The NASDAQ is down overnight after a balanced session featuring normal range and volume. Price was contained below the cash high from yesterday but within the upper quadrant of our Monday range.

The economic calendar is quiet today—perhaps the calm before the storm. On the docket today is Factory Orders at 10am. Earnings season is in full swing with Tesla set to report after the bell and Facebook scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. Also, I was unaware Fed chair Yellen is speaking tomorrow at 10am before the House Financials Services Committee until Bloomberg reported it this morning (careful, if you head over to Bloomberg they have one of the wretched auto start videos).

Yesterday we printed a trend day up. This day type is characterized by each successive TPO making a higher low. The strength of the trend is determined by how far the higher highs stretch. This trend day was gentle, hence my calling it a Stealth Trend Day. It was however a trend day nonetheless and it managed to press price up into new contract highs aka Open Air.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4693.50. From there look for them to continue higher to target the overnight high 4699 and press onward to test above the contract high 4699.50. Look for responsive sellers at 4705.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers struggle to close the overnight gap up to 4693.50 and instead roll over ahead of it. Sellers then work to take out overnight low 4677. Look for responsive buyers around 4672.75 (interesting LVN and yesterday MID) and two trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers accelerate down through the 4672.75 LVN and continue lower to target 4656.75. Look for responsive buyers to emerge around 4653 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 we continue trending higher and exploring these uncharted prices until we find sellers. This starts with sustained trade above 4705.25.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures were active overnight as investors prepared to head into a new month. Price spent most of the evening trading lower before finding a strong responsive bid right where we rallied off the Fed Rate Decision last Wednesday afternoon.   Once the buyers were found price traversed the entire globex range. Heading into cash open price is sitting just below the MID from last Friday. This action occurred on normal volume and printed a slightly elevated range.

On the economic calendar today are two 10am events, the ISM Manufacturing reading and Construction Spending. The big economic event is scheduled for Friday premarket when we hear Nonfarm payroll. Keep in mind we also have Facebook earnings Wednesday.

Last week price churned sideways with a slight upward drift. Wednesday saw a strong rally after the FOMC rate decision. We ended the week probing down into the Fed rally.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4646.50. Sellers push down though this area setting up a move to target overnight low 4625. From here look for sellers to continue probing lower to test below last Wednesday low 4600.50 before finding responsive buyers and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 is less volatile. Sellers struggle, but work the gap fill down to 4646.50 before responsive buyers step in (responsive relative to the open print, initiative relative to Friday close). Buyers make a move to target overnight high 4652.75 before finding responsive sellers at 4656 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers push up through 4656 and sustain trade above it, setting up a move to target 4668.75. Look for responsive sellers at 4672.75.

Levels:

The NASDAQ futures are lower as we head into cash open after a globex session that featured an elevated range on normal volume. Price spent most of the session working lower before coming into balance on the topside of our 3-day micro-composite, which is about the same level as the midpoint of the range yesterday. At 8:30am several data were released including Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Annualized GDP, and Personal Consumption. The initial reaction is flat.

Coming up today, we also have Pending Home Sales at 10am and Natural Gas Storage stats at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day. Price opened gap up and worked lower to kiss the micro-composite volume point of control (MCVPOC) around 4620 before finding responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to the micro-composite). From there we worked higher into the FOMC Rate Decision.

The FOMC rate decision introduced a hard sell into the market which traded right down into the value area low of the well-established market profile structure we were monitoring before again finding responsive buyers. Third reaction yielded the buy and we rallied higher to close the Apple earnings gap from last quarter (7/21/15, 4668.25) and tag the upper ATR bracket at 4675.25.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to make an early push down through overnight low 4642.75 to target 4637.50. From there look for responsive buyers who work up to 4661 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4673.25. Look for the buying campaign to continue, testing above yesterday high 4678.25 and stalling out and finding selling up near 4680.

Hypo 3 sellers advance down through 4637.50 to target 4628.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation takes hold, sellers press down through 4624 and sustain trade below. This sets up a secondary leg to test yesterday session low 4600.50 effectively unwinding the post FOMC rally. This move could continue down to 4580 if speed accelerates.

