NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new highs briefly, around 6am, before flattening back out.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have Wholesale Inventories at 10am and a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  A gap down was sold early on but quickly formed an excess low suggesting the presence of strong responsive buying.  We then rallied up through the Tuesday high and sustained above it.  A late-day ramp higher was faded.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the small gap down to 5191.25 then continue lower through overnight low 5186.25.  Look for buyers down around 5175 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers continue exploring higher prices, take out overnight high 5201.75 and probe higher.  Open air.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 5157.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held high balance overnight in slow, two-way trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications data came out better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the US Treasury is auctioning off $24 billion worth of 10-year Notes.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After starting the day gap up to new all-time highs, price drove higher until nearly lunchtime.  Then, we formed excess high right around where one would expect to see algorithims hunting stop orders.  Sellers pressured the tape for the rest of the afternoon but gained little traction.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5171.25 and work a gap fill down to 5158.  Buyers show up here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 take out overnight high 5187.75 and continue working new highs.  Take out Tuesday high 5192 and tag the 5200 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5138.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures set to gap higher into Tuesday after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up to and sustaining new highs as we approach cash open.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data was slightly worse than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, a 4-week and 34-day T-bill auction at 11:30am, $24 billions dollar’s worth of 3-year Notes being auctioned at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After starting the week gap down, buyers quickly showed up and bid the market higher.  They continued their campaign late in the afternoon to close near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze higher early on, up to 5182.  Look for sellers up here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger squeeze up to 5191.25, then seller show up and begin reversing the move.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5191.25 setting the stage for a real rally.

Hypo 4 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5158 then set their sights on overnight low 5154.25.  Look for buyers down at 5150.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Monday of February gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price chopped around inside last Friday’s range in balanced trade, however as we approach cash open there is some selling pressure hitting the tape.

The economic docket is light all week, and today we only have two T-bill auctions to monitor, both at 11:30 am, the 3- and 6-month duration, $34B and $28B respectively.

Last week began with a hard sell that was bought.  Then a gap down Tuesday that traded the same way, lower in the morning than higher in the afternoon.  Wednesday was gap up and range bound, and the rest of the week marked time.  The performance of each major US index can be seen below:

On Friday we printed a normal variation down on the NASDAQ.  After opening gap up closing the gap left behind when we came into last week, price stalled, and excess high formed and we poked below initial balance low for a second.  Then we slowly traded higher through the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push off the open and trade down to the open gap down at 5130.75.  Sellers continue lower, closing the gap down at 5119.25 as well.  Look for responsive buyers down at 5118.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5154.75.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5160 and test above all time high.  Look for sellers up at 5182 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 range trade, from 5156.50 to 5123.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower, down through the Thursday low briefly before rallying through the night.  At 8:30am Non-farm Payroll data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Non-Manufacturing composite and Factory Orders at 10am, followed by the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down, could not penetrate the Wednesday low but instead rallied all morning.  WE stalled inside of the Wednesday range and balanced out, printing an inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5130.75.  Look for buyers down at 5125 and two way, calm, peaceful trade around 5137 as we head into the weekend.

Hypo 2 squeeze up though overnight high 5150 to target the open gap at 5162 before we balance out.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5162 staging a rally.  Stretch target is 5193.75 then 5200.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked down through the Wednesday low, with selling stalling out just 1-tick ahead of the Tuesday close before buyers stepped in and balanced price out.  At 7am the Bank of England left their benchmark interest rate unchanged.

At 8:30am we will hear the Initial/Continuing jobless claims data, however investors are likely more keen to hear Friday morning’s Non-Farm Payroll data.

Amazon is also set to report earnings after market close.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap up sellers worked into the morning tape, pressing us down to Monday’s close 5123.75 and filling that gap.  Buyers were just 1 tick below and began working price higher.  They did not manage to work us into a neutral print, but did regain much of the intra-day selling by the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5119.50 and continue lower, down to 5110.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5147.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5153.25.  Look for sellers up at 5153.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press the weekly gap fill up to 5162 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, pressing up through Monday’s high and sustaining the gains as we approach cash open.  Buoying the NASDAQ were strong earnings out of Apple Tuesday evening.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out worst than last week.  At 8:15am ADP employment data was much better than expected—likely also supporting higher prices.

Also on the economic docket today we have both ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and most importantly an FOMC Rate Decision at 2pm.

Facebook is set to report earnings after-market-close and packs enough market cap to move the NASDAQ.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The market opened gap down, inside Monday range and sellers were active early on, pressing lower for much of the morning.  Buyers then stepped in, and continued working into the market to completely reverse the selling and make a new daily high.  Prices spiked near end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a quick poke up to 5150.  Sellers show up here and we tread water until the FOMC rate decision.

Hypo 2 short squeeze up to the weekly gap at 5162 before we base out ahead of FOMC.

Hypo 3 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 5119.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5114.50 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC.

Use third reaction post FOMC to determine market direction into the close, and into the end of week.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price poked higher, briefly, overnight before beginning to work lower in a balanced, methodical manner.  As we approach cash open, price appears to be in balance and is trading just below the Monday midpoint.  At 8:30am the Employment Cost Index data was below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have the Case-Shiller Comopsite-20 at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, $20B worth of 52-week T-bills being auctioned by the US Treasury at 11:30am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Apple is set to report earnings after-market-close, and is likely to jostle NASDAQ futures prices.

Don’t forget we have an FOMC rate decision lingering on the horizon, set for release Wednesday afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a rare normal day.  Sellers were active and aggressive for the first hour of trade, driving price lower.  However, their campaign ended just as soon as it began, and the higher time frame stepped aside which led to prices slowly drifting higher.  It is worth noting, however, that there were active and aggressive sellers early on, so aggressive, we printed an abnormally wide initial balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5123.75.  Price continues higher, up through overnight high 5126.75.  Look for sellers to defend their newly claimed territory, ahead of 5130 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press off the open, down through overnight low 5106.75 and continue lower to probe the Monday low 5094.50.  Look for buyers just below at 5092.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5130 to trigger a pole climb up to 5148.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are gap down heading into Monday trade after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower on a balanced session, with most of the downward action coming in the form of a globex gap when trade was opened at 6pm Sunday evening.  A bit more selling came in just after 8:30am, just after the Personal Consumption Expenditure data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, and at 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off both 3- and 6-month T-bills, $34 and and $28 billion dollar’s worth respectively.

There are key earnings out this week from NASDAQ-moving companies including Apple Tuesday after-market-close (AMC), Facebook Wednesday AMC, and Amazon Thursday AMC.

There is and FOMC rate decision Wednesday, and Non-farm Payroll Friday.  This is a busy week.

Last week price worked higher across all major US indices.  We had a down Monday that caught a responsive bid and worked higher by midday.  This set up a trend day Tuesday, and then a big gap up Wednesday.  We spent the rest of the week marking time.  The performance of each major index can be seen below:

On Friday the NASDASQ printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap up and briefly trading to a new high, price worked lower in the morning, 1-ticked the initial balance low just after 10:30am then resolved the week with side-ways action, ramping higher near end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press off the open, trading down through overnight low 5140.25 to test 5131.75.  Buyers show up here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5162.  While doing so they take out overnight high 5160.50.  Look for sellers right around 5162 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers sustain trade below 5130 setting up a test below the Wednesday low 5123.50.  Look for buyers down at 5110.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 5161.25 setting up a test of current swing high 5167.50.  Stretch target is 5193.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ future are heading into Friday trade gap up after an overnight session feauting normal range and volume.  Price chopped around overnight, briefly trading below the Thursday cash low before traversing the entire range early this morning—mostly after 6am.  At 8:30am GDP and Durable Goods orders data were both below expectations.

Also on the economic docket we have the final January reading of U of Michigan Confidence at 10am and the rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price chopped sideways, mostly, after extending all-time highs.  At the end of the day sellers spiked onto the tape.

Heading into Friday my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5146.75.  Buyers defend around these prices and we work higher, up through overnight high 5160.75 and probe above the Thursday high 5163.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap and go, take out overnight high 5160.75 early on and sustain trade above Thursday high 5163.25 setting up a week-ending rally.

Hypo 3 sellers close gap down to 5146.75 then take out overnight low 5139.25 setting up a move to target 5131.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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