Just wanted to drop a quick note on this busy Friday.

Since we are in the business of publicly disclosing premium Exodus signals, I will have you know today is day 9 of an oversold ‘buy’ alert.  The alert occurred on Friday, March 23rd at end-of-day.

Here is the performance of each major index since then

The phrase, “lies, damned lies, and statistics” is in play here.  An Exodus oversold signal is not confirmed until after-market-close which means you can not take action until the following trading day, which in this case was Monday, the 26th.

We had a big gap up into Monday.  I had about as good an entry as I could hope for that Monday, opting to see the morning action and step in after lunch, and just before an explosive afternoon rally.  The position was validated by the market.

That being said, my $TNA position, which is an ETF representing 3x the returns of the Russell 2000, is flat.

Because I always trade every single Exodus hybrid oversold signal exactly how the system is designed, I have to hold the trade until close-of-business next Monday.  I will be pressing this long into the weekend.

Bearish facts:  Breadth is low, currently only about 26% of stocks are up according to Exodus.  NASDAQ Transports are at range low, as are Semiconductors, NASDAQ net issues are also low, -75 (that is out of 100, so confirming the low Exodus breadth).  We are RE down on /nq_f.  Hybrid Chg % which shows an intermediate term bias, flipped bearish on Monday, April 2.

Bullish facts: NYSE TICK is trending higher into afternoon.  There is a ledge formation on nq_f that we are likely to spill over:

Utter nonsense that is affecting the market that we have no factual proof is bullish or bearish: TRADE WARS, Jerome Powell talking at 1:30pm.

That is all I have.  I have been working the long side since about 11:30am after the primary hypo nailed the short-of-the-day.

The key to any success in a process driven approach to trading, business, or life, is sticking to the plan.  The plan is to remain bullish until end-of-Monday, therefore I am.

Easy-peasy

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price dove lower Thursday evening before finding balance long the mid-point of Wednesday’s trend up.  At 8:30am non-farm payroll data was well below expectations.  Some chop came through, it appears third reaction was up, but little has changed since before the numbers.

There is more focus on trade wars with China.

Also on the economic docket today we have Fed chair Jerome Powell giving a speech on economic conditions at 1:30pm and Consumer credit data comes out at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap up.  Sellers pushed into the overnight inventory and were at first not able to completely close the overnight gap.  Buyers had a shot to squeeze higher and they didn’t.  This was the tell, in hindsight.  The rest of the day was choppy and balanced.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 6559.  Seller reject a move back into the Thursday range here around 6659 and we go lower, down through overnight low 6485.25.  Look for buyers down at 6443 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers drive lower off the open, down through overnight low 6485.25.  Look for buyers down at 6443 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 6602.50 setting up a move up through overnight high 6611.25.  Look for sellers up at 6636.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher during the evening, eventually coming into balance along last Thursday’s session high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering along overnight high and outside of the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed and trade balance came out worse than expected.

There are no other material economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began gap down and after a brief two-way auction could not take out the weekly lows strong buyers stepped in and closed the overnight gap.  Then a strong secondary wave of initiative buying came in after New York lunch and rallied the market into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher.  Trapped shorts are squeezed higher, up through overnight high 6654.50.  We trade up to 6700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 6722.50 before two way trade.

Hypo 3 even stronger buyers trade up to 6750 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers work into the overnight inventory and regain the Wednesday range 6591.75.  They continue lower, down through overnight low 6581.  Look for buyers down at 6573.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday trading along the Tuesday low after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, quickly, pressing below the Tuesday low and further into the February low before coming into balance.  At 8:15am ADP employment data came out better than expected but yielded little response.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM manufacturing/services at 10am and crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began gap up, sellers quickly closed the gap then we traversed the entire daily range, pressing up RE up.  Then we went back to the mid and chopped along before rallying back to the daily high near end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower.  Look for sellers to reject a move back into the Tuesday range 6351.25 and take out overnight low 6306.75 setting up a liquidation down to 6231.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 6400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6400 setting up a full gap fill up to 6469 then up through overnight high 6475.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced until about 8am EST when the market began a steady campaign higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering along an area that served as support late last week before ultimately breaking on Monday.

On the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The week began gap down and buyers quickly spiked higher on the open, stalling one-tick below the Friday gap 6570.50, but in the parlance of 40 point rotations, close enough to consider it a gap fill.  Then sellers stepped in hard, and we were trend down all morning.  The secondary rotation lower after New York lunch made new lows, probing down into prices unseen since February 9th when we made a swing low.  Responsive bidders were found ahead of the lows and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade a half gap down to 6429.  Here we see buyers step in and work up through overnight high 6464.75 setting up a move to target 6500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 6394.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 6500 setting up a move to target 6522.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday down about -50 after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range.  Price worked lower overnight, slowly and methodically.

On the economic agenda today we have construction spending at 10am, ISM manufacturing/employment at 10am, and both 3- and 6-month T-bills being auctioned at 11:30am.

Last week started gap up.  Gap was filled then a strong bid drove us higher for rest of Monday.  Tuesday was gap up then trend day down.  Wednesday consolidated on low-end of Tuesday trend.  Thursday rallied, then faded at end of day.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6570.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6588.50.  Look for sellers around 6600 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take us up to 6638.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 6527.25 and tag 6479.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight with trade contained inside the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am PCE core data was in-line with expectations while Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was below expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have U of Michigan’s final read of March sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began gap down, and after an early battle pushed price below the Tuesday low responsive buyers stepped in and closed the gap.  Then we attempted lower again, and again we found responsive buyers.  This time we traversed the entire range pushing us neutral.  We then settled back to the daily midpoint for the rest of the session.

Neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6478.50.  Look for buyers ahead of 6470 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 6540.50 setting up a move to target 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 6469 setting up a retest of the lows 6421.  Look for buyers ahead of 6400 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring off-the-charts extreme volume and extreme range.  Price was balanced for most of the session, chopping along the lower-quadrant of Tuesday range before slipping lower rapidly around 8:55am, back to the Tuesday low.  At 8:30am advance good trades balance data was worse than expected and GDP was better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, 2-year note auctions at 11:30am, and 7-year note auctions at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with about a 40 point gap up.  After a brief open auction price worked lower and closed the gap.  A strong responsive bid entered at that point and it appeared the market was in balance.  However, strong selling came in during the afternoon, with sellers becoming initiative, pressing us into a trend down.  We closed near session lows, and below last Friday’s low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 6650 closing the overnight gap.  Then sellers return us down through overnight low 6482.50 setting up a move to target 6439.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trade us down through overnigtht low 6482.50, pressing down to 6439.25 then continuing lower, down to 6414.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6650 setting up a move to take out overnight high 6582.25.  Look for sellers to defend 6600 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher late Monday afternoon and continued higher into the evening before responsive sellers rejected a move back into the 3/21 range, stepping in just above last Wednesday’s low 6842.25.

The economic calendar is light today—we have consumer confidence at 10am, 4- and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a 100 point gap up, in-range.  A brief open auction gave way to buyers who were able to barely poke above the overnight high before a strong wave of selling rolled in.  Sellers nearly filled the overnight gap but did not.  Instead strong responsive buyers stepped in, forming a sharp excess low.  A brief battle at the daily midpoint saw buyers more agressive than sellers.  Ultimately the buyers became initiative, pushing us neutral, then pressing the rally for the rest of the session, closing the day at the highs earning the neutral extreme designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6774.75.  Selling continues just through overnight low 6770.50 before buyers step in and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 6849.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 6883.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down into the Monday afternoon rally, down to 6666 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures opened the week up about 100 points higher after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Around 8pm Sunday responsive buyers stepped in ahead of the lows from last Friday.  Price steadily campaigned higher throughout the globex session but remained inside of last Friday’s range.

At 11:30am the US Treasury auctioned off 3- and 6-month T-bills.  There is an upcoming 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Last week all major indices were lower.  Gap down into the week, then a trend down Monday.  Tuesday and Wednesday see price bouncing around, with a slight upward bias, with action contained inside the Monday range.  Gap down into Thursday then a two-day trend down all the way into the weekend.  The last performance of each major index is shown below:

The Monday open was an open auction in-range.  Buyers were able to briefly test above overnight high 6679.25 before responsive sellers stepped in.  Sellers sustained trade below the open-auction and then became initiative, making the hardest rotation of the day, 27.75 points unidirectional.  As we head into New York lunch price is currently working back towards the daily mipoint.

My primary expectation is for sellers to defend the daily mid 6616.25 and continue lower.  Sellers sustain trade below the 6600 century mark setting up a move to target 6549 before two-way trade enuses.

Hypo 2 buyers defend 6600 and we chop around the midpoint for the rest of the day, a volatile game of ping-poing between 6600 and about 6644.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up through 6644 and make new highs on the session up through to 6687.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

Comments »