iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,748 Blog Posts

NASDAQ buyers set to take victory lap after resilient week, here is Friday plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up +50 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price continued lower Thursday evening after an afternoon bout of selling continued into Globex. Said selling saw price briefly trade below the Wednesday low before responsive buyers stepped in. Said buyers reversed the evening selling and more, reclaiming Thursday’s range. At 8:30am durable goods orders came out weaker than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering below Thursday’s midpoint.

Intel reported stronger than expected earnings after the bell Thursday but investors received the guidance poorly. Shares of the chip maker are about -5% lower in pre market trade.

Also on the economic calendar today we have U. of Michigan’s final April reading of sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap up and drive higher, with price tagging the NVPOC at 8743.25 before pausing a bit then continuing higher. The auction stalled out around Monday’s midpoint. Then sellers stepped in and reversed the entire morning move. After a few chops along the bottom side of the daily midpoint, sellers drove lower into the close, closing near session low.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 8684 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8796.75 and potentially tag the naked VPOC at 8820 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8600.50. From here they continue lower, down through overnight low 8498.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ catches a bid on bleak jobs data, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the top side of Wednesday’s midpoint for the most part until the 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data. That data came out in-line with expectations (albeit really troubling). Since then NASDAQ futures have risen about 30 handles. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near yesterday’s high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Markit composit/manufacturing/services PMI data at 9:45am, new home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Be aware we also have our first major earnings event of this quarter after the bell, with Intel set to report.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up and after a brief two way auctions buyers stepped in and began a steady campaign higher, eventually closing the 04/20 gap left behind early Tuesday. Some sellers pressed us back down near the midpoint at end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 8743.5. Look for sellers up at 8797.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up through 8800 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to close the open gap at 8892.50.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8635.50. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 8580.50. Look for buyers down at 8532.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ up a cool +140, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the bottom-side of Tuesday’s midpoint until about 2am when buyers stepped in and initiated higher prices. As we approach cash open, price is hovering about 60 point above the Tuesday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am. Investors are likely to be keen on this data after seeing front month oil futures briefly trade negative on Monday.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a pro gap down below the Friday and Monday range. Sellers drove lower off the open, trading down to the lower weekly ATR band where price paused for a moment before making a more significant leg lower. This second leg saw price trading down near the open gap left behind on 04/13 but not quite filling it. Instead responsive buyers defended a conviction buy zone they created from 04/13 at 11:21 am until 04/14 at 3:50pm. This led to a strong spike, all the way back up to the daily midpoint. we ended the day chopping along the lower quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 8666 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers close the Monday gap up at 8690.75. Look for sellers up at 8798.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8431.25. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 8400. Look for buyers just below at 8388 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ drifts back down into last Wednesday’s range // here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight via a push lower around 10pm, a pull back up near Monday’s low that sellers rejected then a second push to new Globex lows around 6am. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Wednesday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down in range. Buyers resolved the overnight gap after an open two way auction and continued higher, going range extension up and holding highs until about 1:30pm. Price never took out last Friday’s high though. A first test back to the daily midpoint was supported by buyers but late in the afternoon selling accelerated and we pushed neutral, eventually closing on low of day.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8690.75. Buyers continue higher, tagging the VPOC at 8742.75 on their way up though overnight high 8763. Look for sellers up at 8797.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 8567.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8532.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ down a calm -80 into 04/20 here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first week of June options being front month down -90 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along last Friday’s midpoint until about 6am New York when sellers poked price a bit lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Friday’s lows but has not yet exceeded them.

On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a steady campaign higher with buyers maintaining control of the auction all week across all major indices except the Russell. The Russell was bearish divergent all week. The last week performance of all four major indices is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up, with price trading a levels untouched since March 5th. The high print actually took place during Globex trade late Thursday evening. It is statistically uncommon for swing high/lows to print during non-cash hours. After a brief two-way auction at the open, much of Friday was spent working lower, eventually closing the overnight gap and pushing range extension down. Eventually we tagged the Thursday midpoint which discovered a strong responsive bid. We ramped back up beyond the midpoint into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8808.25. From there we continue higher, up through overnight high 8837.25 setting up a move to 8883.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo two sellers actively defend 8742.25 early on setting up a move down through overnight low 8696.25. Look for buyers just below overnight low and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trad down to 8633.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Chopping wood

Greetings lads. Not much to report on this fine Sunday. All routines remain in place. The key to a routine is understanding its purpose. If someone ever asked me why I spend two-to-four hours every Sunday thumbing through tons of raw stock market data and parsing it into relevant information, I have an answer more meaningful than, “because that is how I’ve always done it.” Resting on your laurels is a dangerous game. Ask me how I know.

