I Trust My Money to Good Stocks: You Should Too

Ladies, gentlemen, please…allow me a moment to address the market.

You may not make it down to the Raul blog often, but I reside rather gingerly on the front page of iBankCoin.  I know that my continued existence in these hallowed halls amongst the finest strangers the internet has to offer depends on one very important matter: banking coin at criminal rates.

After exhibiting complacency two weeks ago Friday I have been on the receiving end of a severe bludgeoning via shares of PPC due to a salmonella scare.  I regret to inform you I was forced out of this position today and took a large loss.  Let’s talk about large losses.

This was a ten percent position and I stopped out at twelve and a half percent.  Math:

0.1*0.12=0.012

I lost 1.2% of my account value.  Part of me wanted to ride the stock into earnings for the glory.  I envisioned myself riding into town on a chicken-drawn chariot with plebs laying olive branches on the street.  Upon reaching to town square I would be handed the ceremonial staff to perform a blessing of the populares, restoring balance to the social classes.

But in a rather stoic manner I cut the shares loose.  Because the truth is public perception is fickle.  Many of you are simple, as am I, and lack the resources or time to give a company a full fundamental shake.  I know inputs to making chicken meat are down across the board, but so does anyone else who analysis this company.  Elon Musk set a new standard with his quick assessment and public response to the Model S fire and now I expect the same from all companies.  I get Old Wall Street silence instead.  So PPC and its shareholders can go fly a kite for all I care and I’m back in the sewers, hungry as ever.

I cut LEDS too.  Perhaps the critics were fiddling with their catalytic converters when I scaled 10% profits one day into my campaign.  That would justify tossing tomatoes in my direction when I cut my net position for a scratch.

Finally, I cut SCTY.  Let’s say you love bath salts but all you can find on sale is old fashioned Mexican speedball.  You decide something is better than nothing and in your constant urge for instant gratification you gobble like ten Mexican speedballs.  But since you want that bath-salt-bug-eyed rage fueling your body while you chew arms off hobos, you find the speed only providing an uneasy feeling in the pit of your stomach.  That’s why I cut SCTY for a 3.4% loss.

My final move was buying a modest allotment of AMBA shares.  Morgan Stanly flip flops and the investment community dumps Ambarella?  GMAFB.  Well actually, you did give me a break because this was an opportunity to get back on board stock in a great company.  I liked it at 22, why wouldn’t I love it at 20?  I am a buyer of further weakness.

Now I have 22% cash power to buy some blood and a stable of stocks fit for an entrepreneur.  Largest-to-smallest friends, largest-to-smallest like always:

GOGO (huge), LO (+15% what?), ONVO, WLT (Walter), RVLT (a love/hate), AMBA (SAIL!), SFM, CREE, SLW, F, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and the big O

That is a hot look.  I like this basket of stocks.  I have a few names I want to add to the pot to get back to full long exposure but I am content to ride into tomorrow’s spooky trade with some cashish. The Fly’s ALJ has the look, FB is making ATH after hours, and YELP is at a slight discount.

FINALLY: YOU SHOULD COME INSIDE 12631.  There is a free trial tomorrow and Friday ONLY.  I do my best work in there with little-to-no shenanigans.  I would love to see some of my twitter buddies in there.  The password for the free trial will be released at midnight, so you vampires can come inside tonight and kick some ideas around and us normal folk will see you bright and early.

http://youtu.be/c-P5GpkPrk4

Odds Morgan Stanley has a clue about AMBA: zero

If you buy AMBA because of this post your child will take up base jumping, and you may lose money

don’t be like me

SAIL!

The indices pressed to new highs overnight in a rather one directional manner starting around 8pm EST.  The action has pressed the /NQ into very short term overbought territory and my expectation is to see a rotation lower early on, perhaps even premarket.

The action has left behind a four handle gap on the /ES which may entice lower prices for the fill.  Yesterday’s gap higher did not completely fill and was one of the tells to stay long.  Often times you here tips like don’t fight the tape or go with the flow but never a clear indication of what exactly to look for.  Yesterday had two tape/flow visual cues.  The first was the failure to fill the gap lower.  The second was when sellers could not produce a range extension lower.

Range extension refers to price travelling above or below the high/low print of the first hour of trade.  You do not need market profile charts to note this occurrence.  All you need are 30 minute candles.  Most days only see range extension in one direction.  Therefore, when price never extended lower yesterday you would be fighting the tape by attempting to initiate shorts.

I have highlighted a scenario on the following market profile charts as well as key support levels:

I went into the market and initiated additional risk today.  I bought a full size SCTY long and paired it with a smaller sized SFM long.  The SCTY long is a component of watching the TAN ETF and another chapter in my Elon Musk admiration saga.  I have always been a harsh critic of solar technology but if Elon gives it the Midas touch it will power cities effortlessly sooner rather than tremendously later.

The balance continues on the Nasdaq and S&P although significant amount of pressure is being applied to the sellers all day.  Price continues to linger on the highs without much in the way of a rotation lower.

While all of this is occurring my very hot, top-notch momo stocks are SILENT.  Like, scary move silent.

Adding high profile SCTY to a basket with ONVO, RVLT, lots of GOGO, and a few other menaces (LEDS WTF?) was like smoking a Newport (extra LO) whilst laying on a crate of dynamite to stargaze.

The combustible matter below my person will either propel me to the stars or leave no remains except a dusty crater in the night.

Tomorrow…I hope

I’m sick of waiting for my outcome.

94% long
Excellent symmetry in this video:

Overnight the /ES held firm and appreciated a bit while the /NQ recaptured the losses incurred after the AAPL earnings.  Both indices are trading near their respective highs as we come into Tuesday’s trade.

The nature of our current trade is balanced and becoming quite mature.  The market is nearing a point where it needs to press the extremes of balance to determine if in fact value needs to migrate higher or lower.  Early on the buyers have a chance to press into an already committed seller (see prior posts) with their positioning early on today.

I have highlighted 1765 as the final stand for the profiled seller.  Should this level give way, I believe we are in store for another exploration higher.  I will be watching trade around this area closely and also how some of the well set up stocks behave if we trade into these levels.

There’s plenty of support down below, but the most significant level to my eye is the mezzo century mark at 1750.  Should the VPOC at 1750 fail to hold prices, we may see a swift rotation lower as the large seller becomes emboldened.

So today is simple:

– Mature balance

– Ready to test extremes

– 1765 and 1750 are your extremes

– TRADE ACCORDINGLY

I have highlighted a few scenarios and important price levels on the following market profile charts:

The old market of stocks is becoming ever more selective while the indices teeter like humpty dumpty atop a gigantic wall of worry.  The markets are rewarding patience…lots of patience.  I continue to profile a large short who is hard at work in the S&P and I am beginning to feel her palms sweating.

Two earnest attempts were made by aggressive sellers today to press price lower.  I see there footprints all over my undersized 24-inch Samsung screens.  First came the huge order absorption Friday afternoon and then today two aggressive, menacing attempts at driving price lower by hitting the bids HARD.

Both times the damn dip buyers presented themselves.

Now Monday is over and Apple is trading modestly lower as are the /NQs yet the stodgy S&P is lingering.  It is lingering like your friend’s friend at the end of the night.  It is lingering like the drunken buffoon after last call.  The S&P is lingering like a stubborn snail on your porch. The longer the S&P persists at lingering, the warmer the room becomes where the big short resides.  The walls get heavy.  The sounds of colleagues chatting and printers printing erupt into a confusing noise.  Suddenly there’s no air in the room but in reality their breathing has stopped.  Their brain is failing.  In short, anxiety is building for the massive short.

Or it isn’t.  This is all a subjective analysis of a hypothetical seller being profiled by an odd stranger on the internet, yes?

I sold that USO long, taking a 5 percent loss.  It looks decent but it was stupid of me to tie up so much money in oil when there is crack to smoke and chocolate to eat.  I thought parking 10% of my assets in the name would be like a voluntary break from the action to keep me honest.

Well, it kept me honest and lost me money.  That is honestly dumb.

I resisted the strong urge to buy SCTY today although I should have.  After hesitating briefly, it appreciated by a dollar and I was no longer interested.  At least that is what I tell myself today.

More GOGO had to be purchased.  This stock has comported itself with the utmost decency even while other momentum stocks flung solid body waste at one another.  It was already a 10% position last week, now it’s nearly 15 my friends.

I still have this PPC chicken stock and corn, soybeans, grains, and any other GMO puke they input into these foul beasts is cheaper than ever. This is without question the overplay for the underlay with the salmonella news as a backdrop.

