NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price made a sharp move lower around 9:13pm after the U.S. military launched nearly 60 Tomahawk missiles against a Syrian air base.  The reaction pushed down to prices not seen since Tuesday of last week before establishing a bid and worked higher, reversing the entire reaction.  At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data was mixed.  The initial reaction is a slight move lower.

Also on the economic docket today we have Wholesale Inventories at 10am, the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  A gap up Thursday morning was quickly sold into but sellers failed to take out the Wednesday low, initially.  Instead price worked range extension (RE) up before reversing the entire daily range and going RE down, briefly trading below the Wednesday low before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work back toward overnight low 5382.75, trading down to 5374.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5422.50.  From here they continue higher, up through overnight high 5429.75, trading up to 5431 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers push down to 5348.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked just above the Tuesday high overnight before settling into balanced trade along the Tuesday high.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications came in below last week.  At 8:15am the ADP Employment change was much better than expected.

STRONG ADP. 263,000 jobs created in March vs. expectations of 185,000. (Though weirdly a significant downward revision to last month)

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) April 5, 2017

Also on the economic docket today we have Service/Non-manufacturing Composite at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and most importantly the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down, but inside the Monday range.  Buyers made an early gap fill and found sellers right along the UNCH line.  Said sellers reversed the morning move but we unable to push range extension down.  Instead we spent the rest of the day working higher, but ultimate inside the Monday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push higher, up through overnight high 5448 and to new highs, tagging the measured move level at 5462.50 before two way trade ensues ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5435.5 and tag 5434.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers ahead of FOMC push up to 5481.75 before we await the Fed.

Hypo 4 stronger sellers press down to 5418.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight with sellers working down into the 40 point intra-day recovery seen Monday.  As we approach the open, however, the Monday low is holding.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data came out better than expected.

Right on the open, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be talking in Frankfurt.  Also on the economic calendar today we have Factory/Durable Goods Orders at 10am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap up and ran higher, briefly making new all-time highs before reversing and working lower.  We closed the open gap left behind on 3/28 before discovering buyers and spending the rest of the day working back to unchanged.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to make a quick move lower, down through overnight low 5406.75, setting up a move to 5383.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling, liquidation speed, takes us down to 5369.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up at 5434.  From here they take out overnight high 5436.75 and continue higher to 5441.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are heading into the first day of the second quarter with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held inside the range of last Friday overnight in a balanced session.

The economic calendar starts out slow this week, picking up steam as the week matures.  For Monday, we have ISM Manufacturing data at 10am, then at 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills, $39b and $33billion respectively.

Last week the major indices worked higher.  But first the week began with a major gap down.  On the open last Monday, the Dow was down nearly -200.  However, after two trend day ups, the stock markets spent the rest of the week drifting, with a slight upward bias.  Here are the performances of each major index last week:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down but still inside the Thursday range.  Sellers made an attempt down through Thursday’s low but stalled ahead of it before buyers came in and worked the market to a new high on the week.  The new high was quickly met with selling, twice, ultimately settling price out just below the Friday midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5438.75.  From here they continue lower, down through overnight low 5432.75.  Look for a move down to Wednesday’ naked VPOC at 5421.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5406.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 5450.75 setting up a run at new highs.  Look for sellers up at the Fibonacci zone starting at 5462.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked down through the Thursday night low, briefly, tagging the Wednesday VPOC, before pushing back to unchanged.  At 8:30am Personal Spending data came in below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have the Fed’s Neel ‘Crazy Eyes’ Kashkari answering questions at 10am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price slowly pushed higher but failed to take out the swing high, which was made during extended hours late Wednesday night.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5441 and make a run for the ETH high up at 5451 to probe open air into month-end.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5421 and tag 5408 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, making new all-time highs and nullifying the failed auction that occurred last week Tuesday.  Price then settled back down into the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range.  At 8:30am GDP came out better than expected (USA GDP (QoQ) for Q4 2.10% vs 2.00% Est; Prior 1.90%) and Initial/Continuing jobless claims were worse than expected.

There are no other major economic events today.  There are several low-level Fed members speaking today, but investors aren’t likely to pay them much attention.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened with a slight gap up and sellers could not close it.  Instead we rallied to a new weekly high, then balanced through the afternoon before a strong afternoon ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5429 and tag 5421.25 before buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and press up through overnight high 5451 and trade up to new all-time highs.  Open air.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers push us down to 5405.50, closing the Tuesday gap, before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price bounced around inside the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range in an overall balanced manner.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate auction at 11:30am, then a 7-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened flat, attempted lower but buyers kept price in the upper quad of the Monday trend day.  From there we began to rally, up through the sell-off from last Tuesday before some late-afternoon sellers stepped in.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5405.50.  Look for buyers down near 5390 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5418.75 and probe above the Tuesday high 5424.75 setting up a run to all-time high 5441.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5374.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up through the Monday high briefly before reversing the gains.  Price is holding in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range as we head into the open.  At 8:30am Advance Goods Trades balance data was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, 52- and 4-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, a 5-year Note auction at 1pm, and Yellen speaking at 12:50pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down, to a new low for the month of March and took out overnight low by a few ticks before reversing and trading higher for much of the day, closing the overnight gap and essentially finishing flat.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight high 5393 setting up a move to target the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down to 5348.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5328.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price opened gap down Sunday evening and continued lower, pressing into levels unseen since late-February, effectively erasing all of March’s gains before bidders stepped in and worked priced back into the low-end of last week’s range.

The economic calendar is light all week.  Today the U.S. Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills at 11:30am, $39b and $33b respectively.  They are also auctioning off some 2-year Notes at 1pm, $26 billion dollars worth of tier one American debt.

There is some Fed speak Evans is talking before and after lunch and Kaplan in the evening, but investors aren’t likely to pay much attention to them.  Yellen speaks Tuesday mid-day and may garner the interest of active market participants.

Last week we went lower, primarily on Tuesday.  Last Tuesday was a big trend down across the board.  While most other major indices bear flagged for the rest of the week, the Dow and S&P continued to trickle lower.  Below is the performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day.  A gap higher into the day was bought initially, pressing about halfway into the Tuesday trend down seller conviction day.  Buyers pressed range extension up, albeit briefly, before we traversed the entire daily range and worked lower, effectively closing the Friday gap before a 3:30pm ramp put us back into the middle of the Friday range.  Neutral action.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory, working up through overnight high 5360.25.  Buyers stall out here, perhaps lurching a bit higher to 5365.50 but failing to close the weekend gap.  Instead we roll over and churn along last week’s lows, around the 5350 area.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, taking out overnight low 5318 and targeting the 5300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press strongly, up through overnight high 5360.25 and up to the weekend gap at 5379.25.  They sustain trade above 5377 setting up a move to target the 5400 century mark (perhaps later this week).

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up through the Wednesday high, briefly, before settling into balanced trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have New Home Sales at 10am, a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm, and Fed’s [crazy eyes] Kashkari speaking at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening flat and pushing higher, sellers pushed down through the Tuesday low.  Just below it a strong responsive bid surfaced and we spent the rest of the day working higher, eventually closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5378.50 then find buyers just above at 5380 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5361.75 setting up a move to target 5325 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5380 setting up a pole climb to the 5400 century mark.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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