I am not going to write out all the reasons why I do lots of research every Sunday, nor will I elaborate on the why I update the public blog with a NASDAQ trading plan most every trading day. However, it is the proverbial chopping of the wood and carrying of the water. These routines took me to a place of consistent profitability as a trader and investor, and I cannot stop doing them now that I’ve achieved that goal.

That said, I am always on the look-out for ways to simplify my approach or add a new tool (algo, model, screen, etc).

Last week was huge for me. I made back all draw down my long term accounts suffered during the Valentine’s Day COVID-19 massacre while capturing hundreds of handles in the NASDAQ 100 futures. Technically, I could not work again until August and have enough money to keep the lights on, the hooch flowing, pick up some new threads and all the gourmet groceries I can eat here at Mothership.

But many a wise gambler have encouraged me to press my edge when it goes well, therefore I shall continue to show up and trade these opening bells. Don’t expect me to hang around much later than noon though. The warmth is arriving in the murder mitten and I have food to grow. Likely to be much to the chagrin of my neighbors, I am debating tilling up the entire front yard (40′ x 70′) and installing a food garden. These bread lines at Costco have fucked with my psyche a bit, and I never want to be caught flat footed again, in terms of food. I remodeled the base cement, expanding the cellar and adding a nursery area where I have started flats of celery, beans, sweet corn and cucumbers. I have stocked up on heirloom cabbage, potato, carrot and beet seed strains known to do well in my climate zone. I dedicated another area to indoor propagation of leafy greens like bib lettuce, bok choy, kale and spinach. This area also hosts basil and cilantro plants. A variety of other herbs are already established in the back yard.

This COVID-19 has been a real eye opener, a paradigm shift for sure. I am fortunate to have so much land and square footage, much of which has spent the last eight years as an empty echo whilst I sit in my dark blue office and trade, then sashay around town eating at Detroit’s finest restaurants. Something had to change I suppose. I am embracing the hermit/quarantine life. My goal is to grow at least 50% of the food I need to maintain uber male health.

Anyways…anyways…models remain bullish heading into next week. Look for Intel earnings Thursday afternoon to tell a story for the broad markets. Until then, volatility compression and sideways drift is the forecast from your old pal Raul. A stock picker’s market.

Raul Santos, April 19th 2020

Exodus members, the 282nd edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

Comments »

Imagine not having faith

No morning NASDAQ trading report today. I appreciate anyone who followed along this week, it was a strong performance. I want to use my blogging window this lovely Friday, with NASDAQ futures bumping up against major resistance at 9k, to discuss a most critical component for obtaining consistent profitability—faith.

Faith is what makes you take the next signal from an algorithm after it suffers a major draw down. Readers of the Exodus Strategy Session know I trade every signal generated by the Exodus mother algo. Unfortunately, the algo flagged me into a 10-day index long on February 27th. That signal ran through March 12th. Then on March 12th the algo fired again, meaning I had to hold my TQQQ position until the end of March 26th. This resulted in about a -40% loss:

A lack of faith may have resulted in my passing up the next signal, which happened in close succession. The next signal triggered on April 1st, on the Fool’s Day. A superstitious man or perhaps someone who watches cable news may have been even more spooked and less likely to take the April one signal. That trade just closed out yesterday. The result:

You see? Back in the green, baby.

From preschool to eighth grade I was educated by pastors and church moms via the Lutheran parochial school system. I am privileged in this way, having usurped public schooling until college. My high school was a college preparatory school operated by Catholics. Nuns and brothers and priests. I was inside a theological brainwashing network for quite a long time. I witnessed hypocrisy so closely, it would make even a garbage man blush. I watched a pastor having an affair with the kindergarten teacher, both of whom were bound by matrimony. Racism. Lots and lots of racism from folks who huddled onto wooden pews 3-5x per week under the premise of divine love and the holy trinity—a belief that god is in everything via the holy spirit. Hating their own god, you see?

Fortunately my best friend, who you may know as ROBETO BREGANTE, was exceptionally bright at a young age and well versed on carbon dating and dinosaurs. He knew the scientific method and loved to challenge authority. We began debating the Christians, on everything, starting in about third grade.

By fifth grade we were both moved to another Lutheran school after our parents assumed we were being unfairly punished, to the point of pleasure, by our school. Such good boys we were, certainly they could pay a different group of pastors and church moms to treat us better. The next school was no safer from our logic, our data, our scientific beliefs. We were regularly kept at opposite ends of the chapel, and on more than one occasion I was made to sit in isolation in the janitor’s closed for the entire school day, about eight hours. One of the times I fashioned a noose from some rope I found in the closet. Just to work on my knot skills but boy did that spook them.

I could not be made to have faith in their King James Bible because I need objective means of believing something. This is what makes trading a better fit for me then judeo christian pursuits . I use massive spreadsheets and mathematical models to prove beyond doubt, via a statistical significance, that something is true.

I am grateful having flown so closely to the christian sun and for having elders that encouraged me to question everything, otherwise I may not have developed the critical thinking needed to thrive in our modern world.

When it comes to long-term investing, it lean on my christian foundations to understand how irrational human beings are. Christianity is the most successful business in world history. What did it do? Simplified religion. One god, one book. A few simple rituals. Defined SIN.

Okay now what entities most resemble christianity? Tesla, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and so on. You buy these names and you never sell them. You don’t use fundamental analysis like an idiot. You use blind faith. Just like the Christians.

That’s all I have time to say for now.

Cheers to never panicking out of your faith when the going gets tough.

Raul Santos, April 17th 2020

Comments »

NASDAQ holding the highs, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 1:30am New York when price spiked higher and took out the Wednesday high. From then-on we balanced above the Wednesday high until a slew of economic data came out at 8:30am (initial/continuing jobless claims slightly worse than expected, building permits better then expected and housing starts worse than expected) sending price spiking a bit higher, making a new high on the Globex session but stalling a few points below last Tuesday’s high. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Wednesday high.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down near the Tuesday low. If you recall, Tuesday was a trend up. We spent the day slowly working higher, but unable to fill the overnight gap. Instead the low volume node separating the two distributions that formed Tuesday acted as resistance. We ended the day tapping on the midpoint from above.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8698.50 and continuing higher, up to 8748.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8591.75. Look for buyers down at 8583.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ down a quick -170 after being trend up Tuesday, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 3:30am when sellers stepped in and drove price lower. That selling campaign lasted until about 5:30am and moved price down through the Tuesday midpoint. Sellers then reemerged and as we approach cash open, price is moving down near the 8500 century mark.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing production at 9:15am, business inventories and NAHB housing market index at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap up and drive higher. This action closed the open gap left behind on 03/06 and after a bit of flagging/consolidation along the weekly ATR band price continued higher, eventually closing the 03/05 gap and ending the day near the highs. Of note, the daily VPOC never managed to shift up into the upper distribution.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap up to 8695 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out around 8650 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down to 8428.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Zoom meeting with the Fed on deck, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher unidirectional overnight, continuing a buying campaign that began about an hour before New York lunch on Monday. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of the 03/06 range.

On the economic calendar today we have Federal Reserve banker Bullard set to talk about COVID-19 via a Zoom meeting at 11:05am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. We kicked off the week with a slight gap down. Buyers resolved the gap during an open two-way auction then we formed a tight chop, chopping along and eventually going range extension down in the late morning but never taking out overnight low. Instead the auction reversed, slashing through the midpoint and then using it as a support pivot to push neutral. We rallied right up to the 03/10 open gap and closed near high of day here.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher. Buyers tag 8500 and two way chop ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 8500 setting up a run to tag 8567.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and tag 8400 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »