NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight via three sequential rotations down.  The first came right around settlement when Amazon and Google parent Alphabet reported solid earnings but guided lower.  The second rotation lower came just before midnight, then a third hard move took hold around 4am.  All together the action took prices to levels unseen since May 4th, a conviction trend day up.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering right along the weekly low (set late Wednesday around 6800).  At 8:30am GDP data came out stronger than expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have University of Michigan’s final reading of October sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up, inside range of the prior day trend down.  Buyers rejected an attempt lower during the opening auction and we instead drifted just up beyond the Wenesday VPOC and chopped and balanced along it. Then, late in the session we ramped higher before seeing a sharp spike lower during settlement to press prices back near where they opened in the morning.  Overall it was an inside day and a normal variation up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reclaim the weekly low and sustain trade above 6800 setting up a move to target 6881.  We chop here for a bit before continuing higher to take out overnight high 6934.25.  Look for sellers up at 6948.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers reject us down and away from 6800 setting up a move through overnight low 6734.25.  Look for buyers down at 6700 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 6678 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gap, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the night session, trading along the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s trend before spiking higher around 3:30am.  The up move found responsive sellers right at Wednesday’s midpoint and since then we have paired back half the move.  At 8:30am advance goods trade balance data came out below expectations, durable goods orders came out above expectations, and initial/continuing jobless claims were better than expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have pending home sales at 10am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began with a small gap down.  Sellers stepped in right on the open, leaving the open gap behind.  A responsive bid was found late in the morning and we rotated right up to the daily midpoint before sellers became initiative and began to trend the market lower.  The selling continued clean through to end-of-session, pressing us down through the prior swing low and into price levels unseen since early May.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6838.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6816.75 and then down through the Wednesday cash low 6785.75 setting up a move to target 6771.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers drive off the open, rejecting trade down below 6890 and working up through overnight high 6966.50 setting up a move to target 7000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 6700 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down (as of 8:30am New York) after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price briefly probed higher overnight, taking out the Tuesday cash high by a few points before rapidly descending to the Tuesday midpoint.  Then, around 6:30am a rapid rotation upward undid most of the overnight selling.  As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

We have a busy economic docket today, all medium impact events.  At 9:45am we have Markit service/manufacturing/composite PMI.  At 10am new home sales, 10:30am crude oil inventories, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, a 5-year note auction at 1pm, and the Fed’s beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a pro-gap down and early drive lower.  Responsive buyers stepped in ahead of the current swing low (from 10/11) and starting campaigning higher.  Sellers initially rejected a move back into the Friday/Monday lows around 7100.  We balanced out just below them before ramping up through them in the afternoon, eventually closing the entire pro-gap by late in the day and closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7141.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7175.  Look for sellers up at 7183.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press up to the 7200 century mark then sustain trade above it, setting up a move to target 7264.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through 7100 setting up a move down through overnight low 7052.25.  Look for buyers down at 7009.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, uni-directionally working down into the 10/11 range, which is the day that we recently made a swing low.  As we approach cash open, prices are hovering near the midpoint of the 10/11 range.

On the economic calendar today we have a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved in the first 30 minutes of trade.  Sellers were unable to take out the Friday low, instead discovering a responsive bid (responsive relative to Monday open, initiative relative to Friday close) which came in and worked higher, eventually taking us range extension up but ultimately settling into a choppy balance, with the rest of the day spent trading above the midpoint.  It was an inside day.

Heading into today we are way out of balance, and I expect the open to be violent.  Look for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and work up towards 7100.  Then look for sellers to reject a move back into the Monday low 7100.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers regain Monday low 7100.50 and continue working higher to close the gap up to 7154.75 setting up a move through overnight high 7160.25.  Look for sellers up at 7184 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower, down to 7000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation, look for buyers down at 6933.50.   Stretch targets to the downside are 6921.25, 6906, 6900, then 6854.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower Sunday evening, briefly trading below last week’s cash low [established Monday] before discovering a strong responsive bid.  The rest of the globex session was spent rotating higher, uni-directionally.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week began with a choppy Monday, a normal day which is rare.  Then Tuesday say a gap up and trend higher.  Wednesday held the gains in choppy trade but then most gains were given back Thursday.  Friday attempted to rally but was rejected and we closed above, but near the week’s low.

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap up and and drive higher.  The drive stalled before the first hour [initial balance] and responsive sellers stepped in.  They erased the morning drive then quickly closed the overnight gap.  The rest of the day was spent chopping along the lows.  The market briefly took out Thursday’s low during the chop but could not sustain trade below it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7107.75.  Buyers step in here and two way trade ensues, eventually working back up through overnight high 7176.75 by end-of-day.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustain trade above 7188.25 setting up a move to target 7200.  Stretch target is 7263.50.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close overnight gap 7107.75, then take out last Monday’s gap 7076.25 on their way to taking out overnight low 7057.  This sets up a move to target the 7000 century mark.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, bouncing around below the midpoint of Thursday’s trade.  As we approach cash open price is hovering along the midpoint of Thursday.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  Initially, the price level high lighted in hypo 3 of the morning report [7207] was defended by buyers, but a second move into it saw sellers overtaking the level which triggered a liquidation.  Price continued rotate lower until tagging the 7100 century mark where two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7196.  Look for sellers up at 7200 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7139.25 setting up a move to take out overnight low 7135.50.  Look for sellers to accelerate the action down, working to fill the open gap at 7076.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7200 setting up a move to target 7263 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and extreme volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in a balanced session.  As we approach cash open prices are hovering along Wednesday’s midpoint.  At 8:30am Philly Fed and Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out all better-than-expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower, with sellers pushing nearly to the Tuesday midpoint during the first hour of trade. Then, much like Tuesday, the market briefly went range extension down just after 10:30am before discovering a responsive bid.  The rest of the session was spent working back up through the daily mid then chopping along it, eventually ramping higher near end-of-day but not pushing neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7313.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7317.50.  Look for sellers up at 7348.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7375.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading up down through overnight low 7262.25.  Look for buyers down at 7207 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, taking out the Tuesday high before rotating down.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside the upper quadrant of Tueday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have housing starts/building permits at 8:30am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher as buyer rejected an early attempt to trade back into Monday’s range.  Then, late into the first hour of trade sellers made a second attempt into Monday range which very briefly pressed the market range extension down.  However, this second rejection by the buyers triggered a trend up which continued all the way into closing bell.  The action was accented by a squeeze higher during settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7357.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7368.50.  Look for sellers up at 7374.25 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7375 setting up a move to target 7400 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, sustain trade below 7300, setting up a move to target 7271.75 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight balancing out around the Monday midpoint for several hours before overnight buyers became initiative and worked up near the Monday high.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near the Monday high but all overnight trade has been contained within the Monday cash range thus far.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing productions at 9:15am, NAHB housing market index at 10am, a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down and drive lower.  The first hour of trade was dynamic and for most of the day we traded inside of it, making it look like we may end up with a normal print.  But then, late in the session price pushed range extension up by a few ticks.  Late in the session the intra-day gains were erased and we closed near session low.  The entire daily range was contained inside of last Friday’s range. Therefore we printed a normal variation up, inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, close the Friday gap up at 7173.25 then continue higher, trading up to 7200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 7100.  We chop here before rallying back up through overnight high 7153 and continuing higher to close the Friday gap 7173.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 7076.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7063.50.  Look for buyers down at 6994.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down but catching a responsive bid ahead of the lower quadrant of Monday’s cash range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering at Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bills up for auction at 11:30am and 4- and 52-week bills at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down and two-way auction on the open.  Buyers drove shortly after, closing the overnight gap but stalling right at it before the first hour of trade was in [initial balance].  Then, after looking like the market was catching a bid at the daily mid, sellers instead stepped in and initiated a fresh leg lower pressing up range extension down and trading deep into the August second conviction buy day.  By early afternoon the market had made a low with a quality look.  We then spent the rest of the day rallying higher, eventually closing up above the daily midpoint.

Normal variation down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7392.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7398.50.  Look for some chop at the 7400 century mark before buyers continue higher to 7439.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close overnight gap 7392.50, take out overnight high 7398.50 then stall out at 7400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 7337 and begin working back down to Monday low 7286.50.  They test below the Monday low setting up a move to target 7251.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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