I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,589 Blog Posts

Last Week’s Trades

Anyone who is truly a fan of my blog or twitter stream gets bombarded with a lot of talk.  As amusing as it is for me, and let’s be honest this whole blog game is for my own betterment, it’s not easy to read my posts and swim upstream to find my trades and timestamps.  And I like my readers and I entirely expect you’re reading my carnivorous internal dialogue with the intent to bank some coin of your own.

By no means am I suggesting you buy or sell anything with me, but by reviewing actual trades an actual trader makes you may build your own understanding and thought process.

Without further commotion, here are my trades of the week and why:


New Year’s Eve the market fired a cannon pointed square at the faces of shorts.  I had two cute short positions with a cute thesis wrapped behind them: short Macy and Saks.  I had a shit entry on Macy and it wasn’t hard for the market to squeeze me out.  I buckled (no BKE) and covered Monday.  This loser was a result of a bad entry and I knew it as soon as I put my position on.  Macy’s below $39.50 is still a short in my opinion.

January 2nd came and my long bias had me stoked:


I wasted little time, buying up shares of Zynga and Citigroup before 10am.  Remember early and often on the pumps, that way we can scale on the rip and lower our basis.

Into Tuesday’s close, I didn’t like the squeezing I was receiving in Saks so I covered.  This stock doesn’t appear as directionally biased lower on the charts, but it’s still a short worth considering on weakness.  Both Macy‘s and Saks are part of my thesis on disappointing consumption activity by the upper-middle class.


No trades, but Ragin and I were eyeballing tickers starting with the letter Z.  Being at the late end of a rally, we were looking at the Zee stocks because they rally last (I’m kidding).  But I’m not kidding about watching the Zee’s:


I sold my ATML.  I joke and say it’s a sacrifice to the rally gods, and in many ways it was.  But also this stock has been a beast.  When it was showing weakness during a strong day I closed out my runner on the name +23% from my December 11th purchase.  I still think the stock want MOAR, much more so I will keep my eye on it over the next few weeks in search of reentry.

Next I scaled 1/3 of my Zynga position.  We hit a logical level of resistance, an area where we should always fire a bullet at the market.  If you’re only holding a runner (final 1/3 after scaling) and you’re downright bullish you can keep the piece on just be sure to assess your risk.

Finally we saw Zillow make its move, tossing up a big middle finger to the shorts and jerking higher into the bell.  The stock pulled back just enough to let me in during the final minutes of the session.  My phone was running slow as shit while I rode a taxi through tunnels but I managed to buy the $29.40’s and ride a rip into the close.  I like being long this name into the gap even though the overall markets are insanely overbought.  It may get worse before it gets better on this trade, but things can get slippery inside gaps.

Those were my moves and the thoughts behind them.  Now I’m off to find a speakeasy, good day.

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Keeping Spirits Up Amongst Cretins

After getting completely obliterated by “the wrong agent” over at $SAVE this morning (may your grave be cold and wet asshole) and tossed into a wretched holding pattern which set my day back, oh about seven fucking hours, I received a blessing from the stock gods.

Perhaps it was my morning rally sacrifice, hoping to find favor in the eyes of Zenu:

Perhaps it was chasers getting their chase on, perhaps it was buying high probability chart patterns with sexy seasonality patterns and #SHOMPOLOGY stats.  Really none of these things matter.  What does matter good people is the fat ass pile of coin I pursed today.

After putting my feet back on the ground, I did what all to often has led to losses—I started trading from the back of a taxi cab.  But fuck I had too.  The plan going into today was to get in front of my computer premarket, that got fucked!  Do I moan and cry or adapt?  Exactly, I made a sacrifice and started iPhone trading.

Every time I checked my phone $ZNGA was up.  I wanted to scale, but there it was flirting with its daily high, so I let it simmer while I slept on the foulest shit scented carpets in Detroit.  Then I flew the fuck to the only city worse than mine, Baltimore, turned my phone back on while we drove around on the runways, again Zynga is HIGHER and so are my banks.  Zillow was sitting still but looking mean.

Then I finally get to my destination around 3pm and find myself with a few moments to actually gather my thoughts.  Mind you $ZNGA has become a #TENBAGGER at this point.  I manage to scale a piece off three cents from the highs.  Then I buy Zillow and it rips into the close.  All.too.good.

Maybe I could lose sleep this weekend?  Negative, sleep not on the docket.  I may get poleaxed Monday by these gay short sellers getting cute with INSANELY OVERBOUGHT SHITTY BANK ticker $C, but fuck them.

All I know is the market isn’t this easy often.  When it is, you press your fucking positions and bleed these fucking turnips dry.  Use the 9ema, it’s our good friend.  Enjoy your weekend and assume I’m enjoying mine enough for the whole fuck lot of yous.

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Grinding Higher

Despite overbought conditions and some anti-QE jawboning from The Fed yesterday, most of the market continues to grind higher.  A pat on the back form Goldman was enough catalyst to lift shares of Citi Group to even loftier overbought levels.  And overall the financials continue to behave well and it could be keeping a steady bid in the marketplace.

I’m losing coin on my LULU shares and zooming out to the weekly chart it looks like momentum is slowing to the upside.  I may regret not selling today, but I want to see about getting better prices early next week.

We’re not seeing the island reversals many expected and the small caps continue to rock higher suggesting risk tolerance.  My only action today was to sell my ATML runner as a sacrifice to the rally gods.

Completely Aside:  Spirit Airlines went out of their way this morning to catch my spirit and funnel it into their clunky jet engines, rendering me without flight.  The kind people of Southwest who seem to love me have shoveled my remains off the tarmac and sent me on my way.  Rot in hell Spirit Airlines, trade to zero.

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ENJOY: A Really Simple Explanation of Today

Today’s trade was looking very constructive early morning, taking out the important resistance I highlighted this morning and building value higher after a progression of TPOs marching higher.  Early AM longs were working and solar was ripping dicks, which is a highly speculative sector.  The charts were setup something perfect and the fact I didn’t even turn them an eye in this administration is somewhat disturbing.

Let’s be frank with each other, this market is overheated.  The dick ripping shorts received yesterday was not medieval torture, it was a 100 degree samurai sword simultaneously de-cocking and cauterizing the wound with surgical precision.  We may have to check with @HalfBloodPope but I don’t even think antibiotics are necessary.  And come on, The Fed had to pump the breaks into the fast approaching weekend.

I think this market “wants higher” but I also think people who want in are sidelined and ready—charts all marked the fuck up.  Lunchtime buyers are the bag holders until proven otherwise, here’s where the inventory is priced.  Good day to you:

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Hanging Out at The New Party

The overnight session traded almost entirely in the low volume void of yesterday’s profile from 1452.50-1454.50.  Overnight digestion up at these levels tells me nothing occurring overnight throughout the rest of the world was of greater impact than our political theater.

Levels we can monitor and cue off of from yesterday include the high volume node at 1457 where the market squeezed up to into yesterday’s close to gauge as resistance and the reactionary aggression of the sellers.

Below, should price sustain trade below 1451 we could expect a quick trade back to the middle of value at 1448 then a test of the volume peak at 1445.75.

Seeing today’s price digest yesterday’s gains within the range (inside day) would be impressive.  More importantly, I want to see how today’s profile shapes.  I’m looking for cues of balance, seller aggression, or the coveted initiative buying.  Let’s see who wants to work these areas hardest.  I’ll play my positions accordingly.

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Taking Flight

Traders who came into today’s trade net long are celebrating a massive move higher.  We’re seeing overbought conditions and traders scaling long exposure all across twitter.  Traders who joined the party after the open are mostly flat, and maybe a little nervous.

Saks (SKS) started firming up into the closing minutes and I closed out my short position for a small loss.  Small position, small loss.  Overall I’m still not constructive on department stores but I’ll wait for their technicals to deteriorate.

Aside from dumping my short, my only other actions were to buy C and ZNGA.  Neither name banked any intra-day coin, but I’m betting short term ZNGA will and intermediate term C WILLx2.

I was up over 10% on CEDC this morning only to see half of those gains erased and also caught a large fade in SINA , but I’m not sweating it much.  This may be a sell the news event and I may get stopped out, but I’m working to build into some core positions and HOLD. Then I’ll take the guns out and gun sling using only 20% of my portfolio, tap dancing across mine fields whilst smoking a COHIBA for your enjoyment. 

I like 2013 so far.  It’s my busting out year, I’m not sure I’ve brought this to your attention yet, but it’s divisible by three.  And years ending in “13” are only divisible by three every three hundred years SO YOU’S BETTAH USE IT WISELY. Take flight, be water. Take flight, be water. Take flight and be water, like a blizzard cloud.

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Let it Simmer

The strong gap higher this morning pulled back once and pumped higher in a very violent manner.  Since then, we’ve seen the S&P gently fade off 8 handles from the high.  I used the early morning dip to purchase shares of Citigroup and Zynga.  Both of these buys have moved below my basis, but have provided no reason to sweat.

The morning chatter has all focused on this gap and hypothesizing how others are positioned.  It’s really good fun to speculate on the positions of other investor’s books and it’s an interesting piece of context.  I’m still cueing off the SPY chart I posted this morning, and where we are.   This gap is pretty ugly and gaping, and it makes the chart look more like an individual stock’s earning surprise than an entire index.  It’s very possible we work to backfill these levels, but first the bears need to recapture 143.50 on the SPY, a price which would reclaim about 50% of the candles from the prior swing high.  It’s my bias line for the time being.

Buying Citigroup up high here today is at risk of riding peak-to-trough, thus I only bought a half-position.  I won’t know if I’m wrong on the swing unless we lose $39.00 so I had to position accordingly.  This also gives my dry powder to buy more should we see a pullback materialize and stabilize.

Interesting weakness in department stores and other apparel companies like LULU who saw their early pop faded hard.  I’m not making too much of these developments, nor any developments until I see how the afternoon trade pans out.

As a swing trader, the close is everything.  It finalizes or negates any chart setup on the daily timeframe.

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100 Bear Coffins

Happy New Year and it’s time to address the important matter of a market with a deal.  I’m currently 40% long, 2.5% short, and cash heavy.  The stance made sense considering the headline risk coming into today’s trade.  Now I must pick spots to add long exposure.

The anatomy of this move could have many participants caught short or downright underexposed.  Pare that with the jostling of many allocations and the environment is ripe for some big moves higher.  I’m using a Keltner channel on the SPY ETF to give me an idea of the range we could see in the intermediate term.  Expecting an open near 144.50 I see room to the upside:

I’m not going to get too fancy, I have a few names I like and most of them are my current longs: ATML, CEDC, FB, GS, LULU, and SINA.  I intend to ratchet up my net exposure by adding to a few of these names, while searching out a decent entry on C and few short squeezes.  I also have to manage my way out of this SKS short.

The cash market hasn’t had a chance to react to this market, so I’ll watch the first half hour of trade to determine aggression.


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2013 Predictions

Media will continue to report mundane news with a big surprise pitch.

Algorithmic trading will dominate the market more than last year.

The occasional glitches will be scolded, unless the market jerks higher.

Winter will be hard to shake in the Midwest and Northeast.

Cats will continue to dominate video and page view counts on the internet.

Tea will get way more popular.

Synthetic drugs (think bath salts) will make national news, again.

My 2013 stock of the year, Citi (shitty) bank, will perform an esoteric defiance of gravity:

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