Levels:

Equity futures traded higher on the globex session with a bulk of the overnight rally fueled by the Apple earnings announcement. Price managed to make a new 3-day high on the news before settling into balance. At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came out lower than expected which introduced some selling to the tape. At 8:30am Advance Goods Trade Balance data was better than expectations. No reaction so far to it. Heading into cash open, price is sitting just above the session high from yesterday.

At 10:30am we have crude/distillate inventories, but the high impact event is scheduled for 2pm when the Federal Open Market Committee with make their rate decision.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up day, the second this week, with price slowly drifting higher. The last three sessions overlapped enough to merit drawing a microcomposite (shown below on volume profile chart).

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the open gap down to 4632.50. From there look for sellers to continue pressuring the tape down to the micro composite volume point of control (MCVPOC) at 4621 before two way trade ensues. From here look for buyers to work higher to target overnight high 4651.75 and the gap Apple left behind last quarter up at 4668.25.

Hypo 2 buyers hold above yesterday’s range and go take out overnight high 4651.75 then close the Apple gap up at 4668.25. Look for responsive sellers up at 4675.25 and two way trade ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 3 sellers accelerate down though 4620 to take out overnight low 4613.75. Look for responsive buyers at 4604.

Levels:

Despite breadth being in the toilet and every sector but Healthcare in the red, short sellers cannot gain any traction in the market place. Instead prices are firmly settled into balance.

The number of stocks green on the session is around 30% and NASDAQ net issues are negative 30 meaning more stocks are down then up. However we now managed to form a weak high which has me completely off the short side until this context resolves.

What is a weak high? It is a market profile occurrence where a price level is tagged twice but not exceeded, thus forming a double TPO at an extreme. Here’s a pic:

So now the likelihood of hypo three is elevated, a push up to the gap we left behind last quarter on Apple earnings.  So despite my short bias lean, I am just sitting and waiting for higher prices before initiating any shorts.

NASDAQ futures printed a low volatility balance session last night that traded inside of the range set yesterday. At 8:30am Durable Goods data came out slightly better on the top line read, and slightly below expectations ex-transportation.

Today is a busy day on the economic calendar which is likely to produce some chop. We have S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 at 9am, the Markit Composite/Service PMI stat at 9:45am, and Consumer Confidence at 10am. However all of these economic events will likely carry less impact on NASDAQ futures than Apple earnings, set for release after market close.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up day and an inside day, meaning, we trade within the range printed last Friday. This suggests balance and waiting.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for more of the same. More chop, more waiting. Look for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work higher to take out overnight high 4619.75 then make a move to probe above value around 4630 before responsive selling is found. Then balanced trade north of 4600.

Hypo 2 a bit more selling pressure, take out overnight low 4601.25 then set our sights on 4580 before responsive buying and two-way trade.

Hypo 3 buyers become initiative, perhaps after 10am, and work higher to target the gap Apple left behind last quarter up at 4668.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 selling accelerates, down through 4580 to test 4565 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Futures on the NASDAQ are coming into the week flat after a globex session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked lower for most of the session but managed to hold Friday’s range before turning up and into balance.

The economic calendar starts the week slow with only New Home Sales at 10am and Dallas Fed at 10:30am. As we progress through the week many more events are scheduled including an FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday afternoon.

Last week price traded sideways with a slight downward drift until opening gap up Thursday and trending higher through the day. After the bell Thursday we saw a surge to the upside fueled by earnings from Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft. Then Friday opened with a big gap up on news that China cut their borrowing rate by 25bps.

Friday printed a neutral day. After setting initial balance two attempts were made to explore lower prices. Each was met with strong responsive buys which eventually led to making a new session high before settling back into the mid to end the day. Price managed to briefly exceed the 7/22 high before turning lower.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to working into the market and target the overnight low 4592.75 because the structure on the low looks weak. Look for responsive buyers at 4580 to set up balanced, two way trade. Otherwise continue lower to test 4564.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press through the slightly short overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4611.75 then target the overnight high 4614. Buyer make a go at taking out Friday’s high 4637.50 but stall out ahead of it and two way trade ensues north of 4600.

Hypo 3 buyers are strong off early on, take out overnight high 4614 and sustain trade above 4620. From there look to take out Fridays high 4637.50 and run the gap fill up to the July 21^st Apple earnings reaction up at 4668.25.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are set to open significantly higher than yesterday’s close. Just after closing bell yesterday we heard earning reports from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All three were better than expectations and futures soared during settlement period. Then we had a surprise 25 bps rate cut by the Chinese Central bank. The overnight range and volume are extreme. Price has managed to press up against the 08/05 session high before settling into balance ahead of the open.

We have two economic events today. The Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up day. The profile that formed was skewed to the upside which suggested the market was not done exploring higher prices as the session expired. You might even make the case for yesterday being a double distribution trend day.

Heading into today, the market will attempt to re-balance itself. This means the higher time frame will be active. Look for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and find responsive buying at 4605. This level comes from the template day, 08/05 and was a key resistance on that day. Look for it to transform into support and buyer to push higher to target overnight high 4628 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go up. Take out overnight high early and sustain trade above 4633 setting up a move to target the open gap up at 4668.25 which we left behind on disappointing Apple earnings July 21^st.

Hypo 3 heavy selling comes in, pushes down through 4600 and targets 4572 before two way trade ensues.

NOTE: I will not be trading today’s session because I am traveling to New York for the second annual iBankCoin Investor Conference. Last I heard there are one or two tickets left. You should come. Worst case, you can have my chair—I sit all day.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are higher overnight after a session featuring normal range and volume. Price managed to hold Wednesday’s low before working up into yesterday’s midpoint which also aligns with a key MCLVN at 4424.50. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing claims data was slightly better than expectations. The initial reaction is buying.

We have a few more economic events scheduled. Today is the busiest day this week with House Price Index at 9am, Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators at 10am, and Natural Gas Storage at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down—the second consecutive day where initiative sellers stepped in. However, much like Tuesday, the market did a good job of finding responsive bids on its probes lower. Sellers did manage however to close the day near session low. Before turning lower we had a failed auction. Price closed the tiny gap left behind Monday at 4454.50 and made new swing high before sharply reversing lower.

Occasionally a mega balance forms on the market profile. Despite my best efforts to split the profile into smaller pieces, it doesn’t make sense. Therefore we have a large distribution covering several days. That is exactly what we have now (see colorful chart below).

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go up. The market likes the 4433 levels and we may spend some time here before working up and testing the VAH at 4446. Then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4399. This sets up a move below overnight low 4398 and puts the market in a slippery spot to break ‘mega balance’ and cause liquidation. If this occurs look to target 4374 before looking for signs of responsive buying.

Hypo 3 strong buying takes us up through VAH 4446 setting up a secondary leg to target 4467.50.

Hypo 4 sellers push down into overnight inventory but stall out north of 4402 before two way trade ensues in and around overnight high 4424.50.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday priced for a gap up. The overnight session featured an elevated range on normal volume. Price managed to hold inside of Tuesday’s range while experiencing big rotations in both directions. At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in way above expectations.

The only other economic events scheduled for today is the Crude/Gas inventory data which may see more attention than usually as the OPEC meeting is also taking place in Vienna today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down day. Before heading lower price spent time consolidating near the high. All the time spent up at those prices meant lots of volume was transacted at the high, and as a result, we formed a blunt, deformed-looking profile. This is often referred to as a weak high and one that we are likely to revisit.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push up through the weak high to target 4471.75. From there look for responsive sellers and two way trade to ensue. Look for buyers to defend north of the key 4444 level during the balance.

Hypo 2 sellers work down into the overnight inventory but struggle to close the gap down to 4424.75. Instead buyers show up and work up back up above overnight high and target 4467.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full gap fill to 4424.75 then a move to target overnight low 4415. Look for sellers to continue lower to test below Monday’s low 4411. Look for responsive buyers around 4408.

Hypo 4 strong gap-and-go, buyers take out 4470 early and sustain trade above setting up a secondary, initiative leg up to 4488.25.

Levels: