NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price dove lower Thursday evening before finding balance long the mid-point of Wednesday’s trend up. At 8:30am non-farm payroll data was well below expectations. Some chop came through, it appears third reaction was up, but little has changed since before the numbers.
There is more focus on trade wars with China.
Also on the economic docket today we have Fed chair Jerome Powell giving a speech on economic conditions at 1:30pm and Consumer credit data comes out at 3pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began gap up. Sellers pushed into the overnight inventory and were at first not able to completely close the overnight gap. Buyers had a shot to squeeze higher and they didn’t. This was the tell, in hindsight. The rest of the day was choppy and balanced.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 6559. Seller reject a move back into the Thursday range here around 6659 and we go lower, down through overnight low 6485.25. Look for buyers down at 6443 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers drive lower off the open, down through overnight low 6485.25. Look for buyers down at 6443 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 6602.50 setting up a move up through overnight high 6611.25. Look for sellers up at 6636.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
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