NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, churning higher and holding inside of the Wednesday range. At 8:30am a large data dump occurred which included advance goods trades balance, GDP (QoQ, Q2), durable goods orders, and initial/continuing jobless claims.
Also on the economic agenda today we have pending home sales at 10am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm. Fed chairman Jerome Powell will also be giving a brief talk at a Senate event happening at 4:30pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began by continuing to explore higher, which has been the trend since Monday morning. Price methodaically closed a gap left behind on 9/4, then built a base here heading into the FOMC rate decision. The first reaction after the 25bp hike was a spike higher which stopped one tick shy of the 08/31 gap at 7668.25. Then second and third reaction were down which triggered a hard sale for the rest of the day, ultimately pressing us range extension down and closing near session low.
Neutral extreme.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7590.50. From here we continue lower, down though overnight low 7584 setting up a move to target 7566 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 7600 setting up a move up through overnight high 7618.25. Look for sellers up at 7640 and two way trade to ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7671.75 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
I like how Hypo2 is the exact opposite of Hypo1.
Thanks for providing the analysis, much appreciated.
I traded the wrong side of yesterday’s open (I was working the primary) but didn’t get beat up too badly.
playing the long side this AM
thanks for stopping by,
trade’em well out there 0_o