanced trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came in mixed.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price was gap up, nearly to new all-time highs and after a brief two-way open auction buyers began campaigning higher, searching for sellers up in the open air.  Toward the very end of the day, during settlement period, there was some responsive selling.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5393.75 and probe all time high 5400.  Look for price to continue exploring higher.

Hypo 2 seller work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5384.75 then take out overnight low 5379.50.  Look for buyers down at 5375 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work down to 5367.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ future are coming into Wednesday, March 1st gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price held the Tuesday mid, then just after midnight rallied hard and to new highs.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in well above last week, and at 8:30am Personal Spending data was mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Sellers emerged shortly after the open, then became initiate during the New York lunch hour.  Price worked down to about Monday’s midpoint before responsive buyers emerged and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze up through overnight high 5369.50 to tag 5375 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 5375 setting up a trend up.

Hypo 3 seller work into the overnight inventory, down to 5350 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers push a full gap fill down to 5332 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the last day of the second month under our new authoritarian regime flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the upper quadrant of Monday’s range on balanced trade.  At 8:30am GDP data was worse than expected, and at 9am the Case-Shiller Composite-20 data was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, then a 4- and 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Investors are likely to withhold major decisions, however, until after President Trump speaks to congress Tuesday night at 9pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price began the week gap down and after a brief spat of morning selling right down to last Friday’s naked volume point of control, buyers were back in control, slowly working price higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press higher, up through overnight high 5349.25 to tag 5354 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sustain trade above 5354 and probe all-time highs 5359.50.  Stretch target is 5375.

Hypo 3 press down through overnight low 5340.75 and trade down to about 5332.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation down to 5310.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are heading into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session was balanced, overall.  Price went up and exceeded the Friday high before retracing most of the Friday afternoon ramp.  At 8:30am Durable Goods orders were pretty bad and by bad I mean well below expectations—especially Ex-Transportation.

Other economic events on the agenda today are Pending Home Sales at 10am, and a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, $34B and $28B respectively.

Last week we essentially marked time.  Prices drifted sideways after gapping up into the holiday shortened week.  The chart below displays the weekly return of each major US index:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  It opened gap down and made a new low on the week before finding a strong responsive bid.  After some two-way for most of Friday, there was a strong afternoon ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5343.25 before we churn around at the 5340 level.  Eventually we go take out overnight high 5352.50 but look for sellers just above at 5353.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5331 and tag 5327 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down though 5325.50 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target 5310.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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