NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was in balance overnight, chopping along the Friday midpoint for much of the Globex session before making a downward rotation around 4am.  Since then price has bounced back up to the low-end of that overnight balance.

There are no economic events today.  Federal workers have today off in celebration of Christopher Columbus.

Last week markets were gap up into Monday then essentially marked time through end of Wednesday, with the days starting strong and ending weak.  Then Thursday saw a gap down and away from that three day range then a drive lower.  The drive lower continued through Friday until a responsive bid stepped in late Friday afternoon.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  It was an aggressive normal variation down but I am not labeling it a trend day or even a double distribution trend day.  However it was more dynamic then our usual normal variation down.  But the VPOC settled just below the daily midpoint.  The day began flat and with a wide open auction that eventually gave way to sellers who worked down through the Thursday low then accelerated to the downside.  Price below through the 7400 century mark by lunchtime and continued lower through the early afternoon.  Late into the afternoon, after probing into price levels untouched since late August, a responsive bid stepped in and ramped price back to the daily midpoint by end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7387 to set up a move to test below Friday’s low 7347.  Look for buyers down at 7321.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7436.25.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 7453.25.  Look for sellers up at 7475.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers drive down through 7321.25 and tag the 7300 century mark.  We chop here for a bit then continue lower, down to 7251.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price balanced overnight, chopping along the lower quadrant of Thursday’s trend down.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant still and yet to breach the Thursday low.  At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data came out mixed, with change in non-farm134k vs 185k payrolls coming in well below expectations [134k vs 185k est].

Also on the economic calendar today we have consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  Price opened just below weekly low and drove down, uncontested, until discovering a responsive bid at the 09/13 open gap.  Price managed to ramp a bit into the closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7513.  Then sellers step in and work price down through overnight low 7469.75.  Look for buyers down at 7450 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, sustain trade below 7450 setting up a move to target 7408.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers close overnight gap 7513 then work up through overnight high 7540 setting up a move to target 7556 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down into prices unseen since last Wednesday.  As we approach cash open prices are hovering below the weekly low.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims came out better than expected.

(good news, neutral reaction, bearish)

Also on the economic calendar today we have factory/durable goods orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up inside range.  Buyers made a small push off the open but were unable to test beyond the Tuesday high.  They also stalled out before the market could go range extension up.  Then responsive sellers stepped in.  The pushed RE down then we came into balance. Then later in the session they closed the overnight gap and we ended the day near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7602.25 setting up a move to close the gap down at 7590.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade us down to 7573.25 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch target is 7573.25.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 7665.50 then continue higher, up through overnight high 7667.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading near last Friday’s low before catching a bid and coming into balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering just barely inside of Monday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.  Then at 12pm Jerome Powell is talking in Boston at the NABE conference.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up-and-out of the prior week’s range.  Price drove higher off the open, briefly making a new record high before the auction stalled out.  Buyers were unable to press the market range extension up despite an hour-or-so spent hovering just below the high.  Instead responsive sellers stepped in and pushed.  They continued pushing until we went RE down, then closed the overnight gap, then continued lower, finally discovering responsive buyers just ahead of Friday’s naked volume point of control and experiencing a small ramp into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject us out of the Monday range, driving lower off the open to take out overnight low 7630.25.  This sets up a move down to 7613.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade us down to the open gap at 7590.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7674 then continue higher, up through overnight high 7678.25.  Look for sellers up at 7676.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up near the record high print before settling into balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering well above last week’s high and about 25 point away from record highs.

The move overnight is being attributed (at least partially) to NAFTA coming to a new agreement amid the ongoing trade wars.

On the economic agenda today we have ISM manufacturing/employment at 10am followed by a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week started off with selling across all major indices.  While the NASDAQ found a floor by late Monday and rallied through the rest of the week, the other indices marked time and worked sideways.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and two way auction.  Buyers eventually became initiative and closed the overnight gap and took out overnight high by a few ticks before we traded back to the daily mean.  There was a small ramp into the closing bell.  Ultimately it was an inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 7670.50 then continue lower to close the gap down to 7663.75.  Look for buyers here and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 2 gap and go higher, trade up through overnight high 7719.75 and probe the globex high 7726.  Open air.  Look for sellers up at the weekly ATR band high 7754.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 7644 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on normal range.  Price was balanced overnight, churning higher and holding inside of the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am a large data dump occurred which included advance goods trades balance, GDP (QoQ, Q2), durable goods orders, and initial/continuing jobless claims.

Also on the economic agenda today we have pending home sales at 10am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.  Fed chairman Jerome Powell will also be giving a brief talk at a Senate event happening at 4:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began by continuing to explore higher, which has been the trend since Monday morning.  Price methodaically closed a gap left behind on 9/4, then built a base here heading into the FOMC rate decision.  The first reaction after the 25bp hike was a spike higher which stopped one tick shy of the 08/31 gap at 7668.25.  Then second and third reaction were down which triggered a hard sale for the rest of the day, ultimately pressing us range extension down and closing near session low.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7590.50.  From here we continue lower, down though overnight low 7584 setting up a move to target 7566 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 7600 setting up a move up through overnight high 7618.25.  Look for sellers up at 7640 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7671.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, pressing up into the 09/04 (the first full trading day of September) range before settling into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering up above yesterday’s high.

On the economic docket this morning we have a few medium impact events—new home sales at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am.  The major event happens at 2pm when the FOMC releases their rate decision.  There is currently a 95% probability of a 25 basis point lift in interest rates, and a 5% probability of a 50bp lift.  This is a live meeting and there is a Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference scheduled after the announcement, at 2:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap down and choppy open.  Sellers made a move down-and-away from the initial balance, putting us range extension down.  They were met by responsive buyers down near the Friday close, and we spent the rest of the session auctioning higher.  After initially pusing range extension up and neutral, a rotation back to the mean occurred but then buyers stepped back and and worked back up near session high by the close.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap and go higher.  Buyers defend ahead of the Tuesday high 7596.75 setting up a move to take out overnight high 7629.  This sets up a move to close the gap up at 7640 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate hike to drive direction into the close.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers drive off the open, take out overnight high 7629, close the gap 7640 and tag the weekly ATR band at 7650.50 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate hike to drive direction into the close.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7595.50.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 7588.  Look for buyers down at 7566 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate hike to drive direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, probing beyond the high print from Monday in a slow, methodical fashion.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near last Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic agenda today we have consumer confidence at 10am, a 2-year floating rate note and 4-week t-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  Ahead of last week’s lows, a strong responsive bid stepped in resulting in the formation of an excess low.  The open gap from 09/19 was resolved and then converted into support.  By late morning buyers were driving higher from this support to close the overnight gap from last Friday.  The market again paused here before buyers became initiative (relative to last week’s close) and drove price higher into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 7603.25, trading up to 7614 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7624 setting up a move to target the open gap at 7640 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7585.75. Sellers continue lower, down though overnight low 7573.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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*Most active traders have moved on to trading the December /NQ_F futures contract, however the price levels in this report are for the September contract.  I will trade the September contract into end-of-week.

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Friday in September gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked higher, probing beyond the Thursday high for several hours.  As we approach cash open price is hovering along the Thursday high.  At 8:30am advance retail sales data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have industrial production at 9:15am then both business inventories and the primary reading of sentiment from the University of Michigan at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher.  Price peaked out by late morning and came into balance for a bit before pushing to a new daily high around lunchtime.  We then spent the rest of the session chopping along the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7567.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7559.50.  Look for buyers down at 7556.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 7598.75 setting up a move to target 7637 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 7623.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight after spending a good portion of the evening globex session in balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Wednesday high and just below the weekly high.  At 8:30am consumer price index data came out worse than expected and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm and a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  Sellers were unable to drive beyond the Tuesday low, instead encountering a strong responsive bid and printing a sharp bounce.  We then rotated to the 61.8% retracement of the bounce before a secondary buy ramp carried us into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 7550 setting up a move to target 7600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7485.75 we then continue lower, down through overnight low 7470 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers trade up beyond the weekly high 7541 but cannot trade up beyond 7550 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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