Anyone who follows the LED industry knows our available and investable companies have been tossed into The Fly’s fag box.  RVLT continued being a cerebral pain by trading down.  It went down, okay?  It is down for no reason in particular aside from having a loose corporate structure and managing to eke out 500% plus gains on the year.  You may continue seeing profit taking in this wild stock.

In short, my cash is up and I am concentrating my risk where the momo is chasing.

When you feel like selling, buy MOAR

I bought more $GOGO shares making it my largest position.

If you buy GOGO beacause of this post you will spend your next holiday stuck on the tarmac next the the big guy and a crying/sick baby.  And you may lose money.

Picking up right where we left off, we observed what appeared to be a large seller at work Friday afternoon.  It seemed as if the seller backed off from the offer toward the end of the day which finally allowed the immense amount of pressure on the offer to push price higher.  The buy flow carried a bit of follow-through into Sunday evening’s globex session, but as America wakes up the index futures have pared back their gains and are trading back in the whale’s wheelhouse.

The resulting action has left a few thousand contracts worth of excess above our current trade price levels.  It will be interesting to see how the market behaves early on in relation to the range from 1756 – 1754.  If price trades these levels early on during RTH we can gauge the seller’s conviction early on this week.

The trend is still up, the indices do not often make swing highs during the afterhours, and there is plenty of support below.  Therefore it is prudent to respect the trend of the timeframe you are trading when observing these very short term market activities.

I have highlighted some key price levels and drawn out a few scenarios on the following market profile charts:

First off, I suppose it was a matter of time before RVLT would lurch its dull dagger into my gut once CREE hit the bricks.  Today the Grim Reaper paid me a visit and took a swipe at my groin region.  This is classic, no-news-but-the-past-setting-in sell flow.  I have made my money on this stock, and I have made money on this ugly chart, oddly enough, because I have conviction in the industry as a whole.

As promising as the market for LED lighting is my temptation is increasing to bootstrap the entire idea and do it myself because I am afraid these companies may have a different vision than I do.  This is a digression I am completely unequipped to pen on Friday at 4:40pm.

The important matter which had me making the hard decision of cutting longs was the massive absorption of orders I saw taking place throughout most of the day.  Absorption on a larger scale than I have seen in quite a while.  And it occurred in a curious place—just above a consolidation formation.  Tons of buy flow pressed on the market, and the seller only relented slightly into the bell.  I captured the following screenshot with cumulative volume delta on the lower pane and price on the upper:

It looks like a massive and patient seller which, once you see that type of absorbtion the next thing we look for is aggressive bid hitting with price dropping swiftly.  By selling WDAY and ADHD I am attempting to get out in front of that occurrence.

And to be quite honest, I should have “done sold” ADHD days ago at about these same prices.  That trade got away from me and I had to sit through way too much risk to get a more reasonable exit point.  It could have kept tanking taking Raul aka Pesce Piccolo down the toilet with it.

WDAY could still win, I really can’t say with any certainty it won’t but I was respecting the whale currents I see.  I almost cut WLT too but I will give it a little more of a chance.  If that spinning top candle confirms lower, I am out.

CREE is going to be the soxhlet for a while because momentum has left the building.  Let everyone forget about this name then consider accumulating.  Good news is Chuck Swoboda made his monthly DC payment to keep the LED revolution’s gears greased.  Here he can be seen presenting the ceremonial briefcase of cash (the real money gets wired) to our Commander in Chief:

I still have some Ford stock and I like where this company is headed but I never imagined it trading so poorly.  It needs to come to life soon or I may take my interests elsewhere.

I bought more GOGO today and I did so too soon and with plenty of vigor.  Sometimes when you have a ton of conviction in a name you just want more.  But this action has been benign for quite some time and it may offer some real horrorshow brutality for longs next week.  I can just feel it.

PPC is my largest position now, hehehe.  Earnings next week and I like where price sits currently.  I suppose I’m feeling lucky with this one as I sit minus ten percent.  May the chicken gods award my complacency with chicken rain.

USO needs to appreciate from here or it is toast.

LO can do no wrong.

ONVO made me and plenty other fine folks on iBankCoin good money this week.  That was a lot of fun.

I perked cash up to 15% after one day of being 95% long.  Have a great weekend.

Just in time at 1754 our seller showed up.  Put them on there heels and here they are.  Either they hold on or get rolled on.

Keep an eye on this 10 am swing high: